Gold - It's Time

Tyler Durden's picture

Authored by Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QBAMCO,

Gold bugs can’t understand how the public can be so unaware, how highly intelligent policy makers can be so immoral, and how the mainstream media can be so incurious. We can’t understand why more men and women in the investment business haven’t joined some of the more successful ones that have come around to precious metals and have taken substantial positions in them for their funds and personal accounts. The list of high profile independent-minded investors that have come out of the proverbial closet is impressive and growing: Kyle Bass, John Paulson, David Einhorn, George Soros, Bill Gross and Paul Singer, to name only a few.

Conventional financial asset selection guidelines for professional investors are becoming increasingly uneconomic and problematic. Current macroeconomic conditions leave little doubt as to why. A zero-bound rate structure across developed economies, heavy monetary policy intervention, guaranteed negative real returns of benchmark financial assets and cash, impossible discount cash flow models,cacophonous (and economically meaningless) fiscal political wrangling diverting attention from legitimate budget arithmetic ($800 billion over ten years when we’re running $1 trillion-plus annual deficits?), dubious short and intermediate-term prospects in already-emerged emerging economies, and non-trending financial markets, all suggest something has changed.

Regardless of whether one is investing personally or as a fiduciary, conventional financial asset allocation models and procedures are obviously failing and the reason is simple: the currencies in which financial assets are denominated are gravely flawed – levered beyond reconciliation and incapable of generating positive real returns for assets denominated in them, or ongoing consumer and business confidence while the leverage is being transferred from banks to central banks, and from central banks to government balance sheets. The political/policy dimension is boxed. We think prudence demands stepping away from conventional financial asset allocation models.

Here is what matters...

Qbamco - It's Time

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MeelionDollerBogus's picture


The dip is in the 1600's:

2012 11 05 277week ROC -goldpricemodel

goldpricemodel 2013 projection

math basis links (ROC rolled forward) are in descriptions.

The RISE, however, is steep so if you think the upper (green) bounds are where the prices stay rather than dipping to the red lows, maybe you'd want to average in now. For those with the cash, some gold, some silver, some agq 2x silver or hzu 2x silver for paper profits may be a good combo into May & September.

smart girl's picture

Those are some pretty freaking awesome charts MeelionDollerBogus

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I know. Not failsafe, not error-free but in the long-game the errors are visible & clearly not frequent. They are big enough to fuck up a one-directional play long/short on leverage, however, so mind your step. Notice 2011 January. Oopsies for shorts.

Hope they help. Hopefully one day I'll make an AI to spot the patterns though I'm still stuck on how to spot the need for a sinusoidal kernel function. In the end I spotted that manually and not for recent use - that was from 2 years ago with 131 day rate of change predicting gold prices.

** addendum: Ex Numerus: How to fit a sine wave – An example in Python

Where I needed it: gold price model part 7 (I did it manually, the python code idea is to automate the process for any chart, any time period)

Top_Kill's picture

These psychos just keep pusing it lower. Looks like Santa is coming early. Hopefully I get another stack of silver in the 20's!

MsCreant's picture

"Looks like Santa is coming early."


(I sorry, I could not stop myself.)

SilverIsKing's picture

They will sit on the paper price until there's no physical left.

Flakmeister's picture

Hate to say it but the ZeroHedge Sell Gold oscillator is start to approach over-hyped again...

Vendetta's picture

for the 0.01 % of investors that actually invest in PM's, it probably is over-hyped.

BLOTTO's picture

I understand why the masses aren't aware...the conditioning is thick & heavy.


The brainwashing is constant...every day - but an IV stuck in the arm...drip by drip (although it does seem the pace is quickening for a reason).


Our global occult leaders are NOT stupid. 'They' are very smart. Thats why they recruit intelligent people to join - not losers. But of course in the end the recruits (are losers) and will be sacrificed after having served their purpose.


Anyway, before i get carried away as usual on a tangent...


Whats going on in this world is unfathomable for the masses to comprehend or believe - and in that lies the genius of it all on their part and this whole scheme.



trav777's picture

oh lord...everything is a sinister plot.

They're so brilliant they look like idiots and that's the brilliance of it all?  Wow.

knowless's picture

They have to be relatable, whether sinister or not, there's definitely plotting, that truly is not debatable..

Pariah, scapegoat, whatever it is.
Whether they are truly ignorant is irrelevant.

But yes, i agree, most people are in fact just stupid, especially those who think their plans infallible.

knowless's picture

Foolish and gullible. Gold will hit hard then correct skyward during the last week of debate, 21st (mayan style, date coinciding) will be played for all it's worth to whip up frenzy, seeds sewn.

Everything is it's opposite inverted.

The first paragraph will not be how things happen.

Most likely just gently climb range bound in low 1700s, nothing fast until actual legislaytion.

Vendetta's picture

don't forget the brainwashed aspect of it.  Brainwashing can work on the brilliant and the dumb.  What I find astounding is how hard it is to get anyone to read something about the PM topic just to investigate it a little bit.  Perhaps all they know is the usual MSM outlets and can't get past the bloomberg or 'The Economist' articles.

