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Spot The Odd One Out
A funny thing happened today. For the first time, the equity and bond market closed red (and VIX green) on a Federal Reserve QE-announcement day. Gold outperformed stocks and Treasuries underperformed everything...
The S&P 500 futures contract has never closed red on the day of a QE announcement before...
VIX closed higher for the first time ever on a QE announcement day...
10Y Treasury Yields rose for the first ime ever on a QE announcement day...
From the FOMC announcement, Gold and Silver closed green but stocks, bonds, oil, financials, and apple all lost ground (as did the USD very modestly)...
Across Asset Classes - Treasury yields ended at highs, stocks at lows...
FX markets dominated by JPY weakness and EUR strength...
and across ETFs - there was an attempt to lever HYG (which has worked to grab stocks higher in the past) but it seems like rotation from TSYs to less-duration sensitive HY as stocks and vol tracked each other all afternoon...
Indices post-FOMC
Sectors post-FOMC
Financials post-FOMC - look at BofA's 'odd' move into the close...
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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Not just any QE day, either.
The full Monty, bitches.
Yeah Full Monty with a limpy. Way to work it Bernanke.
I bet he is in his crypt right now beating the dead organ with a stack of freshly printed fiat. Whimpering, "work damn you, work!"
Does it look anything like the objects in your avatar picture?
Ammo, the new gold, bitchez!
Gold, Silver, Platinum, Bullets - the NEW PM Asset Group.
One can dream, can't they?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-W2rTj1bsY
The bernake is a ass hat
Ill be watching TV when an image of the bernake pops up. by natural instinct i say fuck you bernake and flip my tv off.
My wife asks me every time. "why do you hate that guy" my awnser, "because hes an ass hat." she just shakes her head and we carry on with our night.
ooh oooh ooh, I know. Pick me, Mr. Cotter. It's the last one. It's the one not like the others.
Yes it is. And it is saying, "Fuck you, Ben Bernanke."
Every time Benny sings, a bankster gets his things. Wait....wrong movie.
My wife, bless her heart, pretends to understand what I'm telling her. After a few 'printing', 'billions', 'unsterilized', 'inflation', she's still standing there pretending to look interested (undoubtedly stifling a yawn).
I end up by saying, "Our silver's up a bunch today, and will be a whole bunch more soon". That, she understands.
Ah women, their ignorance is cute......till it isn't. You must be recently married. I'd keep half that stack on the side JIC ;)
I try not to tell my wife about whats going on. I want her to live the best normal sheeple life she can before the SHTF. All my gear is for "camping" food storage is for "earthquakes". luckly her grandfather been buying silver since it was $2 an ounce so she doesnt mind the PM stacks.
Its going to be hard to tell her game over when the SHTF. No more cell phones, fancy shoes, and shopping. time to go camping at the ranch for the rest of our lives.
LOL "I want her to live the best normal sheeple life" classic. I watch mine sometimes and wonder WTF is going on inside her head. Troubling but amusing nonetheless. LOL normal sheeple life.
My thoughts are, as long as someone know WTF is going on, like me, then the rest of the family can be ignorant and live in bliss. Might as well let them have what little time left we have living "normal" lives. Me and my old man have our familys future covered in all aspects for the long term.
You must have your home safe stocked with guns, ammo, gold and cash in small bills. What is scary is what you cannot anticipate.
i do the EXACT same thing, my friend.
I provide some watered-down information from time to time so at least she is warmed up to the bigger concepts. Too much information and she goes into rejection mode. The hope is that when the SHTF conversation occurs, it will go more smoothly.
Realistically, the hardest part is the ongoing squeeze. I warned several years ago that we were going to see our standard of living drop and progessively tougher choices will be needed... and this process will continue for what will likely be a long time. I reinforce this notion every once and awhile. It has made changes a little easier - but there is still stress. She, like so many others, does not want to accept reality despite it being evident at our doorstep.
you put it in words better then i could. I do the some thing. everytime we go to the supermarket for food and she gasps at the food cost i always say "its only going to get worse."
She knows the out standing issues and what it will lead too but just doesnt want to talk about it nor does she want to see it.
our area we live in is starting to go down hill. As of last week she no longer feels safe to go out on her own. Shes now accepting the Taser gun I want to give her. ( cant have a gun because we live in california)
Camaro: I'm beginning to notice it too. I used to have packages delivered to my front doorstep, and they'd be there when i got home. Three weeks ago, UPS delivered ("left at front door" tracking..) a package and it was gone, ripped off. Now I deliver to my work address.
