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17 Macro Surprises For 2013

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Just as Byron Wien publishes his ten surprises for the upcoming year, Morgan Stanley has created a heady list of seventeen macro surprises across all countries they cover that depict plausible possible outcomes that would represent a meaningful surprise to the prevailing consensus. From the return of inflation to 'Brixit' and from the BoJ buying Euro-are bonds to a US housing recovery stall out - these seventeen succinctly written paragraphs provide much food for thought as we enter 2013.

 

Via Morgan Stanley:

Just When You Thought it Was Dead, Inflation Returns (Joachim Fels/Charles Goodhart)
A strong economic rebound in China and the US, adverse supply shocks in agriculture and worries about swelling central bank balance sheets lead to a sharp rise in actual and expected global inflation. Central banks don’t dare to respond, given high debt levels and financial fragilities, and either continue to ignore or abandon their inflation targets. Rising wheat prices lead to bread riots. In the UK, Chancellor Osborne advises the British to eat oatcakes instead.

Debt Cancellation (Spyros Andreopoulos)
The US Treasury, Japan’s Ministry of Finance and Her Majesty’s Treasury jointly announce that the Treasury debt held by the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England respectively as a consequence of QE purchases are cancelled, and that these central banks will operate with negative equity until further notice. As a consequence, government debt/GDP ratios are brought down by 11pp, 18pp and 25pp, respectively. Ratings agencies love it, as does the bond market – until it realizes that large-scale debt monetization has just taken place, and sells off sharply.

US Over the Cliff and Likes it (Vincent Reinhart)
The US goes over the fiscal cliff and likes it. A deal delayed to early 2013 in which politicians compromise because of concerns about financial markets would resolve uncertainty more assuredly than the baseline of stop-gap legislation followed by a plan later in the year. As a consequence, confidence gets a boost, pent-up business investment kicks in and the labour market improves more rapidly.

US Housing Stalls Out (David Greenlaw)
The burgeoning housing recovery in the US begins to stall due to credit tightening. There is still no private mortgage market at this point and financial problems are brewing at the FHA which could lead to a dramatic reduction in credit availability for first-time homebuyers. Meanwhile, putback risk continues to cause originators to increase scrutiny for conforming loans.

BoJ Leads World in Adopting Rule-Based Monetary Policy, but Exit from Deflation Lags (Robert Feldman/Takeshi Yamaguchi)
Following a change in its leadership, the Bank of Japan switches to target the ex-food ex-energy CPI, adopts price level targeting to make up for past deflation, and implements a base money growth rule based on deviations of the actual CPI from the desired path. However, the targeted CPI measure remains negative year on year in December 2013, and the BoJ maintains aggressive policy into 2014 and beyond.

BoJ First to Buy Euro Area Bonds, ECB Left Watching and Waiting (Elga Bartsch)
The Bank of Japan, as part of its more aggressive policy stance to fight deflation (see above), starts to acquire euro area government bonds in order to push down the yen before the ECB is able to activate its OMT program. While the BoJ acts, the ECB waits in vain for the Spanish government to apply for an ESM credit line and OMT bond purchases. The BoJ focuses its purchases on ESM/EFSF bonds as well as higher-yielding core and large peripheral markets and thus effectively becomes a lender of last resort for the euro area.

Italian Politics Revives the CRIC Cycle and Triggers OMT (Elga Bartsch/Daniele Antonucci)
A lively anti-austerity campaign in the run-up to the early elections causes investors to seriously worry as to whether Italy could be contemplating an exit from the euro. The convertibility risk, which the ECB’s OMT announcement had reduced, returns and Italy is forced to seek an ESM credit line and becomes the first country to trigger the OMT. Unfortunately, the damage has been done as markets now believe that the convertibility risk is political rather than monetary. Investors sell the euro and peripheral assets and stock up on tinned food and mood-boosting pills.

From ‘Grexit’ to ‘Brixit’ (Elga Bartsch)
Financial markets come round to the idea that Greece will stay in the euro for the foreseeable future. Instead, investors are getting increasingly concerned about the UK’s political stance on Europe, especially in view of a possible referendum on EU membership. Polls during 1H13 start to suggest that an exit of the UK from the EU is now seen as more likely than an exit of Greece from the euro. The London property market wobbles as financial institutions start making contingency plans for moving employees to Frankfurt and Paris.

