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Gold-to-Silver Ratio Soars By Most In 2012
From the open of the US equity market day-session, gold and silver have diverged aggressively. Gold is notably outperforming silver - in fact today is the biggest jump in the Gold/Silver ratio of the year. The Gold/Silver ratio has also retraced upwards to its 50DMA. It seems there is overall pressure on precious metals post-Bernanke but the relative preference is for Gold so far.
From the start of the US equity day-session, gold and silver have diverged...
Gold/Silver ratio jumps by most in 2012 to catch up to its 50DMA...
Charts: Bloomberg
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silver can destroy jpm. gold, not so much.
gold can destroy the US dollar, which is more dangerous.
JPM is a pissant in the grand scheme of things. Gold can make or break nations.
You mean JPM is not the goverment...?
It must be Goldman Sachs I know it's one of the two,or maybe a mix of both.
Do I take that vacation in Cancun , or stack more silver.......BOTH!!!
check out nicaragua. cheap and beautiful. see how much people can do with little. stack with what you save.
1990 - Present = giant technical bull flag in this ratio. To the chagrin of the silver stackers, the ratio is getting started on its way to new all-time highs above 100
Perfect ~ Can't... It's not like I'm an IDIOT and trade paper prices on it or anything...
"giant technical bull flag"
Bwahahahahahahahah!
The Fed just agreed to monetize 1 trillion a year, and silver is dropping like a rock? The only reliable "giant technical bull flag" appears on a graph where insanity is charted on the x-axis, and greed is charted on the y-axis. Boy, do I hate evil.
I sense a bit of straw grabbing here, i for one am fucked off gold did not break out, not least yesterday and feel as though i',m being slowly but increasingly strangled by CB's here
Exactly, When inflation hits hard, People are going to need the gold and silver price (and mining stocks) to go up so they can buy gas and reasonably good food, assuming salaries doesn't increase, and I don't think there's any danger in that happening.
If someone GAVE me a share of mining stock, I would walk in the nearest coin dealer and trade it for whatever I could get.
I would consider anything over a new issue zinc penny to be a fair price.
new QE announcements don't have the pop on commodity prices like it used to. The comex game is still rigged and futures traders dont want to get their PP slapped again with one of those dirty little margin hikes. Not with silver at $33 range. Burned too many times have they been.
Good time to buy physical silver.
The price is getting brutalized downward right now.
The Phyz price? Have you called around? Like I said above I don't think the actual phyz prices are down that much.
The physical market spot is determined by the paper markets which supposedly reflect the underlying physical supply and demand. When the $1,500,000,000,000,000.00 in derivatives finally unwind the prices of most everything will tank. This includes the "metals" in nominal terms, but NOT the metals purchasing power.
Tuco
The Phyz price? Have you called around? Like I said above I don't think the actual phyz prices are down that much.
No need for me to call, I deal with same folks 95% of the time since '98.
I can buy 1oz Rounds @ $33.54 right now and Am Eagles for under $36.00.
Wainting for it to go to $31.00 or below.
I was referring to eagles and your price sounds right.
Be careful about buying in. The silver price is highly affected by industrial production and a coming recession could force it down. The risk with gold is twofold: all profits are taxed as "income" and the very real risk of it becoming contraband, as it was when I was in my 20's. Due to changes in the tax structure, I would sell a good portion of stocks and park it in (physical) cash. The dollar looks like the least ugly girl in the room right now.
I understand what you're saying, but...
I don't think there is enough alcohol on the planet to make the dollar look good!
"a coming recession"
Bwahahahahaha!
Recession is a direction, not a level. Hence our present "recovery" off the horrible 2008 trouncing. We are still well below the levels of 2007, and still in recovery. When I say recession, I mean a downdraft from where we are now, that is, a negative DIRECTION.
The USD is trading where it was in the fall of 2008 (around 80) while gold has risen from 700 to 1700. Silver 9 to 32.
UE is much higher. Food stamps are at record highs. Debt levels are extreme. What "direction" are you talking about?
Some people have no sense of perspective.
some perspective have no sense of people
Some perspective people have no sense.
No sense of perspective some people have.
Jedi Master
The USD is trading where it was in the fall of 2008 (around 80) while gold has risen from 700 to 1700.