BTW, I live in Cali and we're armed to the teeth.
Wow, at least you lot can never be accused of stereotyping. Who ever said chivalry was dead? Your wives must be so proud (if they could think for themselves)...
I try and do the opposite (try being the key word). There needs to be as seemless of a transition as possible from unsustainable sheeple land to whatever may come. The more skills and the more mentally prepared wifey is when going in, the better you'll fare... further, should you not be around (which is what tends to happen to us idiot males vested with protecting things and what not), then she'll be completely lost (and your children with her) if she doesn't learn things for herself. Of course, most of the types of lifestyle changes are not particularly difficult and even cavemen can do them... but, I'd prefer to have redundancy in skill sets where possible (the division of labor still being necessary due to resource constraints/time/efficiency).
Maybe they just needed to hear Blankfein say it.
Not only do Treasuries not keep up with inflation, but interest rates will rise, and they'll pay a fine for wanting out early.
(I,m paraphrasing, of course).
Gee......what's the NEXT safest investment????
yep, it's time for the final preperations now.
Getting the food storage full, hide the PM's and cancel as many credit cards as you can.
Also, for the Ebay silver buyers: close down your accounts and ask for a deletion of your history records. it takes a few weeks to do so.
And start a new account where you buy some other small stuff to erase your silver and gold purchases.
Time is running out. maybe another 12 months at best before panick starts and prices explode.
Silver? gold? guns? lol ooooo yeah i know what your talking about, yeah, I lost it all in this Tragic boating accident i had a few weeks ago. thats where i got this little scrape here.
I am confident that when the Gubmint says jump, eBay will say 'how high'...Big Bro knows all, and he is not a very nice boy
No, it's too late already. You will be found in your little home with all the gold bars stuck in the basement. They will tear off your little arms and carry away all bars and coins before you can even breathe again ... You are doomed, there is now way you can escape the USSA
MONKEYHAMMER TIME!!!
somebody totally screwed up the script today and allowed red stuff
Damn that guy...math. Always forecasting correctly.
Damn math to hell.
Looks like a great place to get the short the S&P futures. Nice big reversal day, close on the lows on a Fed day and the VIX finally poking its head up. Even if we get a cliff deal its going to mean some combination of higer taxes and lower govt spending, neither of which is expansionairy. So short away against todys high.
Point of diminishing returns has been met.
Wait til they put that old twat Yellen in charge... you ain't seen nothin yet!
Chaos theory says first comes dininishing returns then negative returns.
http://library.thinkquest.org/3493/noframes/chaos.html
"The first term, system, can be defined as the understanding of the relationship between things which interact. To better understand this idea, we will examine the example of a pile of stones. The pile is a system which interacts based upon how they were piled. If their initial piling is not in balance, the interaction results in their movement until they find a condition under which they are in balance. A group of stones which do not touch each other, however, are not a system because the interaction between is so minute, it can be considered non-existant."
QEorganizer's
and his faithfull follower (bQE)....GNAMGANSTA-RAPING style "party" is OVER!!!
All the kings horses and all the kings men
Could not get the Dow to close green again
Has anyone ever finished a whole jar of Kirkland Signature Extra Fancy Mixed Nuts from COSTCO? This thing has no bottom!!
No but I'm close on that large can of Macadamia nuts. I swear that weird Hawaiin mono-unsaturated fat was doing strange things to my digestive track.
Like catching all the downwind radiation from Japan that saturates Hawaii and the US West coast now. Walnuts, SUn flower seed, peanuts and Almond anything is off the menu unless it's before Fukishima.
Well so far so good, 2 years down. Another 5400 years to go until the half life decay renders the radiation bleeding into the air and water from the plant is considered inert.
Good times, good times.
Japan? Fukishima? What are you talking about? There is nothing on the news about that.
/sarc
Yes, Fukishima hasn't been fixed, most off the west coast of Canada and the US has been recieving a steady dose for two years. Rice, meat, water that rains in California and Colorado...these aren't closed systems. The earth is the closed system.
http://www.naturalnews.com/036204_Fukushima_radiation_California.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2012-13-30/california-slammed-fukus...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/28/us-japan-nuclear-tuna-idUSBRE8...
http://www.gtweekly.com/index.php/santa-cruz-news/santa-cruz-environment...
http://www.davidicke.com/headlines/76224-california-kiwi-fruit-mutated-b...
http://fukushimanewsupdate.wordpress.com/category/california/
http://fukushimanewsupdate.wordpress.com/category/california/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yw3IQnnKOU8
Japan is a Doomed Metropolis. Radiation goes through everything but lead and uranium's half life is 5400 years until it's non-lethal. High school chemistry should have drilled that into everyone's head or are people now allowed to graduate high school without basic sciences. Maybe just showing my age.
