Initial Claims Plunge: QE4EVA Ending Sooner Than Expected?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The economic data dump trifecta has been released, with updates on claims, retail sales and PPI. The end result was a nearly even beat/miss split.

  • Initial Claims dropped 29K from the upward revised 372K, down to 343K, beating the consensus of 369K. Needless to say, this comes at a bad time for the market when in the aftermath of yesterday's Bernanke conference, this better than expected number brings us one day closer to the end of QE4EVA. Unclear how much of this is merely the overshoot to the seasonal adjustments resulting from the fudging that happened during Sandy. Remember: all claim numbers are still largely distorted due to the impact of the Hurricane, which means that yes, the surge is indeed, Sandy's fault.
    • Of note in the claims number was the surprising surge in those claiming Emergency Unemployment Comp, which jumped by a whopping 186K, and the stunning jump in State employees claiming benefits, which jumped by a ridiculous 480K! All Sandy's fault too?
  • Retail Sales were a miss at the headline level, printing at +0.3%, and missing expectations of +0.5%. This was driven once again by a 1.4% rise in auto dealers (one assumes this excludes channel stuffing). The number was modestly better at the internal level with the Retail Sales less autos printing as expected 0.0%, and unchanged from last month. Finally, ex-autos and gas, sales rose 0.7%, beating expectations of 0.4%, driven entirely by a 3.0% surge in sales at non-store retailers in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy.
  • Finally, Producer Prices in November dropped 0.8%, below expectations of a -0.5% decline, driven by a slide in food and gas prices. Ex-food and gas, PPI rose 0.1%, just as expected.  November PPI ex-food and energy rose 2.2%, also in line with expectations.

In short: data which on the surface may indicate the Fed's easing is ending far sooner than even we expected yesterday.

Initial Claims...

 

Emergency Unemployment Claims jumped the most since July 2010...

 

Advance retail Sales...

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Thu, 12/13/2012 - 11:20 | 3059315 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

Awesome! 

I think that about sums up the ever elusive "recovery" myth we have heard so much about....

All we seem to get are footprints and grainy photos of this mythical creature....but no solid proof...

 

MAKE ME A BELIEVER BENNNY . . .

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 10:36 | 3059083 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The sheeple are ebullient.

Commodity prices are collapsing and retail spending is going through the roof.

Any wonder why gold and oil are getting clobbered in virtually every currency?

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?GLD:FXE,GLD:FXC,GLD:...|D

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$WTIC:FXE,$WTIC:FXY,$WTIC:FXC,$WTIC:FXS,$WTIC:FXA,$WTIC:FXB,$WTIC:FXF|D

And XRT and XLY are pinned at world record highs in every currency?

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?xrt:FXE,xrt:FXY,xrt:...|D

The U.S. Consumer is stronger than ever.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 10:52 | 3059172 moron counter
moron counter's picture

Are robots capable of sarcasm????

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 01:27 | 3094259 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Do AAPL's dream of Electric Sheeple?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 10:53 | 3059179 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

"The U.S. Consumer is stronger than ever."

All the retail/commercial 'For Sale'/'Available' signs suggest you are spot on.  

 

/s

 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 11:45 | 3059452 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

What the hell are you talking about?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 15:28 | 3060432 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Robo now back in hiding.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 11:08 | 3059256 Hohum
Hohum's picture

YOY seasonally adjusted down 28K; YOY not seasonally adjusted only down 7K.  Go figure.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 13:49 | 3060035 pinqy
pinqy's picture

What report are you reading? The Not Seasonally Adjusted number dropped 72,117

http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/eta20122428.htm

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