The UK Formally Gives Up the Fight Against Inflation (Melanie Baker)
As inflation looks set to remain well above 2% for yet another year, the government begins to fear that targeting inflation at the 2% level will mean an abrupt end to very low interest rates in the not-too-distant future...or a sharp loss of Bank of England credibility. MPs increasingly argue that embedding a bit more inflation might be a good thing for helping the UK economy out of its difficulties. The government raises the MPC’s inflation target and, for good measure, it merges the Monetary Policy Committee and Financial Policy Committee together.

Recession Returns to Australia (Gerard Minack)
Australia hasn't had a recession for 21 years - arguably, one is overdue. Markets view the risk as low: fixed income markets are pricing in only 1-2 more rate cuts, and equities have re-rated through 2012.

Not the Right Green Shoots in EM (Manoj Pradhan)
EM green shoots develop further, but from the ‘wrong’ sources of growth. Better DM growth and/or an unwinding of the shock to global exports stabilizes EM exports and hence production. Complacency sets in and structural reforms to move away from the broken, export-investment-led model are put on the back-burner. The result? EM growth deteriorates shortly after.

China’s Shocking Tightening (Helen Qiao)
The Chinese government inadvertently tightens financial conditions aggressively by applying a ‘shock therapy’ during the early stage of the recovery. Off-balance sheet lending activities are banned and forced to roll back onto commercial banks’ balance sheets, causing a major liquidity freeze in the system. More credit defaults occur, giving rise to higher systemic risks. The economic recovery unravels.

The AXJ Productivity Booster (Chetan Ahya)
Policy-makers in Asia ex-Japan move aggressively to implement policy reforms, boosting the region’s productivity dynamic. China accelerates the move up the value chain and boosts consumption growth; India unveils more measures to lift investment in the economy; and Indonesia initiates reforms which improve the competitiveness of the non-commodity sectors. This raises productivity growth in the region, which has slowed significantly since the crisis, and results in higher corporate profitability.

Mexico’s Moment Arrives in its Long-Troubled Oil and Gas Industry (Gray Newman/Luis Arcentales)
Newly inaugurated President Enrique Peña Nieto surprises with a passage of aggressive constitutional change in Mexico’s oil and gas industry – he gains the political upper hand in energy and fiscal reform by starting his six-year term with a big boost in social programs and promises that energy/fiscal reform will provide even more revenues for social spending. MXN rallies on the prospects of a new FDI wave and the sovereign sees an upgrade.

Brazilian Policy Shifts from Stimulating Demand to Boosting Supply, with Ambitious Infrastructure Program (Gray Newman/Arthur Carvalho)
President Dilma Rousseff surprises most Brazil watchers as she follows through on her promise of an ambitious infrastructure program, lifting the globe’s sixth-largest economy from near the bottom of the globe’s infrastructure rankings. The technical details show attractive IRR triggering large investment inflows from abroad. BRL rallies more than expected on the news.

Turkey Goes Boringly Orthodox in Rates (Tevfik Aksoy)
The Central Bank of Turkey switches back to a conventional, orthodox and less exciting monetary policy in 2013. It removes the non-standard and creative tools designed to achieve inflation and financial stability goals at the same time. As a consequence, it faces new challenges of currency appreciation, currency volatility and no meaningful decline in the current account deficit. The experiment fails and policy switches back to non-conventional measures later in the year in an attempt to recoup the loss of credibility.

Back in the USSR (Jacob Nell)
Putin is successful in enticing Ukraine into the Eurasian Customs Union in return for energy subsidies which reduce its balance of payments financing need to a level which requires neither painful policy adjustment nor a sharp FX adjustment. This closes the door on EU entry for Ukraine, since you can’t be a member of two customs unions at once, and leads to economic reintegration of the main post-Soviet states – Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus. The removal of trade and investment barriers – particularly if accompanied by a pro-investment, pro-market set of Russian-led policies – triggers higher growth across the region, while Russian energy subsidies would stabilize the hyrvnia and ruble.

