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Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008
It has been a while since we looked at the Baltic Dry Index, which when normalizing for the excess glut in dry container ship supply (such as right now - 5 years after all the excess supply in the industry - has long been normalized), continues to be one of the best concurrent indicators of global shipping and trade. We look at it today, moments ago it just posted an epic 8.2% plunge, crashing from 900 to 826, or the biggest drop since 2008! Of course, conisdering the collapse in global trade confirmed in past days by both Chinese and US data, this should not come as a surprise, although we are certain it will merely bring out the BDIY apologists who tell us that supply and demand here (like in every other Fed-supported market) are completely uncorrelated.
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SPX JPYUSD spread suggests reversal very soon.
Stocks at record levels pricing in 1000 virigns and Gold and Silver are the only buys here
Do you accept hand jives as collateral?
They accept Funky hand jives only.
You misspelled 'jobs'.
Hand or blowing variety?
Bullish! I heard that The Bernank was going to expand asset purchases to commercial ships!
Global Shipbuilding Outlook – 45% of Shipyards Have No OrdersBy Sanjeev Rana, Deutsche Bank
Just get the metal, dealing with just one virgin is a headache.....let alone a 1000 of them.
First it's 72, now 1000?
WTF?? Will they leave any for the rest of us?
Inflation dude.
I've got to get me one of those new 3-d printers that everyone is making such a fuss over...
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/142265-the-first-open-source-3d-print...
Save a lot of time and effort and just go to the bar at last call... the real thing is better...
http://www.gizmag.com/staples-mcor-easy-3d-printing/25284/?utm_source=Gi...
Sure; there are plenty:
http://img180.imageshack.us/img180/8705/72virgins01yo4.jpg
eewwwww...
Nay, Hedonics adjustment.
First it's 72, now 1000?
WTF??
inflation
Dude, they'll get to face 1000 VIRGINIANS!
Fiscal Cliff Superstorm Sandy Republicans!
Hard to compete with Amazon's free super saver shipping. Amazon can't even do it.
it appears the BLS has made a "seasonal revision" to the BDI. It is now only down 4%. It would seem they are telling us that a "recovery" has just been discovered.
BLS drops, markets rise - SOS
Holiday sales will be spectacular.....
Already covered sales will be up 10% on last year, moneys free and easy.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-11/better-benefits
Lol your a tax payer at xmas, be lucky.
...at Cabela's
way overpriced
True, but both of them near me always seem to have long lines at the firearm checkout - much longer these days.
I suspect there are years, perhaps decades, of "juice" left in the Central Bank arsenals to keep the world afloat economically. I don't see much long term import in such measures as the BDI. HOWEVER...the actions of Central Banks is creating both a perception and thus a reality of just how sick the world is. The citizens of the world have yet to see this thing as terminal. When they do....yikes.
The "juice" isn't actually in the CB arsenals...it's in the brainwashed minds of the sheeple who continue to have blind faith in the CB arsenals.
Very true. Which is why, at some point in the not too distant future, truth telling will be an act of terrorism. This place gets shut dwn.
Nuts! Well, there goes my dream of becoming the captain of a container ship. Is there any dream anywhere that Ben Bernanke HASN'T destroyed?
I'll have to go with plan B, and attempt to accumulate a controling interest in rusting hulks...later on today.
Tungsten for Tankers?
Do mega freighters make good pirate ships?
Ahoy me hearties.
Water world, the film that jumped the US's entertainment industry along with a shark.
I said, "Ahoy, me..."..."is this thing moving?"
There's soon to be a new law of supply and demand:
- Demand flat: Price up / Supply flat: Price up
- Demand up: Price up / Supply up: Price up
- Demand down: Price up / Supply down: Price up
OMG ghosts of 2008! And on 12/12/12/! I gotta rehearse my Mayan incantations
Relax Caviar, these guys hammered out everything over dinner.
http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323717004578157152464486598.html?mod=wsj_share_tweet&mg=reno64-wsj#project%3DCENTRALS1212%26articleTabs%3Darticle
Hah, I got junked and this acticle became the featured article. Eat me.
