Does The Fed Think The S&P 500 Will Be At 750 In Jan 2015

Tyler Durden's picture


At the current pace of 'improvement' in the unemployment rate, it appears the Fed will cease its 'stimulation' in early 2015 - and based on the empirical relationship between unemployment rates and the S&P 500 that implies a healthy retracement to around 750. Seems like the index is comfortable trading back to that level...



Chart: Bloomberg

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Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:30 | 3057868 DCon
DCon's picture

Jim Rickards being interviewed by the prettiest face on TV



Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:38 | 3057893 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

You got the down arrow from me DCon.  Don't EVER try to get me to go to Farcebook for ANYTHING.  If I want to see Lauren Lyster, I will just close my eyes and look at the image of her body which is now burned in to my retinas.........that's the only place I can hide anything without my wife seeing it.......

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:48 | 3057916 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Best way to do it, my wife doesn't even know she exists.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:53 | 3057931 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

Your wife doesn't know she exists or your wife doesn't know Lauren Lyster exists??????  I ask because my wife says "Do you even know I'm talking to you?  It's as if I don't exist." And then I take another sip of fine Kentucky bourbon.........

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 23:23 | 3058288 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Is she trying to give Rickards the Basic Instinct treatment?  She keeps switching from crossed legs to uncrossed.  Its got me thinking about "carrots" and "sticks".

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:31 | 3057875 Catflappo
Catflappo's picture

I'm not sure I'm seeing that 'empirical relationship' post-2009?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:34 | 3057884 ar01
ar01's picture

lol, this graph is joke. Not much better than that "duck" indicator from 2008. 


ZH: On a long enough timeline, the quality of our analysis drops to zero. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:55 | 3057933 Insideher Trading
Insideher Trading's picture


I know exactally what you're talking about. It's actually reffered to as the "dangerous black swan formation". A forgivable mistake.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 21:02 | 3057951 vast-dom
Thu, 12/13/2012 - 09:43 | 3058893 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Or the dangerous 'Miss Swan formation'....hee looka lika MAN!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:36 | 3057891 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I find your squiggly lines confusing.  Anyone know if MTv Buckwild has started yet?

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:51 | 3057923 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

whoever had the original idea to plot this graph is a maniac and I approve!

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 20:58 | 3057945 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

S&P revisit of 800 area and Dow revisit of 8000 sometime between now and 2015 sounds about right to me. 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 21:05 | 3057957 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Always wish that when they post these types of relationships they would also include real wage/income growth or US currency depreciation...just to put it in perspective. What we are all viewing in the chart presented is known in the Magik community as levitation. I think the S&P will be much closer to home around the indicated 750, just sayin'.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 21:28 | 3058015 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

"Does The Fed Think..."



no, that's done by their master, Goldman and JPM

Fuck you Bernanke...piece of fucking shit.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 21:32 | 3058030 caerus
caerus's picture

the massive triple top should be obvious by now...relax and watch roger waters play the 12-12-12 concert

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 21:45 | 3058063 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Pink Floyd is killing it right now.

F'n great group. I'm not one to watch benefit shows, but I flipped through the channels, landed on the concert while Floyd was playing "Money", and decided to stick around for a while.

Bon Jovi will be up next. Guess I can turn the station.

Oh, yeah - about that "triple top" thing coming on 12-12-12. These numerologist people who run this joint have a sense of humour, don't they?

Good gosh. Adam Sandler. Blech.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 22:04 | 3058109 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Yeah. Great concert for an actual good cause. Springsteen was on when I stumbled across it. Don't like his politics, but I give him kudos! Anyone with extra $$$$ that can give, should. I am not a fan of the feds (us) rebuilding beach houses for people that won't let me on their beach- that's what insurance is for. If they didn't do the right thing and have insurance, then they can let someone else have the opportunity to buy and fix the property and move on to something they can afford. But, there are many who really need help and this is a good fundraiser. My family made it through hurricanes Belle and Hugo. We had damage and the foresight to have insured properly enough to be ok, as did my brother who still lives on LI. But anyway, speech over, back to the show...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 02:42 | 3058562 MustacheCashStash
MustacheCashStash's picture

I was able to catch Pink Floyd 2x during their Division Bell tour in '94. To this day, I judge all concerts based upon those two glorious evenings so long ago. Never got around to seeing the live 8 concert with all the members reunited for one final time.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 00:30 | 3058409 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Maybe I'm dumb but this graph needs more explanaition.


Ooooooh I see, stimulus ends, S&P goes to its intrinsic value. Got it!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 00:57 | 3058439 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



We might not have anything resembling a nation in 2015.

I'm surprised Tyler(s) have such a ho-hum view about the rapidly approaching currency collapse.  It's THE biggest threat to America's well being, THE thing that will bring America to its knees, yet nobody in government talks about it, nobody on Wall Street talks about it, you can't see it on a bloomberg terminal, hence ZH doesn't talk about it.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 01:04 | 3058472 Orly
Orly's picture

It seems there's enough cranky old geezers to do the hand-wringing here.  Tyler is just laying out events as the slow-motion paradigm shift is happening.

The sky is falling probably doesn't last long monetising a website.


Thu, 12/13/2012 - 01:58 | 3058489 cranky-old-geezer
cranky-old-geezer's picture



No problemo Orly, I'll keep raising the issue.  Somebody has to.

I'm more inclined to believe they're ignoring it like everyone else is, viewing it as tin foil hat type stuff, when we see the effect of it every day.

ZH parrots "official" inflation numbers when everybody knows it's far higher, "official" unemployment numbers when everybody knows it's far higher, and all the other "official" numbers when everybody knows they're bullshit.

If ZH wants to be a softball financial site, barely to the right of MSM, making little sarcastic jabs at the official government line they report, never playing hardball, never coming right out calling it BULLSHIT and saying what the truth is, ok, that's their business model.  But it's a disappointment.

And to even entertain the idea the Fed might ever stop printing, as ZH has done today, is complete ludicrous nonsense, irresponsible for any financial site worth it's salt.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 03:39 | 3058593 vato poco
vato poco's picture

Ehhhh.....I 'spec it's a fine line the Tylers walk, C.O.G. I have no doubt they see the impending train wreck as well or better than we mere peanut gallery spectators do, but to call attention to it, day after day.....hysterically screeching, "Any minute now!!" in a world where The Fed/Goldman/JPM have proven themselves Masters at both kicking the can AND changing the rules as needed.....

After just a couple of weeks of that, the world's most highly-repected money/finance website turns into an Alex Jones 'ooga booga' farce. A joke. A parody of reasonable distrust of TPTB. And once the Rep & Credibility is lost, it don't come back. Alex Jones' sites, Prisonplanet and Infowars, says all the stuff you think ZH should be saying, and much much more. Do you think they're a credible source? I don't.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 09:41 | 3058883 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

6.5 Geezer! 6.5% is now the new 'magical number' its all the FED cares about and now sets out to throw TRILLIONS 'to get there' it all hinges on 6.5 unemployment dontchaknow WHEEE!!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 04:37 | 3058626 smart girl
smart girl's picture

I don't trust Alex Jones.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 04:58 | 3058641 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

By 2015?  Or sooner.


SP500 weekly speaks volumes.


These are not happy times folks.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 09:42 | 3058879 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bullshit....all bullshit. They could have just let markets drop and arrest and restructure a few banks and we'd be fine now.....don't tell me now the plan is by the end of 2015 they'll let the S&P drop and 6.5% unemployment will be met and everyone will go 'WHEW! That was a CLOSE one but now we're all fixed!' 100% certified Grade-A BULLLLSSSHITE!. 

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