European Risk Catalysts For The Next Six Months

Tyler Durden's picture

The following is a list of key events to watch over the next several weeks and months – events that could have bearing on how the euro sovereign debt crisis evolves.

As a reminder - the trajectory of Europe is NOT up...

 

December:

  • 18 December: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 27 December: Italy auction. Bills.
  • 28 December: Italy auction. Bonds.

January:

  • January: Greek disbursement. Ireland takes over
  • 1 January: Ireland assumes rotating presidency of the EU. Ireland takes over from Cyprus.
  • 8 January: Greece auction. Bills.
  • 10 January: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
  • 10 January: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 15 January: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 17 January: Spain auction. Bonds.
  • 21-22 January: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. Latest meetings of the 17 euro area and 27 EU finance ministers. On the agenda: the sixth review of the Portuguese loan programme; Stability and Growth Pact implementation for euro area countries; and the follow-up on ‘Four Presidents’ roadmap to closer integration.
  • 22 January: Spain auction. Bills.
  • 30 January: World Economic Forum, Davos, Switzerland (to 1 January).

February:

  • 7 February: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference. The latest bank lending survey will be available to the ECB. This will be published in late January or early February.
  • 7-8 February: EU leaders’ summit.
  • 11-12 February: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. Latest meetings of the 17 euro area and 27 EU finance ministers. On the agenda will be the Annual Growth Survey conclusions. This is the exercise in which the Commission sets out the priorities for member states to follow in order to achieve growth. The AGS is part of the new ‘European Semester’, the integrated policy coordination framework. The AGS priorities for 2013 are: reducing national debts without harming growth; restoring normal lending to the economy; promoting growth and competitiveness; tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis; modernising public administration;

March:

  • 4-5 March: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. The agenda is expected to include: the second review of the Greek loan programme; the second review of the Spanish bank recapitalisation programme; and the implications of the Commission’s winter forecast revisions for the excessive deficit procedures.
  • 7 March: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference. The new staff forecasts will be published. We expect a 25bp refi rate cut, but not a deposit rate cut into negative territory.
  • 10 March: (tentative) Italian general election,

April:

  • By April: Italian general election.
  • 4 April: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
  • 11-12 April: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. The agenda is expected to include: the seventh review of the Portuguese loan programme; the seventh review of the Irish loan programme; and Stability and Growth Pact implementation for euro area countries.

May:

  • 2 May: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
  • 13-14 May: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. The agenda is expected to include: the Commission's spring forecasts; Financial and macroeconomic stability developments in the euro area, including monitoring of individual Member States; and the Macro-imbalances procedures – in depth reviews euro area countries.

June:

  • 6 June: ECB Governing Council meeting, followed by the interest rate announcement and press conference.
  • 20-21 June: Eurogroup/ECOFIN meetings. The agenda is expected to include: the European semester - discussion on Stability and Convergence programmes and euro area specific recommendations, including implications of the Spring forecast for excessive deficit procedures and possibly excessive imbalance procedures for euro area countries; and the latest reviews of the Greece, Ireland, Portuguese and Spanish loan programmes.

 

Via: Deutsche Bank