 


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Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:35 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
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US Over the Cliff and Likes it (Vincent Reinhart)
The US goes over the fiscal cliff and likes it. A deal delayed to early 2013 in which politicians compromise because of concerns about financial markets would resolve uncertainty more assuredly than the baseline of stop-gap legislation followed by a plan later in the year. As a consequence, confidence gets a boost, pent-up business investment kicks in and the labour market improves more rapidly.

LOL. Yeah, pent up business investment kicks in and the labour market improves more rapidly...and Krugman's aliens attack earth. Get fucking real.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

The U.S. isn't going over the fiscal cliff.

2013 will be a carbon copy of 2012.

More printing.  More people out of the labor force.  Contractions in Europe.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2012/12/yesterday-i-hiked-ten-miles-through.html

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:54 | Link to Comment boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Printing only helps (a few) bankers. Corporations need us to buy their stuff.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

Byron, why do they call it Blackstone

and why is your offspring called Blackrock?

and spare us the yiddish/greek schwarzpertos bs

my name is Zer0Head

but I don't call my fcking company noBlowJob

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:28 | Link to Comment markmotive
Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:31 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

There are two options for 2013 in terms of he cliff.  The first is that the cliff leads to a few minor jobs cuts, worry, and then apathetic return to delusion.  Seasonal job growth and loss, and in general, a continuation of increasing joblessness.  Then there is a path somewhere between, the original possibility, and the more extreme and unlikely possibility, that corporations and businesses panic in said event of a full cliff moment, and begin cutting jobs and investment, leading to hyper deflations.  However, In my honest opinion, this is simply another stop along the way to a greater collapse, 2-10 years down the road.  The cliff will be praised by idiots, feared by business owners, and loved by bankers.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 02:27 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

& remember, to not panic.  Make your plan, work your plan, and be prepared.  This can go up in flames in two years, or 10 years.

It is most important to NOT PANIC.  I say this because, according to the Hegalian dialectic, The reaction the Illuminati are looking to trigger is a fear based panic.

Do not play into the plan.  Rise above and think critically.  www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVUL6PQrU60  & when you need it, music will always be there.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:58 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Thank god I tuned in just in time to listen to the Banker bullshit! NOW I can start investing wisely......as soon as I stop pissing myself laughing....I'll fade any of their bullshit

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 03:08 | Link to Comment ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

#18. We are all living in the Truman Show.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 04:30 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

More like "The Prisoner" . Of course, in the old days drones were a whole lot goofier than they are today (30:20).

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
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@ ball-and-chain

Nice blog, keep up the good work!  It's hard, believe me, I know...

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:05 | Link to Comment GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

"The U.S. isn't going over the fiscal cliff. 2013 will be a carbon copy of 2012."

Yeah, it looks like a slow bleed-out death is what we're going to have. Everyone is waiting for a crash, but it's just going to slowly wind down with more and more people falling over the edge while those close to the edges themselves hope they don't fall over as they slip closer and closer. Meanwhile, the ultra wealthy and powerful will rake in more and more as the remaining wealthy rushes toward them. The transfer of wealth upwards has been ongoing for decades now. Funny how that one doesn't get everyone in a frenzy. Try transferring it downward and watch folks get all worked up.

Of course, food shortages, or something beyond the control of the owners, or something that awakens this heavily drugged and slumbering society could change that quickly. For now, the slow death continues.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:16 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

That one, the "Chancellor tells Brits to eat (oat)cake" and the Debt Cancellation ones seem more like jokes while the rest seem like unlikely but possible scenarios.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:22 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

More like 2 million are laid off from the sequester and 10 million laid off from the 500 billion tax increase that goes straight to the deficit without stimulus and 1 million are laid off from the price Boner will want for the debt ceiling increase. Business types will be just giddy. If it does turn out that the business types are giddy, we should raise taxes because there will be more unemployment and severance to pay.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:36 | Link to Comment ZeroAvatar
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I dunno.......isn't 13 an unlucky number?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:38 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
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Barron's published their "Outlook 2013" this weekend.

Review of Barron's -- Dated 17 December 2012

http://tinyurl.com/cmkbs6x

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:40 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

and parents lose EIT and other crap. More single mothers resort to prostituion and so does college girls. Parents sell their kids on ebay. welcome to Amerika, Will fuck for IPHONE society

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:59 | Link to Comment EARLPEARL
EARLPEARL's picture

supply is more than demand now...blow job 2 lortabs....round the world 1 oxy...can/t get much cheaper...the viagra cost more than the sex

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:51 | Link to Comment Northern Lights
Northern Lights's picture

Agreed.  Young college girls in hock for tuition these days will go down on you if you take them out for a hamburger and milkshake.  After paying tuition, there's nothing left for food.