*******
Hey bay..i can juice it up even more--
The dollar is trading at 2005 levels--gold was at 450 then-any asshole that says it hasn't been a profitable trade- has shit for brains-
JJ,
Dont tell that to the Doelarr bulls who seem to have no ability to discern the facts on currency debasement and purchasing power.
The wailing and knashing of teeth by these buffoonish clowns gets louder and louder as the gold price rises year after year.
I think gold profits are taxed as "capital gains" hence some people I know are cashing out of physical by year end before obama higher capital gains tax takes effect. Then when gold bottoms at $1400 in the first quarter they will buy back in with the full realization that capital gains taxes are going up under our globalist controlled hijacked government.
Tuco
Tuco,
We will not see Gold @ 1400.00 again for a long time if your right 1.2 trillion Chinese bennybux will be coming home.
Yeah. Like the tax man has any idea of the cost basis of my gold eagles. And I sure as hell am not going to tell them where they are, and how much they cost. That's the beauty.
Of course all of my stuff trades at a loss. I suck at this stuff.
Sorry, incorrect. They are income. Check out the IRS info. Your friends cashing out are mistaken, and will pay the piper this coming April. As for $1,400 I would also disagree, and would sell now if I agreed. I think until something unexpected happens, we will be stable for months. The new normal is priced in.
Whoever is feeding you this line of BS should be slapped. Buying gold with cash is an exchange of like items and is not taxable by the IRS code. There is no normal in these markets, they are algo driven and generated.
If only half of the people understood the laws as they were written spreading the truth would be easier.
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/26/1031
Paying TAXES on gold? (or any physical item for that matter). There's a shitload of villages missing their idiots.
Short-term capital gains...
38% if I am not mistaken...
Orly
28% on gains................12 mos or less.
NO, that is WRONG! Well, only half-right, anyway.
One is only liable to pay the 28% rate if one's income tax bracket reaches or exceeds that level --- for those of more modest income, one's precious metals profits are only subject to their regular income tax rate.
If you do it right, you don't even pay income taxes.
That goes without saying.
;-)
http://www.irs.gov/publications/p17/ch16.html
Look 60% down under "Collectibles gain or loss". Both "metal (such as gold, silver or platinum bullion)" and "coins" are taxed at the 28% collectible rate.
Or look under IRC 408(m)(3)(b).
1031 won't help you in tax court.
Please learn to read and stop with this "always 28%" bullshit already! GOD, I am tired of endlessly reading that misleading and incorrect crap!
One's precious metal profits are taxed at 28% ONLY if their total income puts them at or above that same income tax rate --- for those of more modest (normal) incomes, one's precious metal profits are only taxed at their prevailing income tax rate, as normal income.
From the IRS link above:
By the time I actually expect to SELL gold and silver there wont BE a US Dollar around to try and tax me on.
Helps me just fine every time I get audited... It's all about how you keep your paperwork and records. I swear some of you need better accountants.
I lost my train of thought
beware the Central bank attack on GOLD....3 times they have bitch slapped gold down hard in asia....they hate that people are buying metals....great ready for a down hard...weak hands out.....coming gold down 75 bucks before Christmas....
beware the Central bank attack on GOLD....3 times they have bitch slapped gold down hard in asia....they hate that people are buying metals....great ready for a down hard...weak hands out.....coming gold down 75 bucks before Christmas....
And watch how FAST the Asians buy it up, especially the Chinese, and the Indians.
All headed EAST,never to return.
fuck all I hope you're right
BTFD
bitchez...
I simply don't know where they're getting the silver to keep this up. I know the gold is flowing out of the vaults. Where the fuck are they getting it? Is it coming from industrial sources?
no phyzz... Just contracts settled in joobux...
If it's being settled in FRNs, why doesn't the comex go to cash settlement/blow up when Sprott and Central Fund, and phys buyers keep taking it off the market? Annual production is constrained, and there's only so many oz above ground. Again, where is the physical coming from?
Same reason as everything else...
Despite the rhetoric... Nobody is interested in BLOWING UP the system... You continue to scrape off what you can for as long as the MSM & propaganda artists can keep the 'Snookie' & 'Honey Boo-Boo' crowd believing that the Emperor actually DOES have clothes...
It'll continue this way until it doesn't (&/or until the last penny has been plucked from the last steamroller)... End of story...
