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'Technical' Ramplosion Ends With Stocks "Off The Highs" And Credit "At The Lows"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Within a few minutes of the day-session open, US equity markets decided today was the day to test the Election highs and QE3-announcement lows. Starting with a little jog, the chatter gathered pace as weak data was dismissed, eyes kept focused on the prize of running the stops above the Election highs leveraging the pre-FOMC 'habit' and hope of a fiscal cliff resolution. This was not to be. VIX was the leverage tool of the day early and led (beta-adjusted) stocks higher until the explosion of volume at the highs with shorts giving up amid a plethora of big blocks suggesting pros selling into that auctioned strength. The straw to break the rally-camel's back was Harry Reid's comments and sure enough we rotated all the way back down to the day-session open's levels. While all this excitement was occurring, risk-assets twiddled their thumbs in general, snickering the impetuous youth of the exuberant equity market and the pundits admiration that 'well, the market knows that a deal will be done'. Into the close, S&P futures ramped up to VWAP settling their at the day-session - only to extend a little after the close.

 

Quite a day in S&P 500 futures...

 

Vol was the leverage, high yield credit the reality and stocks swung from euphoria to reality on and off in the afternoon...

 

Across broad risk assets - this equity dislocation was very obvious...


 

It made some sort of 'technical' sense that we would auction up and retest these levels but the professional activity up here (signaled by the blue bars h/t@eminiwatch) tend to suggest this was not a start but an end of a run...

 

Treasury yields pushed higher on the day but chopped around with stocks in the afternoon.

 

Commodities saw early weakness flatten out, Oil recouple with Silver on the week and then Gold and Silver limp higher all day... Gold/Silver?Copper all closed red on the day

 

By the close of S&P 500 futures, the market had crept back up towards the highs of the day in a stealthy VIX-crushing way - as the volatility index ended the day -0.5 vols at 15.57% (its lowest in December).

 

AAPL had a good day - but closed well off the highs - pulling back to VWAP by the close.

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

Bonus Chart: Ridiculous Closing ramp with perfect DEJA VU from yesterday in terms of volume, average trade size, and performance... last few minutes of yesterday and today...


 


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Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:29 | Link to Comment Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

rampalooza

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment flacon
Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:12 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

Sell everything tomorow

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 01:47 | Link to Comment CPL
CPL's picture

Definately blood in the streets...all the x3 Bear etf buying has been going batshit with it going into it's cyclic slump.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment eyealwayzwin
eyealwayzwin's picture

I feel it my duty to correct:

the ES ramp around 11:00 was not a STOP RUN but rather a large SPX trade (courtesy of JPM) requiring market makers (I participated as one on the other side of this order) to hedge via racing to market with a combined 13-15 THOUSAND ES Mini buy orders. 

Obviously, in days of old this size order may have been absorbed with an uptick (or two), but in this barren wasteland of algoliquidity (and front-running/racing), it takes no less than 4.00 to fill the hedge. 

Hope my comment is useful. Peace

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Yawn

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:32 | Link to Comment michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

lets see if any selling actually sticks tomorrow... imagine the blood bath if Bernanke does nothing tomorrow !

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Here's my wild assed guess for tomorrow:

 

Step 1:  Bernanke says he's taking is foot off the gas tomorrow, stocks will tank, but gold and commodities tank even harder.

 

Step 2:  John "Boner" announces a deal after hours, stocks scream higher the next day, erasing more than half of tomorrow's losses

 

Result?

 

Stocks up.

Commodities down.

Interest rates down.

 

Central Banking made easy.

 

Look no further than today, the "worst of the worst" stocks like AIG and TXN which has warned like 5 consecutive quarters rallies the hardest today.

 

Another product of "Animal Spirits", thanks to the "Interventionist and Activist" Fed.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Playing with your weiner all day is no way to go thru life, son.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

WE BOW TO THE GREATNESS THAT IS ROBOT_TRADER AS HE BLESSES US WITH HIS MAGNANMIMOUS RETURN TO ZH.  

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Here's my wild assed guess for tomorrow:

Step 1:  RobotDickweed says he's making big bucks on his stock trades, but actually only has a $140 Schwab account, and even that tanks hard.

Step 2:  RobotDickweed, depressed, spends day on basement computer shaking hands with Mr. Happy to internet porn, screams about his fictional stock profits the next day, erasing any residual interest that anyone may have had in reading his babbling, trollish, permabullish posts.

Results?

ZeroHedge trolling made easy.

Look no further than RobotDickweed, the "worst of the worst" trolls.

Another product of a stock-pimping animal, thanks to the brainwashing of the interventionist Fed and corrupt and dying financial status-quo.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment Whoa Black Barry
Whoa Black Barry's picture

Except that robo called it right on consumer discretionary this year, and bullish worked in the wider market too. Basically he was right and ZH bears (that includes me) were wrong. Not early. Wrong.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:27 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Even a blind stock pimp can find an acorn once in a while.

But how did his incessant pumping of NFLX early last year go, for example?

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:49 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

Welcome back Robo ... i guess we should have expected you  after a 95 pt. rip in the spooz - lol!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Is it time for the "God Bless us, everyone!" quote yet?

