Get It While You Can

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Mark J. Grant, author of Out of the Box,

“Get It While You Can”
 
                        -Janis Joplin
 
As we head towards December 31 and chaos I am reminded of the late Janis Joplin and her rather famous song. Investors are being hit from all sides now. We face the fiscal cliff and the quite real possibility that we will go over it, the debt ceiling and then we are assuaged by various tax and spending schemes, such as the possibility that Municipal Bonds will be Federally taxed and then we are likely to find that the Fed increases their buying program which will take their balance sheet up to about $4 trillion, right in-line with the ECB, as they buy $90 billion a month in Treasury and MBS securities. The stock market chugs along with their “What me worry” attitude first brought to us by Mad Magazine and we find ourselves in a world gone astray that is curtailed by ever increasing amounts of capital and the inability to invest off-world so that the available choices limit what can be obtained. As we head into 2013 the demand from the Fed, the expanded capital base and maturities and the payment of coupons and dividends will vastly exceed the available supply of bonds by somewhere around $1 trillion if the Fed acts as expected today. Treasury yields may go up on this day or that day but you can expect lower yields as the trend. Where all of this is having a dramatic impact is in risk securities or bonds with a credit consideration as part of the equation. There is massive compression taking place now and it has been going on since the Spring and I see no let-up in sight. The equation is buy long, buy at a discount if possible, sit, wait and Win. You will get the coupon and you will get appreciation and thank you very much Mr. Bernanke. Now there will come a time, an important moment, when you will have to turn on a dime with this play but it is not now, it is not yet and so we take the small advantages that we are given.
 
The Greek buyback went about as expected as Greece fell short, demanded the rest of the bonds from the Greek banks and came close to their goal. The deal will go through and then Greece will guarantee more of their bank bonds which will be pledged at the ECB and so the hoax continues but what else is new these days. It is not that Peter robs Paul; it is that Paul is a willing participant as long as the bread and honey keep flowing. For the time being the Germans, the French, the Dutch have no political issues with handing their citizen’s money over to Greece so the game will go on. It is not a forever game in my opinion but it is the game for now as Europe could not economically withstand a Greek default. It is a dangerous game, a tricky game but until there is a change in the political winds; it will continue.
 
Dangers Loom
 
Just because we are now in a world drowning in apathy do not think that this will go on forever. The problems have become magnified by the slush of capital thrown about by the world’s central banks so that when the bough breaks; it will be a systemic break. It will flash right across the world and we will have another “Oh My God” moment which, as I peer into the future, may come in the next year. Europe is now being dominated by the “have-nots” and the lone voice of the Bundesbank will be challenged as never before during the next twelve months. “More money” is the only thing keep the world’s economies afloat and the demand for “more money, more money” will be the hue and cry both in America and Europe. In the United States the re-distribution of wealth will be pressed by Mr. Obama and his minions as the socialization of America continues but we may find a backlash in the next elections with not an evangelized Tea Party but some new group demanding core fiscal and traditional American values where hard work and success are not derided and where “Rich” is no longer a dirty word. If the present course continues then not only will the rich be poorer but the poor will be poorer as those with money will no longer be able to afford the gimmickry of the country. The coordinated actions of the world’s central banks has caused our current dilemma and the same fiscal irresponsibility may one day end it. Yet it will not be today and it will not be tomorrow so the game goes on, the shirts get dirtier, the slop of newly minted capital keeps increasing and there is still nowhere to invest off-world and so we are constrained by the lack of choice. In the end probable revolt but for now; the rollercoaster plunge continues. Enjoy the ride.
 
“Well boys, we've got three engines out, we've got more holes in us than a horse trader's mule, the radio is gone and we're leaking fuel and if we was flying any lower why we'd need sleigh bells on this thing.”
 
              -Dr. Strangelove

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

"I am a Socialist, and a very different kind of Socialist from your rich friend, Count Reventlow. . . . What you understand by Socialism is nothing more than Marxism." - Adolph Hitler

GOSPLAN HERO's picture

"There are two patterns for the realization of socialism. The first pattern (we may call it the Lenin or Russian pattern) . . . . the second pattern (we may call it the Hindenburg or German Pattern) nominally and seemingly preserves private ownership of the means of production and keeps the appearance of ordinary markets, prices, wages, and interest rates. There are, however, no longer entrepreneurs, but only shop managers … bound to obey unconditionally the orders issued by government." - Von Mises

nmewn's picture

"To be a socialist means to let the ego serve the neighbour, to sacrifice the self for the whole. In its deepest sense socialism equals service. The individual refrains and the commonwealth demands." - Joseph Goebbels

CH1's picture

I don't see any organized action being possible for a long time

Love your posts, cougar, but organized action is the old way.