Spend your joobux while you got 'em... It's just a freaking currency for Chrissakes... Tho some still think they mean something... Better for you that they do...
Again, where is the physical coming from?
It's PAPER dudes.................keep a hard hand on what you have,unless you have no choice.
Stop and think about where can you put fiat, and make sure it retains any buying power or protection( dont say TIPS Treasuries), because we know who controls the TOTAL fake stats(CPI).
Part of their GANG.
I know I am paying a min of 25% on average more for food across the spread than last yr,many items I have gone to store brands because I refuse to get screwed over name brand(when blindfolded for a taste test) damn hard to tell the difference.
Case in point, wife eats Quaker 1min Oatmeal,LARGE size was $3.50, 6mos ago, now it $4.80,beef and chicken,pork, are so high I stopped even buying it.
( bought 40+#'s ground chuck last year),damn glad.
3# Ground Chuck 80/20, was $12.00 a year ago, now it's $21.00.
Same large chain store.
Seafood???, FERgidaboutit.
Where are you at? I am outside a large metropolitan area (4mm+). I bought the large generic minute oats at Aldi for $1.99 two weeks ago. I paid .79/lb for chicken leg quarters, on sale, at my local chain. I consistently get a whole pork loin for $2.29/lb (10 lb minimum) that I cut into chops, roasts and cubes at either Aldi, Costco or local butcher. Use coupons, Watch for sales. Eat in season veggies, or better yet, grow your own.
In other words, BTFD. You do it for PM's, why would you not do it for everything?
Sounds to me like he's getting it blessed by a rabbi...
Buy a chest freezer and a quarter beef/half hog, etc.
I simply don't know where they're getting the silver to keep this up.
That's the point, they DON'T have it!!!!!!!!!!!
The supply is damned near extinct in real world supply.WHY do you think they are attacking it constantly?.
If someone came in and orderd 2 million ounces THEY COULD NOT deliver it!.And if the longs demanded physical delivery, they would have to pay them in fiat.
The question above by the Sgt is a good one, and Sprott is a good example.
When physical is continually taken into strong hands, you can't have a market consisting only of paper. It would blow up. They can only use manipulation tactics to amplify the effects of dumping their stockpile into the market, so as to use it as efficiently as possible. However, when they run out of physical to dump, paper manipulation will cease to work very rapidly, the system will simply explode.
We'll find out soon - Sprott has contracted for delivery of 7.127 million ounces.
The Link.
The "longs" can't force themselves to shat in their beds....or burn down the casino that provides the "fix" to their addictions...
depending on how you look at it.
When the Investment Bank vaults run dry....they will position themselves as the new "longs" and the "remoras" that have toughed it out rolling contracts may be able to ride their waves/wakes and cash in on their fiat dreams.
It doesn't guarantee any of them will be left holding any physical when the music stops and the search for chairs commences.
Not that it matters anyway. Fiat whores are "confirmed" in their respective religion....
Just like us PM bugs
It is called paper silver. Re - hypothecarted toilet paper bullshit one hundred times over actual metals backing the poo paper. Leverage plus robo trading equals disproportionate leveraged trading equals manipulation equals jail time some day for some folks. After the fall. Not before.
I know, but people are still taking the physical off the market. Regardless of what the paper markets do, at some point, the ponzi blows up when the manipulators deliver the last oz from the vault. Annual mine production is constrained, and it appears that more physical is being taken into strong hands than actual mine production. The US Gov used to keep silver stockpiles in West Point, and the Denver Mint, how much, nobody knows.
When physical demand is greater than annual mine production, at some point the ponzi ends. It just depends how much stockpiled silver was in the vault. US government holdings of silver are secret, but it appears they're probably shoveling it out the door. What they can shovel is finite, and once they run out, even with paper manipulation, the physical market will eventually freak the fuck out.
the us mint sold something like 12% more last year than the entire U.S. yearly production. canada was something like 14%. china and russia keep all of theirs in country. the remaining suppliers have got to be stretched pretty thin.
I bought gold today....silver yesterday....oh well....to me the fundimentals still look good for PM´s.....way good.....this is the casino players playing and cheating...in the long term we will win the game and the casino will close
Hedgie liquidation going on
Too soon? Shit 113
$1,771.99 $200,234.87 Subtotal: $200,234.87 S, H, & I: $0.00 Taxes: $0.00 Discount: $0.00 Total: $200,234.87You bought 113 ozs of gold?
