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Baltic Dry Plunges By Over 8% Overnight, Most Since 2008

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It has been a while since we looked at the Baltic Dry Index, which when normalizing for the excess glut in dry container ship supply (such as right now - 5 years after all the excess supply in the industry - has long been normalized), continues to be one of the best concurrent indicators of global shipping and trade. We look at it today, moments ago it just posted an epic 8.2% plunge, crashing from 900 to 826, or the biggest drop since 2008! Of course, conisdering the collapse in global trade confirmed in past days by both Chinese and US data, this should not come as a surprise, although we are certain it will merely bring out the BDIY apologists who tell us that supply and demand here (like in every other Fed-supported market) are completely uncorrelated.

 

 

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Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:35 | 3055315 VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

SPX JPYUSD spread suggests reversal very soon.

Stocks at record levels pricing in 1000 virigns and Gold and Silver are the only buys here

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:37 | 3055320 CPL
CPL's picture

Do you accept hand jives as collateral?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:52 | 3055380 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

They accept Funky hand jives only.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:28 | 3055536 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You misspelled 'jobs'.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:34 | 3055556 CPL
CPL's picture

Hand or blowing variety?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:30 | 3055841 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Bullish! I heard that The Bernank was going to expand asset purchases to commercial ships!

 

 

Global Shipbuilding Outlook – 45% of Shipyards Have No Orders

By Sanjeev Rana, Deutsche Bank 

Global Shipbuilding Downturn Continues

Global shipbuilding industry has been going through a downturn for the last four years. The downturn has been felt more in the commercial shipbuilding industry where demand tends to be driven by fixed asset investments and growth in global trade. Global commercial ship orders were down 48% YoY in the first nine months of 2012 and order backlog fell to half of the level in first half of 2008. At this point all lead sector indicators such as freight rates, ship prices, used ship transactions, and used ship prices suggest that commercial shipbuilding demand is unlikely to recover much in 2013 as the sector continues to suffer from oversupply, a weak financing market, and low freight rates...

 

Despite very low ship prices, shipowners expect prices to fall further due to competition among yards as 45% of global shipyards have no orders to work on post-2012.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:38 | 3055324 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Just get the metal, dealing with just one virgin is a headache.....let alone a 1000 of them.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:48 | 3055363 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

First it's 72, now 1000?

WTF??  Will they leave any for the rest of us?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:48 | 3055368 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Inflation dude.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:06 | 3055438 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

I've got to get me one of those new 3-d printers that everyone is making such a fuss over...

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:00 | 3055708 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Save a lot of time and effort and just go to the bar at last call...  the real thing is better... 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:58 | 3055397 Pool Shark
Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:03 | 3055424 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

eewwwww...

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:08 | 3055437 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Nay, Hedonics adjustment.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:12 | 3055755 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

First it's 72, now 1000?

WTF??

inflation

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:10 | 3056001 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Dude, they'll get to face 1000 VIRGINIANS!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:38 | 3055319 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Fiscal Cliff Superstorm Sandy Republicans!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:39 | 3055323 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Hard to compete with Amazon's free super saver shipping.  Amazon can't even do it.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:38 | 3055325 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

it appears the BLS has made a "seasonal revision" to the BDI.  It is now only down 4%.  It would seem they are telling us that a "recovery" has just been discovered.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:43 | 3055613 tango
tango's picture

BLS drops, markets rise - SOS

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:38 | 3055328 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Holiday sales will be spectacular.....

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:01 | 3055416 Shevva
Shevva's picture

Already covered sales will be up 10% on last year, moneys free and easy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-11/better-benefits 

Lol your a tax payer at xmas, be lucky.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:05 | 3055431 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

...at Cabela's

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:18 | 3055495 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

way overpriced

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:23 | 3055513 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

True, but both of them near me always seem to have long lines at the firearm checkout - much longer these days.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:38 | 3055329 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

I suspect there are years, perhaps decades, of "juice" left in the Central Bank arsenals to keep the world afloat economically. I don't see much long term import in such measures as the BDI. HOWEVER...the actions of Central Banks is creating both a perception and thus a reality of just how sick the world is. The citizens of the world have yet to see this thing as terminal. When they do....yikes.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:51 | 3055378 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The "juice" isn't actually in the CB arsenals...it's in the brainwashed minds of the sheeple who continue to have blind faith in the CB arsenals.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:04 | 3055429 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Very true. Which is why, at some point in the not too distant future, truth telling will be an act of terrorism. This place gets shut dwn.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:39 | 3055330 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nuts!  Well, there goes my dream of becoming the captain of a container ship.  Is there any dream anywhere that Ben Bernanke HASN'T destroyed?

