It's Not The Economy, It's The Deja Deja Deja Deja Deja Vu Pre-FOMC Rally, Stupid
Today's rally marks the fifth of the last six pre-FOMC days with a strong performance for stocks (the one sell-off into an FOMC meeting this year was when consensus did not expect anything - post QE3 and pre-election). The current differential between Treasuries and stocks is as wide (and expectantly hopeful) as it was when we were 'gifted' QE3 - and that marked the top in stocks for the year so far. It seems heading into this meeting, consensus expects the QE4 Treasury-based fill-'er-up that we discussed the day QE3 was announced and given the crush in earnings expectations, the broad market's current year-highs in P/E valuations just looks remarkably over-optimistic. With today's heavy block size seen at the highs as the short-stops were run, one can't help but see this as professionals lightening up into retail hope as opposed to looking to extend the rally.
10Y vs S&P 500 into each of the last six FOMCs... (and lower pane shows a 'model' view of current equity richness to bonds near its highs of the year)
Meanwhile - valuations on the major US equity indices are pushing back to the year's highs with this latest rally... incredible... with the Russell already the year's highs!
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