That is how much fell out of me canoe.
Pics or it never happened.
Like how QE4 double bonus plus good is announced and Ag gets hammered.
Silver is easier to manipulate. Smaller market. This is just plain illegal crap!
Yesterday it was the other way arround: gold unch, silver up 1.5%.
It's a good thing the Fed announced they will be expanding their balance sheet by $1 trillion a year otherwise Gold and Silver would be down double today.
PMS down today
specially down from yesterday's QEorganizer's QE4 announcement. I'll PATIENTLY (year 2016??) wait for gold @ sub $350 and silver @ sub $3.75 they won't go straight down
gold might be "outperforming silver", meaning that silver will be down -90% from current levels and gold "only" down -85%
today Au = -1.% Ag = -3.5% or so
If something goes down a negative percentage, doesn't that mean it went up? ;-)
bearish for gold imo
The clowns are at it again. More money printing, more confsetti, more debt means higher dollar lower Gold and Silver? ahahahahahahah!!
I just calculated before coming across this post. For the day silver down 4.1%. Gold down 1.25%. A few days ago I looked at spot prices from many years back. Platinum prices were twice as high as those of gold. The perception of silver and platinum being industrial metals is killing them "for the moment".
Tuco
Unfortunatly I think this may all be priced in already. It will take another financial accident to force gold up again (and MAYBE silver). But don't forget the patteren: accident-drop in PMs-dramatic rise in PMs.
It will take another financial accident to force gold up again (and MAYBE silver).
Well we wont have long to wait, because Europe is about as close to the edge as it can get.'
And Obummers already said ANY gain from tax increases 75%+ will be spent on NEW spending, not deficit reduction.
Face it, the entire global cartel of fiat printers are sitting on a cliff they will never get up from, w/out a re-do.
Does anyone consider the obvious - that the Fed is taking those extra monthly QE payments to monkey hammer PMs so the elites can stack with impunity? That would be my first guess...
Gold, bitchez!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7i4pByuOUo
They've already got it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2247578/How-ones-gold-Queen-insp...
Where the silver bitchez at?
In your face, monkey boy. Live by the paper, burn with the paper. your time is gonna come.
You think I like silver paper? You are an idiot.
Stack it up or get the fuck out.
I am all about stacking, dipshit. Thought you were calling us out a la MDB, laughing about a temporary downward ripple in metals.
http://goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html dont see any problem here with gold/silver other than paper chasing fools getting knocked out buy the paper creating fools!
At this point ANY substantial drop is a Xmas present, so if you get the chance load up the wagons.
just in time for my bonus to hit. was hoping for some kind of a smack down before it hit. looks like my wish is coming true.
Congrats to ZH for finding a way to print "gold outperforms something" today. To what will it be compared next?
Your IQ?
:-) ok, I like your answer and I guess you think I am extremely intelligent so that gold can be compared to a huge number. Or you may think I am stupid in which case gold will outperform a very small number.
=)
When gold gets compared to tulip bulbs and Beanie Babies, that's when I'll just completely ignore it.
(As opposed to just kind of ignoring it and snickering to myself as I do now...)
"When gold gets compared to tulip bulbs and Beanie Babies."
You mean like 10 year treasuries that are 240 year highs!??
This is a dream come true. Keep smashing it please, I can't buy yet.
And making silver cheaper in relation to gold.
I think I just came in my pants. Good job Blythe.
By the way I came in my pants because of silver not you Blythe, you big footed whore.
Working according to plan. My Priceline short is coming along nicely as well as Apple. When they take the huge 100 point dump it will be time to cash in and flip it to Phyz silver. Like taking candy from a baby :-)
http://www.brotherjohnf.com/
Maybe I should take the chart to the Bank of Nova Scotia - our Cdn bullion bank - and ask the grumpy lady at the counter whether I should buy more gold or silver today. I take great pleasure exchanging pieces of paper with numbers and pretty pictures on them for oz of gold and silver. Just sayin!
All you folks looking for " a huge drop" in the price of gold, in particular, need to understand something:
1.) Just as the monetary authorities don't want physical to go up too much too quickly, neither do they want it to go down too much lest physical go into hiding.
