Is The U.S. The "Cleanest Dirty Shirt" Or Just Kidding Itself?

Tyler Durden's picture

The following chart is perhaps the best glimpse of the excessively optimistic 'hope' relative to the rest of the world that US equity markets (and their extrapolators analysts) currently possess. Since the start of 2012, analysts, guided by both macro uncertainty and company expectations, have crushed 2013 EPS expectations across all global markets - well nearly all...

So far US EPS has held up relative to the Resof the World...


How do you think investors in Japan felt when all of a sudden 'expectations' were slashed - as opposed to a gradual slide that everyone has been pricing in? coming to a US equity market near you soon...


It would seem that the rest of the world is expecting 2013 to be a little more difficult than they did at the beginning of 2012... the US analysts, however, not so much...


Charts: Morgan Stanley

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Popo's picture

All true.  The US is in very shitty shape.  However, one should (as a rule) never bet against the side with the biggest army in history, whose bases are clustered around the world's energy resources.

markmotive's picture

The 'cleanest dirty shirt' syndrome creates immense systemic risk. The US can borrow at ultra-low rates today...but that's causing behavior that only adds to future risk.

Hyperinflation and the fiscal case for gold:

knukles's picture

The terms structures of rates world wide have already fallen most of what they're going to do, even if the whole world goes into the Japanese model. 
Earnings expectations world wide would seem to be somewhat elevated given this author's world view of progress toward the Japanese model/Liquidity Trap.
Ergo, in light of the preceding conditions and with no room for anything other than imaginary P/E expansion, why would anybody own any stocks?

trollin4sukrz's picture

When the U S goes bust..everyone goes bust.. Revelation 18:11



King James Bible (Cambridge Ed.)
And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:


buzzsaw99's picture

and the sky rolled back like a scroll and i saw the lord blankfein up high and mighty. he gathered the people of the world in one place and began separating the sheep from the goats

CrimsonAvenger's picture

And the goats receivedeth a reaming of the highest order; and lo, they were the lucky ones.

ptoemmes's picture

For the sheep were alowed to live so that they may continue to serve lord blankfein.

knukles's picture

Until the merchant bearing the water of 2 and 20 was found lying with thieves and animals of open sores and shedding coats, thence upon the Lord striketh him down for vengeance upon the deeds of evil men remanding his very soul to everlasting purgatory for heinous crimes against the weak and pure of heart for he hath exhibited no contrition and claimed Gods work to be his own

TWSceptic's picture

never bet against the side with the biggest army in history


You mean like Rome?

Ghordius's picture

or the Arabs, the Mongols, the Spaniards, the French and the British

Diogenes's picture

Or Saddam Hussein, leader of the world's 4th largest army "the mother of all battles"

Diogenes's picture

"All true.  The US is in very shitty shape.  However, one should (as a rule) never bet against the side with the biggest army in history, whose bases are clustered around the world's energy resources."

It's not your army they are attacking. Let's see how much gold your soldiers can dig with their bayonnets.

francis_sawyer's picture

It's just kidding itself... (you asked)...

max2205's picture

thanks anyway morgan stanley, but we don't mark to market or account correctly anymore, so EPS is the biggest lie

buzzsaw99's picture

the usa stock market is a maggoty cesspool with putrid dirty diapers floating in diseased piss buckets amongst giant chunks of shit

trollin4sukrz's picture

damn that reminds me.. lunch time

ShrNfr's picture

But it is better than Washington.

buzzsaw99's picture

full disclosure: not long the market. lulz

slaughterer's picture

buzzsaw99, +1, but if you trully wanted to profit from your insight into the usa stock market you would own a portfolio loaded with NfLX, GRPN, ZNGA, FSLR and AMZN.

adr's picture

but which ones to short and which to go long? and then you have to figure that out on the day, and sometimes by the millisecond. Too much work.

NFLX can make you rich or broke depending on the day. Has FSLR come back from the dead? I heard some people made 500% buying Kodak while they were in bankruptcy, of course some held on for half a day too long and lost it all.

Come on ZNGA is a screaming buy 10k%+ potential. Vegas may allow you to play ZNGA poker for real money while you are in Vegas. Because everyone will use an iPad to play virtual poker while sitting in a casino at a real poker table. Perhaps you can bet digital chips at a real table with real cards or bet real chips at a fake table with digital cards. The only question is if the dealer will be a real chicken or a fake one. MAN WHAT A BUSINESS MODEL!!!

buzzsaw99's picture

AMZN definitely. The stock that never goes down. lulz

it reminds me of that john lennon song:

Imagine there's no earnings

It isn't hard to do

No reason to sell or buy for

And no dividend too

Imagine all the shareholders

Living life in peace...

Tommy Gunner's picture

You forgot to mention the use condoms seeping semen and covered in shit - and the sweaty blood and fluid stained tampons and rags....

