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European Risk Catalysts For The Next Six Months

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The following is a list of key events to watch over the next several weeks and months – events that could have bearing on how the euro sovereign debt crisis evolves.

As a reminder - the trajectory of Europe is NOT up...

 

December:

  • 18 December: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 27 December: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 28 December: Italy auction. Bonds.

January:

  • January: Greek disbursement. Ireland takes over
  • 1 January: Ireland assumes rotating presidency of the EU. Ireland takes over from Cyprus.
  • 8 January: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 10 January: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
  • 10 January: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 15 January: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 17 January: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 21-22 January: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. Latest meetings of the 17 euro area and 27 EU finance ministers. On the agenda: the sixth review of the Portuguese loan programme; Stability and Growth Pact implementation for euro area countries; and the follow-up on ‘Four Presidents’ roadmap to closer integration.
  • 22 January: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 30 January: World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland (to 1 January).

February:

  • 7 February: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference. The latest bank lending survey will be available to the ECB. This will be published in late January or early February.
  • 7-8 February: EU leaders’ summit.
  • 11-12 February: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. Latest meetings of the 17 euro area and 27 EU finance ministers. On the agenda will be the Annual Growth Survey conclusions. This is the exercise in which the Commission sets out the priorities for member states to follow in order to achieve growth. The AGS is part of the new ‘European Semester’, the integrated policy coordination framework. The AGS priorities for 2013 are: reducing national debts without harming growth; restoring normal lending to the economy; promoting growth and competitiveness; tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis; modernising public administration;

March:

  • 4-5 March: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. The agenda is expected to include: the second review of the Greek loan programme; the second review of the Spanish bank recapitalisation programme; and the implications of the Commission’s winter forecast revisions for the excessive deficit procedures.
  • 7 March: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference. The new staff forecasts will be published. We expect a 25bp refi rate cut, but not a deposit rate cut into negative territory.
  • 10 March: (tentative) Italian general election,

April:

  • By April: Italian general election.
  • 4 April: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
  • 11-12 April: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. The agenda is expected to include: the seventh review of the Portuguese loan programme; the seventh review of the Irish loan programme; and Stability and Growth Pact implementation for euro area countries.

May:

  • 2 May: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
  • 13-14 May: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. The agenda is expected to include: the Commission's spring forecasts; Financial and macroeconomic stability developments in the euro area, including monitoring of individual Member States; and the Macro-imbalances procedures – in depth reviews euro area countries.

June:

  • 6 June: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
  • 20-21 June: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. The agenda is expected to include: the European semester - discussion on Stability and Convergence programmes and euro area specific recommendations, including implications of the Spring forecast for excessive deficit procedures and possibly excessive imbalance procedures for euro area countries; and the latest reviews of the Greece, Ireland, Portuguese and Spanish loan programmes.

 

Via: Deutsche Bank

 


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Sun, 12/16/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

That's a lot of "juggling" ....wonder what will happen if they through in some more "profitable" wars in ME...BULLISH! sarcasm off

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Cash2Riches
Cash2Riches's picture

Were at the point now where the slightest breeze will cause a global crisis.

 

http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 15:44 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Take out a six month loan, and time will fly by like nothin!

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 15:55 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

No we are not anywhere near a crisis point.  No one wants this thing to fall, no one meaning the elites.  The sheep are just that sheep we will be fleeced and we will become accustomed to the pain. Human beings are very good at acclimatizing to painful conditions and we will do it again. 

This time the global elites have Bernays and his offspring to placate the masses more effectively then ever.  Do not make the mistake of thinking we are representative of the masses we are not.  All of us as a result of our online activities are marked as potential issues and we can be managed. Fantasies of a global reset are fantasies nothing more. The Titanic may go down but all the lifeboats are reserved, look at the burgeoning police state being put together for our benefit.  Just stay within the lines of bread and circus and you'll be fine.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

We just need one more cash infusion from the IMF to get over our financial hurdle. We promise, and plan to honor our pinky swear this time around.

/sarc

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 16:42 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Thanks, Currency is Debt 

Bring back the deutschmark/  bitchez

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Currency is Debt
Currency is Debt's picture

Well its funny Yen because 27 eu countries are operating with a Euro, which they lack the control to monetize through printing (ie they are not in control of their own currencies to devalue them as done in the past). Im not for the old printing per se, but we have countries in their worst economic era in pretty much their history. ie Spain, Greece etc. 25% official unemployment rate. For all you guys in the US there are countries in a greater depression than the Great Depression. Bernanke has suceeded moderately in propping up the US economy and driving mortgage rates low, as yet not too much may have been released to mainstreet though. At what cost remains to be seen, possibly wild inflations due to extreme dollar debasement that has taken place. In southern Europe rates are high and there is no liquidity and there is no lending. In the meantime 'austerity' for main street, high unemployment, depressed wages, no credit is killing some Euro members countries citizens. EU unemplyment is 11.6%? or so average vs 7.7% in US.  

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 And yet the European Union is trying to ratify/ a common banking authority?  definition of insanity/ Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results!

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 15:26 | Link to Comment earleflorida
Sun, 12/16/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Forgot the Greek revolution but maybe that has already started.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'll comment after the gaps get filled? eur/usd) what a 30-60-90 day swap quagmire!

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:41 | Link to Comment uncle reggie
uncle reggie's picture

Yawn.

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