This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Is The U.S. The "Cleanest Dirty Shirt" Or Just Kidding Itself?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The following chart is perhaps the best glimpse of the excessively optimistic 'hope' relative to the rest of the world that US equity markets (and their extrapolators analysts) currently possess. Since the start of 2012, analysts, guided by both macro uncertainty and company expectations, have crushed 2013 EPS expectations across all global markets - well nearly all...

So far US EPS has held up relative to the Resof the World...

 

How do you think investors in Japan felt when all of a sudden 'expectations' were slashed - as opposed to a gradual slide that everyone has been pricing in? coming to a US equity market near you soon...

 

It would seem that the rest of the world is expecting 2013 to be a little more difficult than they did at the beginning of 2012... the US analysts, however, not so much...

 

Charts: Morgan Stanley

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:01 | 3060569 Popo
Popo's picture

All true.  The US is in very shitty shape.  However, one should (as a rule) never bet against the side with the biggest army in history, whose bases are clustered around the world's energy resources.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:04 | 3060572 markmotive
markmotive's picture

The 'cleanest dirty shirt' syndrome creates immense systemic risk. The US can borrow at ultra-low rates today...but that's causing behavior that only adds to future risk.

Hyperinflation and the fiscal case for gold:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/293312-hyperinflation-and-the-fiscal-cas...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:10 | 3060609 knukles
knukles's picture

The terms structures of rates world wide have already fallen most of what they're going to do, even if the whole world goes into the Japanese model. 
Earnings expectations world wide would seem to be somewhat elevated given this author's world view of progress toward the Japanese model/Liquidity Trap.
Ergo, in light of the preceding conditions and with no room for anything other than imaginary P/E expansion, why would anybody own any stocks?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 20:05 | 3061259 Dick Buttkiss
Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:06 | 3060589 trollin4sukrz
trollin4sukrz's picture

When the U S goes bust..everyone goes bust.. Revelation 18:11

 

 

King James Bible (Cambridge Ed.)
And the merchants of the earth shall weep and mourn over her; for no man buyeth their merchandise any more:

 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:09 | 3060605 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

and the sky rolled back like a scroll and i saw the lord blankfein up high and mighty. he gathered the people of the world in one place and began separating the sheep from the goats

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:13 | 3060624 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

And the goats receivedeth a reaming of the highest order; and lo, they were the lucky ones.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:22 | 3060657 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

For the sheep were alowed to live so that they may continue to serve lord blankfein.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 21:11 | 3061446 knukles
knukles's picture

Until the merchant bearing the water of 2 and 20 was found lying with thieves and animals of open sores and shedding coats, thence upon the Lord striketh him down for vengeance upon the deeds of evil men remanding his very soul to everlasting purgatory for heinous crimes against the weak and pure of heart for he hath exhibited no contrition and claimed Gods work to be his own

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:31 | 3060690 TWSceptic
TWSceptic's picture

never bet against the side with the biggest army in history

 

You mean like Rome?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:22 | 3060888 trav777
trav777's picture

or the Persians

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:42 | 3060942 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

or the Arabs, the Mongols, the Spaniards, the French and the British

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 19:52 | 3061233 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

UN

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 20:55 | 3061400 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

And the USSR

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 12:00 | 3062788 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Or Saddam Hussein, leader of the world's 4th largest army "the mother of all battles"

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 12:02 | 3062795 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

"All true.  The US is in very shitty shape.  However, one should (as a rule) never bet against the side with the biggest army in history, whose bases are clustered around the world's energy resources."

It's not your army they are attacking. Let's see how much gold your soldiers can dig with their bayonnets.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:06 | 3060584 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's just kidding itself... (you asked)...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:34 | 3060703 max2205
max2205's picture

thanks anyway morgan stanley, but we don't mark to market or account correctly anymore, so EPS is the biggest lie

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:06 | 3060587 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the usa stock market is a maggoty cesspool with putrid dirty diapers floating in diseased piss buckets amongst giant chunks of shit

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:07 | 3060596 trollin4sukrz
trollin4sukrz's picture

damn that reminds me.. lunch time

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:09 | 3060604 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

But it is better than Washington.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:10 | 3060611 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

full disclosure: not long the market. lulz

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:17 | 3060633 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

buzzsaw99, +1, but if you trully wanted to profit from your insight into the usa stock market you would own a portfolio loaded with NfLX, GRPN, ZNGA, FSLR and AMZN.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:55 | 3060801 adr
adr's picture

but which ones to short and which to go long? and then you have to figure that out on the day, and sometimes by the millisecond. Too much work.

