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Have We Seen The Peak Of Employment?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Authored by Lance Roberts of StreetTalkLive,

 

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Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:10 | 3054006 hooligan2009
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funny how Dire Straits songs, twisting by the pool, money for nothing and industrial disease spring to mind

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:22 | 3054084 Westcoastliberal
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That's about where we are hooligan.  All great songs by the way.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:13 | 3054039 surf0766
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Peak union employment

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:28 | 3054115 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

Peak employment for everybody but government workers and firearms manufacturers - for completely different reasons. The economy is circling the drain.

 

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:44 | 3054199 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Would you be surprised to know that the per capita rate of gvt. employees has been in secular decline since 1962? Or equivalently, as a %age of the workforce...

Naw, stuff like facts really gets in the way of your version of reality....

http://www.opm.gov/feddata/historicaltables/totalgovernmentsince1962.asp

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:17 | 3054347 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Tell Jessie at the rally when you see him

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:40 | 3054419 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

No comment on the data, you know, the facts; I learned to expect as much from the likes of you...

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:40 | 3054431 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Communist

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 23:59 | 3054657 Flakmeister
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My vote for the lamest comeback *ever* after being pwn'ed....

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 06:11 | 3055057 jeff montanye
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or as that other, even better known communist john hussman notes: our massive Federal deficit has temporarily driven corporate profit margins to historic highs about 70% above their norms even while wages as a percent of GDP have reached a record low.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:40 | 3054438 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

Federal government employment is only part of the government employment picture.State and local government employment have grown significantly since the mid-1950s.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=dIC

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:23 | 3055949 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Sounds like you have an issue with you local legislators.... The point I wanted to make is that  the number Federal gvt. employees have been in secular decline for a long time....

And as for all those bullshit rightwing calls for "Law and Order" in 80's and 90's, well, the bill has come due...

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 01:09 | 3054794 3.7.77
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That's right, one ex union job should now be good for two at half price in Michigan. 

Can you say living wage.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:03 | 3055978 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

You do know that Union rates were over 30% when we had the strongest middle class in the history of the world - since the reagan mantra of Kill those demon unions the rate is now under 10% of the labor market.

Funny how delivering 90% of all new income to the top 1% doesnt drive Demand!
Who would have thunk that?

Eat the Rich - I hear the old buzzards taste quite nicely when simmered for a day or two.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:20 | 3056040 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Funny how that works, eh?

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:14 | 3054041 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

Jobs will eventually have to return.

There is hope.

Who will wash President Obama's car?

Who will clean Michelle's house?

Let's be optimistic.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2012/12/yesterday-dragon-lady-made-oysters-and.html

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:29 | 3054122 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

I'd pay someone to piss on your stoop....

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:56 | 3054254 VisualCSharp
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Just another idiot plugging his shitty blog.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 23:08 | 3054524 DavosSherman
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I'm heartbroken at the fluff, each day I see crap like this I ask myself if the best blog sold?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 14:19 | 3055957 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

It was top-tier not so long ago... The election cycle brought out the John Bircher moonbats....

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:23 | 3054055 darteaus
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Employment is a lagging indicator - duh.

Use capacity utilization for a concurrent indicator. Going back 45 years, whenever it's been below 80%, we've been in a recession - except for one false indicator about '88.

We hit 67% in 2009, peaked at 79.2% in July, and subsequently turned down.

Turn out the lights; the party's over.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 08:09 | 3055141 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

The party's over
It's time to call it a day
They've burst your pretty balloon
And taken the moon away
It's time to wind up the masquerade
Just make your mind up the piper must be paid

 

--Nat King Cole

 

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:21 | 3054077 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

One of the terrible consequences of the government spewing out incorrect and unrealistic numbers on employment and a host of other pieces of the economy is this, no way to tell what's really going on.

IMHO based on my observations we never left the 2008 recession, in fact things have generally gotten worse and deeper.  An entire shitload of companies have gone or are going out of business.  I think many of you guys would agree with me, especially if you do b2b.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 06:17 | 3055060 jeff montanye
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you make several useful points.  also please note that the lags until recessions are declared and, hence, losses until, are generally expanding over time.  next one could by a doozy. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:11 | 3055998 Woodyg
Woodyg's picture

We only 'left' the recession - aka positive growth - due to continued Financialization of the economy - take out the increase in the banking sector and I'm sure we'd still be officially in a recession.