Use a banker to practice the sacrifice and save the virgin for the real day.
We have so few people who haven't been screwed they are rare.
Walmart guy on tv today hinting that fiscal cliff has already done its damage to the Christmas shopping season. Black Friday buying may have been through the roof but the look and tone of this guy tells me that when the final tally comes in, the market is going higher on QE ocho-infinity, cause the layoffs in January are going to be through the roof.
If the damage is done then the situation can only improve. Bullish!
Seriously though, I was at a Wal-Mart and Target in a nice part of town last weekend and there weren't many people there and not much buying going on. Usually we wait for 45 mins in the checkout line at Wal-Mart. Only a quarter of the lanes were open and they were 3 people deep.
Let's see if it makes its 647 all time low in the near future...
It surged from under 1,000 back in the year 2002 to over 10,000 in 2007 and in 2012 it has gone back below 1,000 - what an EPIC BUBBLE.
A bubble indeed. And the chart looks exactly like someone rolled a ball out of an open window from the 80th floor. After a couple of bounces, it starts rolling towards the gutter. And while this is a bit cliche, when products stop crossing borders, boots start.
Another reasonable indicator of how large a credit bubble was blown... and how big a hole that has been created requiring deleveraging (or funny money filling).
if bank bonuses were dependent upon the bdi it would be at record highs right now
And on CNBC.com right now...
Stocks Set for Higher Open as QE4 AwaitedIsn't that all we really need to know?
Holiday bonuses need to be juiced on WS
QE4 will have the impact of a water pistol - QE (infinity) was the Fed's last bullet. This is a bluff and if they pull the trigger everybody is going to know that the emperor has no clothes...
Option 5 is all that's left?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-10/central-bankers-unorthodox-poli...
I am curious to know what other measures they could take, aside from increaing the levels of previous QE'x
Austerity.
Nope. Austerity is the opposite of what they want and need to do. People who clamor for the government to live within its means either, 1) do not understand how our monetary system works or 2) understand how the system works and are in the "let's crash this sucker already" camp.
Aggregate debt must expand or the system collapses. The system doesn't care who takes on the debt; corporations, consumers, or the govt, only that debt expands. 2008 was, give or take, the breaking point for the system. What we've been doing since then is allowing the govt to backfill. Austerity is the opposite of this. "austerity", loosely translated shoud read, "the forced reduction in services in order to squeeze the remaining life out of the system in the form of interest payments on debt that can never be repaid, while still expanding said debt". It doesn't fit on a bumper sticker, sadly.
The last option is for the Fed to extinguish all US debt they hold by decree. That's flatly illegal but there'll be no option. It'll be the swan song for the Fed. That should be pretty much it for the dollar I would think. It will be hard to stick one's head in the sand after that.
"that the emperor has no clothes..."
Don't we already know that?
Depends on if you consider a cockring and a light coat of oil clothes.
Which is exactly why we are going over the fiscal cliff. Raising taxes helps sustain the illusion that the imaginary debt the Fed creates has real value.
Statistics that are in conflict with le Stabilitee shall not be discussed. Only the potential of more printing which shall keep the tide from ever going out is important.
QE457 awaited! YAY!
But wait, I thought QE was now a negative?
so if Jan 02 is any indicator, get ready for explosive upside!! I predict the index to rocket to the moon as the Fed from aroudn the global begin to ship container ships full of their worthless money to each other in an attempt to manipulate this index. No one F's Ben Bernake, Ben Bernake does the F'ing.
Relax, this is all because of the fiscal cliff. As soon as that's fixed this economy will go right back to it's 'winning ways'
Supply/Demand scale has become very sensitive lately, but you ain't seen nothing yet, bitchzes.
This is not rock bottom!!
Wait...demand is relevant? Benny sez if we just print the money to pay for stuff, then bizness is good...