 

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:06 | Link to Comment Anusocracy
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Perhaps there will be an increase in the kidnapping of the Elites' children.

 

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:39 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
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i dare anyone to raise rates. anyone. who's first? let's see what happens. 

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:41 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Too many pussies in the USSA. Home of the pussies, Amerika.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment h0oS
h0oS's picture

I see your rates, and raise you with secession in the US, the collapse of Israel and a gold standard.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Currency is Debt
Currency is Debt's picture

fonzanoon, ill double dare them with you. When you anchor rates at a certain level, there is x amount of elasticity before you create a new recession. Most of this money was issued at 0% ish to the banks. 2% is attractive versus 0% 2-4% is attractive. if rates hit 3-4% party stops

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:21 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

How about the Fed sets a sharply negative rate like -5%, and withdraws all paper money from circulation so the negative rates cannot be circumvented.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:42 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Surprise #19

Israelis withdrawl all Jewish settlements from occupied Palestinian territories...

~~~

[Has about as much chance of happening as the rest of this slobbering bullshit brought to by banking analysts pretending to be relevant ~ See... anyone can pull shit out of their ass if they're determined enough]

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:59 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Agreed.  All of the above scenarios seem like made-up BS fantasies.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:09 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Surprise #20 

Israel signs the Non Proliferation Treaty and opens its nuclear sites to international inspection.

[Just joking -- John Kerry's not gonna let fairness and reasonableness ruin a great land grab!]

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:16 | Link to Comment zerozulu
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Surprise #21

Bernank decided to stop printing.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:45 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
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Rates are locked in(2016)---  need moar trees----to print paper....

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 06:55 | Link to Comment JoBob
JoBob's picture

Moar?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Currency is Debt
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AUDUSD Chart 1996-2012

Record net longs on the aud at the minute.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:55 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Hey C/D, you are pretty smart. You caught that drop (gap down) in aud/usd. Good job!  Do not step in yet/ That is why i mentioned the DXY h-4 chart earlier.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Currency is Debt
Currency is Debt's picture

Would you be long or short? In theory around 1.10 id go short with relatively wide stops, but the market world is a crazy place in recent years. Australia and Canada have undergone booms longer than normal business cycles. their resource sectors are enormous, but usually there is a problem in going only up for too long. imbalances build....

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

short/ s/t ( i'm short/short term)  Do you people think I went overseas for pleasure?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:47 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
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OF COURSE you went overseas for pleasure, friend of nmewn!  Now take that + 1 for what it's worth!

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 22:27 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

nmewn is a good man. First of all. DoChen I would expect better from you?  You generally seem to be level headed?

 Are you implying something? I'm Christian, if you want to know?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Dollar Dives Decidedly (TraderTimm)

Debt finally reaches unsustainable levels (in terms of hiding and press spin), and the Treasury Curve goes nonlinear. China, having laid the groundwork for making Yuan-denominated trades with its economic partners - pulls the plug and takes the U.S. investment writedown to save itself. In a final stroke of irony, the US Dollar plunges below parity with the Euro.

 

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:50 | Link to Comment Currency is Debt
Currency is Debt's picture

Wheat Futures Chart, 2009-2012

Inflation measured by commodities huge in recent years. To list a few Crude Oil, Wheat, Corn etc. 

Crude Oil, WTI is up over 850% from 1999-to date

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:52 | Link to Comment tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

We Are Headed To A Historic Collapse Of The Financial System And US Will Lose Its Status As The Sole Superpower Which Will Bring About Global Chaos In 2013, With The “World After” Beginning To Emerge.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/we-are-headed-to-a-historic-collapse-of-the-financial-system-and-us-will-lose-its-status-as-the-sole-superpower-which-will-bring-about-global-chaos-in-2013-with-the-world-after-begi/

 

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:40 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

I like LEAP overall but they are clearly blind to Europe (where they live). They think the ESM will be all right, that more integration is good and that all will be solved real soon. RIIIIIIIIIIIGHT.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:13 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Surprise # 14: while interviewing the Kimberly Clark CEO on his show Cramer slams the BUY BUY BUY button so hard his body recoil causes him to crap his pants. In attempt to cover up he makes it seem like he faked the incident and ties it into a toilet paper question about the company. As the interview rolls on and the obviousness of what happens sets in, Cramers studio employees begin to walk out behind him looking visibly sick from the noxious fumes. Cramer finally loses it and takes his pants off and starts throwing his feces at these people.

