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So Many Hoaxes; So Little Time

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

Greece---The Hoax
 
“Some people can read War and Peace and come away thinking it's a simple adventure story. Others can read the ingredients on a chewing gum wrapper and unlock the secrets of the universe.”
 
                      -Lex Luthor
 
Regardless of the officially manipulated news stories; the truth of the Greek re-financing is not what we are told. Greece only managed to get about $20.7 billion in real buybacks done. They were shooting for around $41 billion and so the program was actually a failure. They have now extended the offering period which has just one goal which is to get the Greek banks to put up the rest of their holdings which will cause a further loss for the Greek banks. This is all politically mandated of course by the Troika and so the deal will get done and perhaps Greece will get its next aid tranche but it is really just Peter robbing Paul. You see, after the deal is completed then the Greek banks will issue more bonds that will be guaranteed by the nation and then pledged at the ECB. This will not be announced of course and the Troika/Greeks will “welcome, herald and praise” the success of the program and turn around and utilize the scheme that I have explained and so increase the debt of the country one more time while making a valiant effort to fool anyone who will listen. The financial reality is that a restructuring was only done on $20.7 billion and so the goals of the Troika were not met at all but the long string of hoaxes will continue unabated. The debt of Greece then will actually increase NOT decrease but the trick is accomplished under the cover of the ECB and since it is bank debt guaranteed by the Greek government it is then a contingent liability and not counted as part of the debt to GDP ratio for Greece and so the myth of the gods residing on Mt. Olympus continues. Mr. Draghi knows the truth and Ms. Lagarde knows the truth and their credibility is whacked once again but the game continues and will continue until some monkey jumps from the cart or some monkey stops feeding the horse that pulls the cart. I also note that every politician in Europe proclaimed that the Private Sector would not be hit again after the first round and yet we were because the governments of Europe cannot deal politically with writing off their holdings of Greek debt and while investors are expendable; their jobs are not. All of the King’s horses and all of the King’s men could not put Greece back together again but if the people of Germany, the Netherlands, Austria et al want to keep tossing them coins and keep up the charade; so be it.
 
Italy---The Italian Cliff; The Bunga Jump
 
Jimmy Olsen: “What are you writing Miss Lane?”
 
Lois Lane: “An ode to spring. How do you spell massacre?”
 
Monti is going. He will try to pass the budget first, maybe yes/maybe no, but the technocrat is departing. Monti has been more than that however. He has been the official spokesman for the Troika in Italy and those days are coming to an end. All herald the return of Bunga/Bunga and the politics of spaghetti, parmesan cheese and the wines/whines of Super Tuscany. Senor Berlusconi is already hitting out at the German Masters and his language will get stronger I fear. If the tactic is to be to incite the Italians that they do not become “Germanized” then the European Union is about to get politicized in a very real manner. The division of the South and the North is going to take a dramatic turn in the months to come and the split between the haves and have nots of the European Union is going to be put to the test. Testy days lie ahead!
 
America: To Jump Or Not To Jump; Now That Is The Question
 
Superman:  “I'm here to fight for truth, and justice, and the American way.”
 
Lois Lane:  “You're gonna end up fighting every elected official in this country!”
 
Obama is doing the only thing he knows how to do well which is to sing the siren’s song of “tax the rich” and enchant the lower classes with the melodrama of righteous indignation. In politics it is often “them versus us” but it is quite aggravating to watch him in this performance. We cannot afford the social programs that we have now and until and unless Obama is forced to recognize this rather obvious fact then no solutions will be found. The Democrats are engaging in triviality and while it may play well in the poorer parts of the country where people do not understand that the government cannot support them forever from the backs of those that do work; the ad infinitum  lethargy of “tax the rich, tax the rich” just is not a realistic answer to the problems which have been created over the years. Maybe we will have to take the “walk of shame” before someone wakes up and realizes that we are falling into a fiscal abyss.
 
