Gold - It's Time

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Authored by Lee Quaintance and Paul Brodsky of QBAMCO,

Gold bugs can’t understand how the public can be so unaware, how highly intelligent policy makers can be so immoral, and how the mainstream media can be so incurious. We can’t understand why more men and women in the investment business haven’t joined some of the more successful ones that have come around to precious metals and have taken substantial positions in them for their funds and personal accounts. The list of high profile independent-minded investors that have come out of the proverbial closet is impressive and growing: Kyle Bass, John Paulson, David Einhorn, George Soros, Bill Gross and Paul Singer, to name only a few.

Conventional financial asset selection guidelines for professional investors are becoming increasingly uneconomic and problematic. Current macroeconomic conditions leave little doubt as to why. A zero-bound rate structure across developed economies, heavy monetary policy intervention, guaranteed negative real returns of benchmark financial assets and cash, impossible discount cash flow models,cacophonous (and economically meaningless) fiscal political wrangling diverting attention from legitimate budget arithmetic ($800 billion over ten years when we’re running $1 trillion-plus annual deficits?), dubious short and intermediate-term prospects in already-emerged emerging economies, and non-trending financial markets, all suggest something has changed.

Regardless of whether one is investing personally or as a fiduciary, conventional financial asset allocation models and procedures are obviously failing and the reason is simple: the currencies in which financial assets are denominated are gravely flawed – levered beyond reconciliation and incapable of generating positive real returns for assets denominated in them, or ongoing consumer and business confidence while the leverage is being transferred from banks to central banks, and from central banks to government balance sheets. The political/policy dimension is boxed. We think prudence demands stepping away from conventional financial asset allocation models.

Here is what matters...

Qbamco - It's Time

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Thu, 12/13/2012 - 19:10 | 3061107 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Well said and accurate. The best way of making money from the not very intelligent though is selling connectors like HDMI plated with gold. It easily makes them worth 10 times more (not).

Mugs gallery: http://www.neoseeker.com/forums/30444/t1304657-gold-plated-hdmi-cables-w...

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 23:27 | 3058299 This just in
This just in's picture

Got an argument with Freegold?  Now's your chance to step up!  fofoa.blogspot.com

Bring it!

 

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 23:36 | 3058321 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Looks like both Gold & Silver are down 2% in Asia; tomorrow might be a buying opp.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 23:42 | 3058329 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

But at least the property market is recovering!!!!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 00:02 | 3058366 Mr. Hudson
Mr. Hudson's picture

Why does gasoline and gold go up and down together?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 00:06 | 3058371 akak
akak's picture

Tradition

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 00:40 | 3058434 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

Laughing out loud, Akak, because I know exactly what that is from (Why don't they hold diamonds?) 

 

 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 00:54 | 3058454 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

short answer: they don't. Commodities all generally move together as they are not-paper vs stuff that is paper BUT they have their own diverse patterns, in minutiae - copper, silver, gold, oil, gas, land, sugar, corn, wheat

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 01:44 | 3058511 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

But the inflation the Fed has created will drive them all up. Sure, things like weather affect corn, but that is just supply/demand fluctuation of the underlying asset. The other supply/demand is with dollars, and there are more dollars, and therefore the prices get bid up. 

 

 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 01:06 | 3058476 AlwaysTheFinest
AlwaysTheFinest's picture

Great post, can't wait for gold to shine

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 01:08 | 3058480 goldsansstandard
goldsansstandard's picture

Riding BART to Berkeley, I had a conversation with a Swiss German doctoral student in computer science, specializing in cyber security.
When the topic came to bit coin, he said that it is a poor store of value due to it's volatility.

Given his credentials, I'm guessing he is gunning for a career with the big banksters.

Ever since the crash of bit coin from 12 to 8 , I figured that the PTB are doing the same with Bit coin that they do with gold, only it's less than pocket change to accumulate, then dump.
I suspect that front running them might prove profitable., buying the dips and selling the rips.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 01:13 | 3058486 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Some people know what the USSA does with the treasury secret slush fund called the Exchange Stabilization Fund.

 

Read it on up Boris.

And I recomend learning about it to everyone.

 

It most likely is resposible for lots of the gold price supression game.

ESF is the gold bugs enemy.

