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Is The U.S. The "Cleanest Dirty Shirt" Or Just Kidding Itself?
The following chart is perhaps the best glimpse of the excessively optimistic 'hope' relative to the rest of the world that US equity markets (and their extrapolators analysts) currently possess. Since the start of 2012, analysts, guided by both macro uncertainty and company expectations, have crushed 2013 EPS expectations across all global markets - well nearly all...
So far US EPS has held up relative to the Resof the World...
How do you think investors in Japan felt when all of a sudden 'expectations' were slashed - as opposed to a gradual slide that everyone has been pricing in? coming to a US equity market near you soon...
It would seem that the rest of the world is expecting 2013 to be a little more difficult than they did at the beginning of 2012... the US analysts, however, not so much...
Charts: Morgan Stanley
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All true. The US is in very shitty shape. However, one should (as a rule) never bet against the side with the biggest army in history, whose bases are clustered around the world's energy resources.
The 'cleanest dirty shirt' syndrome creates immense systemic risk. The US can borrow at ultra-low rates today...but that's causing behavior that only adds to future risk.
Hyperinflation and the fiscal case for gold:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/293312-hyperinflation-and-the-fiscal-cas...
The terms structures of rates world wide have already fallen most of what they're going to do, even if the whole world goes into the Japanese model.
Earnings expectations world wide would seem to be somewhat elevated given this author's world view of progress toward the Japanese model/Liquidity Trap.
Ergo, in light of the preceding conditions and with no room for anything other than imaginary P/E expansion, why would anybody own any stocks?
St. Ann the Indomitable:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WraPInMTGwU
When the U S goes bust..everyone goes bust.. Revelation 18:11
King James Bible (Cambridge Ed.)
And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:
and the sky rolled back like a scroll and i saw the lord blankfein up high and mighty. he gathered the people of the world in one place and began separating the sheep from the goats
And the goats receivedeth a reaming of the highest order; and lo, they were the lucky ones.
For the sheep were alowed to live so that they may continue to serve lord blankfein.
Until the merchant bearing the water of 2 and 20 was found lying with thieves and animals of open sores and shedding coats, thence upon the Lord striketh him down for vengeance upon the deeds of evil men remanding his very soul to everlasting purgatory for heinous crimes against the weak and pure of heart for he hath exhibited no contrition and claimed Gods work to be his own
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/12/1217_unbelievable_quotes_acts_ideas/image/001_goldman_sachs.jpg
never bet against the side with the biggest army in history
You mean like Rome?
or the Persians
or the Arabs, the Mongols, the Spaniards, the French and the British
UN
And the USSR
Or Saddam Hussein, leader of the world's 4th largest army "the mother of all battles"
"All true. The US is in very shitty shape. However, one should (as a rule) never bet against the side with the biggest army in history, whose bases are clustered around the world's energy resources."
It's not your army they are attacking. Let's see how much gold your soldiers can dig with their bayonnets.
It's just kidding itself... (you asked)...
thanks anyway morgan stanley, but we don't mark to market or account correctly anymore, so EPS is the biggest lie
the usa stock market is a maggoty cesspool with putrid dirty diapers floating in diseased piss buckets amongst giant chunks of shit
damn that reminds me.. lunch time
But it is better than Washington.
full disclosure: not long the market. lulz
buzzsaw99, +1, but if you trully wanted to profit from your insight into the usa stock market you would own a portfolio loaded with NfLX, GRPN, ZNGA, FSLR and AMZN.
but which ones to short and which to go long? and then you have to figure that out on the day, and sometimes by the millisecond. Too much work.
NFLX can make you rich or broke depending on the day. Has FSLR come back from the dead? I heard some people made 500% buying Kodak while they were in bankruptcy, of course some held on for half a day too long and lost it all.
Come on ZNGA is a screaming buy 10k%+ potential. Vegas may allow you to play ZNGA poker for real money while you are in Vegas. Because everyone will use an iPad to play virtual poker while sitting in a casino at a real poker table. Perhaps you can bet digital chips at a real table with real cards or bet real chips at a fake table with digital cards. The only question is if the dealer will be a real chicken or a fake one. MAN WHAT A BUSINESS MODEL!!!
AMZN definitely. The stock that never goes down. lulz
it reminds me of that john lennon song:
Imagine there's no earnings
It isn't hard to do
No reason to sell or buy for
And no dividend too
Imagine all the shareholders
Living life in peace...
You forgot to mention the use condoms seeping semen and covered in shit - and the sweaty blood and fluid stained tampons and rags....
Why we are not shooting and stringing these people who are fucking with our money is utterly beyond me.
After reading 2 separate articles today forecasting anywhere from say, 15% to 100% increases in health care premiums this coming year under the guise of new ACA (ObamaNotCare) regulations, I wondered about that myself.
I personally abhor violence and would never be a perpetrator thereof, but I'm beginning to wonder just when the first mobs will fill the streets, hoisting petards and heads on spears accompanied by flaming tar torches a la an old 30's film scene, the peasantry attacking Frankenstein's castle....
Seriously, this milking of Joe Public is starting to remind me of the Goose Which Laid the Golden Egg story...
In reality, J6P (including me) is surrounded by wolves. All of which want a bigger piece of him. Big energy, pharma, insurance (house, medical, car, etc.), fees, tags, licenses, ultilities, local taxes, state taxes, federal taxes, etc. Not to mention food costs.
The restraint in 2012 was amazing. The wolves did not pounce like I expected.
They are looking pretty hungry though. Drooling... and I can hear them breathing heavier.