In the meantime the Fed is printing and likely to print more. The $45 billion in mortgage purchases continues and while Operation Twist is about to end it will get extended in all probability. The Fed will create more demand than supply and you may expect lower Treasury yields, more compression in spreads and little of value will be found in Fixed Income especially after the first of the year. There has been and will be some selling now due to the probability of pending tax increases but when that is over then you may expect another massive bout of compression where both people and institutions in each and every market will overreach for yield. With equities getting some help by the printing at the margin it may be a different story as fundamentals can no longer support the price/earnings multiples. With Europe in a recession and Japan about to meet the same fate it will not be long before both America and China find themselves in the same predicament I am afraid and so a global recession is likely in the cards after the New Year.
 
“Faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. Heck, I would be happy these days if one of our political leaders could just look at a building and proclaim that it was one and not pretend that it was an Indian tepee that needed to be financially and environmentally protected!”
 
                        -The Wizard

 

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Mon, 12/10/2012 - 10:43 | 3048418 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

regarding the "tax the rich" thing ... wasn't Bush tax-cut suppose to end anyway? Therefore isn't the debate of "tax the rich" really the debate about whether to extend Bush tax cut, and if so at what level? So in the end all Obama is discussing is not "tax the rich" but "not tax the rich"?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 10:58 | 3048458 CH1
CH1's picture

You're not taking the words of politicians seriously, are you?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:01 | 3048471 unrulian
unrulian's picture

to save us all some time....how about a list of things that are not a hoax.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 12:55 | 3048830 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Lunar Landing.

Not fake Nevada landing, but real Sputnik landing on darker side.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 10:45 | 3048420 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Join the global warming cult.....we'll save you.

 

It's freakishly expensive but we'll drop the level of the ocean 1" over the next 100 years......of course you won't be around to see it.

 

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:40 | 3048476 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

I have and can survive the loss of money, and I know we are all going to die.  However, I would prefer to not be sickened or killed by toxic gas. 

According to FERFAL, not a hoax...

I'm 33 and I've seen two volcano ash events, and one wildfire burning that left the city covered in some for a month. I missed this one, but it would have been my 4th air related SHTF had I been there.

 

My relatives in Bs As tell me its pretty bad. Not only people with itchy eyes and respiratory problems, but people were even vomiting on the streets.
 

FerFAL

...and from Bloomberg.

Buenos Aires - There were reports of a mass evacuation ordered of the city of Buenos Aires, after a chemical container exploded, covering the Argentinian capital with a huge toxic cloud.

 

Apparently it wasn't that bad.
 

The container was reportedly still engulfed in flames after the explosion and initial reports suggested that it was filled with either pesticide or mercury, both of which are dangerous commodities under such circumstances. A later report by Univision News on Twitter states that the chemical was a pesticide or insecticide.

 

More here..."This is why gas masks are a Must Have"

Got gas gear?  The Israelis all do.  Some folks living or working near chemical plants or rail yards keep the following close at hand...

Gas Mask - Scott Promask 40 1 for $140
Gas Mask Filter - Scott 40mm CBRN cannister 4 for $350 
NBC Suit - Zytron 300 Coverall w/ Hood tan 1 $75
NBC Gloves - North Mil Spec Butyl Gloves 1 for $28

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:11 | 3048431 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Cue the "we're shocked...shocked we tell you, because most developed nations' economies + China's are in far worse shape than we had previously estimated" anal-cysts on cnBSc & Bloomturd. It's already underway with Italy and and the Netherlands today (not to mention that Canada's housing starts misses an even artificially low threshold, and that China and Japan are in real time contraction).

Italy has now been revealed as being in absolutely dire straits (and France is on deck).  That's a huge development (not that their economy is terminally ill, but that the main stream media is now openly discussing it).

But fret not global citizens, because the illustrious federal reserve that either is or is not a quasi-governmental agency of the U.S. depending on who is asking and why, is going to buy more bonds, which will fix the structural collapse in aggregate demand that's ripping the economy to shreds. /sarc

The sugar high is officially dead, the patient is now tolerant of any dose of heroin, so let gravity and the laws of physics, which can be but merely delayed, and never denied, reassert themselves.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 10:52 | 3048436 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

All your hoaxes are belong to us...

