CPI Drops 0.3%, Largest Decline Since December 2008
If yesterday's better than expected initial claims numbers were bad for the market (as they implied the approach of the Fed's QEnd), today's CPI should dissolve some fears of an imminent, and very unrealistic, end to easing. Because as the Fed explained, employment is only one component of the QEnd calculus, inflation is another. And with November CPI dropping 0.3% sequentially (up 1.8% Y/Y), on expectations of a -0.2% M/M, and +1.9 Y/Y, also the biggest sequential decline since 2008, there is not much to worry about on the inflation front... as long as one doesn't count other inflation "expressions" such as modern art, insurance costs, student tuition, or even the S&P and other credit funded items into account. Core CPI also missed the expected rise of 0.2%, growing at 0.1%. Biggest components of the price drop were energy prices, declining (-4.1%) from October, Apparel (-0.6%) and Used cars and trucks (-0.5%) - thank you GM channel stuffing. Alternatively, prices rose for food at home (+0.3%), Electricity (+0.7%) and food away from home (+0.3%). We may need some more QE4EVA+1^? soon if this continues.