When will it happen? That's easy. When the snap cards no longer work and 50 million inner city gangstas with guns try to find something to eat.
I think we're a long way from that day. Look how long Greece is taking to play out. Then there's the rest of Europe periphery. Then UK/Jap. Then the US.
In my case, I still have a job and my daughter still needs me. Otherwise, I think a bullet in Lloyds head, a quick surrender, millions in book and movie rights, and the taxpayers supporting me for the rest of my life while I am heralded as a national hero by the masses sounds pretty good. What's your excuse?
I guess we're waiting for those with nothing left to lose - to finally lose it.
Count me in though for the second wave.
Met a brit banker in Hong Kong (Goldman) recently - he and his wife left London because they are treated like pariahs there and 'couldn't stand it any longer'
Boo Fucking Hoo. I felt like saying 'you deserve the guillotine'
Don't forget all the dirty laundry US banks are hiding in the square mile of London. When TSHTF some of that laundry may be returned to sender unwashed.
Hah ha ha ha
Like the Queen and the rest of the Reptilian Anannukis a comin' on Nibru to save mankind and Make All Right at the end of days Revelation and Resurrection County Fair featuring the Fabulous Hamson to be held December 21 in Wonderful Prunedale, California.
(Rolling eyes)
It just goes to show that accounting fraud is alive and well in the US. If things get much worse for companies they'll have to come clean to get the next round of bailouts, and it won't be pretty. No risk of jail apparently though, and the FedGov is throwing the future away to keep the house of cards from falling, so it's steady as she goes for the moment.
Steady as she goes....
I think that was Captain Smith's penultimate order..
The final one was 'abandon ship'of course.
Leonardo di Caprio was not there.
We're just better than the ROW at passing off our problems to everyone else like, the ROW!
Did I forget to mention...
It's the hard knock life for us....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4sQI8Evfhc
A discussion on US energy sources goes down in the local mall.
"We get on like physically and chemically but we are not connecting astralogically and spiritually.. yeah OMG, like I can totally relate"
"Wait, is there like some kind of world financial situation going on?"
"Yeah like my Mom is like spewing like about getting me that iphone like Yuh"
We are fucked!
Oh come on, you lifted that whole cloth from CNBS :)
US is the very core of the financial delusion and always was going to be the last to reckon with reality. When the curtain is finally pulled back the US dollar will crash and the world will somehow have to attempt to rebuild a global supply chain under new terms of trade.
Hard to say who will fare better or worse relatively at that point (North American natural resource position is pretty good, but our eviscerated manufacturing base is a problem), but it seems easier to guess that we'll all be worse off absolutely.
Tyrone aint's not never seen no screwdriver, but usin dat razor to cut five kilos of coke iza skill dat make Tyrone bank y'all, word.
Kidding itself obviously. I mean this is the Hedge. Bring your doom and gloom forecasts and your gold bitchez!
From the above charts, pick the one that is the reserve currency without looking at the names. That is one of the primary differences. Our ability to export our problems (for now).
A better analogy would be that we're the best looking horse in the glue factory.
The Leper with the most fingers.
The US excels at Fraud. The others not so much.
US has the highest debt and unfunded liabilties as a percentage of GDP of any country in the world (890%). So why is it the cleanest dirty shirt?
Obama will send a drone after you if you think other shirts are cleaner?
I'm as pessimisstic as anyone when it comes to bad fiscal and monetary policy and broken political systems globally. Government policies have been the problem here and abroad and the bad policies continue and seem to get worse by the day as TPTB double down. Excessive leverage in the financial system, unsound money, expanding sovereign debt, expanding government, you name it, all need to get purged at some point. Hopefully, things get bad enough soon that they do and we get back on the right track.
I am still optimistic I will live long enough to see the day when once the policies reveal themselves to be an utter failure, maybe we'll get back to the limited government that allows for people to get back to being curious, solving problems, innovating, inventiing and making life better for others. Humans are ingenious and can do amazing things when they are free to. The US founders figured out the secret sauce but the bureaucrats running the show today seem to have lost the recipe. For now.
Good job regurgitating your training, little sheep. Let me guess, God will make it all work out in the end. Or mommy.
You missed the point entirely. We are on a path where it looks to gets much worse and probably fall apart before it can get better. Free markets outperform socialism and central planning, that was the point.
If ZH gets shut down and free speech gets banned, then you may have a point, and we're fucked. But as long as guys like you can keep blabbing freely and making even stupid points, there is hope.
The point (that you are missing) is this:
There are 7 billion people on the planet - and that is increasing exponetially.
We live on a planet of limited resources - we have reached the End of CHEAP oil (if you doubt it then why are we now extracting oil from tar sands from from fracking when not long ago both were economically unfeasible due to high costs)
Oil is only the beginng - there will be no fish left in the oceans within a generation - as for other resources, the low hanging fruit is disappearing which means the cost to extract increases which puts a massive drag on global growth... which ultimately means endless recession giving way to endless Depression ... which will result in massive riots which will result in martial law then totalitarian regimes the world over
Refer to the law of economics - supply and demand - chasing scarce resources.... what do these lead to? Of course war.
Now make the resources even MORE scarce - what does that lead to? War. And to the 0.1% hoarding what is left and saying 'fuck you bitch - I have a private army - I am taking what is left'
Fuck your free markets - they will not save you. Hoping and praying will not save you (in case you didn't realize it - there is no god)
If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever. George Orwel
There are 7 billion people on the planet - and that is increasing exponetially.
No, it's not.
You'll need to live till 1000
Uranium Laced Fukushima Sushi and Cesium Chowder should be good for -1bn people. there will be lots of inedible fish.