The Old Normal: Presenting 140 Years Of Market Cycles

Tyler Durden's picture


Edson Gould, deceased author of the once-famous Findings & Forecasts investment newsletter often said that "History always repeats, only the details change". This insight, a handful of carefully chosen technical indicators, and a deep understanding of crowd psychology enabled him to make some remarkable calls during his career. The graphic below, courtesy of Addogram, plots Gould's "Sentimeter" ("the market price of $1 of dividends") the inverse of the US 10-year Treasury yield, the gold price and an index of commodity prices. Needless to say he was quite right; "History always repeats, only the details change".


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Fri, 12/14/2012 - 20:21 | 3065124 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

other stuff worth including in graph (maybe):

avg tax on trade, income, wealth, and speculation 

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 09:04 | 3066045 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Martin Armstrong put out some pretty stuff about this....until he got too close to the light....and they threw his ass in prison.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 10:49 | 3066165 economics9698
economics9698's picture

Here is a blog I just finished showing the relationship between spending, taxes, and deficits.  It ties into this nicely and the graphs are split up into 1947-71 and 71-2012 so you can see a before and after of the Bretton Woods system.

"The Hoover Institute looked at tax collection from 1947 to present with tax rates as high as 91% and the taxes collected as a percentage of the GDP is remarkably consistent 19.5% (actually 17.6%) of the GDP. Simply put the tax debate is a dog and pony show. There is the Hoover graph with a link.

Actual taxes collected as a percentage of the GDP according to the White House:

1947-56, 16.8%.

1957-66, 17.4%.

1967-76, 18.05%.

1977-86, 18.2%

1987-96, 18.10%.

1997-2006, 18.5%.

2007-11, 16.3%."




Sat, 12/15/2012 - 11:15 | 3066200 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Elliott Wave International is probably the foremost analyst of long-term cycles.   Here's a recent vlog I did on the big picture:

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 03:19 | 3068212 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

except they believe in elliot waves which don't predict anything, and as an analytical past-only descriptor tool, they also aren't terribly useful.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 19:58 | 3065051 Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

Screensaver version?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 20:06 | 3065072 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

im long oxen and salt!

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 20:09 | 3065084 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Excellent work reporting this week Tylers! These markets have more chop in them, then a cheap B-rated horror flick.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 20:11 | 3065093 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture


Fri, 12/14/2012 - 20:39 | 3065175 Tenshin Headache
Tenshin Headache's picture

That graph depicts perhaps the worst decision ever made by a US President, when Richard Milhouse Nixon dropped the gold standard. THAT was the time for some belt-tightening.

This is a nice demonstration of "karma" on a big scale - unwise, misinformed or wrongly motivated decisions can cause a great deal of misfortune down the road. If only today's politicians, bankers and businessmen had some inkling of that notion.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 21:12 | 3065283 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

"That graph depicts perhaps the worst decision ever made by a US President, when Richard Milhouse Nixon dropped the gold standard."


Indochina 1

USA 0 

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 05:18 | 3065906 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

communists thank nixon for using them for factory slavery.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 14:32 | 3066646 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Rocketing imports of oil - aye

US Domestic production of oil peaking - aye

Ft. Knox was roughly ~3-5 years of oil imports at the time....

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 20:49 | 3065197 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

The truth is simple (“real” is inflation-adjusted):
The main enabler of sizable asset price bubbles (very harmful) is keeping the real price histories out of sight.  JUST TAKE A LOOK!
“The People Are Severely Fooled”
“Home Prices & the Dow, each Inflation-Adjusted. A recent Dow day.”

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 21:09 | 3065271 MrButtoMcFarty
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Sat, 12/15/2012 - 01:41 | 3065753 pfairley
pfairley's picture

Sorry. I could not gain any inspiration from it. Is it better on drugs? Please specify which.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 04:26 | 3065867 prains
prains's picture

it's actually the updated version to pong, except now you watch instead of play

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 20:40 | 3067511 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture


What does he think he just told us?

I already have complet disdain for charts.

....of the "predictive" variety.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 08:37 | 3066028 liszt
liszt's picture

History does not repeat.

There are no cycles in economy, also economy doens't "recover". Private global economy isn't sustainable without debts. Therefor thanks kaynesians making debts plausible, whitout them you wouldn't be.

This is more and more a junk blog, guys ! if you have nothing to say, avoid posting ! i don't enjoy reading silly single word exclamation. You have no brain, face it. And don't bother me with with your insanity. 

50% of peoples here belong into a sanatorium for mental health and retardness. You are stupid, have no idea whatsoever, never get any diploma, never learned anything. You enjoy following the master here who is a facist : Heil Tea Party & Ron Paul.

The proof is that economy ever collect people who didn't succeed anywhere else ! Wasn't good enought for mathematics, the heck, sell something !

I know it's hard to face the dark stupidity of your void mind... a tragedy. Now, believe it, Ron Paul will save you ! And Mark Faber of course !

The problem is not politics, it's logic. It's because you make logical errors, that you believe in dreams which can't happen. So, cure your THINKING ! It's not opinion, believing, agreing, disagreing, it's about the truth ! Hence either you continue being as stupid as a cow or you begining asking yourself if capitalisme is or not, sustainable. And it isn't, because every busines put more offer than demand on the market, because as keynesian said, spared money never return to economy ! or not enought.






Sat, 12/15/2012 - 09:30 | 3066066 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

OK......I'm game.......Tell me the truth oh sage one.....You seem to have a monopoly on the subject so enlighten to poor unwashed masses..........or just go foch yourself and STFU.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 09:37 | 3066073 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Really no comment needed, your writing and logic skills speak loudly about you ha!

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 07:12 | 3068309 samcontrol
samcontrol's picture

Be fare , it deserves comment , anyone starting a sentence with "And" should enlighten us and share what college he went to.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 10:32 | 3066146 TrulyBelieving
TrulyBelieving's picture

Hope you're just a troll trying to convince others of state propaganda. Otherwise, your mind is a terrible thing to have wasted. 

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 10:55 | 3066178 centerline
centerline's picture

Ohhhh, an MMT sighting!  Do you whack off to a picture of Krugman each night?  Get your jollies thinking double entry accounting is the secret to the universe?  Like other keynesian moonbats, do you claim to have had an epiphany at the moment you "understood" the divine nature of economics after much hard thought and thousands of sheets of ledger paper?

Minksy - bitch

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 11:58 | 3066262 thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

"This is more and more a junk blog, guys ! if you have nothing to say, avoid posting !"

Maybe this is a junk blog, where any idiot can post.  If only I could find some evidence of that. . .

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 15:18 | 3066816 valuecreator888
valuecreator888's picture

Lizt, Sounds like your world is crumbling around you.

Don't worry, everything will be OK. Nobody gets out alive, and life is a miracle. Enjoy!


and it's Marc Faber with a C, douchebag!

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 12:16 | 3066301 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Well this at least exposes the lie and shows that cash isn't king. At least not over the long term. Cash may have ruled the markets at times a hundred years ago but not since.

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 18:58 | 3067294 Radical Marijuana
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