As human's we are amazing at shitting in our own sand box.
I think this is the last desperate act of 12 people who have no idea what the hell they are doing... when in doubt... PRINT !
Not so calming to spend a trillion here, there and everywhere anymore...I have to think most American's and almost all CEOs are shaking their heads wondering why a government can't seem to do any belt tightening...seems that even if they wanted to they can't anymore. This end date probably supercedes Bernanke's get out of town date, I'll bet. Basically this is a keep rates at 3-4% until construction hires 2M people back.
Not a surprise unless you consider that the Fed was buying SnP contracts faster than they were shorting gold and they BOTH went against their paper masters
But wait, didn't Bloomberg say inflation is no concern for bond buyers?
Something is amiss. Maybe they just got it backwards?
Nothing is a concern, until it suddenly is...and then they never heard of you before.
FB IPO great example of this.
Dude ... you came over to ZH for a reason.
What is funny about it? Simple explanation.
There's not much left to trade. Fed + Primary Dealers have basically bought everything up.
Get those guns blazing boys, we need fear in the world to keep those treasuries flying at low rates!! Anything else and it's game over, almost overnight!! One 5 year treasury auction failure in the US and the panic would be unstoppable immediately!!!!
The Cosmic Joke that will be played on the King World News boys:
If gold rebounds and takes off towards new highs,
That means a global economic boom is underway and the Dow will push to 15,000 and beyond in 2013.
I liked the action in gold today, it will be very supportive of stock prices in the future.
Yea too bad you sold your purported gold in the $900's, OH and BTW stocks are for dummies.
'If gold goes up, that means global economic boom'
Yea maybe 'KA-boom'
Isn't it past your bedtime.
Where's your mother ?
Short Treasuries Bitchez
Short Treasuries Bitchez
LawOfPhysics I should have bet a beer with you.
Now an attack is necessary either on Spain or Japan so that sheeple flock to the Treasuries one MOAR time...
Correct, the Fed finally broke their own market, see my post below. Now shit gets interesting as the paradign must shift. Attentions must now be diverted. I am sure there is an "out", identifying that is the next big play. Capitl is very much flowing still, wish I was an insider.
The question is whether or not Bernanke expected that reaction. If he did not BIG BIG trouble. If he did the FDIC end of guarantee should make the curve steeper even by Jan 1st, then one should expect increase in circulation that is true inflation as opposed to price rising not due to increased circulation but due to currency debasement. Margins will suck, PEs will contract and nominal wages increase a bit faster. Rise in nominal GDP yet stock suck, Gold is baffled between end of printing interrogations and true inflation comin, i.e. sideways? Don't know, depends if people dump treasuries or not.
Now where is the next blind spot? Nikkei local consumption stocks?
There are bargains on the HK exchange.
If you go short treasuries, your return is only in terms of the same fiat that will be worthless if you are right. Long the shiny stuff instead.
Nope, shorting treasuries is just not that dimension. When you short treasuries you borrow from Gov at 2.7% for 30 years, you lock the borrowing, than you can play with teh cash and repay confettis in 30 years best case. Many hedge funds want to borrow short term to economize, but if inflation is at 8% in 7 years and short term rates at 5.5%, by being not too greedy and locking borrowing cost long term now at 2.7% is better. Many hedge funds bhave like they are Bear Stearns with warehouse financing short term, with a short on 30Y treasuries you have secured long term financing for your long positions. Now you need to know what to buy. Tobacco shares is the safest in my opinion, it is both inflation and deflation proofed. So never look at the short without looking at the long.
If your short is via TBT you will loose just about no matter what the 30 year does....
Better off buying puts on TLT or selling call spreads....
RUN....Get to da choppah!
Dang it! Well....time to ramp up talk about the next QE event I guess!
Yes, yields went up. Game over. The Federal Reserve is a private bank that just broke it's own market. Like any private bank, the owners/management will shut it down and recover what they can for the shareholders. How much does the treasury owe this private bank again? What are the underlying assets of the U.S. again? Just think about this for a bit.
I suggest that that treasury not renew the Fed's contract and begin printing paper to pay them back. Heck didn't our constitution say the treasury can issue currency as a median of exchange? If the treasury had been issuing currency all along, at least the debt would be owed to the American People. Now it is owed and will be extracted by a few, very successful families. Interesting times.