NFLX can make you rich or broke depending on the day. Has FSLR come back from the dead? I heard some people made 500% buying Kodak while they were in bankruptcy, of course some held on for half a day too long and lost it all.

Come on ZNGA is a screaming buy 10k%+ potential. Vegas may allow you to play ZNGA poker for real money while you are in Vegas. Because everyone will use an iPad to play virtual poker while sitting in a casino at a real poker table. Perhaps you can bet digital chips at a real table with real cards or bet real chips at a fake table with digital cards. The only question is if the dealer will be a real chicken or a fake one. MAN WHAT A BUSINESS MODEL!!!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:12 | 3061003 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

AMZN definitely. The stock that never goes down. lulz

it reminds me of that john lennon song:

Imagine there's no earnings

It isn't hard to do

No reason to sell or buy for

And no dividend too

Imagine all the shareholders

Living life in peace...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 20:57 | 3061403 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

You forgot to mention the use condoms seeping semen and covered in shit - and the sweaty blood and fluid stained tampons and rags....

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:08 | 3060600 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Why we are not shooting and stringing these people who are fucking with our money is utterly beyond me.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:19 | 3060637 knukles
knukles's picture

After reading 2 separate articles today forecasting anywhere from say, 15% to 100% increases in health care premiums this coming year under the guise of new ACA (ObamaNotCare) regulations, I wondered about that myself.
I personally abhor violence and would never be a perpetrator thereof, but I'm beginning to wonder just when the first mobs will fill the streets, hoisting petards and heads on spears accompanied by flaming tar torches a la an old 30's film scene, the peasantry attacking Frankenstein's castle....

Seriously, this milking of Joe Public is starting to remind me of the Goose Which Laid the Golden Egg story...

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:28 | 3060661 centerline
centerline's picture

In reality, J6P (including me) is surrounded by wolves.  All of which want a bigger piece of him.  Big energy, pharma, insurance (house, medical, car, etc.), fees, tags, licenses, ultilities, local taxes, state taxes, federal taxes, etc.  Not to mention food costs.

The restraint in 2012 was amazing.  The wolves did not pounce like I expected.

They are looking pretty hungry though.  Drooling... and I can hear them breathing heavier.

 

 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:34 | 3060918 mkkby
mkkby's picture

When will it happen?  That's easy.  When the snap cards no longer work and 50 million inner city gangstas with guns try to find something to eat.

I think we're a long way from that day. Look how long Greece is taking to play out.  Then there's the rest of Europe periphery.  Then UK/Jap.  Then the US.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:19 | 3060643 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

In my case, I still have a job and my daughter still needs me. Otherwise, I think a bullet in Lloyds head, a quick surrender, millions in book and movie rights, and the taxpayers supporting me for the rest of my life while I am heralded as a national hero by the masses sounds pretty good. What's your excuse?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:21 | 3060648 Debtless
Debtless's picture

I guess we're waiting for those with nothing left to lose - to finally lose it.

Count me in though for the second wave.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 20:59 | 3061412 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Met a brit banker in Hong Kong (Goldman) recently - he and his wife left London because they are treated like pariahs there and 'couldn't stand it any longer'

 

Boo Fucking Hoo.  I felt like saying 'you deserve the guillotine'

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:10 | 3060610 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Don't forget all the dirty laundry US banks are hiding in the square mile of London. When TSHTF some of that laundry may be returned to sender unwashed.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:22 | 3060658 knukles
knukles's picture

Hah ha ha ha
Like the Queen and the rest of the Reptilian Anannukis a comin' on Nibru to save mankind and Make All Right at the end of days Revelation and Resurrection County Fair featuring the Fabulous Hamson to be held December 21 in Wonderful Prunedale, California.

(Rolling eyes)

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:25 | 3060664 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

It just goes to show that accounting fraud is alive and well in the US.  If things get much worse for companies they'll have to come clean to get the next round of bailouts, and it won't be pretty.  No risk of jail apparently though, and the FedGov is throwing the future away to keep the house of cards from falling, so it's steady as she goes for the moment.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 18:15 | 3060999 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Steady as she goes....

I think that was Captain Smith's penultimate order..

The final one was 'abandon ship'of course.

Leonardo di Caprio was not there.

 

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:11 | 3060613 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

We're just better than the ROW at passing off our problems to everyone else like, the ROW!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:11 | 3060614 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

Did I forget to mention...

It's the hard knock life for us....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4sQI8Evfhc

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:11 | 3060616 chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

A discussion on US energy sources goes down in the local mall.

