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Chart Of The Day: The Collapsing Half-Life Of Unsterilized Central Bank Intervention
Assuming that Ben Bernanke unveils the transition from 'sterilized' Twist to 'unsterilized' QE4 today (which if he doesn't will upset more than a few long-only managers looking to make their year), then the chart below shows the incredible and insatiable demand for money printing (and the central banks' acquiescence). Looking at just outright incremental injections of excess reserves (money-printing), since the whole 'experiment' began, the Fed and ECB have embarked on more and more frequent attempts to prop up this 'fundamentally' sinking ship. Perhaps this is what the Hong Kong Monetary Authority warned of? At the current average decay period of around 40% per action, we should see the ECB or Fed enact something new by around February 4th (just as the debt-ceiling comes to a head).
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Looks like it drops to zero on a long enough timeline.
Until we get to a point where Bernanke is forced to announce additional unsterilized QE daily. Weimar 2.0
"At the current average decay period of around 40% per action, we should see the ECB or Fed enact something new by around February 4th (just as the debt-ceiling comes to a head)."
We still have a debt ceiling? WTF!!! WHY!!!!???
We could also add in the column for pre-QE1.
Between 12/23/1913 and 11/25/2008, we had 34,671 days. Gives some perspective to the decay rate, no?
Why don't we just sterilize Bernanke?
by my calculations and based on 1/2 lifes. QE12 will start around July 15th 2013. QE13 will then start on july 16th 2013.
We got 7 months
Calculus calculus. It's acceleration of the rate of change. Its much sooner than you think because the rate is increasing.
At the rate of acceleration we will be at daily QE (Yes, DAILY QE! HOLY SHIT BALLS) before the summer.
The wheels are off the car already... we just haven't felt the impact yet.
So how long before the "market" figures this out? It seems the lights could go out, virtually any day now.
I've never thought of it as a debt ceiling- it's more like a debt target.
It's actually a big ol' fashion can of Campbell's Mmm Mmm Mmm "Soup is Good Food" Tomato Soup. Go ahead, kick it, you know you want to!
IT is more like a debt fantasy
A debt parasol.
because the political circus of the debt limit and fiscal cliff, distract attention from the implacement of the police state around us
Pretty much there already. Nothing really changes until the supply lines break. Look at history, shit only gets real when the power goes off and the food and fuel are not delivered for whatever reason.
Exactly. Or the ATMs stop functioning and the banks are closed. (word of advice - keep cash on hand).
Extrapolating, QE5 will take place prior to QE4, which means Ben will be announcing that QE5 began last Friday. Retroactive easing.
Any day, I'm expecting to see Bruce Willis arrive from the future trying to figure out what happened to the planet.
Ah! This explains why all these folks tell us that we're not in recession!
Butt-head: I'm, like, angry at numbers.
Beavis: There's like, too many of 'em and stuff.
Expect there to be a declaration of "War on Numbers!" (get rid of them and our problems are solved!)
HFQE. High Frequency QE BITCHEZ.
Congratulations on your thinking outside the box. QE will be done on the sly, to favored banks only (hmm HSBC?) to be "revealed" after the fact, hence "retroactive QE".
Looks like the chart for "days between crack fixes" for the jive doggs in East LA and the Bronx.
They need to invent a time machine so that QE5->QE6 can cross the zero barrier.
it (time) will never drop to zero, it will just take ever larger amounts of spending in smaller time periods.
Looks just like the dimishing returns evidenced in the S&P.
The bearded academics!
"Chart Of The Day: The Collapsing Half-Life Of Unsterilized Fed Intervention"
Let's just give the Fed a vasectomy and reduce that prick (Ben) down in size.
<At the least he'll be shooting blanks.>
Stand back everyone.
I'm gunna beat the shit out of this Bear market with my QE4 whiffle bat.
That'll teach it.
I'm incredulous that people address Bernanke and his ilk with reverence. His is a giant termite eating away at the very core of our nation...
These guys are the biggest crooks to ever walk the planet.
How dare you sirs.
The Bernank received a perfect SAT score and attended both MIT & Harvard as the Main Stream Media loves to repeat often & thusly. His credentials are unimpeachable.
Proof that the best trained monkey is no longer a monkey...
There's always a bull market somewhere. Guns now and rural hideways next.
The system has already collapsed. Now, it's just a matte how to allocate and crystallize the losses ...