It's now improved, Braver and Newer style!
When goods and services stop crossing boarder, troops will...
same as it ever was.
This global devaluation poker game is going to be interesting when everyone else cashes out and Ben is sitting at the table by himself.
I maintain my original hypothesis; Once all the real wealth and physical assets have been claimed by the TBTF conglomerates around the world and the real owners have their tribes in order. A universal police state society, much like the current chinese state, will be imposed on the earth. The real power brokers in China and America have been on the same page for quite a while and have learned many things from each other. Regarding all the paper promises and debt, all the central banks (who really serve as the control points for the owners) will get together and re-negotciate everything, effectively evaporating derivatives and any debt or risk that they had on their books. You will still be reasponsible for your debt of course. The good news is there will be numerous dead-end, debt-slave, government/coroporate-sponsored positions for you to work the rest of your life at. The true power brokers know exactly what they can get away with from the experiences of people trapped in the toy/tech factories of china and the prisons of America.
Personally, I am in capital preservation mode, not hiring, not firing, trying to produce the minimum product and save on the maintenance costs for my equipment so we can simply stay in business. It takes real commodities and energy to keep this equipment running. Tell me Mr. Bernanke, what is inflation in these areas dumbass?
"A universal police state society, much like the current chinese state"
Lol, look around you. The police state already circles the globe.
That slope has already been slipped down.
Agree LOP. Greece is the heart of the experiment on how much the people will tolerate misery before they have a real rebellion. TPTB will learn from this experiment and implement this globally. They must first continue to kick the can down the road while they transfer all the wealth to the CB's and the global elite. Buy up all the tangible assets and move on to the next herd of people.
Those with clear titles to land may actually win and keep there small holdings. Those with tangible assets like PM', fiearms and ammo better be good at hiding them.
The takeawy from all of this is to stop playing the debt game altogether. This does take time, but once your debt free the feeling is wonderful. Living within ones means is really not that hard if you actually plan long term. Of course the sheeple on goveernment handouts may in the end along with alot of us get culled as currently the system is not sustainable with the current population. Syria is the next spot for the USA military and of course our stupid politicians backing people that basically want us dead.
We cannot have all those trained military people home when the naive people actually start to wake up.
And it will only take the FIRST player to announced he's cashin in his chips. Who will it be I wonder? Last time all it took was 'overnite electronic run on the banks'.
The real economy is stalled and the people know it. The Fed is trying to make believe that this is not the case by pumping the financial economy while praying that somehow there will be a contagion effect from the financial economy to the real economy.
Hope is NOT a strategy. Hasn't anybody told them that?
Hope got elected......twice.
perhaps a 3rd term is necessary
Wag so 2016 is when the real shit hits the fan!
By Diebold!!
to a junkie the next hit is always the strategy
Bush had the right idea....checks for everyone!!!!!! Oh wait everyone is already getting checks...never mind.
Ships aren't needed to export inflation.
Fuck you Bernanke. Eat shit.
Dunno why this didn't get more coverage :
Japan Enters Recession
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/japan/121210/japan-enters-recession-exports
Oh..guess we know why MSM hushed it
See what happens when we stop making/shipping Twinkies!
Don't joke.....I'm down to my last Ding Dong.
Your last one? I've only ever had one ding dong my entire life.
Don't know why that would be such a problem for you.
Oh, wait - are we talking about the same thing here?
Pay no attention to the epic plunge behind the curtain.
Are by-camel shipments of gold from Istanbul to Tehran included in BDI? If so, we should see a big jump soon and all will be well once again...
And in unrelated news: "Fed to begin printing money in order to buy ships and freight futures."
Our government with their lemmings (Media) keep pushing back the day of reckoning. You really have to ask yourself "What's the point?" Does Obama really believe that water doesn't flow downhill? Is he really trying to defy gravity?
"A good portion of speaking will consist of knowing how to lie" -Erasmus
BULLISH!!! QE2infinity. Keep the zombie news coming. The real economy died 5 years ago. Hope and QE 4ever.