"We get on like physically and chemically but we are not connecting astralogically and spiritually.. yeah OMG, like I can totally relate"  

"Wait, is there like some kind of world financial situation going on?"

"Yeah like my Mom is like spewing like about getting me that iphone like Yuh"

 

We are fucked!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:24 | 3060663 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh come on, you lifted that whole cloth from CNBS :)

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:13 | 3060620 gjp
gjp's picture

US is the very core of the financial delusion and always was going to be the last to reckon with reality.  When the curtain is finally pulled back the US dollar will crash and the world will somehow have to attempt to rebuild a global supply chain under new terms of trade.

Hard to say who will fare better or worse relatively at that point (North American natural resource position is pretty good, but our eviscerated manufacturing base is a problem), but it seems easier to guess that we'll all be worse off absolutely.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:00 | 3060827 adr
adr's picture

Tyrone aint's not never seen no screwdriver, but usin dat razor to cut five kilos of coke iza skill dat make Tyrone bank y'all, word.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:15 | 3060629 Rearranging Dec...
Rearranging Deckchairs's picture

Kidding itself obviously. I mean this is the Hedge. Bring your doom and gloom forecasts and your gold bitchez!

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:16 | 3060630 centerline
centerline's picture

From the above charts, pick the one that is the reserve currency without looking at the names.  That is one of the primary differences.  Our ability to export our problems (for now).

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:20 | 3060645 ZeroHour
ZeroHour's picture

A better analogy would be that we're the best looking horse in the glue factory.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:40 | 3060936 bilejones
bilejones's picture

The Leper with the most fingers.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:22 | 3060653 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The US excels at Fraud. The others not so much.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:25 | 3060662 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US has the highest debt and unfunded liabilties as a percentage of GDP of any country in the world (890%).  So why is it the cleanest dirty shirt?

Obama will send a drone after you if you think other shirts are cleaner?

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 16:55 | 3060798 khakuda
khakuda's picture

I'm as pessimisstic as anyone when it comes to bad fiscal and monetary policy and broken political systems globally.  Government policies have been the problem here and abroad and the bad policies continue and seem to get worse by the day as TPTB double down.  Excessive leverage in the financial system, unsound money, expanding sovereign debt, expanding government, you name it, all need to get purged at some point.  Hopefully, things get bad enough soon that they do and we get back on the right track.

I am still optimistic I will live long enough to see the day when once the policies reveal themselves to be an utter failure, maybe we'll get back to the limited government that allows for people to get back to being curious, solving problems, innovating, inventiing and making life better for others.  Humans are ingenious and can do amazing things when they are free to.  The US founders figured out the secret sauce but the bureaucrats running the show today seem to have lost the recipe.  For now.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 17:38 | 3060931 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Good job regurgitating your training, little sheep.  Let me guess, God will make it all work out in the end.  Or mommy.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 19:26 | 3061147 khakuda
khakuda's picture

You missed the point entirely.  We are on a path where it looks to gets much worse and probably fall apart before it can get better.  Free markets outperform socialism and central planning, that was the point.

If ZH gets shut down and free speech gets banned, then you may have a point, and we're fucked.  But as long as guys like you can keep blabbing freely and making even stupid points, there is hope.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 21:10 | 3061445 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

The point (that you are missing) is this:

There are 7 billion people on the planet - and that is increasing exponetially. 

We live on a planet of limited resources - we have reached the End of CHEAP oil (if you doubt it then why are we now extracting oil from tar sands from from fracking when not long ago both were economically unfeasible due to high costs)

Oil is only the beginng - there will be no fish left in the oceans within a generation - as for other resources, the low hanging fruit is disappearing which means the cost to extract increases which puts a massive drag on global growth... which ultimately means endless recession giving way to endless Depression ... which will result in massive riots which will result in martial law then totalitarian regimes the world over

 

Refer to the law of economics - supply and demand - chasing scarce resources.... what do these lead to?  Of course war.

Now make the resources even MORE scarce - what does that lead to?  War.  And to the 0.1% hoarding what is left and saying 'fuck you bitch - I have a private army - I am taking what is left' 

Fuck your free markets - they will not save you. Hoping and praying will not save you (in case you didn't realize it - there is no god)

 

If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.   George Orwel

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 23:35 | 3061832 bilejones
bilejones's picture

There are 7 billion people on the planet - and that is increasing exponetially.

 

No, it's not.

Thu, 12/13/2012 - 21:01 | 3061417 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

You'll need to live till 1000

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 00:33 | 3061917 TradingTroll
TradingTroll's picture

Uranium Laced Fukushima Sushi and Cesium Chowder should be good for -1bn people. there will be lots of inedible fish.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!