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Visualizing US Capital Outflows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For months now we have been 'told' that the US is the cleanest dirty shirt, that the US has decoupled, that US markets are the deepest and therefore will inevitably be the sinkhole of global liquidity; but things appear to be shifting - quite rapidly. This week has seen Europe's VIX (16.6%) drop below US VIX (16.8%) for the first time this year and Europe's Euro Stoxx 50 (Dow equivalent) is dramatically outperforming the US Dow (+13.5% vs +7.75% YTD). What is most dramatic, and highlighted by today's gap-like behavior in EURUSD, is the total dislocation between EUR and US equities. Are we seeing a wholesale capital outflow beginning as US' Fiscal Cliff fears trump any year-end shenanigans potentially coming from Europe (post-Summit)? One thing is for sure, certain media individuals will have to change their tune now Europe is the year's winner and the US becomes the center of the world's event risk focus.

Stocks (upper pane) and volatility (lower pane) are winning in Europe...

 

and this week has seen the repatriation of capital quite clearly from US to Europe...

 

and incase you were wondering from where and to where those funds were flowing... AAPL is about to lose its battle with European banks in terms of market cap...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Fri, 12/14/2012 - 15:23 | 3063717 rubearish10
rubearish10's picture

Love the analysis, however, can it be this obvious?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:06 | 3063976 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes.

On another topic - PMs....

Naked short selling?  By the PWG and its proxy PDs? 

Weak hands (HFs) throwing in the towel? 

Is the currency volatility sweeping gold with it?

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 15:25 | 3063726 youngman
youngman's picture

What it shows is the chasing of returns....and the lemming hedge funders all doing the same thing...

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 15:25 | 3063735 centerline
centerline's picture

EU - US CB professional hot potato game.  Toss back to the US in 3... 2... 1...

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 15:29 | 3063766 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Au is suprisingly weak given the EURUSD...

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:04 | 3063974 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Gold's gotten a sniff of higher interest rates coming soon(ish)

I'm staying away from AU and NASDQ for a little while...abnormal behavior with AAPL schizophrenia slinging the QQQ's around

Silver looks pretty cool though

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 15:41 | 3063784 Confundido
Confundido's picture

.

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:05 | 3063979 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Flash crash in stocks currently under way....

Fri, 12/14/2012 - 16:25 | 3064124 chancee
chancee's picture

It's Friday, which means the market isn't allowed to go down, which means the ES is being propped up to keep the whole market from falling.  Never ends. 

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 13:42 | 3066519 Bill Shockley
Bill Shockley's picture

What we see next is the beginning of the end for the last great military industrial complex. The USA will go the way of the Soviets and for the same reasons. We are eating our tail

Secondly, innovative minds in the USA won't grasp the need to socialize some aspects of the economy while thoroughly educating the population first in general and secondly on ethics.

 

Consequently our country has degenerated into rule by the rich and the violent and their proxies. It's OK to be a dumb shit these days because it's hard to rember to turn off the television/game boy, cell phone.

 

As a nation we will continue to fail unless we assume a defensive posture internally. This includes the retrrofitting of the military for internal civilian use and local service for citizens groups on our command during the wind down.

 

This is how northern Europe functions, increasingly the developing nations are adopting their model as we move toward a global currency and banking system that will defend a united governance...after the colapse and the reorganization that is coming.

 

Sorry I can't spell and my checker won't work.

   bill

Sat, 12/15/2012 - 19:17 | 3067342 rocker
rocker's picture

All Window Dressing Bitchez. Do Not Short Financials. Just let them Die.

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