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Grade The Recessiovery

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Here, for your comparative studies analytical viewing pleasure, is the current recession recovery in context. Across activity indicators, consumer behavior, labor market developments, and housing & construction, there is a little here for everyone. From vehicle sales to disposable income and from durable goods to industrial production, it seems grading this economy's performance is a matter of 'see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil'.

 

Extra Credit:

  • Can you spot the government-sponsored segment of the economy?
  • Compare and Contrast Unemployment Rate and Initial Claims with average hours worked and ISM employment.
  • Grade the housing recovery.

Each chart compares the current business cycle with four prior ones: the mild recession/recovery episodes of 1991 and 2001 and the deep V-shaped cycles of 1973 and 1981.

As always, we suspect, we see what we want to see - but here is the chart extravaganza comparing the current to the previous...

 

 

 

 

 

Charts: Barclays

 


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Thu, 12/13/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment ar01
ar01's picture

Are those vehical sales actual sales or sales to dealerships? 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Dude....one doesn't ask those3 questions because they don't matter...they are called SALES....got it Comrade?

Now get back to the plow...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Something's not quite right with this line.

From vehicle sales to disposable income and from durable goods...

I think you meant to say "ungoods."

In other news, here's the only chart that Benron understands.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/128271.html

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:50 | Link to Comment Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

Figure 10: "Vehicle Sales/Current"

Translation: channel stuffing.

Okay, what is the door prize ?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Same charts as when the Bolsheiviks took power in 1940s Russia. Old news....next !

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Oh so very insightful...
Did you just graduate from a Community College? How is that student loan treating you?
Can we talk about the price discovery process or do we have to slog thru Russian history?
What page are you on in War and Peace?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:17 | Link to Comment Freedomtosayno
Freedomtosayno's picture

You're welcome.  Bolsheviks; Lennin, Trotsky, et al, fronts for the Banksters. Put on the train(s) to the east by the Kasier's agents. Peace.

No debt slave here, thank you very much.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:24 | Link to Comment Freedomtosayno
Freedomtosayno's picture

Hello? No price discovery here in an oligarchal (fascist/socialist) collectivist paradigm that we are now in. Read Ludwig Von Mises' Socialism and Human Action for starters. That is the point.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:30 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Lenin, Trotsky, Marx... Jews... Another historical stastistical abberation... Poor dumb hardworking fucks who could never catch an honest break in the world...

~~~

Cue the 'junks' & 'RE-DIRECT' soapsuds towards 'Ashkenazi-ism' & 'Zionism' in order to 'accurately & properly'' sterelize everything for the records & for future viewing...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:01 | Link to Comment derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

i think ZH should dedicate all its content tomorrow in the honor of the birth of the honored one--chairman ben bernanke

oops, my bad, he was hatched/created 59 years ago today

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:18 | Link to Comment The Proletariat
The Proletariat's picture

spawned......

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:21 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

you mean he was monetized into existence

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:00 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

".....it seems grading this economy's performance is a matter of 'see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil'."

I see dead people a dying economy.

<"Bubbles" Ben to the ER stat.>

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:08 | Link to Comment OldE_Ant
OldE_Ant's picture

I have to grade the economy B, and E for BEN.

It's the BEN economy stupid.

Buy, Everything, Now!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Breaking Economies Nightly

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:09 | Link to Comment Donlast
Donlast's picture

It is what happens in 2013 that will set the seal on these charts. It will be a miracle if it makes the current cycle look good. 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:10 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

forever green across the board ...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I give it a "C" as in "C for Corporate Communism"

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:14 | Link to Comment sharky2003
sharky2003's picture

How about F- ??

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

For those of you who are new this site it means: Discover your maker, buy food, buy guns, buy ammo, keep debt low and or extinct in an effort to achieve self reliance and flexibility, boost reserves (gold to cash ratio) and explore your exit from city life to country life and it's timeline to horizon. Self reliance means you fill in the gaps to suit you and your families lifestyle and unique needs. Lastly, step on the gas.

Odly, what I mentioned above has been the rule to a happy life from the begining. No ONE can argue it's simplicity or truth to a free man. All those who do are liars, cheats, thieves, and wrong doers no matter what the economic conditions are.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 14:25 | Link to Comment donsluck
donsluck's picture

So indelicate. Both my makers have died, not that YOU'D care!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Note how the consumer metric are adjusted for inflation and tell a much different story than what we hear on the MSM everyday.  The dollar doesn't stretch as far as it used to and people ain't buying what they used to.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:22 | Link to Comment HoaX
HoaX's picture

But there´s positive news! Airasia has just placed an order for another 100 A320 commercial airliners worth $9.3bn...With Airbus.

Trololol.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:35 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Real GDP - lulz

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:37 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Do those numbers count the seasonal adjustments that were in effect miraculous compared to the actual underlying data? Like the first ever statistical adds for several months in 2012 to help The Great O get re-elected. Do the charts count channel stuffing?

When you remove the government stimulus, the CFOs doing their best Iron Chef impersonations, the union helping GM channel stuffing, and the BLS data fudging, the graphs hit the bottom and never went back up.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 14:14 | Link to Comment StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

This is not a recession! It's a depression!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:22 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Since the premise is that the current recession is distinct, rather than a continuation of the 2001 one, I guess that means we need to blow another bubble.  That is the solution, right?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:23 | Link to Comment Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Too much variability in the integrity of these data to draw a conclusion from the charts. But meta-analysis is possible, since this truth by itself is enough information to draw the necessary inference: we are being played by the global power elite on an epic scale, and therefore fucked.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:53 | Link to Comment dscott8186
dscott8186's picture

How about a chart on stuff real people actually buy like TVs, vehicles, and houses that indicates NOT the $ amount but the actual units/numbers.  Many contend that dollar denominated sales are not adequately or realistically adjusted for inflation.  It is not in the interest of the government to overstate inflation thus they do everything to minimize it lest the public realize they are being stealth taxed.  

Given that the population of the country is still trending up, now at around 315 million, any flat or decline in the unit trend is an actual sign of recession.  

In fact if you present the data, one set in units/numbers and the other set in dollars a third set could be derived showing actual inflation on per unit basis. Just saying...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Justlookatit
Justlookatit's picture

I'm assuming you've already faxed these up to the white house 

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 03:04 | Link to Comment nastaking
nastaking's picture

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Fri, 12/14/2012 - 03:05 | Link to Comment nastaking
nastaking's picture

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