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Goldman Q4 GDP Forecast At 1.0% Following Trade Data

Tyler Durden's picture


So just what is below "stall-speed" growth in the New Normal? And with 48 out of 49 economists now predicting what we said would happen back in September, namely that the Fed will go all in with QEternity+1 and take its balance sheet to $4 trillion (and then $5 trillion in 2014) yet firmly holding their 2013 year end GDP forecast at 2.0%, lower than Q3 2011's 2.7%, does it mean that even $1 trillion in additional flow and stock from the Fed can barely keep the economy above the Old Normal stall speed definition? What exactly would happen if the Fed were to not monetize hundreds of billions in debt? We shiver to even think.

From Goldman:

The October trade deficit widened, but by less than expected. Both imports and exports declined month-over-month, consistent with a potential impact from Hurricane Sandy.


1. The trade deficit widened in October to -$42.2bn (vs. consensus -$42.7bn) from a revised -$40.3bn in September. The wider deficit was accounted for by higher real petroleum imports and terms of trade changes, as the real trade deficit ex. petroleum narrowed.


2. Both exports (-$6.8bn) and imports (-$4.9bn) declined month-over-month, indicating a lower overall level of international trade. However, Hurricane Sandy likely depressed overall trade during the last several days of October on the East Coast. U.S. exports to the Euro area fell 8.7% year-over-year, consistent with weak growth or recession in many European countries.


3. We raised our Q4 tracking from 0.9% to 1.0%, as the real deficit was narrower than we had penciled in. The October CAI, however, dropped from 1.6% to 1.3%.


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Tue, 12/11/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

which means it will come in at 1.5% and be heralded as an unexpected bullish sign

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Blame Sandy for everything, weather In CA, snow in the East, the fiscal cliff!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment New England Patriot
New England Patriot's picture

Let's pitch this thing into a dive and gain back some airspeed.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment caconhma
caconhma's picture

Now we have computers. We (I ment them) can have any numbers they like taking into account that lately all numbers are imaginary (or bogus if one prefers this definition).

Finally, we have fraud all all levels of our society. It is not any different from what takes place in Greece or Spain with just one exception: there is no way either Germany or China will bail out the USA.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 00:04 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

That would work great if we had altitude.  This close to the ground it would be fatal.  Zirp fail.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:52 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yeah, fuck Sandy Weill.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Fuck you Goldman and your goal seek fucking Muppet data. May all you fucks get wiped off this fucking planet.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

I like it. From now on let's refer to all goldman calls as "muppet heat seekers". They'll be pissed all the way throgh the limo ride to Masa's.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Should be good for another 20% on the S&P.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

And still it's: Buy on the bad news and buy on the good news

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 10:58 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture


Tue, 12/11/2012 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

The whole debt can be wiped out by the trillion-dollar coin solution and the government can unleash another round of debt piling from scratch.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:06 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

That's what the Fed is for. Do you actually think they have money to buy treasuries and other assets? As dumb as it sounds that's what the Fed does in essence.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:25 | Link to Comment Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

This is how the coin looks like. I particularly like the nominal value expressed in exponential form.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment khakuda
khakuda's picture

How come no one ever points out that you can't really debase away your debt with inflation and money printing if the money printing allows Congress to keep piling on ever more debt at no apparant cost?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 00:17 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

It's an illusion that has worked swimmingly thus far.  The cost may be hidden, but there IS cost.  It will be tangible soon. 

Remember, a 1% rise in the finance rate = $150,000,000.00 additional annual interest expense to us taxpayers.


Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:05 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

And meanwhile, the S&P is up over 0.7% nudging 1430 and the Dow is up over 0.6% at 13,250 ish...


Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:22 | Link to Comment mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

And gold getting smacked lower just before Bernanke comes with some more QE.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:10 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

It seems as though every negative post on ZH is good for at least another three S&P points.

Reality is what you are told it is. Most Amerikkkans believe in things they can't see (i.e., God), while they don't believe things they can see (i.e., 60 degrees in December in Pittsburgh, but there is no global warming).

Dumb people=dumb country.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Fishthatlived
Fishthatlived's picture

Global warming? The warmest December (avg temp) in Pittsburgh was 1889. In fact the 7 warmest were all before 1932.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 12:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Below average cold here....1 problem is taking 1 temperature reading from a city and extrapolating it out to cover the whole world. 

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:16 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

I ask the FED. What's the point? You can't juice the market forever. When you stop, there will be a severe price to pay as things revert to normal. What makes it insanely worse is that demograhics won't be in your favour for at least 20 more years. By that time, you'll have screwed two maybe three generations.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They dont care, theyre the Maniacal Monetizers and they want to monetize some more debt (apparently) before they pull the rug out and Corzine everyones last penny. Won't be long.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:18 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

monkeys and computers are  showing the love for the bad news.  take that dow and shove it, I aint buying that bullshit anymore! sing along!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 11:53 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

No bootybumps for Leper-cons.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Bearish News
Bearish News's picture

How would GDP look without the ~1.5% boost from the social security tax cut?

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

But Chinese exports are expanding!!! Well... that's what China says...

Hang on... but the EU is China's biggest trading partner.

Oh right... the EU is ordering 9% less from the US and instead spending that with China.

I will sleep better tonight

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