Ten million people who simply stop obeying is the new way.

cougar_w's picture

Thank you, I try.

Organized action: We may be talking about the same thing. I am a student of network effects and emergent system properties, and understand these mechanisms better than most. I could certainly see a spontaneous emergent revolt at some point, but not 10 millions. Honestly, I doubt there are that many people who understand even that they are in grave danger at this point. Okay, in 10 years that might change. If things really do get very very bad. Meaning, uncollected dead left in the streets. Then maybe 10 million will get it.

But think on this; the Statists are ahead of us. They are rapidly building out a control and intimidation infrastructure that could easily handle several millions at some point. This is assuming they do not in the interim create a tolerance in society such that it is okay to kill people out-of-hand on pretext of protecting The Sacred American Way of Life (TM). I don't see this being a distopian unlikelyhood at all, and can easily imagine this taking hold in some parts of the nation very easily.

With that as a backdrop, we can probably agree that time is not on the side of an organized uprising. Nor for that matter is technology (even though distributed technology might be the organizing matrix for an unorganized uprising in America just as it was in parts of the Arab world, network security is my current field and I am not confident in a repeat). The window to move many all at once -- via traditional centralized organizational apparatus or via novel self-organizing systems -- is in my estimate rapidly closing.

The far future may be a different picture. But it is a picture that will be painted by those who come after us for I suspect none of us now will live long enough to conceive that work.

trav777's picture

LOL...you people are 20 years behind the curve.

They have already convinced most of you to accept savagery in lieu of your own culture.

Look around you...affirmative action, gay marriage...where the fuck do you think you are, folks?  This is what DEFEAT of all these highminded old ideals looks like.

But you're too scared to be a "bigot" and be ostracized.  You say you study emergent complexity and systems, this should be OBVIOUS to you.

forwardho's picture

Cougar, Not sure if Americans cannot find their way back to reality. It seems there is a collective denial of reality. If one is honest, and sees "what is" we find ourselves staring into the abyss, and what stares back at the clear eyed viewer is truly horrific. The koolaid of lies is so much easier to believe, for the "reality" of the truth is abject destruction of our cushy safe world.

cougar_w's picture

Then imagine it is not so much a question of can or cannot. But of when.

Many here will agree to the same fear, that the window of dignified action of any kind is closing rapidly. We might have months, we might have a few years, but we do not have as long as we might like and we do not have forever.

What happens then, it is harder to say. But it might come to pass that after a long enough time, all the patriots you could muster might not be enough to dent the armor of the modern techno-dictatorial State.

HANKREARDON's picture

Is it actually a fact that you can't eat gold? Anyone?

Harbanger's picture

Better yet, you can eat whatever you want to buy with it.  Fiat won't buy you shiiiit.

CH1's picture

Is it actually a fact that you can't eat gold? Anyone?

I've defnintely sucked down some in Goldschlagger!

No problems... aside from too much Goldschlagger. :)

lynnybee's picture

Is it actually a fact that you can't eat gold? Anyone?   i ate gold.   i was at the top of the Burj al Arab in Dubai last year with my daughter & she ordered one of their famous cappucinos with gold flakes on top of the foam.    the waiter said they were good for you & since i luv gold, i drank them.    YES, YOU CAN EAT GOLD & I DID IT !!   (vote me up, please?) 

falak pema's picture

Get it while you can, Banksta mafia, this lady now will be gunning for you!

Elizabeth Warren Gets Senate Banking Committee Nod

best news in DC town. 

If she shoots the wheels off shadow banking when the economy goes over the fiscal cliff; that will be some cliff hanger moment. 

flacon's picture

Is Elizabeth Warren a good guy or a bad guy? All I know is that she's a politician and I know only one good politician (Ron Paul) and he's about to retire. 

falak pema's picture

well anybody gunning at the banks; if you have been at ZH for some time...needs no explanantion. 

flacon's picture

Alan Grayson was against the banks but was a flaming statist.... 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXlxBeAvsB8

NidStyles's picture

Gunning at the Banks doesn't mean anything. It just means she is either trying to get paid by them, or she is auditioning to be the next fraudster like Bachmann was.