With that in mind, if you are waiting for prices to go below the lows of earlier this year, don't hold your breath.
Crazy that a metal in backwardation can go down 4% in one day.
I see silver as the buy of the decade so I'm hoping it dips into the 20s.
Dear Keynesian Shylocks,
A sale tomorrow would work out nicely for my schedule.
Regards,
"Joe Bag-of-elements"
Silver down over 3%....
Lucky it's a natural move and not manipulation by the USA Gov.&friends.
Fucking terrorist.
I hate this technical analysis crap, some please tell me why a 50 dma is more important then a 51 day or 55 day, and same with 100 day and 98 day, its always crossing some moving average, and picking some arbitrary day because its a nice round number is just pure random and stupidity. and because you get 100,000's of morons using the same round number it somehow makes it significant? And now we have computers programed to arb these idiots. they analyze the data faster then these "technical" analisist can and beat them to the punch then get out before they can see a change. so what you should do is use a 51 day and 49 day, and a so on so you can see it before the guy looking at the 50 and beat him to the punch, and make sure you dont miss your classic "head and shoulders" pattern.
For someone who hates technical analysis, you've sure done plenty of it in that post. :D
"...why a 50 dma is more important then a 51 day..."
Because everyone uses that number and the 100 and the 200.
But unless you're using an MA in conjunction with another MA, either shorter or longer, then MAs by themselves are pretty useless. All it shows is a general trend in the chart and if you can't see that, you shouldn't be looking at charts anyway. They come in handy for MA crosses to signal when the market may change trend.
The algos that are running also seem to be designed to keep the MAs nice and uniform so that there is no massive break in continuinity...until there is.
Also, the classic head and shoulders pattern is very rare in charts and I will again take this opportunity to get on my soapbox and state that head and shoulders patterns are a form of "mesa;" a table. Flat, with a bump on one shoulder, a flatline, a head, a flatline and a bump for the other shoulder; keyword there being, "flatline." From one shoulder to the next, they are nearly identical in price level. I now stand down.
:D
Today's losses in the metals markets have been caused by the 47.572-day cycle exponentially-smoothed RSI crossover ratio stochastic variable Bollinger-band flow-channel indicator reaching a second-derivative Fibonacci inflection point.
Tuco
I am happy to get rid of my paper currency for silver and gold.....the paper will be worthless when the shit hits the fan.
SkyNet will find you. People voted for this in 2008 and 2012.
And in 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, 1980, 1976 .... you get the picture.
Sure, gold is a good preserver of wealth, but you'll need someone verify/assay it in order to sell or trade it.
Where did u get that crazy idea?, stick w/coins of the realms, and no worries mate.Eags/Mapes/Roos/Krugs.
Now Silver unless it's Mapes or Eagles,and Kookaburras,Libertads, etc, are another ball game.
Now bars,is a whole nuther ballgame.For both.
I think folks paying a lot more in prems for Eagles(Gld) are missing a double play, odds are better n even the dollar sites out before the Canadian,or Aud currencies do.
"Where did u get that crazy idea?, stick w/coins of the realms, and no worries mate.Eags/Mapes/Roos/Krugs."
You do know there is a Chinese company that makes Tungsten filled, gold plated 'replica' rounds, right?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-09-24/get-your-fake-tungsten-filled-gold-coins-here
A. Magnus
Yep, so they say, and my dealer is huge,and the MAN say's that there is so little of that out there it is not worth even thinking of.
You can tell by sound what is real and what is not.When I go in to sell it they look at it, and don't even think of weighing it.
Have you tried to order any of that site?, if not pls post a link I want to order some, just for testing(the site Chinese I saw that advertised them, when I asked about pricing, they backed off real quick, and tole me any coin with raised lettering/faces etc, they could not duplicate.(after their site said Krugs were the easiest to make).
Basically I called em on it, OK I wanna buy some........3 weeks to respond, and told me no can do.
I have heard/seen not one instance of coins of the realm,filled w/ tungsten.They Tungsten blanks will shatter if subjected to the tonnage required to properly mint them.
Bars, another game.
Sunshine is now using a hologram anti-counterfeit feature on their gold and silver bars.
It's pretty "trick" actually.