The next morning he comes on air and apologizes for his passion for stocks getting the better of him. The studio hosts forgive him and praise him for the passion that he continually exudes (literally).

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment kentmills
kentmills's picture

The market raises US rates, the Fed's balance sheet implodes, debt is transferred to the Treasury (you and me) and Amerika gets a big fat IMF bailout. We The People are finally recognized as globalist chattel.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

18. Food prices remain stable , but size portions are cut 90%

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

Michelle goes on Oprah to discuss the benefits of a slimmer society and calls this "the best thing to happen to America since my husband was elected"

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:01 | Link to Comment OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Wookie and Oprah both drop their drawers on live TV and Amerika is shocked to discover which butt is huger

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Food rationing? Very possible. 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:21 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

2013 will be the year when US finally decides that a gallon consists of only 6 pints.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment WillyGroper
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52 Squidoo

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

The Saudi Royal Family is overthrown by the people of Saudi Arabia, much like in Egypt. OPEC sells oil in it's own currency.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:43 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

That would only be allowed to happen if the Bankster cartel were to be able to seize their foreign assets

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:42 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

I believe they pulled assets to safety when they were threatened to be sued for 9/11. Still, stolen promises aren't worth as much as oil in the ground, especially if you have to pay the new price.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:54 | Link to Comment TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

That's a silly statement. Do you think they'd give a shit about paper assets held abroad if they could start printing their own paper at a value that far outstrips the other stuff?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:54 | Link to Comment TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

That's a silly statement. Do you think they'd give a shit about paper assets held abroad if they could start printing their own paper at a value that far outstrips the other stuff?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

That's a silly statement. Do you think they'd give a shit about paper assets held abroad if they could start printing their own paper at a value that far outstrips the other stuff?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:55 | Link to Comment TheProphet
TheProphet's picture

I see the website is working well this evening.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

Restoration of the Caliphate

The Muslim Brotherhood gains power in Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Along with Egypt, these four countries merge together to form a new Caliphate with a single constitution, gold backed currency and sharia law.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 00:07 | Link to Comment bilejones
bilejones's picture

That would be great, A none Fiat currency I could believe in (and invest in).

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:22 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

Morsi has a green card. FYI

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:23 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Won't happen. The Royal family have a big ass praetorian guard protecting them and they are not doing it for the money or for the country, but for GOD. The only way you get the royal family is if you kill all their protectors... the Saudis have it way too good (because of oil money) for that to happen.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:40 | Link to Comment HurricaneSeason
HurricaneSeason's picture

They say the cost of keeping them happy is $96 a barrel due to some of the recent happiness bonuses. It's well below that now with a global slowdown and economic cliff coming.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:39 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

And there are like 40,000 princes, so they have sheer numbers on their side, too.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:45 | Link to Comment formadesika3
formadesika3's picture

Scar plants a garden. His household net worth declines but he is just as happy at the end of 2013 as he was at the beginning of 2013.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:10 | Link to Comment EARLPEARL
EARLPEARL's picture

numer 14...obama and all dems promise to forgive all private debt up to$ 50,000 ..they enlist steve keen to draw it up...house and senate become democrat controlled again...usa is doomed but everyone has healtth insurance and a new car/ and 2 flatscreens

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:33 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

probability is higher for a million dollar forgiveness.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture

The US and most major agricultural areas of the world suffer a second great drought due to climate change...food becomes scarce and expensive. Food riot break out all over the globe. 

Several major natural disasters occur from climate change at least as bad a Sandy

The Middle East goes from stupid to insane and large scale warfare consumes most of it

Financial markets finally implode, yields soar, global depression gets nitro boost overdrive and the whole ponzi system collapses in a giant martial law anarchy heap.