 

It takes more than a few comments to be an honest individual. It also takes quite a bit of honesty to not be a statist waiting to get paid off. It's a game for these people and some of them know how to get paid a little better than others. People like Maxine Waters are complete shills and go for real cheap. This lady you spoke about likely want's more money.

falak pema's picture

well someone has to be honest in the US or that country has no future.

And don't tell me its Von Mises's ghost! I don't believe in Ayn Randish and gold brandishing holy grailers. 

Besides, if the cake comes apart we will need those who aren't part of the PREVIOUS scam when the rats climb out of the wood work; and of that she wasn't, that is VERY CLEAR. 

NidStyles's picture

See that ignorance you just displayed is part of the problem. You simply do not understand a thing you are trying to communicate well enough to properly be honest or access the situation.

 

This is not me attacking you , this is me being honest and pointing at the deficiencies in your understanding. Lest you accidentally confuse this reply. Text formats are hard enough to conveigh ideas properly. 

 

You can not compare Mises to anything without having actually read it. I have read almost every relevant Progressive, Socialist, and Communist writer. I understand the ideas to a reasonable extent. It's time for you to make the leap and start reading across the isle too. To note, I conside the Neo-Cons as Progressives, in case that point was missed somewhere in my commentary.

 

falak pema's picture

I've replied to you before I'll reprint it here again. I don't buy your  theory, here's why : 3053864

 on libertarian theory and no political roots to it in reality. 

debate aint about spouting libertarian dogma, like it was Godlike and evident truism bestowed on man by new Moses of Mises.

Just to give you an historical example of a truly sincere, intelligent but dogmatic man who got caught in his own spider's web of dogmatic thought : Thomas of Aquinas.

He decreed in the debate between Enquiry and Dogma that enraged the middle ages : that for those who believed in God no proof of his existence was required and for those who did not no proof was acceptable. Thus debate over.

The whole thread of humanity subsequently proved that thesis wrong. Dogma gave way to the process of rational enquiry based on empirical fact as the vital thread of human progress.

So CB when you say others "troll" 'cos they don't agree with your version of new libertarian dogma, you just repeat Saint Thomas of Aquinas. 

I prefer to adhere to the whole process of agnostic enquiry; where empiricism and fact and logic define what works and what doesn't work in society. 

IN NO NATION STATE OF MAN SINCE CAESAR'S DAYS HAS THE MONETARY THREAD IMPOSED ITS WILL ON THE POLITICAL POWER THREAD. 

So if that is the verdict of history, no witch doctor like Mises is going to solve humanity's problems. It'll take "belling the cat" in the name of people and democracy, AND THAT, is not on the libertarian page of values.

You guys ONLY knee jerk in terms of "ME FIRST". And that creates no social cohesion, just dissension. 

THAT IS THE ACHILLES HEAL OF THE LIBERTARIAN CONSTRUCT. ITS TOTALLY ANTI-SOCIAL. 

AND HISTORY JUST KICKS THE ASSES OF ALL WHO GO THAT ROUTE; UNLESS THEY BECOME DICTATORIAL.

So that is the final destination of the libertarians : Caesar's rule.

No libertarian has ever here on ZH presented a political program that is viable as a social model and a grass roots based power construct. Its ALL theory and mumbo jumbo. Ron Paul worship. And look where that leads.

Second American revolution? It'll take more than words! 

Now you can call me troll! Brother fool. 

PS/HINT : you won't find the answer in economic BOOKS. Look and see the real history of the world of which economic theory is a very limited and imperfect image; at best. 

NidStyles's picture

It doesn't matter what you buy. Reality is reality, I do not need platitudes to point out that your reply is nothing more than emotional sophistry. Mises didn't create a Theory, he merely described things how he saw them. Like I said, you have never read his work, so you can't be honest with your critique. If you can't be honest with yourself or the rest of us, how can you expect someone else to be honest? Isn't that what you would call a double-standard?

^^^^^See that right there, that is what Mises taught me. You should read his work, you would learn something.

 

"no social cohesion"-

See this the problem, you think that there is some sort of greater social fabric, but there isn't. It's just a bunch of individuals walking around commencing in exchanges on an individual basis. I've heard Socialists and Progressives call themselves pragmatic, and the irony of that never makes them understand that these social cohesion ideas are just that, IDEAS.  They never even catch the irony of it all.

All the ideas in the world will not save you when you can not afford to protect yourself from the starving masses.