Anybody that understands gold and silver will not be bothered by the scare tactics that are floating around.
so yeah, agreed Dos Zap....the usual suspects are the "preferred" offerings
but when people force themselves to get educated about all that's offered in the realm and shuck their fear....
There's lots of options to be had
Buybacks for one ounce gold american eagles are much higher than for GMLs or GKRs. That must be taken into consideration. Spread (difference between customer buy and sell price) for GAEs is reasonable.
Oh, fake one ounce krugerrands pop up every now and then.
Tuco
Tuco, as there should be,since the prems are double.
Any opinion on the 1.20oz Mexican Pesos?
To me they're the "junk silver" of the gold world. Also beautiful to look at.
Any opinion on the 1.20oz Mexican Pesos?
To me they're the "junk silver" of the gold world. Also beautiful to look at
Yep sure are,just like old style silver libertads, the 50 Pesos are 90% pure.
Only issue w/them is MOST folks of the world want min of 22k, and 90% doesn't make it.
But for premiums, and best buys, the 50 Peso restrikes are GTG(IMHO)
One of the best deals on the NET is running at the top of the page(mine anyway), $39.90 over spot for Mapes.( I pay less than that when I buy, but not much less)
There is a shortage of them, as the Canadian Mint has had sales like we have on them, compared to the Eagles.
I refuse to pay a $70+ prem on an Eagle.(not when I can get 24k for half or less that.
GTG meaning good to go?
I believe the pesos were the best selling gold coins before Krugerrands hit the market. I have a bunch of them, just wondering if it's worth trading them for finer gold or not. (I'm thinking not worth it, but would like to hear some other opinions on it).
The action in gold and silver is troubling. Long-term I think there's huge upside, but that isn't going to happen until big money abandons bonds and the dollar to chase hard assets, thereby driving the physical price upward because supply will be running out. But that's an end game move.
In the meantime, it seems the buying capacity of the longs is running lower and lower. The 2011 high in silver was a short-covering rally because it was the first time we went that high in 30 years and it was driven by QE2 (and going back further QE1), but also the Middle East uprising and the Japan tsunami/nuclear meltdown. That kept forcing shorts to cover and momentum longs to jump on, making a crazy run that is probably not going to happen again (until the end game). When it was flirting with $50 I'm sure there was some kind of collusion to raise margins like they did to crush the market. After bottoming at $32, silver then retracted to $44 then got crushed again with the Twist announcement of Sept 11'. I bet a lot of those heavily long started losing money in this volatility. Silver then bounced off $26 and retraced to $37 then got crushed again down to $26. Each time the longs must get less confident and many take losses, I'm sure, some of that buying capacity never to return. Now we retraced back up to $35 in anticipation of QE3 but it was overbought and sold off deeper than it should have. That was a red flag. Then it retraced up to mid $34's and got crushed again. Every dip got bought except last week there was one day silver got crushed with no dip buying. That was another red flag. Yesterday was a big red flag. We are nowhere near overbought and Bernanke announced the most bullish-for-the-metals policy ever and we had a weak burst, a crush, another burst, and selling ever since.
So, the question is: where does the buying capacity and catalyst come from now? I'm not saying it's over for the metals by any stretch. But I don't see how we make any sizable move if no one is buying right now following that announcement. What's the catalyst that will drive the buying if QE4 didn't? I wouldn't be surprised to see the selling drive us down to $30 where we better find support, and if we do and the bottom is well-timed with some kind of resolution to the f-cliff (by pushing the pain out) as well as raising the debt ceiling, the dollar should finally start trending down, which will allow the metals to slowly trend up. But I don't think silver will have the legs to get past $37 by the time everything falls apart. Then it will get smoked with everything else. THEN, I hope, when all hits the fan, we will get the exponential rise in silver that we expect because the end game will be upon us and there will be a flight away from paper. But I believe there has to be a 2008-like trouncing first. We'll see how this plays out, but this isn't promising action in the metals right now.
Good analysis Dragoneyes. Thank you.
Tuco
"But I believe there has to be a 2008-like trouncing first. We'll see how this plays out, but this isn't promising action in the metals right now. "
Patience grasshopper - in the late 70s gold was hammered down by nearly 50% a year or two before it kicked into parabolic mode. Remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent...