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:08 | Link to Comment FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Hows your mom doing?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 01:31 | Link to Comment Middle_Finger_Market
Middle_Finger_Market's picture

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH Bernanke not printing? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA HAHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA 

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Ramplosion... I like that.  Was this from the same guy that coined the term ginormous?

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nice price action in the Roach Motel [SPY] after hours.  Looking truly desperate to hide that selloff post H. Reid comments.

Attention Greater Fools...please report to the AH session to receive your govt. mandated shares of the Roach Motel.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must.....finish....at no loss.....must...pump....back to highs....

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:37 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

so lifelike

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Looks like Kev' is back to his old trick of selling vol.  Commodities just sort of sucked today in face of hysterical equity excitement  The tired, predictable political idiots schedule their talk shows conveniently during the market (loaded with their SPY options, I assume), so it is a baby task to trade SPY with the TV on.  As for Bernanke, expect him to deliver exactly what the TBTFs demand of him: 85b in pure monetization per month.   Would expect a little PM love from that, unless JPM wants to screw with the Turd heads.  

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Rampupalooza!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:41 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'll just laugh tomorrow if Bernank hints at the slightest bit of un-accomodation and all the roaches all panic flee for the exits. 

Of course, we know any roach of importance already has the speech in-hand anyway so tonite theyre probably just unloading to the greater fools on the AH clownramp.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:50 | Link to Comment bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

From 1st pic - REID,mkt down - and then - ? - let me give you an answer - UPTREND.You fail to notice uptrend for about 4 weeks.Blame it on algos if you cant draw a trendline.

Mark your post - UPDATE - ES surge to intraday highs as "Algos hunt the stops" or make another complaint/Excuse.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

are you filling in for Robo-tarder? apparently he's back so you can go away now...

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:51 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

Warren Buffett argues a "significant" estate tax "promotes democracy by slowing the concentration of wealth and power."

PLEASE USE THIS PULPIT YOU HAVE TO CASTRATE THIS SON OF A BITCH!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

A pulpit? My, that's quite a blunt instrument. I'm afraid that would only smash the testicles, rather than remove them.

Carry on!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

My great grandparents, grandparents, parents and myself worked like dogs to accumulate some wealth. It's mine! It's not Warren Buffetts or that fuck Obamas...It is mine!! To leave to my sons because it is mine! Not theirs! and the fucking taxes were paid on every dime of it every step of the fucking way! I hate this mother fucker..hate him, all of them, every single one of them!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Low volume on the way up with a weird tape, then suddenly, the hammer comes out and the tape starts to behave normally. There must be some weird shit happening in those dark pools.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:55 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

Name 1 thing that will be "fixed" upon any "deal"...just 1

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

The facade, duh.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:00 | Link to Comment bullmkt
bullmkt's picture

bears soon to be fried and toasted and get their balls squeeezed soon.

sorry ZH doom and gloom.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 02:11 | Link to Comment tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

find it interesting there's suddenly been a surge of antagonism of the 'doom & gloomers' across the interwebs.

Summers & Sunstein LLC must be back in bizness.

nudge, nudge...

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment dvsteenk
dvsteenk's picture

have a look at CAC40 futures after US close... unreal!

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 20:06 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Look at Yahoo Finance global stock market indexes.

Almost half of them are now sitting at 52-week highs or higher.

Unreal,.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=82126773

 

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment 1eyedman
1eyedman's picture

like the first 'budget deal', aka our current fiscal cliff claven, then the QEternity....we are in a sell the news market now...

its used to be, mkts stop falling on hopes of intervention, rise for about the first 1/3 1/2 of said new deal, taper off as it ends, fall, start hoping for another.....

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 20:56 | Link to Comment eyealwayzwin
eyealwayzwin's picture

I don't deny the existence of the stop-hunt/mysterious ramp, but feel it my duty to correct you and state that 

the ES ramp around 11:00 was not a STOP RUN but rather a large SPX trade (courtesy of JPM) requiring market makers (I participated as one on the other side of this order) to hedge via racing to market with a combined 13-15 THOUSAND ES Mini buy orders. 

Obviously, in days of old this size order may have been absorbed with an uptick (or two), but in this barren wasteland of algoliquidity (and front-running/racing), it takes no less than 4.00 to fill the hedge. 

Hope my comment is useful. Peace

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 21:16 | Link to Comment P-Mack
P-Mack's picture

Woe is me. The whole world is trying to f*ck me. Why can't the market fall and share my misery?

Why?

Because markets rise and markets fall... sometimes just because it is time.

The tin foil hat brigade and the megalomaniacs will not be at the party because they can't recognise that there are 2 sides to the market. Sadly, ZH is full of these people. Sad for them.

Tue, 12/11/2012 - 22:42 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

What if Buck Fernankie decides to put a cattle prod to the Fiscal Cliff negotiations? THAT would be nice.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 00:18 | Link to Comment omi
omi's picture

Last few min push could be levered ETFs rebalancing by buying more stocks @market.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 01:34 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

It's actually going to be quite amusing when the 'fiscal cliff' is solved and the market tanks thanks to the fleecing machines.

 

 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:17 | Link to Comment P-Mack
P-Mack's picture

Yeh. You don't get it.

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