Remember what I said about honesty, it's not just a singular event, honesty is total encompassing thing. It's how you live, how you speak, how you dress, and how you behave in every situation. It's not just telling the truth after raping and murdering an entire region. If you are going to be honest, you have to live honestly. You do not just one day decide to become a Saint and all is good, it's something you have to work at every single day. I will tell you it's not easy at first, but it get's easier the longer you do it. 

 

falak pema's picture

It's just a bunch of individuals walking around commencing in exchanges on an individual basis....

It summarises your misconception of history and social construct. You really think that people can live in a "freedom from responsibility to others" vacuum. Its never worked. Its not human reality. 

There is a hidden hand behind the curtain and those people are manipulated in all societies. Fighting that collective manipulation is the eternal struggle in history. Don't make it a mundane thing. Social cohesion comes from collective vision of that manipulation in each age and in each social construct. 

Your libertarian meme, will inevitably make you chose the side of the manipulating oligarch, NEVER the side of the manipulated many. That's the verdict of history on those who piss in the wind singing "I'm free". You ain't, and you'll have to fight for it. And you'll need the others if you believe in collective freedom, or what's the best version of it in real world. 

It'll never be a bunch of individuals who run the world on an ad hoc basis like children in heaven. It'll ALWAYS be a power construct of people who have a hidden agenda. The light and the dark faces of public power, its always been social reality in history. Wake up. You are not living in an individual vacuum, and this impression is prevalent 'cos you live in a land that ostensibly says "you are free" but in fact manipulates you thru corporate pressure like nowhere else. Droneistan for others, soft peddling for US citizens, but pressure nevertheless. 

If the collective wealth of that land disappears you will become what the 1930s were in the USA. And you will pray for big government to step in. Thats the political cycle in current history<.

I didn't invent it. If you think we can invent another cycle, good for you, but it won't be based on Ron "WhO?", he is toast.

Find a new leader with a real program. It ain't the tea party either. Nothing there but hot air in the libertarian creed, all happy with USA, USA in reality...pull your nose out of the theory and look at reality in the face. 

PS  : not saying statism is the resolution; balance between state and civil society, open accountability and separation of powers without regulatory capture is nearer to it. 

A Lunatic's picture

He decreed in the debate between Enquiry and Dogma that enraged the middle ages : that for those who believed in God no proof of his existence was required and for those who did not no proof was acceptable.

 

Blatant lie. He offered up no less that five philosophical proofs (which stand unchallenged today) of God's existence.

Umh's picture

He was so vague and abstract that rational people gave up on responding. Sort of like the meaning of is by Bill Clinton.

A Lunatic's picture

That's the same reason the FED has total control of the global economy. There is nothing rational at all about a direct refusal to comprehend the intricacies of faith or finance............

falak pema's picture

lol, now that takes the cake, PROOF of god's existence.

You truly belong in the LiBERTARIAN meme brigade.

Pareto's picture

You're a retard.  There is NOTHING anti-social about libertarianism because its economic construct requires that you be the exact opposite!  In order for me to become better off, I have to first help somebody else become better off, which if I read you correctly is in stark contrast to the welfare state which requires only that a majority of ass clowns such as yourself find it in the public interest to leach off of everybody else everywhere and always.  The former is predicated on accountability to one another through the market place, while the latter is predicated on coercion, outright theft and plunder of resources and a prevalent threat of force for those that do not comply with arbitrary ad hoc redistribution fantasies.  Humanity got screwed by the State, not by me jackass.  And finally, give one example where Ron Paul was/is SUBSTANTIVELY dead wrong, and I'll eat my hat.

The only thing I know is this.  Virtually every welfare state in the world is hemoraging because it can't even manage a two house paper route.  The collective machine is run by self interested individuals - should we have expected anything different?  Because, I also know that the state doesn't give a shit about my welfare and it never has.  It only cares about how much I provide it, and that's a fucking business model destined to fail.  Of course, you won't find that lesson in economics texts either.  There is a limit to which the state can continue fleecing everybody with impunity.  Sooner or later (preferably sooner) this design of perpetual confiscation of people's rights and property ends.  And I look forward to that day when the only thing that Marx got right was that eventually the state will just "whither away".  Libertarianism will be a consequence of and not a substitution for state capitalism - imperfect as libertariansim might be.

NidStyles's picture

Not bad, I like where your head is. You could clean it up a bit as a single simple logic chain usually works better than the emotional content. That you are thinking is a good thing at the least though.