"But I believe there has to be a 2008-like trouncing first. We'll see how this plays out, but this isn't promising action in the metals right now. "
Patience grasshopper - in the late 70s gold was hammered down by nearly 50% a year or two before it kicked into parabolic mode. Remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent...
"What's the catalyst that will drive the buying if QE4 didn't?"
Some, like myself, are expecting/hoping precious mets to go significatly lower again, at least one more time.
It looks like the metals market hasn't completely disconnected from equities yet.
I'm double shorting the S&P, and when equities move down, again, I'll be buying more metal on profits from the shorted equities market.
I hope to catch more silver around $28 or less, and gold around $1300's. However, whenever the next S&P correction seems to bottom out, I'll buy more metal and probably other commodities.
That's the plan anyhow.
And, I think I'm not alone: There's a pretty good amount of money in the shorted ETF's.
Supply/demand dynamics, investment demand, adversion to counter-party risk, and uncovering manipulation. I don't know if inflation will drive prices higher since the FED removes anything that shows inflation from the CPI. For inflation to drive prices the public will have to distrust the FED, and sadly most still trust their numbers.
All I know is I'd rather have silver than dollars, and nothing will change that moving forward. If they're giving me more silver for dollars I will take it. Bank error in my favor.
Silver's hecka lot trickier than gold, 'cause it's still mostly an industrial metal, and industrial output is taking a beating. Global depression and tanking BDI should mean reduced silver demand as a material, but teetering financials should mean increased respect for silver as a PM.
I'd suggest better to put as much as you can stand into gold and play with silver opportunistically. It's like a cork atop a wave--VERY unpredictable price action. Gold's more like a heavily ballasted ship.
..."But I don't see how we make any sizable move if no one is buying right now following that announcement."...
Umm, I think I know where you can find lots of people who are buying right now.
Without going too far even...
:)
The only ones selling are the US specilators and manipulators. The rest of the world is buying and those natural forces will in time overcome the macinations here in America!!
the difference between golds and silvers is the difference between an ugly bitch, and sweet, fine, poontang.
I disagree sir!!
Jenny McCarthy v Selma Hayek
I love Jenny in a filthy bent over the couch wheeling and dealing sort of way....
But it's Selma I wish to make my wife.
I couldn't say really; I always specialized in beautiful poontang; I don;t have your experience to speak from about ugly bitches.
lucky you.
In spite of my being fundamentally bullish very long term (secular) for gold, I cannot ignore the technicals.
Short and medium term (until ca. 6 months), a rising gold/silver ratio tends to denote bearishness for both metals, even though gold declines less and hence outperforms.
Furthermore, the BLV/GLD (long-term bond/gold term bond/gold) ratio refuses stubbornly to turn bearish (stronger gold). A bullish ratio is acting as a brake for gold. Until the ratio turns bearish (stronger gold) gold will be subdued. More about this vital ratio here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/10/dow-theory-spells-trouble-for...
More worryingly, gold and silver are caught between the Oct 4 highs and the Nov 2 lows. A breakout above the Oct 4 highs would re-confirms the primary bull market. However, the violation of the Nov 2 lows would trigger a primary bear market signal. Right now, gold and silver are dangerously approaching the Nov 2 lows. More about the Nov 2 lows and its relevance here:
http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/11/dow-theory-update-for-nov-12-...
Bear market? Come on now.
Gold will have a $50 move in early January and obliterate all this "wall of worry" nonsense.
You cannot ignore the technicals? That sounds like some kind of psch. disorder; you ought to have that looked into. Metals prices follow technical indicators like gang plows follow prayers; not too good.
Silver in the Zurich Vault; $32.72/ right now. bullionvault.com. it's not for everybody; but it's not a scam, either. it's all real, itis all there, and it's all yours.
if you're not holding it in your possession, you don't own it.
how difficult is this concept?
Metals are crashing because nation after nation keeps being downgraded. Robert Prechter is probably right. No amount of printing can save anything and prices will go towards 0, not infinity.
http://www.abload.de/img/gld_si_ratio1loq13.gif
They keep supressing the price of Silver and the trolls keep saying it will go down but I bought at 18 and its almost doubled even while they suppress the fuck out of it. Fuck you, all you sad pathetic trolls, get a real job. Hope you trolls are smart enough to buy Silver even though you are being paid to trash it.