The clean up side of things would be a bitch. My guess is that by the time the bank is boarded up, the shareholders will already have what they want... and it will be gone. Probably already is.
That is the problem...we do not know what they own.....probably a lot more than we want to know....a lot more
Rothschild wealth has been estimated at $50 Trillion, with a 'T'.... but, yes... it could be far more. but hey, after the parasites are removed... there will be some money there that can be put to good use rebuilding a real culture/economy... and no, this is not communism or socialism... this is seizing stolen property.
Where is this "own" bullshit coming. They are CON men create $$ from nothing and sell the idea that this can be used for commerce. They create it and purchase what they want because WE let them. When WE do not let them what ever they purchased is up for sale to whatever currency will be used after WE decide WE are changing the rules and they are going to prison. Why make this transition more difficult than it needs to be the laws are there they use them on us. Criminal acts = confiscation. Too Bad So sad go get a fucking job. Making money by making money is a dead career.
No, these people very much hold title to a number of physical assets, intellectual property, resource reserves, and other revenue-generating businesses. Where do you think all that interest being paid to the Fed has been going all these years? Moreover, their army of attorneys have changed the laws over the years, they have bought any and all representation where unlimited monies can be put into politics. These people have their own armies that are trustworthy friends with military experience. Please wake up. I could point you to a couple remote and well fortified estates/plantations around the pacific and in the caribean that grow their own food and seem like pleasant "getaways". Go ahead, just try and approach them and you won't even see the infared scope targeting you before you die. These people come from a long line of families that have been very successful. Their children are discipliined and well schooled in how things really work. Think about it, if you built an empire, why wouldn't you pass your secrets to succes on? and if you had the resources why wouldn't you live like that. Please...
But I do appreciate the optimism. Unfortunately, turning this all around is like trying to stop an elephant running down a 30 degree slope. You can't do it without blood (i.e. killing the elephant).
>>>I could point you to a couple remote and well fortified estates/plantations around the pacific and in the caribean that grow their own food and seem like pleasant "getaways". Go ahead, just try and approach them and you won't even see the infared scope targeting you before you die.<<<
Yes, please do point them out.
Ionizing radiation doesn't respect their infrared scopes. And a couple of strong EQs in the Pacific or Carribean will wreck your underground bunker and/or swamp your island.
"They" are hardly invincible...contrary to what you'd like us to believe.
" Empire" ? " What part of fucking CON Job don't you comprehend? Google it.Only God can create something from nothing. The freedom to create money that YOU get to loan out and charge interest on. Something that you can make, Law of physics IF YOU CAN MAKE IT WHY DO YOU NEED TO CHARGE THE PEOPLE YOU LOAN IT TO TO MAKE A PROFIT IN THE SAME SHIT YOU CAN MAKE?
THEFT,CONJOB, Criminal , ARREST, Confiscate.
Will it happen FUCK NO, to many rectums on thier side.
That is the purpose of the Fed....they are seizing 'assets' by printing confetti. They practially own all means of production (land and equipment and medium of exchange aka gold). it is like a big game aka Monopoly.
What is the strategy in Monopoly? Isn't it to get the 'big item tickets' like Parkplace, boardwalk, railraods, electricity....build some house, then hotels, then you sit back and rake in the dough.
These large families got the big item tickets in the late 1800s. they stacked the deck in the early 1900s. it has all been a means of simply acquiring all the additional wealth (ie getting all of the money from the Monopoly bank and purchasing the other players assets) until one player is holding all assets + medium of exchange aka gold. This is such a simple concept that we teach each and everyone one of our kids this rule......
it's going to be an epic storm.
THere are several more acts in this play. Everyone on here is just aching for it to be over. This ain't over by a longshot. We still have all the fiscal cliff agreement rumors. Followed by grand bargain agreement rumors. Followed by some grand bargain where they spend a week discussing how the US is "fiscally sound again". Followed by bullshit job reports.....Everyone settle down. We still have a long ride.
You are talking about theater. Doesn't mean shit. I'd say that the paradigm shift in capital flows is nearly complete. 2013 will be painful for many in America, no matter what the mainstream propaganda and political theater is doing. It's about perspective/respect and when capital and talent are disrespected, they leave. Fine, I hope the baby-mommas and baby boomers are ready to spend whatever stash they have because theather won't sustain them.
LoP
Wish you were right on timing but I think they will struggle thru 2013 and
most of 2014 before the SHTF.