Baltic Dry is no longer relevant, things are so prosperous that companies are just using air freight.
Yup! And even though the costs for constantly having to clean those planes loaded with coal have risen sharply... they seem to be able to afford 'em.
Horizontal drilling has put a dent in coal demand.
I can see a huge difference when I drive over Afton Mountain and I don't see and smog. I can actually see 20 miles. Big difference in the last few years.
China is building a nat. gas pipeline from Kazakhstan and will convert more power plants from coal to nat. gas.
It's even effecting CSX bottom line.
To whoever junked me, stick around a bit and you'll see that sarcasm is one of our main forms of communication here in the ZH forum.
u mean canada dry humour on the rocks?
Why the Harpex Index is a betting guide than the Baltic IndeX!
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012/03/23/the-harpex-index-is-superi...
OMFG!!!
ES now crashing. It's only up 3 handles and rising slower than normal!!!
THIS IS BOLD!!!
'Reality' is uncorrolated in this world.
Sheepdog, in this case, brevity is the soul of wisdom.
Nothing more need be said.
Bravo
No problems at this address.
http://www.sothebysrealty.com/eng/sales/detail/180-l-1182-0017886/730-pa...
So is this about the time the stock market reverses and goes down a 1000 points in 3 days so we can have 6 months of mini-rallies and nothing but bad news is good news to come right back to where we are now and convince everyone everything is booming? Funny how fkd up people's brains are. This circus is coming to an end.
Or maybe this time they just pull the rug out and say 'Sorry all your moneys and 401K's and whatnot seem to have been 'Corzine'd...so sorry suckers, welcome to the new order of the world'.
It's coming.
maybe, but not because the BDI is down 8%. doesnt mean anything.
"welcome to the new order of the world" or the "New World Order"...see...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMaCg4fpJKg
Forward to the cliff
I wouldn't read too much into this, (of course people here will since they believe everything written by Tyler)
Ive followed the BDI for years and still don't put much reliance on it. There are seasonal issues, there are HUGE overcapacity issues, there are companies like Vale taking their shipping in house http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/us-vale-china-idUSTRE80201I20120103, there are port expansions going on cutting down port congestion, there are desperate shippers, there are stockpile issues....etc, etc. There's just a whole slew of ills and nuances in the industry. And despite the fact that this is a large drop, the BDI is historically extremely volatile.
For the reason that if you have 100 ships that NEED to move 101 loads of cargo right NOW, the BDI gets bid up quickly because no one wants to be the guy that waits. BUT if you have 100 ships and only 99 loads, none of the shippers want to be the guy missing out on a charter so they accept lower and lower rates, leading to a feedback loop of sorts.
And no, the excess supply has NOT been normalized. That is completely wrong. In the last 2 years newbuild orders were still strong. Newbuild prices came way down and anyone with cash was doing their damndest to keep ordering ships. And scrapping, while up, hasn't been as robust as people hoped.
FYI...YTD fleet growth? 10%.
New tonnage the last 4 years? yea, not normal. Atleast not in this environment.
2009- 40M DWT
2010- 80M DWT
2011- 100M DWT
2012- 110M DWT
CNBC is very concerned about this massive drop in the Baltic Dry...you can tell, because the news is no where on their website.
...but Jamie Dimon said some shit about something - so it's the top story.
BDI will be revised next month to it does'nt matter and the fed will introduce cash for clunker ships!
To loosely quote a ZHer, from the other day who made me laugh(sorry, forgot which)...
"YOU NO GET FRIPP FROPS"
That is racist...and hilarious.
The chart up until arouind mid-2008 looks remarkably like the London property market.
the London market is Baltic wet!
This is evidence of manufacturing come back onshore. Invest in Detroit and other cheap-o areas.
USA fracking is fracking up the index?
Looks like the US market for Chinese-made rubber dog shit has tanked....
Bernanke may be destroying people's dreams, but he is also giving them a sense of purpose.