I don't believe that it has already collapsed so much as it's brain dead and in a coma. Prognosis: death, shortly...
When the collapse does come we won't be sitting around talking about it...
The analogy I use with people is that of a cavity - on the outside the country may look mostly good, but internally it's been completely hollowed out - one small tap and the whole thing is going to shatter.
Okay, that's probably not how cavities work. I learned everything I know about teeth from Monty Python's Crelm Toothpaste skit.
Mentioning Monty Python gets an automatic up-arrow!
It's internal cancer is what it is. And, well, it's a perfect match being that perpetual growth IS the function (exponential function) of the cancer cell. The origins go back much further than folks want to admit: "go forth and multiply" is kind of a problematic instruction on a finite planet.
Good news- the cancer will cease.
Bad news- the patient dies.
That ramp should have an ADA approved slope, seeing as your crippling the whole fucking economy !
gold selling off lol
Turning Japanese
Dunno what everyone's worried about ... feckin world ends next week anyway.
bill gross is such a pussbag when he is on tv.
wouldn't it be cheaper to just have Isreal re-double it's purchases of AAPL via swap lines from the fed to prop this shit show up?
They might as well make QE4 endless as well. We already know it has to be.
Star Date 22453.454 From the FOMC,,,,QE3546 right on track....purchase of $31.4 Quadrillion in MBS seen as panacea to economic woes. Meanwhile, a record 530 million members of the American SSR (out of a total population of 532 million citizens) live at or below the poverty level.
Behold the advent of "Sisyphusian Economics".
I'm turning Japanese, I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so...
Bullish on bullets and band aids.
I forsee a new growth industry. Sales will double each year for the foreseeable future. It is time to hop on the RIOT GEAR bandwagon.
If it doesn't do anything then they should quit doing it or go to Banksters Anonymous. They'll end up in a divorce if they continue.
I think seeing the Fed's moves in isolation is now an extreme mistake, because what we are really experiencing is the birth pangs of a Coordinated Worldwide Stimulus and Growth-oriented Agenda for the first time in several decades.
If the SPD gets Germany back in 2013, it is literally all over but the shouting.
I would not be surprised if we once again started hearing about "closing the gap between North and South" again soon. Or if every analyst around started "taking hard looks" at first Latin America, then Africa. The erstwhile South Asian "Tigers" are already looking pretty rosy in most cases and will look a lot rosier, if some sort of Grand Deal can be worked out on Energy in the South China Sea.
We are like those poor souls on Columbia, routinely re-entering the atmosphere, unaware a small hole in the wing would blast them to bits until it was too late.
Older generation needs to admit they are financially wrong. My generation is fu*ked thanks grandpa
Yeah, Gramps must have been a regular fucking idiot for not beeing able to see into the future to find out just how destructive the lies the pols of his time told turned out to be. Not like *your* generation, right? I've seen you geniuses standing in line at casino nightclubs in order to pay $20 for a drink; or hundreds for the right to sit down at a gen-u-wine _table_; or multiple thousands for a bottle of Dom/Cristal/Rapper cognac.
I've also watched your exceptionally far-seeing and wise generation sign up for crippling student loans in the tens/hundreds of thousands of dollars, (and then whiine like little bitches when it's time to start paying 'em back). I see y'all whip out your debit card to pay for the $1.29 Pepsi at the 7-11. I've watched y'all struggle with complex tasks like....oh....writing a coherent sentnce, or tying a tie/wearing a suit, or doing laughably simple addition/subtraction in your head.
Oh, it's true enough your generation is fucked, boh. No denying that. it's just that A) your generation voted overwhelmingly for the 2 biggest fuckup presidents in US history, who accelerated your imminent fucking radically, *and then re-elected them* and B) as mentioned, I've seen your generation in action. Soft, whiny pussies utterly absorbed with their precious little cellphones - and aside from of course "yoursleves", that's about the limit of how far your worldview seems to go. "Adults" who measure "accomplishment" in terms of video game skill; or the coolest Facebook page; or whoever has the most magical swords from an imaginary land. Grandpa's generation would have eaten you for lunch.
Generational bickering is going to fix everything... (sarc)
>>>Grandpa's generation would have eaten you for lunch.<<<
Still can and still might...and since many of them are vegan, they are "grass fed and all natural."
Yum, yum.
If you put this chart together with others from ZeroHedge showing the diminishing returns of printapalooza, you come to a very scary conclusion:
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/12/12/one-central-bank-head-depar...