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 10:53 | 3048438 falak pema
falak pema's picture

a grunt from grant disguised as smart deduction from pseudo injection of olive oil into tarama salad. 

The olive sauce is injected so as to save the banksta brigade; scions of capitalism, lost in derivatation levitation. Translating that into plain english seems such a challenge for Gen Grant. 

A grunt a day keeps the depression doctor away; grunt on.

Draghi couldn't  care less; unless Berlu, if elected, pulls the rug under his fiat feet.

Then its run for shelter time every one! 

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 10:55 | 3048451 toady
toady's picture

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:04 | 3048475 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

On a long enough timeline.......

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:00 | 3048461 ApollyonDestroy
ApollyonDestroy's picture

All hail the return of our Dear Weader!

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:00 | 3048462 youngman
youngman's picture

I get very very depressed if I try to keep up on all the Macro information......so I just keep it to my Micro info....and that is how much beer I have in the refrigerator...and sometimes that depresses me..

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:11 | 3048498 toady
toady's picture

Not enough, or too much?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 14:12 | 3049086 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Seriously?  Is there ever too much?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 15:53 | 3049422 toady
toady's picture

I find that 200 bottles overcrowds my storage area, and the wife gets pissed if I have more than 20 or so in fridge at any given time.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:01 | 3048470 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Mark Grant has had the debt buyback properly analyzed from day 1 (which was only a week or two ago).

The bigger picture story to understand . . . we all do . . . but ignore sometimes.  It is that the world has changed.  It's a New Normal and it's never, ever going back.  The system is saved by government decree/action about 10 times per year.  

You cannot short equities because you are at the mercy of decree.  You cannot be long equities because at some point, and we all know this, a government attempt will fail.  Simply that.  They save the world over and over again, but they only have to miss their attempt once and you'd be wiped out.

Don't trade.  Be out of equities.  Forever.  There is no other choice.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:43 | 3048599 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

As for PMs.  I cannot believe the govt will not begin confiscating them when gold hits $3000 and silver $75....just can't.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 13:56 | 3049041 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Govt's don't have to confiscate to prevent gold from being significant.  They only need to tax transactions.  

If they tax transactions involving gold at about 60%, within a matter of hours there will be none.  That means there will be no reported price of gold.  No one will be able to transact with it because there will be no published price -- and far more powerful, no one will know if their gold counterparty is from the IRS.  So they can't transact using it.

Own it all you want, gov't will say.  Enjoy its appearance.  But if you engage in commerce using it, pay your taxes.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:44 | 3048603 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

@CrashisOptimistic

Yes I completely agree. It is not simply a matter of "well if you are so bearish why don't you get short and stay short?"

This is what I have a hard time with when speaking to people. You cannot have your money on deposit somehwere at some brokerage place. You cannot be long. You cannot be short. GET. OUT. NOW.

You are correct, there is no way to do this other than GET OUT.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 12:25 | 3048739 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Couldn't aagree more.

A long bank holiday is also now becoming a very real possibility.

The Bank of Matress is looking better ,and better, however lumpy.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:33 | 3048564 From Germany Wi...
From Germany With Love's picture

Germans wont rebel, repeat: wont rebel, unless unemployment is rising, government spending is cut and at the same time news agencies report hidden or overt transfers of billions to the south.

There is one thing the outside world needs to have clarity about when it comes to Germans: We're no revolutionaries, we're kinda opportunistic by nature. Germans rarely rebel, they only do when things get really bad. For now, the voters give the political establishment the freedom to do whatever they think is best, that is the prevalent attitude. Of course, by the time the people here understand the calamity that the elites have led them into it will be too late by far.

So any waiting for german taxpayer rebellion is an uninformed view. When it comes to Germany, just watch the economic data. No deep recession, no rebellion.

