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Late-Day 'Leak' Not Enough To Save The World

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A well-timed leak of an Obama-Boehner meeting this evening provided enough exuberance to allow algos to lift the markets (futures and ETFs first) from 'about to break the lows' to VWAP (to the tick!). S&P 500 futures picked off VWAP perfectly and slid back. The Dow and the S&P spent the afternoon stuck at unchanged on the week before the rally-monkey saved the day (as did Financials). Treasury yields continue to bleed higher (now up around 10bps on the week). Silver dislocated (worse) from its commodity peers who have recoupled +/-0.3% on the week (even as the USD is -0.6% on the week). Gold and silver (as we noted earlier) really fell out of love from the start of the day-session but silver was starting to recover into the close. AAPL was very close to its lowest close in 10 months (but again was rescued by some rampant white house leak about a totally fruitless rumor) though ended at a critical VWAP support level. By way of record-breakers - today marked the first time that we have seen stocks negative from the day before a QE announcement to the day after (no matter what Bob Pisani tells you). Equities tumbled into the close (after ringing the bell at VWAP) ending near the lows after-hours leaving financials and energy practically unchanged on the week. VIX jumped 0.5 vols to 16.4% and HYG had a very weak day on significant volume. But apart from that...

 

This is the first time (by a long way) that the period from the day before a QE announcement to the day after has seen a negative performance - has the Fed lost its magic...usually good for 2-4% rise in stocks alone!!!

 

and the NASDAQ has averaged 2.1% gains, but this time -1.1% oops...

 

The late-day leak-driven ramp was just too obvious as this tweet showed only to well -

 

 

S&P 500 futures faded on Pelosi, Boehner, and Reid...stuck at Unchange for the week... were rescued by a leak of a meeting... rallied to VWAP (perfectly) on good volume (pros dumping into retail)... then faded back into the close to end near the lows of the day..

 

A close up on the leak and ramp...

 

The Dow and the S&P managed to pick off of red for the week just...

 

Leaving Financials and Energy around unch and quite a dispersion among the rest...

 

Across asset classes - credit was the laggard (in terms of risk-on) though the late-day 'surge' in volatility and stocks on the meeting-leak was enouigh to recouple them with rates for a split-second (and VWAP) before they dumped back into the close...

 

AAPL pulled back on the leaked news into the end of the day to avoid a 10-month low close but remains in a critical VWAP support region from the last big volume dump day... precarious at best...

 

Commodities had a bad day - though gold did hold up through the US day session...

 

Today's 30Y tailed by almost 3bps (ugly) and leaves Treasury yields higher by around 9-11bps across the curve on the week...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:24 | 3060893 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Bonds?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:28 | 3060904 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

james bond!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:34 | 3060919 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

When I look at the volume on the AAPL chart, I'm reminded of the El Diablo hand-sign.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:40 | 3060933 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

we may need the bazooka, that way we can see more green shootz

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:40 | 3060934 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

we may need the bazooka, that way we can see more green shootz

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:31 | 3060911 CPL
CPL's picture

So they are printing the money to cover these bonds to buy from themselves, is there a 85 billion in 85 billion out that's missing here?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:44 | 3060944 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

There's only one thing that can cure an OBoener leak.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:25 | 3060897 redpill
redpill's picture

I will be so very shocked when OBoehma announce a grand can-kicking compromise at the 11th hour to 'save' us all from the fiscal cliff.  I'm quite done with this charade.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:30 | 3060909 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

it will be historic, they will cut 40 - 50 billion at least!

btw redpill,  more and more i find myself wishing i had taken the bluepill.  Ignorance was bliss

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:35 | 3060924 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You left out the best part, "... of future spending increases."

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:41 | 3060939 CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

Then all the chronic complaints of "slashed" budgets will become "fact" for the MSM.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:50 | 3060959 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

....over the next decade.....

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:28 | 3061039 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

...based on future GDP targets that will never be met.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:45 | 3060946 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

My kids have agreed to cut down eating by 50 0reos...............................over 10 years.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:44 | 3060947 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

I believe he wants to be headed to Hawaii on the 17th...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:53 | 3060963 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

You are so right. As long as the USD holds up and Bernanke can still flog our bonds the government will just keep solving problems by increasing our debt. They'll only stop when it blows up.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:28 | 3060903 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

boner hadn't had his fill of puts

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:30 | 3060908 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

or, is it put`ting for dough?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:34 | 3060915 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

The Fed had a big day yesterday. They were just sleeping it off today. 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:34 | 3060916 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Thanks!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:37 | 3060920 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Politicians fighting to cut $1 trillion over a decade while Bernanke prints over $1 trillion every year.

Only the delusional believe this stupid standoff over the fiscal cliff.  

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:36 | 3060925 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

XLF down a paltry 9 cents

XLY down a measly 35 cents

XRT was actually up 1 cent

Gold and silver were creamed.

Today's Score:?

PigMen: 3

Stackers and Preppers:  0

 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:50 | 3060956 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Adbe up 4.3% AH. Thank William Banzai, The Photoshop master for that

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:55 | 3060967 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Again, the dollar cost average of under $300 and $12 on my gold and silver doesn't give a shit, still weighs the same and still retains it's purchasing power.  Send the pigmen over for lead anytime.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:01 | 3060979 akak
akak's picture

Fuck off RobotShitforBrains.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 19:27 | 3061159 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I thought it was Jackers and Fluffers three stackers and preppers zero. Does the performance include the fee difference between the two?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:37 | 3060927 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

It's so obvious why gold and silver were sold at low prices when the brick was printed down in value.....

no it isn't.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:38 | 3060929 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

they meant leak like pissing on us

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:40 | 3060932 edifice
edifice's picture

Obama-Boner meeting. Sounds erotic...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:46 | 3060951 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

They feel the need to say FU to each other in person and then compare who has the deeper tan.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:18 | 3061011 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Actually they'll be comparing notes from their handlers to see which direction they're allowed to proceed (in the hope that one exists which they can both get away with).

Remember, it's all about credible puppetry! Can't have too many quivering lip Bernanke types running around. Makes 'em all look bad.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:49 | 3060950 TonyCoitus
TonyCoitus's picture

It would be nice if someone could exlpain how an algo "reads" headlines and triggers buy and sell trades automatically.  Sounds like a movie.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:52 | 3060964 bilejones
bilejones's picture

And the Algo's are now crawling all over Amazon

http://www.michaeleisen.org/blog/?p=358

 

$2.8 million book.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:00 | 3060977 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 cnbs scores another brownie point for it's overlords/ we all know the leak came straight from from Maria Barferomos laptop/

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:11 | 3060998 Piranhanoia
Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:15 | 3061006 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

This shows that the algos are becoming self-aware.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:18 | 3061013 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Treasuries are telling the real story.  Yikes.

END THE FED!  SHORT A TREASURY BOND!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:45 | 3061063 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Bob Pasani is some market cheerleader... Mkt will follow the leaders... AAPL see you at $400

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 19:31 | 3061172 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The rumor I heard was that the deal was struck months ago and and all we've been getting since the election is political posturing. Just a rumor of course...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 20:49 | 3061380 justanothersucker
justanothersucker's picture

P.T. Barnham would be proud.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 21:56 | 3061560 chump666
chump666's picture

HFTs are now becoming predictable.  Bouncing back to VWAP and maintain the MA trades.  Like clockwork.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 00:49 | 3061931 pfairley
pfairley's picture

Close up views of these hair follicles, will not reveal the tumor in the brain.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 04:09 | 3062035 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Not only has Bernanke been nutered by the illuminati but he's got no bazooka.

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