This isn't their first dance ,and they have a couple of fancy moves yet.
Patience.You will be longing for a return to the relative tranquility of these days.
No matter how prepared you think you are,you may well be surprised at how bad this
is going to be.Its been thirty years since I've been shot at, an experience I expect
to relive afresh.Hope I have enough adrenalin left in my older body to handle it.
I don't get out of bed anymore unless my central bank dumps money directly into my 401K
JNK and HYG up 18 consecutive days.
The junk "Paper" boom continues unabated.
Where is the "Recession"?
Where is the "Endgame"?
Where is Noland's "Inflection Point"?
RoboTarders top-ticking return from the dead has been greatly exagerated.
surely it's a sign of a short-term top ... along with mkt's premature ejaculation to FOMC day
I'll take Robo over any of the John Birch Society whackjobs that have been cluttering up the place since Herman Cain was leading the polls....
At least Robo is right ~1/2 the time....
Edit: Should have added that he doesn't understand PO a whit though....
I love you man. One of the few voices of reason among the ZH clones.
Where is your Mom?
I thought she took away your computer.
indeed, writing puts into JNK & holding JNK > 90 days appears to have been useful. Holding > 1 year would be much better but then again from 2011 summer to 2012 spring would be very disappointing for bag-holders then.
Well, what can you do, that's still not too bad if one sold at the localized peak or write calls or buy puts to hedge that's the sensible choice. For the coming drop one might regret taking no hedges. For holding JNK 2 years start-to-finish it's largely flat, however, so holding SPY for that period would have been smarter, again hedging into the regular drops at the 14 month mark since last smash-down, like the one about to happen.
That's not what is supposed to happen when the Bernank throws the " market " a free lunch. The " market " is supposed to show how grateful it is. This kind of behavior will not be tolerated! Kevin you're going to the naughty chair for not hitting the buy button.
Damn INGRATE market peasants! NOW they'll feel the wrath of the vengeful Maniacal Monetizer Gawdz!
somehow, you only believe this shit would happen when it's actually happening...
and nobody cares...
hardly a line on the MSN which will be gone when posts about chinese talking chickens top the interest in clicks...
If a Trillion isn't enough then it's time to start dealing in Quadrillions. Isn't it obvious?
It IS different this time!!!
ruh-roh raggie!
you guys should go over to huffingtonpost and read some of the comments.
"i don't really understand economics, but here's what i think..."
"obama wouldn't have appointed this man if he wasn't a great..."
really puts your average retard in to perspective.
LOL fucktards! Though I love seeing their little sheeple ears perk up and eyes widen a bit at that first whiff of smoke.
Greenspan is dull, Bernanke is a fake bozo, but wicked in reality.
I'm sure if you look at enough of that persons posts I would guess you would find that they have cumulatibively said:
My precious Treasuries are fading....my preciouses....
Expectations pumped the market and the PWG probably went short. Remember, Bernanke has become a banker and is no longer interested in economic finepoints, all he wants to do is make money for the Fed Board.
Law of DIMINISHING RETURNS!!!
Like cocaine....first buzz is the deepest....baby I know....then it's turtle dick while at the same time you'd fuck the crack of dawn!
It's all downhill...the thrill is gone....like mapple products....booooo-ring!
QE5 is going to crash this thing to hell
Desperation. A sign the top of the US Treasury market is now, or just past.
Print $$$ bitchez
The market always closes higher on QE day... until it doesnt.
So, when do we expect QE5... in January?
"Gold outperformed stocks and Treasuries underperformed everything..."
Gee, hoocoodanode.
If you put this chart together with others from ZeroHedge showing the diminishing returns of printapalooza, you come to a very scary conclusion:
http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2012/12/12/one-central-bank-head-depar...
A guy I've been following says the big sell-off starts tomorow and the Dow will be 12,000 within a month. I don't understand half of what he says, but he's nailed pretty much every top and bottom since last summer (including S&P 500 high today at 1484.)
Krugman wants Bubble Bernake to do even more. Super-size it! Go for 150 billion a month. How about double or triple that?
Bubble Bernake can start buying up state debt as well.
Actually bonds dropped big around Sept 17, 2012 when QE3 was announced. They alter recovered. Bonds tanked today when QE4 was announced. They will also recover. Not sure I agree with the bond yield chart above. Perhaps bonds waited a few days after the QE3 announcement on 9/13 before dropping.
SP500 hourly getting close to channel support.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-remains-closing-channel-su...
MACD is turning over too. Look out below!!!