In fact we probably never came outof the 1st bush recession - back then Banking used to be less than 10% of the economy -now over 40% - that extra 30% of gdp is Malinvestment - meaning not only are the numbers not accurate as Real Growth but its actually Negative growth as it incentivises Malinvestment, Financialization and FASCISM. Heck that makes our gdp actually around 10 trillion - which is what we Feel and Know on Main street.

At the rate we are going there will NEVER be enough jobs for those that need it to survive - the truely big question for our day is what to do woth the Excess idle Labor - Historcially the answer is to start up a nice WW and fertalize the soil with 50 to 100 million Muppets.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:21 | 3054079 1C3-N1N3
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Employment will not recover. The "temporarily embarrassed future millionaires" have been replaced with permanently cocky future homeless.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:27 | 3054116 Flakmeister
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Who would ever had thunkit that Peak oil would imply peak jobs...

Union or otherwise....

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:33 | 3055561 sessinpo
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And who would ever had thunkit that oil hasn't peaked, but prices haven't gone up like Peak Oil extremists. Instead, we still have oil prices below its peak. In other words, the market is telling peak oil extremists, you are wrong. But you hold on to your doctrine, can't accept truth or reality. That is one huge character flaw of liberals - not being able to admit they are wrong, which is why they repeat their mistakes, even when historical and current facts tell them they are wrong. Man made global warming extremist also fit in this group. Currently we have the fiscal problem and the bigger government to solve everything falacy.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:32 | 3055852 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Do you even know what Peak oil is? Because it sure as hell ain't clear from what you just wrote....

As for AGW, it is pretty clear that any science at odds with your ideology has to be wrong...

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:40 | 3054170 Cdad
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And I can hear it already...how "surprised" The Street will be when the actual recession is officially announced.  Of course, and by then, the market will have already "priced in" most of it.

Put me down for economic contraction, official style, by the second Q.  Put me down as selling short/scaling in now, however. 

Gonna be a good day to be a grizzly crashing out of the scrub....especially tomorrow, I suspect.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:54 | 3054177 DavosSherman
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WTF is this crap? 1,113 words to say this:

Unemployment 22.8 percent, last depression 25 percent and government workers then classified as unemployed.

PS and just fucking maybe, if you want to talk unemployment it "might" be a spectacularly fantastic idea to mention what the employed are raking in.  After all, consumers need money and to get that they need a.) jobs or b.) title/payday loans since the banksters aren't giving out HELOCs today.

Who the fuck are you, ilene's brother?

 

From Jim Quinn's fine blog The Burning Platform some great Charles Hugh Smith work.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/?p=44394

38 million earn less than $10,000 per year.

50 million earn less that $15,000.

61 million earn less than $20,000 annually.

Simply put: 100 million wage earners, or 2/3 the entire workforce, earn less than $40,000 per year.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 04:00 | 3054966 Body of Lies
Body of Lies's picture

This doesn't sound too good

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:53 | 3054229 Pairadimes
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Bullish canned dog food.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:05 | 3054271 DavosSherman
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Canned dog food, cardboard signage, used tents, and rusty razor blades---FY2009 37,000 people committed suicide, first time it beat out vehicle deaths since cars became popular.

Our suicide rate is now 10 per 100,000, in the last Great Depression it was 22 per 100,000.  And if this fucking clueless dickhead wanted to talk bogus numbers he'd have done an article on suicide rates.  Poisoning is up 128 percent, many prescription drug OD's are suicides being swept under the rug.  Chances are our suicide rate is 2x published.

Fucking pathetic.

The Federal reserve members are mass murderers, war criminals.

The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it.~Albert Einstein

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:39 | 3054424 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Peak oil will cull the herd....

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 23:11 | 3054532 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

"Peak oil will cull the herd...."

+1

Likely, the more I give this thought---with water poluted and pissed away in fracking nat gas wells to make up for the lost easy to get to oil and Asia's demand on oil.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:58 | 3055692 sessinpo
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I can just imagine you during the 14th century.

Flakmeister "But dear sirs, the world will come to an end because of peak oil"

Reply from the king or queen "What the hell is oil?"