That's my call and I'm sticking to it

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:41 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

You are supposed to write about a macro SURPRISE here, not highly likely events that are expected.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

2012 was bad 2013 will be worst.

The can kicking is done.  A perfect storm of chaos, we have it coming. 

Obama won't make more than a year in office.  Hillary, who should have replaced him, is falling apart. Metaphor and reality converge as history/nature sends us a reminder of our mortality.

Everyone will turn against central banks.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:40 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

chump

news for ya

absolutely no one knows what a central bank is except us and a few dedicated people interested in liberty...probably less than 1% of the population....ask around...ask: 'who is Ben Bernacke?" shoulders will shrug and the topic of conversation will return to 'the fiscal cliff' and then quickly back to football.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:46 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Maybe people will wake up?

I have hope in humanity.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Chump and Currency and as debt and anyone... I witnessed an organization today debate how to invest it's savings from a sale of a building. It was a decent amount of money but nothing crazy. The point is they were debating locking the money up for 7 years at 1.8%. I asked them what their bank was paying on 1yr CD's. They said 1%. I asked them if the extra .82%/yr was worth their investment being illiquid. The answer I got was "Yes". They said interest rates are not going up. I asked them if they would pay the bank to hold their assets if rates went negative. They sat there at first in disbelief at the possibility. Then they said "I guess, what else would we do?". They then agreed that as long as they got 0% that is better than doing something where they could lose principal.

People seem to be okay with financial repression. As long as it ensures a shred of the world they used to know.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 22:03 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

I see your point with cash, but not many people have cash.  And if you have cash you get almost no return+ erosion from inflation (bill, insurance rates, food, gas etc etc etc) But  the issue will be rates on debt, look at credit card yielding 16% on repayments and since Obama loved the idea of creating a mini credit boom post/pre election, and the Fed could slam mortgage rates down, but no way will consumer/business credit go under 10%. It is adjusted for risk and inflation. Otherwise  Wall Street might as well close up shop.

So they got people running on the spot as wealth is ripped from all angles.  After the 2012 con, they will be pissed as hell.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:34 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

...war, major stand up fight.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:41 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

You will hate me / The $ will bounce next week.

 I'm taking a 2 hour nap before London opens/ I am going to build my position/

 or go into V-Fib---------

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:43 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Why? If you read my posts I am DXY bid. 

I agree.   

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:47 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Of course the dollar is going to bounce. Wait till we go off the cliff. The dollar should climb bigtime. The cuts and tax raises will actually end up being surprisingly celebrated by the media. "The US takes it's medicine!"

Now go ahead and eliminate that debt ceiling....we are good for it.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 22:29 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Was generalizing chump/ my appologies.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:40 | Link to Comment alentia
alentia's picture

Even I am not Ukranian, but "hyrvnia" is not a currency of the Ukraine, it is "hryvnia" or "hrivna" or "grivna".

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:39 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

US Goes Full Retard & Starts WWIII

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:44 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

That would be a surprise?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:48 | Link to Comment Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

Bad News? This market buys on bad news as much as it does good.

Having said that, I assign an 80% probabiity that the U.S, stock market returns a post dividend negative return in 2013. Smarter money, assuming there is any left, will start it off by driving this market down a few hundred over the next 2 weeks. Lemmings will follow suit making January a somewhat ugly month.  

 

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:50 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

We've decoupled.

Where's Hendry I want to hear from Hugh.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 22:22 | Link to Comment drwillia1
drwillia1's picture

Should see new highs in 2013

http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 22:33 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Chump I have several very nice short positions/ I'm going to take some profit into the London open/ short covering(buy stops)  will get hit/

 Then I'll add more/

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 22:35 | Link to Comment realtick
Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:16 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Japan and China go at it.

North Korea and South Korea go at it.

North Korea's regime collapses.

All hell break loose in the middle-east. (Iran, Syria, Turkey, Russia, Israel, Hezbollah, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia)

The west coast gets annihilated by a big earthquake, resulting in a meltdown of Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant.

Cascadia goes off.

Fukushima goes critical, they have to evacuate Tokyo.

The Chinese people says ENOUGH IS ENOUGH and revolt against the Chinese government, starting a civil war.