I'll have to go with plan B, and attempt to accumulate a controling interest in rusting hulks...later on today.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:41 | 3055339 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Tungsten for Tankers?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:57 | 3055400 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Do mega freighters make good pirate ships?

Ahoy me hearties.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:02 | 3055422 Shevva
Shevva's picture

Water world, the film that jumped the US's entertainment industry along with a shark.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:30 | 3055544 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I said, "Ahoy, me..."..."is this thing moving?"

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:45 | 3055331 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

 

There's soon to be a new law of supply and demand:

 

- Demand flat:  Price up / Supply flat:  Price up

- Demand up:  Price up / Supply up:  Price up

- Demand down:  Price up / Supply down:  Price up

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:41 | 3055337 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

OMG ghosts of 2008! And on 12/12/12/! I gotta rehearse my Mayan incantations

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:17 | 3055375 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Relax Caviar, these guys hammered out everything over dinner.

http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323717004578157152464486598.html?mod=wsj_share_tweet&mg=reno64-wsj#project%3DCENTRALS1212%26articleTabs%3Darticle

Hah, I got junked and this acticle became the featured article. Eat me.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:54 | 3055386 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Use a banker to practice the sacrifice and save the virgin for the real day.

We have so few people who haven't been screwed they are rare.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:40 | 3055338 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Walmart guy on tv today hinting that fiscal cliff has already done its damage to the Christmas shopping season.  Black Friday buying may have been through the roof but the look and tone of this guy tells me that when the final tally comes in, the market is going higher on QE ocho-infinity, cause the layoffs in January are going to be through the roof.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:03 | 3055418 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

If the damage is done then the situation can only improve. Bullish!

Seriously though, I was at a Wal-Mart and Target in a nice part of town last weekend and there weren't many people there and not much buying going on. Usually we wait for 45 mins in the checkout line at Wal-Mart.  Only a quarter of the lanes were open and they were 3 people deep.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:40 | 3055340 Stonedog
Stonedog's picture

Let's see if it makes its 647 all time low in the near future... 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:41 | 3055341 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

It surged from under 1,000 back in the year 2002 to over 10,000 in 2007 and in 2012 it has gone back below 1,000 - what an EPIC BUBBLE.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:57 | 3055399 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

A bubble indeed. And the chart looks exactly like someone rolled a ball out of an open window from the 80th floor. After a couple of bounces, it starts rolling towards the gutter. And while this is a bit cliche, when products stop crossing borders, boots start.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:00 | 3055408 centerline
centerline's picture

Another reasonable indicator of how large a credit bubble was blown... and how big a hole that has been created requiring deleveraging (or funny money filling).

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:41 | 3055343 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

if bank bonuses were dependent upon the bdi it would be at record highs right now

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:43 | 3055344 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

And on CNBC.com right now...

Stocks Set for Higher Open as QE4 Awaited

Isn't that all we really need to know?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:44 | 3055350 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Holiday bonuses need to be juiced on WS

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:44 | 3055353 Stonedog
Stonedog's picture

QE4 will have the impact of a water pistol - QE (infinity) was the Fed's last bullet.  This is a bluff and if they pull the trigger everybody is going to know that the emperor has no clothes...

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:49 | 3055369 IPA
IPA's picture

Option 5 is all that's left?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-10/central-bankers-unorthodox-poli...