If Germany slides into deep recession though, all bets are off.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:34 | 3048569 Eddy Vluggen
Eddy Vluggen's picture

You should have taken the time to do your homework :)

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:51 | 3048633 SKY85hawk
SKY85hawk's picture

The Tylers should remind the readership that Obama signed the 2011 "deal that caused the Fiscal Cliff"

In the past, the new President would move to solve America’s problems in the beginning of his term. He then hoped that voters would forget the pain before the next election cranked up.

 This time nobody remembers who started the fiscal adjustments, so nobody can be blamed for pain from changes that are actually necessary. 

For once Congress DID THEIR JOB.

Very clever!

Ok, Obama did not Veto it.  Who is surprised?

 

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 11:40 | 3048583 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Mr. Grant.  I am sorry...but I am tired of waiting for the crash that never comes.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 12:34 | 3048756 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Rome wasn't destroyed in a day.

Historically, this is going to be very quick, and far from painless.

Optimistically we have two years,or this shitshow could collapse tomorrow.

Hedge accordingly.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 13:05 | 3048862 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

@smooth:

You underestimate the devastation that's already occurred in the "equity markets" when we're back at 2000 levels in NOMINAL terms, back to 1990 levels in REAL terms-- adjusted for inflation yet BEFORE CHURN TAXES (that's 20 years of nothing or FAR WORSE negative returns, with total and complete wipeouts-- i.e. to zero or near zero on stocks that no longer exist, hence don't show up on the "indices"; survivorship is another aspect of the rigged game-- for many during periods such as 2001, 2008, and prior times).

And if you think that's bad, what happens when markets swan dive again even after receiving those dozens of trillions in central fractional reserve fiat injections.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 12:49 | 3048813 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Yeah, me too. Thankfully, I never invested based on the "world is ending soon" premise.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 12:29 | 3048754 HoaX
HoaX's picture

Who called?

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 14:28 | 3049125 JR
JR's picture

“Obama is doing the only thing he knows how to do well which is to sing the siren’s song of ‘tax the rich’ and enchant the lower classes with the melodrama of righteous indignation. In politics it is often ‘them versus us’ but it is quite aggravating to watch him in this performance… the ad infinitum  lethargy of “tax the rich, tax the rich” just is not a realistic answer to the problems which have been created over the years.” – Mark J. Grant

Great post! Grant. Great title.

The banker oligarchs can’t make their centrally-planned economic system work any longer. Monti is quitting because the banker system of trying to take over the politicians and fixing the real economy with fiat money bailout doesn’t work. The news from Japan is that the bankers just can’t make Keynesian economics feed the people.

The Fabian’s failed system to transfer the wealth of the producers to the Third World to facilitate Von Rompuy’s banker plan for ”world governance” and banker profits, particularly by moving waves of the Third World into the US and transferring the US manufacturing base to Third World low-wage countries, means that eventually lots of these third worlders will have to re-cross the border because there won’t be enough welfare and jobs in America to sustain them.

In short, the time is coming in America where people will have to work to qualify for welfare, the reason being that there isn’t enough money for 50% of the people to feed off the other half; the people with the money already are pulling back in rebellion.

Or, as Peter Schiff said this past week, the majority voters do not have the right to steal my money even though they voted for it.  This is the crest of the grassroots’ sentiment that is rising in America. This is the tipping point at which America’s true middle and upper middle classes are going to say: We’re not going to work harder and harder for less and less just to pay for other people to live royally on free welfare.

As for the truly “rich,” they won’t pay any more taxes, anyway; they’ll simply move their investments overseas where they can keep their money from confiscation by D.C. politicians. As for what happened in England with confiscatory taxes, it won’t happen here because the American system won’t stand it. You can’t have corporate success if there's no sharing of profits.

In short, backlash is a comin’.

Mon, 12/10/2012 - 16:20 | 3049541 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

And oh my God, there are so many of us to feed.  If things fail all at once, it is going to look like the potato famine everywhere.  Haven't you seen the etchings of raggedy starving women with dead babies in their arms and ghostly little children hanging on their skirts?  How can we watch the children of our neighbors' starve when we have food?  

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