India-China go at it.

Russia-Georgia go at it.

Armenia-Azerbaijan go at it. (Russia-NATO on each side)

Revolt in Venezuela/coup d'etat.

Argentina is helped by other south american countries to get back the Falklands.

Radicals get elected in Pakistan and end all deals with America.

NATO continues pushing east, putting Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, pissing off Russia.

Anti-EU and anti-Euro parties get power in Italy.

Anti-EU and anti-Euro parties get power in Germany.

Civil war in Lebanon.

There's lots of shiat that is building up that could turn very bad in 2013.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:47 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

You people are DOING IT WRONG. The topic is Macro SURPRISES for 2013.

Here would be an example:

North and South Korea suddenly open their borders and begin peaceful reunification, and it goes smoothly. Viewed as very positive, as massive stimulus for South Korea to invest in and build infrastructure in North Korea. Psy and Kim Jong Un perform Gangnam Style together on stage for the Reunification Festival.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:25 | Link to Comment alfbell
alfbell's picture

Texas announces secession proceeding. 20M Americans migrate into Texas from other states. Businesses move there in droves. All the Idaho and other heavy duty patriots move into Texas as well. No civil war occurs as Texas is bad and becoming badder with continual influx of Americans. Texas, the 15th largest economy in the world, becomes the 10th largest in less than 5 years.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:56 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

That would be awesome.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:24 | Link to Comment zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

I bet Washington state will be the first.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:47 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

oh I nearly forgot.

Since we get two a year now:

2013 will have a slew of rogue trades, real nasty ones too. 

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:54 | Link to Comment rawsienna
rawsienna's picture

Morgan Stanley has too many analysts with too little to do.  Who the F&&k cares!!!

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:59 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Obama turns against his banksters friends, put out arrest warrants for much of his staff and congress and banksters in the country. Call back all the troops around the world. Dissolves the FED. All unconstitutional laws that congress has passed are made illegal. Guantanamo is closed. Lots of top ranks CIA are arrested for war crimes. All officials in the Bush administration and Clinton administration are arrested for treason and war crimes. Presidential powers are made null and void.

Obama becomes the greatest president since JFK.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

sounds like the prediction for 2014

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 07:41 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Sounds like a fairy tale. Either he is joking (which is where I'm leaning), or he doesn't understand Obama. This will never happen.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 00:10 | Link to Comment bilejones
bilejones's picture

I finally get off my butt and buy the wife the Glock.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:16 | Link to Comment August
August's picture

OK, but let her shoot the Springfield first.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 04:43 | Link to Comment GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

ladies prefer Rugers

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:14 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

I don't think US bonds can be legally cancelled by the Treasury or the Fed, but the Treasury could mint platinum coins with a face value of $1 trillion. By depositing those coins with the Fed, the raw seigniorage would accomplish the same thing, and retire the US debt far below the debt ceiling.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:55 | Link to Comment Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

Ah yes, the loophole of the letter of the law, wouldn't affect legitimacy of Federal Reserve fiat at all...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:24 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

The macro surprise will be negative nominal interest rates accross the board, worldwide.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 02:33 | Link to Comment cxp
cxp's picture

Todays institutional orderboard (As of 6 am London) for EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY, EURGBP updated at TNIFEED

EURUSD Orderboard

$ 1.3300 Stops
$ 1.3250 Stops
$ 1.3220 Stops
$ 1.3190 Offers into .3200
$ 1.3120 Demand on approach
$ 1.3100 Demand on approach
$ 1.3070 Medium demand
$ 1.3050 Medium demand
$ 1.3041 Thursday Dec 13 low

Refer to http://tnifeed.com for all the orderbook.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 03:17 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Tyler, are you going to report on Apple selling 2M iPhone 5's in the first weekend?  They sold the same in 3 days what they sold in the entire quarter for the 4s.  This is kind of a big fucking deal.  I'll be waiting patiently for your analysis.

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2012/12/17/apple-sells-over-2-million-iphone...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 03:44 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Yet another story about the future while very few people understand the past and even less know the present.

Let's talk about the present: stocks up in Asia, Euro getting stronger by the minute, PM crashing ... bankers and media still fiddling.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 07:40 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

There is no 2013 because on 12/21/2012 the world disappears inside a black hole.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Brixit?? Why has the financial crisis spawned an obsession with crap neologisms?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment omniversling
omniversling's picture

+1

The UK is not even a BRICS country..

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