 

In other words, you peak oil extremist, the world CAN actually survive without oil. I know it is hard for you to imagine because you have lived with oil products all your life, but for thousands of years, humanity didn't have oil and SURVIVED and even PROSPERED.

I strongly you suggest you change your erroneous argument to peak clean water. At least then, you might get some respect. Otherwise, each of your posts is just a joke, characteristic of the poster.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:37 | 3055869 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey dingleberry, what fraction of US oil consumption is a direct input into the Ag sector? Do you have any clue?

And yes, the world will definately survive PO and AGW... A large part of H. Sapiens will have their work cut out for them though....

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:07 | 3054306 q99x2
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However, as history has shown, the damage to investor portfolios will have already been done

I believe if you check the market indexes back a year you will find that the relationship of market indexes to fundamentals is now meaningless. If you care not then check out the market tomorrow as the words of the annointed are bestowed upon mechanical algos.

Me peckers gone limp. I've lost confidence in the markets. Prosecuting fraud is my goal.

The power of mass prayer shall be tested against the ChairSatan on January 20, 2013. Join in to fight fraud with fire and brimstone. Praise be to the Lord.

Great article and great work behind it.

 

 

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 23:05 | 3054507 ZFiNX
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If you could see the shit-students my public university is producing, you would answer this headline with a definitive yes. We got openings but no geniuses to fill em. The average american worker's skill is diverging from the rest of the global citizens at an exponential rate.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 23:48 | 3054634 bjfish
bjfish's picture

American workers?  We don't need no stinkin workers.

Uncle Bam is gonna pay off our mortgages and send us all a check every month. By quitting our jobs, we'll be able to spend more time spending money ... 'cuz thats what makes a strong economy.

You should all get more edumacated.  /sarc off

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 05:25 | 3055025 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

That money is not for us, it's for our corporate masters. Now those higher prices for everything you need (bilfation), that's for you.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 00:23 | 3054709 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Another recession coming?  Shocking.  Wake me when something interesting happens.

What relevance to the markets?  Surely by now we can all see there is none. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 02:01 | 3054864 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

'Employment' is a meaningless STATISTic. What matters is production and purchasing power. Govt can create 'jobs' for awhile but will have not only nothing to show for it, but to even do so it had to confiscate capital that would have been used efficiently in the process.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 05:50 | 3055040 deerhunter
deerhunter's picture

I hunt a 57 acre parcel grain field woodlands 45 minutes by freeway west/northwest of the Chicago Loop.  Yesterday from the treestand I notice a blue tent in the woods between me and the Metra train station.  Two men,  fireplace,  big beers and temporary housing it seems.  Or not so temporary.   Tent cities coming I think and if you have eyes to see much more than that as well.  My wife and I used to kid about how skinny we would be if we had to depend on my hunting and fishing skills to survive.  Hmmm?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:01 | 3055222 Bad Attitude
Bad Attitude's picture

Here is an interesting article about how to survive while homeless - advice by someone who did it. It's not a feel-good article.

http://www.donrearic.com/homeless.htm

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:05 | 3055731 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

Tent cities have been around. It's just that most people don't know about them for various reasons such as:

1. Tent cities are typically in places that are not highly populated and are away from people that have money.

2. Cities tend to discourage their uprising and when they can't prevent them, they push them into areas not highly populated and away from people that have money (voters)

3. Temt cities don't work well in urban areas, work better in more rural areas

4. Most local news outlets do very little in reporting of tent cities unless some tragedy occurs

5. Tent cities get very little national attention.

 

Just do a google search on tent cities and you'll be quite surprised.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 07:35 | 3055114 DollarDive
DollarDive's picture

Does it count as employment when you're working for the state for no pay.... only  to payoff your overdue tax bill ? 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:29 | 3056084 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

A little tidbit on Egypt:

 

Egypt Importing Gas for First Time as Exports Disappear

Egypt, a natural-gas exporter to markets from China to Chile, is set to become an importer for the first time just as the new government needs energy shipments to revive an economy weakened by civil unrest.

Gas producers including BG Group Plc have curbed local production even as demand from electricity plants jumped. That’s prompted the government that took power after Hosni Mubarak was ousted to plan a liquefied natural gas import terminal as soon as May. Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the world’s biggest provider of LNG, has begun studying how to supply Egypt.

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