BLOTTO's picture



What kind of plots got us to this posioned, manipulated, lied to, perverted point in 2012 on this sick planet?

Good plots?


Or sinister plots?

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

trav-clone? Isn't the real trav a trav7777 ? Ya, link shows it.

Seriously, so many chess pieces move in synchrony for a long-con and so many idiots believe every last word they say. So either they're very clever for keeping all the pieces moving together at the right pace, or they've very clever because by contrast the bar is actually pretty fucking low.

Al Gorerhythm's picture

You dumb, disingenuous fuck They're PRINTING money to pay their bills. (That's not criminal or conspiratorial?) They're counterfeiting money without the intent of earning it. They're issuing money without wealth creation to back it. They're defrauding the earners of paper script. We have to work for it, the government worker and bankers just have to print it. We have to chase yield, they control the yield. Interest rates are zero, money supply is without restraint.  

You have to be either the most gullible long term member of this site of just the dumbest blockhead out there. You learn nothing and offer nothing.

"Wow" is an understatement, coming nowhere close to the descriptor that encapsulates the shallowness of your drivel.

Martdin's picture

Long Bipolar markets.

akak's picture

"Because gold is honest money, it is disliked by dishonest men."


- Ron Paul, The Case For Gold

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Let's start a count of dishonest men...

What come after a quadrillion?

akak's picture

I am not sure, but a unit of 16 trillion is now officially known as a "tad", which is equivalent to one "Bernanke".

Mike in GA's picture

quadrillion and 1

any more math questions?

10044's picture

congrats Tyler...algos now scan zerohedge to see when they should go apeshit and dump gold, just went down $12

Xanadu_doo's picture

I hereby formally request more gold bug articles. Let's drive it back to 1600, then 1500 and then 1200. Please oh please!

Duffminster's picture

The anti-Gold Cartel is hard at work in the thinly traded access markets tonight trying to mask the inflationary actions the Fed announced today.  If you are looking to get into gold, these bear raids provide an excellent opportunity to get into silver and gold at prices that will never be so low again.   The TBTF bullion banks that do the dirty work for the US and British central banks and possibly for China looking to aquire physical at lower prices have been heavily capping today and are pushing prices lower in the spot and access markets.   The manipulation is so blatant given the fundementals that one can only guess how long these quasi-officially mandated criminal activities can continue.  Time to back up the truck and load up.  Even the mainstream financial planner says you should have at least 10% in PM's during NORMAL times and trust me, these are not normal times.

The sentiment in gold remains so lack luster even as the fundamentals have never looked so good.  What is so lacking in the broader investment media community (MSM) is the understanding of the fact that gold silver remain an incorruptible form of savings, and which I consider to be the only real hard currency, which is is not encumbered by practically un-repayable debt burden.   Over the last 10 years gold has maintained about a 7% of real return after inflation.   Compare that to negative real rates of return on Treasury bonds.  When  interest rates stay below the inflation rate, as they have for most of the lastdecade, the incentive is to save in the form of gold and other hard assets.  As you point out to Marc, until the deficit drops to say less than 1/4th of its current levels, short of the US claiming bankruptcy, which isn't going to happen, the Fed has no real choice (in support of the banks its represents) other than to continue buying the debt that foreign and domestic buyers are increasingly shunning because it costs them to do so due to the negative real interest rates.   This is not "stimulus".  Its the only means of maintaining the TBTF banks who are so integral to the operation.   Today the Fed announced it will be making a major expansion of the amount of debt it owns on its balance sheet with the $4 trillion mark close at hand.   If not for the major intervention by the major bullion banks to cap gold, gold would be up 20% today in my opinion.  The continued manipulation in the paper gold and silver markets offer long term and well educated investors and those seeking to preserve wealth long term a continuing opportunity to move their wealth into hard currency.   The suppressive actions of these hand full of bullion banks means that when the laws of economic finally overcome the corruption of manipulation, that the affect will not only be wealth preservation but capital gain in my opinion.  For those seeking to validate the assertions of supression, one only needs to Google GATA, which is the acronym for the Gold Anti Trust Action Committee.    A review of what the Fed did today (all highly gold positive):




Additionally it appears the "sterilization" component of operation twist will be discontinued and I'd guess its because of a relative shortage of short term paper.

nmewn's picture

Benny is my bitch ;-)

MsCreant's picture

Are you a Rothschild?

nmewn's picture

Life gives you lemons, you make lemonade.

You can count on only several things in this life. Your family, one or two best friends in a real pinch, the sun rising in the east and governments going out of their way to destroy their own currencies to keep themselves in luxury.

Its not that I want whats coming, its just that, its what they do and I see it clearly...Jackson knew it, Jefferson knew it etc...and so do you.