I am curious to know what other measures they could take, aside from increaing the levels of previous QE'x

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:59 | 3055402 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Austerity. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:18 | 3055494 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

Nope. Austerity is the opposite of what they want and need to do. People who clamor for the government to live within its means either, 1) do not understand how our monetary system works or 2) understand how the system works and are in the "let's crash this sucker already" camp.

Aggregate debt must expand or the system collapses. The system doesn't care who takes on the debt; corporations, consumers, or the govt, only that debt expands. 2008 was, give or take, the breaking point for the system. What we've been doing since then is allowing the govt to backfill. Austerity is the opposite of this. "austerity", loosely translated shoud read, "the forced reduction in services in order to squeeze the remaining life out of the system in the form of interest payments on debt that can never be repaid, while still expanding said debt". It doesn't fit on a bumper sticker, sadly.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:41 | 3055592 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

The last option is for the Fed to extinguish all US debt they hold by decree.  That's flatly illegal but there'll be no option.  It'll be the swan song for the Fed.  That should be pretty much it for the dollar I would think.  It will be hard to stick one's head in the sand after that.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:08 | 3055439 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

"that the emperor has no clothes..."

Don't we already know that?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:28 | 3056079 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

Depends on if you consider a cockring and a light coat of oil clothes.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:11 | 3055452 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Which is exactly why we are going over the fiscal cliff.  Raising taxes helps sustain the illusion that the imaginary debt the Fed creates has real value.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:04 | 3055428 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Statistics that are in conflict with le Stabilitee shall not be discussed.  Only the potential of more printing which shall keep the tide from ever going out is important. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:11 | 3055455 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

QE457 awaited! YAY!

But wait, I thought QE was now a negative? 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:44 | 3055345 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

so if Jan 02 is any indicator, get ready for explosive upside!!  I predict the index to rocket to the moon as the Fed from aroudn the global begin to ship container ships full of their worthless money to each other in an attempt to manipulate this index.  No one F's Ben Bernake, Ben Bernake does the F'ing. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:43 | 3055346 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Relax, this is all because of the fiscal cliff. As soon as that's fixed this economy will go right back to it's 'winning ways'

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:43 | 3055347 The Reich
The Reich's picture

Supply/Demand scale has become very sensitive lately, but you ain't seen nothing yet, bitchzes.

 

This is not rock bottom!!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:45 | 3055355 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Wait...demand is relevant? Benny sez if we just print the money to pay for stuff, then bizness is good...

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:13 | 3055460 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It's now improved, Braver and Newer style!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:43 | 3055348 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

When goods and services stop crossing boarder, troops will...

same as it ever was.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:45 | 3055356 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

This global devaluation poker game is going to be interesting when everyone else cashes out and Ben is sitting at the table by himself.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:08 | 3055398 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I maintain my original hypothesis;  Once all the real wealth and physical assets have been claimed by the TBTF conglomerates around the world and the real owners have their tribes in order.  A universal police state society, much like the current chinese state, will be imposed on the earth.  The real power brokers in China and America have been on the same page for quite a while and have learned many things from each other.  Regarding all the paper promises and debt, all the central banks (who really serve as the control points for the owners) will get together and re-negotciate everything, effectively evaporating derivatives and any debt or risk that they had on their books.  You will still be reasponsible for your debt of course.  The good news is there will be numerous dead-end, debt-slave, government/coroporate-sponsored positions for you to work the rest of your life at.  The true power brokers know exactly what they can get away with from the experiences of people trapped in the toy/tech factories of china and the prisons of America.

Personally, I am in capital preservation mode, not hiring, not firing, trying to produce the minimum product and save on the maintenance costs for my equipment so we can simply stay in business.  It takes real commodities and energy to keep this equipment running.  Tell me Mr. Bernanke, what is inflation in these areas dumbass?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:11 | 3055457 fuu
fuu's picture

"A universal police state society, much like the current chinese state"

Lol, look around you. The police state already circles the globe.

That slope has already been slipped down.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:18 | 3055787 GCT
GCT's picture

Agree LOP.  Greece is the heart of the experiment on how much the people will tolerate misery before they have a real rebellion.  TPTB will learn from this experiment and implement this globally.   They must first continue to kick the can down the road while they transfer all the wealth to the CB's and the global elite. Buy up all the tangible assets and move on to the next herd of people.