Debtless's picture

Why we are not shooting and stringing these people who are fucking with our money is utterly beyond me.

knukles's picture

After reading 2 separate articles today forecasting anywhere from say, 15% to 100% increases in health care premiums this coming year under the guise of new ACA (ObamaNotCare) regulations, I wondered about that myself.
I personally abhor violence and would never be a perpetrator thereof, but I'm beginning to wonder just when the first mobs will fill the streets, hoisting petards and heads on spears accompanied by flaming tar torches a la an old 30's film scene, the peasantry attacking Frankenstein's castle....

Seriously, this milking of Joe Public is starting to remind me of the Goose Which Laid the Golden Egg story...

centerline's picture

In reality, J6P (including me) is surrounded by wolves.  All of which want a bigger piece of him.  Big energy, pharma, insurance (house, medical, car, etc.), fees, tags, licenses, ultilities, local taxes, state taxes, federal taxes, etc.  Not to mention food costs.

The restraint in 2012 was amazing.  The wolves did not pounce like I expected.

They are looking pretty hungry though.  Drooling... and I can hear them breathing heavier.



mkkby's picture

When will it happen?  That's easy.  When the snap cards no longer work and 50 million inner city gangstas with guns try to find something to eat.

I think we're a long way from that day. Look how long Greece is taking to play out.  Then there's the rest of Europe periphery.  Then UK/Jap.  Then the US.

Toolshed's picture

In my case, I still have a job and my daughter still needs me. Otherwise, I think a bullet in Lloyds head, a quick surrender, millions in book and movie rights, and the taxpayers supporting me for the rest of my life while I am heralded as a national hero by the masses sounds pretty good. What's your excuse?

Debtless's picture

I guess we're waiting for those with nothing left to lose - to finally lose it.

Count me in though for the second wave.

Tommy Gunner's picture

Met a brit banker in Hong Kong (Goldman) recently - he and his wife left London because they are treated like pariahs there and 'couldn't stand it any longer'


Boo Fucking Hoo.  I felt like saying 'you deserve the guillotine'

No Euros please we're British's picture

Don't forget all the dirty laundry US banks are hiding in the square mile of London. When TSHTF some of that laundry may be returned to sender unwashed.

knukles's picture

Hah ha ha ha
Like the Queen and the rest of the Reptilian Anannukis a comin' on Nibru to save mankind and Make All Right at the end of days Revelation and Resurrection County Fair featuring the Fabulous Hamson to be held December 21 in Wonderful Prunedale, California.

(Rolling eyes)

eclectic syncretist's picture

It just goes to show that accounting fraud is alive and well in the US.  If things get much worse for companies they'll have to come clean to get the next round of bailouts, and it won't be pretty.  No risk of jail apparently though, and the FedGov is throwing the future away to keep the house of cards from falling, so it's steady as she goes for the moment.

Winston Churchill's picture

Steady as she goes....

I think that was Captain Smith's penultimate order..

The final one was 'abandon ship'of course.

Leonardo di Caprio was not there.


rubearish10's picture

We're just better than the ROW at passing off our problems to everyone else like, the ROW!

1835jackson's picture

Did I forget to mention...

It's the hard knock life for us....

chubbyjjfong's picture

A discussion on US energy sources goes down in the local mall.

"We get on like physically and chemically but we are not connecting astralogically and spiritually.. yeah OMG, like I can totally relate"  

"Wait, is there like some kind of world financial situation going on?"

"Yeah like my Mom is like spewing like about getting me that iphone like Yuh"


We are fucked!

knukles's picture

Oh come on, you lifted that whole cloth from CNBS :)

gjp's picture

US is the very core of the financial delusion and always was going to be the last to reckon with reality.  When the curtain is finally pulled back the US dollar will crash and the world will somehow have to attempt to rebuild a global supply chain under new terms of trade.

Hard to say who will fare better or worse relatively at that point (North American natural resource position is pretty good, but our eviscerated manufacturing base is a problem), but it seems easier to guess that we'll all be worse off absolutely.

adr's picture

Tyrone aint's not never seen no screwdriver, but usin dat razor to cut five kilos of coke iza skill dat make Tyrone bank y'all, word.

Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

Kidding itself obviously. I mean this is the Hedge. Bring your doom and gloom forecasts and your gold bitchez!

centerline's picture

From the above charts, pick the one that is the reserve currency without looking at the names.  That is one of the primary differences.  Our ability to export our problems (for now).

ZeroHour's picture

A better analogy would be that we're the best looking horse in the glue factory.

bilejones's picture

The Leper with the most fingers.

q99x2's picture

The US excels at Fraud. The others not so much.

JustObserving's picture

US has the highest debt and unfunded liabilties as a percentage of GDP of any country in the world (890%).  So why is it the cleanest dirty shirt?

Obama will send a drone after you if you think other shirts are cleaner?