MsCreant's picture

Lemonade is mighty good. Don't even need sunshine to make it once you have the lemons. ;-)

stant's picture

lets see bought gold at 800. silver at 11[on top what my dad left me] and kept buying on the dips. even my guns are worth more thanks to the fed. all the big farms surrounding our little old family home place see me replanting the orchard ,grapes and wave and give me a thumbs up. they get it.and my co making money as the farms are spending, everyone awake does here. makes me smile everytime i drive out there

Jungle Jim's picture

Great for you. Not so great for those of us who came later to the party. 

scatterbrains's picture

or did someone leak a plan to take us over the cliff a few minutes ago?


DavosSherman's picture

" the reason is simple: the currencies in which financial assets are denominated are gravely flawed – levered beyond reconciliatio"

And one more thing, we're not "gold bugs" dickheads---we just are the first to see what is going on, the last will win the Darwin Award.

FreeMktFisherMN's picture

Wow, just look at the waterfall in PMs tonight. I guess it makes sense. I mean, it's not like they're printing 85 bn/month on top of PPT/NY Fed ramp up injections.

The Swedish Chef's picture

What the fuck just happened? Someone swept the book over there in Asia... No, precious metals aren´t manipulated, sell the for FRNs now. 

Catflappo's picture

I guess somebody decided that their 'genuine sell order' was far better off getting executed at $1700 than $1720 a few hours earlier.

They may even get a job on a trading desk displaying skills like that.

Stuart's picture

skynet controls the markets.  big brother controls skynet.   Free markets - RIP!

The US dollar caught a bid and there was no reason for it to catch a bid.  ... Pure 100% bullying of markets by official hands. 

Revolution is around the corner.


AllWorkedUp's picture

Let's hope so. These guys need to be decapitated.

hairball48's picture

Someone asked, "What's the media gonna say?" No shit! :) What will those media nitwits say when the markets collapse this time?

I listen to Bloomberg a good bit as I drive while working. Bloomberg is the least bad financial news network on my XM sat radio. It's fascinating listening to people like Kathleen Hayes, a long time "Fed watcher" and her clueless side kick Vonnie Quinn(cute girl with a nice Irish accent though) go on about "The Fed" with their guests day after day. "The Fed" is all they can talk about.

So when the shit hits the fan, I'll be interested to see what these brainless twits say. Who/what will they blame the collapse on.


Miffed Microbiologist's picture

This is why I can't watch/ listen to any MSM anymore. There is no investigational reporting, no challenging questions asked of guests, no debate. Everything is scripted and no feathers are ever ruffled. My mom was an investigational reporter in the 60s and70s. Her editor was Pierre Salinger, JFK's press secretary. She quit in the late 70s because she felt the news had been corrupted by taking outside advertisement therefore became profitable. She found that unacceptable due to the possibility of conflict of interest. She had me sit down and watch many newscasts with her, afterwards always asking " where was the bias in that report?". So my "shitometer" is quite sensitive. Watch the news as you would any reality show like "Survivor", thats about the level of info you're's just entertainment, treat it as such. Oh and if the SHTF, don't worry some one will had them a piece of paper to read and I'm sure it won't point to the REAL reasons!


Tommy Gunner's picture

I only follow MSM to see what lies they have published - then I skip to ZH and look for the real story behind the lies.

A couple of exceptions - The Globe and Mail - and The Telegraph out of the UK - they are the best of a bad lot

Hi Ho Silver's picture

They'll be too busy eating out of trash bins to answer questions.

Freddie's picture

The media will say how wonderful our mullah is, which is what they say everyday. Anyone who sys an unkind word is a racist.

dbTX's picture

Fight the FED with PM's

Intoxicologist's picture

Speaking of raids, I logged in to my bank account last night to discover about a dozen unauthorized charges off my new, just-activated debit card.  My cards never leave my house, new or otherwise.  Anyway, whilst talking to the Fraud Team, it seems most of the charges were to some "charitable organization" that donated my hard-earned money to.....get this....


Holy christ, I know he's trying like hell to break people, but does he have to rip it directly out of my checking account??!!!

(Intox had a big ole temper tantrum outside afterwards and needs a new phone, thanks to impact with giant oak tree.)

There's a reason I keep next to nothing in a bank account.  The rep on the phone said a whole slew of other charges were denied due to lack of funds.  I hope the bitch that was going shopping on my dime got equally pissed off, spewing, "Aw, shit! This bitch don't have no money!"

Freddie's picture

Beware of debit cards.  You are better off using a credit card and paying it off each month. Debits cards appear to be easily compromised.

Dear mullah will be back for your IRA and 401K in the future plus any gold or guns.

MsCreant's picture

I don't know if I should tell you I laughed hard at your post or not...

I am genuinely sorry for your troubles, would only wish it on an enemy. But if it ain't happening to you, that shit is funny...I'm still really can't make this stuff up.

dragoneyes74's picture

Gold and silver are broken.   Don't know what it will take.  Some kind of fiscal cliff resolution?  Debt ceiling expansion?  There's danger of a complete washout.