Those with clear titles to land may actually win and keep there small holdings.  Those with tangible assets like PM', fiearms and ammo better be good at hiding them.

The takeawy from all of this is to stop playing the debt game altogether.  This does take time, but once your debt free the feeling is wonderful. Living within ones means is really not that hard if you actually plan long term.  Of course the sheeple on goveernment handouts may in the end along with alot of us get culled as currently the system is not sustainable with the current population.  Syria is the next spot for the USA military and of course our stupid politicians backing people that basically want us dead.

We cannot have all those trained military people home when the naive people actually start to wake up.  

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:14 | 3055471 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And it will only take the FIRST player to announced he's cashin in his chips. Who will it be I wonder? Last time all it took was 'overnite electronic run on the banks'.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:44 | 3055349 Jafo
Jafo's picture

The real economy is stalled and the people know it.  The Fed is trying to make believe that this is not the case by pumping the financial economy while praying that somehow there will be a contagion effect from the financial economy to the real economy. 

Hope is NOT a strategy.  Hasn't anybody told them that?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:48 | 3055364 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Hope got elected......twice.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:00 | 3055412 wagthetails
wagthetails's picture

perhaps a 3rd term is necessary

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:21 | 3055794 GCT
GCT's picture

Wag so 2016 is when the real shit hits the fan!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:03 | 3055426 kill switch
kill switch's picture

By Diebold!!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:47 | 3055365 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

to a junkie the next hit is always the strategy

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:57 | 3055396 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

Bush had the right idea....checks for everyone!!!!!!  Oh wait everyone is already getting checks...never mind.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:48 | 3055366 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Ships aren't needed to export inflation.

Fuck you Bernanke. Eat shit.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:49 | 3055370 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Dunno why this didn't get more coverage :

Japan Enters Recession

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/japan/121210/japan-enters-recession-exports

Oh..guess we know why MSM hushed it

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:50 | 3055373 pokrova
pokrova's picture

See what happens when we stop making/shipping Twinkies!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:54 | 3055385 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Don't joke.....I'm down to my last Ding Dong.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:57 | 3055401 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Your last one? I've only ever had one ding dong my entire life.

Don't know why that would be such a problem for you.

Oh, wait - are we talking about the same thing here?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:51 | 3055379 toomanyfakecons...
toomanyfakeconservatives's picture

Pay no attention to the epic plunge behind the curtain.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:54 | 3055388 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Are by-camel shipments of gold from Istanbul to Tehran included in BDI?  If so, we should see a big jump soon and all will be well once again...

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:56 | 3055393 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

And in unrelated news: "Fed to begin printing money in order to buy ships and freight futures."

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:56 | 3055395 Sigep0612
Sigep0612's picture

Our government with their lemmings (Media) keep pushing back the day of reckoning.    You really have to ask yourself "What's the point?"   Does Obama really believe that water doesn't flow downhill?   Is he really trying to defy gravity?  

"A good portion of speaking will consist of knowing how to lie"  -Erasmus   

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:00 | 3055407 oby11
oby11's picture

BULLISH!!! QE2infinity. Keep the zombie news coming. The real economy died 5 years ago. Hope and QE 4ever.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:01 | 3055417 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

Baltic Dry is no longer relevant, things are so prosperous that companies are just using air freight.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:07 | 3055435 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Yup!  And even though the costs for constantly having to clean those planes loaded with coal have risen sharply... they seem to be able to afford 'em.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:17 | 3055488 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

Horizontal drilling has put a dent in coal demand.

I can see a huge difference when I drive over Afton Mountain and I don't see and smog. I can actually see 20 miles. Big difference in the last few years.

China is building a nat. gas pipeline from Kazakhstan and will convert more power plants from coal to nat. gas.

It's even effecting CSX bottom line. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:42 | 3056140 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

To whoever junked me, stick around a bit and you'll see that sarcasm is one of our main forms of communication here in the ZH forum.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:45 | 3056155 falak pema
falak pema's picture

 u mean canada dry humour on the rocks?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:05 | 3055430 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Why the Harpex Index is a betting guide than the Baltic IndeX!