Know yor enemy.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 02:26 | 3058552 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

just keeps getting hammered down. Wouldn't be shocked to see Ag down 3% come open tomorrow.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 02:44 | 3058556 MustacheCashStash
MustacheCashStash's picture

Gold and Silver is so yesterday. I like my PM's without any paper manipulation. Cuz nothing is sexier than physical PM's coming in "sponge" packaging. Rhodium and Rhenium...Bitchez.

Besides, If that trade doesn't work out I can always go into the jet engine fabrication and electroplating businesses....I bet I can even get a loan from my Dear Uncle Sam. I just hope his printer doesn't run out of toner.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 02:48 | 3058569 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

check out the yahoo finance silver page. Not SLV but just silver if you go to the commodiites on the bottomish side right. Huge spike up then back down here at 12:40 central time is when I looked at it. Kitco prob has it removed already.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 04:03 | 3058600 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

One thing I fail to understand is that why most analysts are recommending the purchase of Gold, Silver, Oil as a investment to hedge against inflation? The problem today is that the price of Gold and other commodities is not derived by it’s physical demand or supply but more by the speculative positions standing long or short on the commodity exchange like any other traded commodity, stock or currency.

The basic mechanism of price discovery (based on demand and supply for actual use) of anything traded on an exchange has been terminally infected by speculators having access to unlimited funds and super fast computers for trading leading to volatile price swings. This has been made worse by the launch of ETFs for anything and everything under the sun by the financial community.

The price of everything including Gold is likely to suffer when the speculators unwind their positions due to some event that they have not anticipated or foreseen.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article35345.html

www.letstalkmoney2012.in

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 04:05 | 3058602 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Gold is being panned; now trading below 1700. Oh yes, must represent a once in a lifetime buying opportunity.....

The only catalyst for Gold going forward is going to be war; Syria/Iran. In the short term, it does not have a leg to stand on.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 04:05 | 3058603 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Gold is being panned; now trading below 1700. Oh yes, must represent a once in a lifetime buying opportunity.....

The only catalyst for Gold going forward is going to be war; Syria/Iran. In the short term, it does not have a leg to stand on.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 04:14 | 3058608 e-nergy
e-nergy's picture

This is a paper from the future!!!! It is dated December 2013 ...

 

lol

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 04:14 | 3058609 e-nergy
e-nergy's picture

This is a paper from the future!!!! It is dated December 2013 ...

 

lol

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 04:18 | 3058612 TeddyBear
TeddyBear's picture

The GODs must be crazy

"conventional financial asset allocation models and procedures are obviously failing and the reason is simple:"

NOT!!!

Gold will go down, buy after x=mas.

ETF new 52 week highs!!

this is a trend, is it not?

!!! EWQ France Index!!!
TAX the rich - new 52 week high.