 

I may contend that Libertariansim may be imperfect, but then again so are humans. Perhaps the perfect system of anything is the one that doesn't aspire to be something human's are not, which is perfect. This is the way I think about it at least.

 

Rothbard was a damn genius. I honestly think people like him only come once every other generation. Let's hope we can find a new Rothbard out there sooner rather than later.

falak pema's picture

you are still counting the number of angels that can sit on a pin head...dream on Libertarian, like the orthodox clerics of Constantinople in 1453. 

Theory that never sees the light of day as its impractible and as evanescent as proof of God. 

If you want to see God just look at Caesar! Thats libertarianism in reality! 

NidStyles's picture

So you gave up replying to me and dodged me while I was on eh? That tell's me that you are a troll and you really have no argument.

 

If that is the case, I will make an effort to single you out from now on rather than ignoring your flacid arguments. I might be on vacation for a few weeks, so enjoy the peace while it lasts.

falak pema's picture

what reply do you want ? its all there for you to read. 

You have no basis in political history to bolster your case. Just look back at 200 years of US history and then tell me where you see your libertarian creed bearing fruit. I'll tell you where!...in 1929.

So go troll your country's real history, you inbred, dogmatic, navel gazing, head-up-your-know-what theoretician of freedom in irresponsibility clout and shout. Find yourself a real leg to stand on, not Von Mises's Talmud or Ron Paul's Gospel.

The real world is what it is and its libertarian greed all dressed up in purple robes of Caesar of DC; corporate USA.

That's the reality I see. Where's yours? In Shangrila? 

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

 

 

start reading across the isle too

 

Aisle. Just sayin'. Unless we're talking about catching up on Swift, Yeats and Joyce. Love your posts -- consistently clear and well reasoned.

NidStyles's picture

Isle, because it's more like we are opposite sides of the Island. Haven't you read the Caruso metaphors?

 

Thanks for the compliments.

Harbanger's picture

This lady want's to be a cherokee chief in the NWO.

AllWorkedUp's picture

If she was actually going to be gunning for the banks she wouldn't have been elected. She's from the land of Bahnee Fwank, they haven't put out a decent politician - ever.

Aziz's picture

I think she has good intentions but she's part of the Democratic machine.

kliguy38's picture

She's as good as a politician be "good". Unfortunately it may be analogous to being a Cy Young winner on the KC Royals.......its still not gonna win ya a World Series

DosZap's picture

Is Elizabeth Warren a good guy or a bad guy? All I know is that she's a politician and I know only one good politician (Ron Paul) and he's about to retire.

 

Well she is another tard, claiming to be a Native American Cherokee blood, and had ancestors in the Trail of Tears, and has ZERO proof of any of it.So another fruitcake in that regard, I could claim to be 25% Cherokee and it would be truthful, she has had NO proof of a huge issue used against Scott Brown.

Minority Status, more like Minority Report.

silverserfer's picture

spook the herd already! lets get it on!

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The herd has been slaughtered like buffalo on the Great Plains.

A Lunatic's picture

Well Let's just leave their bloated carcasses for dead and get on with it then...............

Angus McHugepenis's picture

I think the herd might be finally getting spooked. I was in Home Repo yesterday. As I walk up to the checkout there's an older woman behind the counter and she says, "Will you be putting your purchases on your Home Depot credit card today"?

I broke out into laughter and gave her a quick (but friendly) rant about what I thought about credit cards. She says, "I know, but I have to ask anyway". So I pay cash for my whopping $11 worth of hardware and then she says, "Cash is much more in fashion these days". I asked what she meant. She says, "I see a lot more people paying cash rather than using credit cards these days". And this in oil-soaked Alberta where every 18 year old oil worker drives a $70k 4x4.

I see a couple possible reasons for this:

1 - People are waking up about using credit cards and going into debt in general, or...

2 - They simply pissed away all their earnings and maxed out the cards/loans they already have and simply can't get anymore credit.

Pareto's picture

Door #2 Angus.  Nobody is waking up to fuck all.

Angus McHugepenis's picture

Yeah, I just tossed in Door #1 cuz I was too fucking lazy to think of anything as unique as a Krugman alien attack.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The news from both sides of the sphere is making me drousy. 

We know the MSM has no fucking clue what is going on but all the charts and talk about debt and GDP and fiscal unsustainability is making me tired.  Economics is a sham and finance is a market of theft - what else needs to be said?

Everyone go home, grab a cold one or roll one, look into the eys of your loved ones, and remember what really matters.