 

 

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012/03/23/the-harpex-index-is-superi...

 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:05 | 3055432 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

OMFG!!!

ES now crashing.  It's only up 3 handles and rising slower than normal!!!

THIS IS BOLD!!!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:05 | 3055434 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Reality' is uncorrolated in this world.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:25 | 3055824 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Sheepdog, in this case, brevity is the soul of wisdom.

Nothing more need be said.

Bravo

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:10 | 3055445 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

So is this about the time the stock market reverses and goes down a 1000 points in 3 days so we can have 6 months of mini-rallies and nothing but bad news is good news to come right back to where we are now and convince everyone everything is booming?  Funny how fkd up people's brains are.  This circus is coming to an end.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:17 | 3055486 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or maybe this time they just pull the rug out and say 'Sorry all your moneys and 401K's and whatnot seem to have been 'Corzine'd...so sorry suckers, welcome to the new order of the world'. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:23 | 3055510 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

It's coming.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:48 | 3055642 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

maybe, but not because the BDI is down 8%. doesnt mean anything.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:36 | 3055863 moonstears
moonstears's picture

"welcome to the new order of the world" or the "New World Order"...see...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMaCg4fpJKg

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:14 | 3055473 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Forward to the cliff

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:17 | 3055483 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

I wouldn't read too much into this, (of course people here will since they believe everything written by Tyler)

 

Ive followed the BDI for years and still don't put much reliance on it. There are seasonal issues, there are HUGE overcapacity issues, there are companies like Vale taking their shipping in house http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/03/us-vale-china-idUSTRE80201I20120103, there are port expansions going on cutting down port congestion, there are desperate shippers, there are stockpile issues....etc, etc. There's just a whole slew of ills and nuances in the industry. And despite the fact that this is a large drop, the BDI is historically extremely volatile.

For the reason that if you have 100 ships that NEED to move 101 loads of cargo right NOW, the BDI gets bid up quickly because no one wants to be the guy that waits. BUT if you have 100 ships and only 99 loads, none of the shippers want to be the guy missing out on a charter so they accept lower and lower rates, leading to a feedback loop of sorts.   

And no, the excess supply has NOT been normalized. That is completely wrong. In the last 2 years newbuild orders were still strong. Newbuild prices came way down and anyone with cash was doing their damndest to keep ordering ships. And scrapping, while up, hasn't been as robust as people hoped. 

 

 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:42 | 3055614 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

FYI...YTD fleet growth? 10%. 

 

New tonnage the last 4 years? yea, not normal. Atleast not in this environment.

2009- 40M DWT

2010- 80M DWT

2011- 100M DWT

2012- 110M DWT

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 10:21 | 3055503 HD
HD's picture

CNBC is very concerned about this massive drop in the Baltic Dry...you can tell, because the news is no where on their website.

...but Jamie Dimon said some shit about something - so it's the top story.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:10 | 3055747 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

BDI will be revised next month to it does'nt matter and the fed will introduce cash for clunker ships!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:34 | 3055854 moonstears
moonstears's picture

To loosely quote a ZHer, from the other day who made me laugh(sorry, forgot which)...

"YOU NO GET FRIPP FROPS"

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:40 | 3055888 HD
HD's picture

That is racist...and hilarious.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 11:40 | 3055883 Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

The chart up until arouind mid-2008 looks remarkably like the London property market.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:44 | 3056148 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the London market is Baltic wet! 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 12:56 | 3056195 omi
omi's picture

This is evidence of manufacturing come back onshore. Invest in Detroit and other cheap-o areas.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 13:48 | 3056430 TheLastMan
TheLastMan's picture

USA fracking is fracking up the index?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 13:58 | 3056473 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Looks like the US market for Chinese-made rubber dog shit has tanked....

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 13:58 | 3056478 Zola
Zola's picture

Bernanke may be destroying people's dreams, but he is also giving them a sense of purpose.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!