52 Week Highs  
AAXJ     All Country Asia Ex            
AIA     S&P Asia 50 Index             
ALD     Asia Local Debt ETF             
AUD     Australia Bond Index      
BBRC     Egshares Beyond Bric      
BSJE     2014 HY Crp Bond Bul      
CGW     S&P Global Water Ind      
CHXF     Wisdomtree China Div      
COLX     Colombia ETF Market      
CUT     Timber Guggenheim      
CZA     Midcap Core Guggenhe      
DBV     DB G10 Currency Harv      
DEW     Global Equity Income      
DFE     Europe Smallcap Divi      
DLS     Intl Smallcap Divide      
DOL     Intl Largecap Divide      
DTH     DEFA Equity Income      
DWM     DEFA Wisdomtree             
ECON     Emrg Mkts Consumer      
EEMV     Emrg Mkts Min Vol      
EFA     EAFE Index MSCI Isha      
EFAV     EAFE Min Volatility      
EFG     EAFE Growth Index      
EFV     EAFE Value Index MSC      
ELD     Emrg Mkts Local Debt      
EMHY     Emrg Mkts High Yield      
EMLC     Emrg Mkts Local Curr      
EPOL     Poland Investable      
EPP     Pacific Ex-Japan MSC      
EUFN     Europe Financials      
EWA     Australia Index MSCI      
EWG     Germany Index MSCI      
EWH     Hong Kong Index MSCI      
EWK     Belgium Investable      
EWL     Switzerland Index      
EWN     Netherlands Invstbl      
EWO     Austria Investable      
EWQ     France Index MSCI      
EWS     Singapore Index MSCI      
EWU     United Kingdom Index      
EWW     Mexico Investable      
EWY     South Korea Index      
EZM     Midcap Earnings Wisd      
EZU     EMU Index MSCI Ishar      
FAA     Airline ETF     33.01             
FCAN     Canada Alphadex Firs      
FEU     SPDR Stoxx Europe 50      
GRES     IQ Global Resources      
GTIP     Global Inflation-Lin      
GWL     SPDR S&P World Ex-US      
GXF     G-X FTSE Nordic Regi      
HYEM     Emrg Mkts High Yield      
IEFA     Ishares Core MSCI      
IEMG     Ishares Core MSCI      
IEV     S&P Europe 350 Index      
IFAS     FTSE Epra/Nareit Dev      
IFGL     FTSE Epra/Nareit Dev      
IFSM     FTSE Dev Sm Cap Ex      
IGEM     Industrials GEMS ETF      
ITIP     Intl Inflation-Linke      
IXG     S&P Global Financial      
IXJ     S&P Global Healthcar      
IYJ     DJ US Industrial Ish      
IYK     DJ US Consumer Goods      
JKG     Mstar Mid Core Index      
JNK     SPDR High Yield Bond      
KXI     S&P Global Consumer      
LEMB     Emrg Mkts Local Cur      
MCHI     China Index MSCI Ish      
PCA     Riverfront Tactical      
PHDG     Powershares S&P 500      
PHO     Water Resources Powe      
PICB     Intl Corporate Bond      
PIE     DWA EM Mkts Technica      
PIZ     DWA Dev Mkts Technic      
PLND     Poland ETF Market      
PSP     Global Listed Privat      
RFG     S&P Midcap 400 Pure      
RPV     S&P 500 Pure Value      
RWX     SPDR DJ Intl Real      
SCHC     Schwab Intl Smallcap      
SCHF     Schwab Intl Equity      
SVXY     Short VIX Short-Term      
THD     Thailand Invest Mkt      
TLTD     Flexshares Morningst      
TLTE     Flexshares Morningst       
TUR     Turkey Invest Mkt      
UPV     Ultra MSCI Europe      
VIS     Industrials ETF Vang      
VNQI     Global Ex-US Real      
VTIP     Vanguard Short-Term      
WIP     SPDR DB Intl Govt      
WOOD     S&P Global Timber      
WPS     S&P Dev Ex-US Proper      
XIV     Daily Inverse VIX      
ZIV     Daily Inverse VIX

Don't fight the tape is a term used in finance. It means do not bet or trade against the trend in the

financial markets, e.g. if the broad market is moving up.

52 Week Lows
CANE     Teucrium Sugar             
CVOL     C-Tracks Citi Volati     
DPK     Dev Mkts Bear 3X Dir      
EDZ     Emrg Mkts Bear 3X      
EEV     Ultrashort MSCI Emrg      
EFZ     Short EAFE MSCI Pros      
EPV     Ultrashort MSCI Euro      
EUM     Short Emrg Mkts MSCI      
FAZ     Financial Bear 3X      
FXP     Ultrashort FTSE Chin      
HDGE     Active Bear ETF      
JO     DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub      
MIDZ     Midcap Bear 3X Direx      
MZZ     Ultrashort Midcap400      
SGG     DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub      
SHM     SPDR S/T Muni Bd Bar      
SJB     Short High Yield Pro      
SMDD     Ultrapro Short Midca      
SUB     S&P S/T Natnl Amt      
TUZ     1-3 Year US Treasury      
UVXY     Ultra VIX Short-Term      
VIIX     VIX Short-Term ETN      
VIXM     VIX Mid-Term Futures      
VIXY     VIX Short-Term Futur      
VXX     VIX Short-Term Futur      
VXZ     VIX Mid-Term Futures      
XVZ     S&P 500 Dynamic VIX.

My last buys:
BRF
RJA
FCG
NLR-The GODs must be crazy
VOX
IXP
TWO
PEY
FDL

and 1 is down-
AT

I would rather buy gold over 2,000 and stop at 2,000.
But I may buy after x-mas, Last year was just too good:)

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 05:10 | 3058650 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Elliott wave count for gold still shows bearish and has for many months.

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/gold-climbs-early-falls-days/

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 07:36 | 3058707 User 3461
User 3461's picture

1000s of billions in debt and climbing. They've ruined the doomed money. You gotta get out of that.

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