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The 'Other' Confidence Indicator

Tyler Durden's picture


Presented with little comment, but as we head into another FOMC meeting, we remind all those 'recovery is just around the corner'-ites that the market's expectations for how long the Fed will be on hold has never been higher at around 35 months - certainly doesn't suggest an expectation of things getting better in reality any time soon.



Chart: BofAML


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Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

You sure thats not years on the left hand scale ?

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:07 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

+1 - 35 years is more likely imo

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:15 | Link to Comment Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

"how long the Fed will be on hold has never been higher at around 35 months"

Duration of Mismatch is central problem of FOMC. Raise Treasury rate, Bank is lose reserve capital in fleeing deposits, further is contraction of credit. Shadow credit is also contraction, so currency is to stop to flow and banking system is SOL.

ZIRP Forever!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:18 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

But wait! I read that the Fed has an exit plan. LOL

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:02 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

End of 2015 then?

And a hefty .25% hike.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There will never be a rate hike again. Any rate hikes will blow up the fed's balance sheet.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

Exactly, and not just the fed's.

ZIRP will end when the currency implodes, and not one day sooner.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 02:57 | Link to Comment Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Bernanke is talk smart talk, Dual Mandate, blablablab, but is real situation, how do you say, "fool in". Federal Discount Rate permanently is ZERO - cannot go up or will break bank, but is cannot go lower. Lend long, borrow short, cross line and can't turn back.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

You forgot to mention that the chart is in log scale.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:32 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

I wonder how the Bank of Japan's chart looked since September, 1995?

FYI, they have not had an interest rate above 3/4 of 1% since that time, or 17+ YEARS of ZIRP.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 19:03 | Link to Comment ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

Let's be honest.

We're in a depression.

We've been through the biggest bubble in human history.

It's gonna take a decade to dig ourselves out.

Sucks.  But thems the facts.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment JackT
JackT's picture

A decade from now or the one that has already passed?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 03:01 | Link to Comment Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Decade passed is dig hole, next decade is dig out.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 20:34 | Link to Comment Hohum
Hohum's picture

ZIRP & QE are covering up the fact that industrial society cannot pay for itself.  Better hope for some nuclear fusion, boys!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 20:53 | Link to Comment haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

You mean Eugene? He not wit us no mo.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 03:34 | Link to Comment TulsaTime
TulsaTime's picture

ZIRP is the final cancer the Fed has bequeathed this system. So no risk exists at the fed to corp level anymore? Where does anything expand in a peak/full world?

Nobody has a way to manage a contracting system, yet we have declines to deal with in water, net available energy, natural resources, etc.. All we hear from anyone is growth, and it is not forthcoming.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Aegelis
Aegelis's picture

I think I've ridden on this rollercoaster before.  I know what happens when we get to the top.

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