Guest Post: The Two Charts You Should See Before Risking A Dime In The Market In 2013

Tyler Durden's picture


Via Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Two charts suggest a major decline is ahead in 2013.

"Don't fight the Fed," blah blah blah. Really? What did the market do after QE3 and QE4 were duly announced? It tanked.
What if the Fed is out of tricks? It's not really a question; Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said as much in his press conference. It's not clear if the Ibogaine was wearing off or just kicking in, but the Chairman had an apologetic deer-in-the-headlights look of, "Gee, we're out of tricks and I'm sorry to have to tell you what is painfully obvious to everyone who isn't stoned silly on Delusionol (tm)."

Now that the Fed's magic hat is visibly out of rabbits, there are all sorts of complexities we could hash over such as the effects of bank charge-off rates on GDP or the Theater of the Absurd "fiscal cliff" play-acting, but why waste all that time and energy when a number of charts forecast trouble for the stock market in 2013?
The first overlays bank derivatives with positive fair value against the S&P 500 (SPX), lagged 28 months. Is it cricket to lag or advance indicators? Technician Tom McClellanthinks so, as his forward-12-months eurodollar COT/SPX chart has been eerily prescient in forecasting major market moves in 2012.
Here is an article on the chart: Stocks And Euro-Dollar Futures Positioning (11/7/12)
Keeping in mind that there is no one indicator or chart that accurately forecasts market moves consistently over time, consider this overlay of bank derivatives and the SPX:

Charts courtesy of longtime correspondent B.C.
Hmm. If there is a correlation here, it doesn't look positive for equities in 2013.Those familiar with McClellan's chart know that it forecasts a serious decline in the SPX in early 2013, followed by a countertrend rally that tops in May. The decline after May is the Big One that punishes everyone who stayed long the SPX.
Next up, a long-term chart (from 1973 to the present) of the SPX, adjusted to the trade-weighted U.S. dollar. Were this basic A-B-C pattern to hold, the SPX will reverse sharply in 2013 and fall to the nearest trendline around 600, with a drop into the 300s possible. Yes, yes, I know it's "impossible" since the "Fed has the market's back," but the Fed may have to buy most of the market if it wants to keep it elevated at current levels.
As a lagniappe, there is a third pattern suggesting a major decline just ahead:Three Peaks and A Domed House Pattern Signals An End To The Bull Market.
Anyone who has studied a few charts knows that it is usually possible to torture a chart to fit the pattern one has already selected as the "likely outcome" (i.e. confirmation bias). But even with this caveat firmly in mind, 2012's SPX bears an uncanny resemblance to the classic Three Peaks and A Domed House Pattern.
Here is another analysis of three peaks and a domed house.
Could these charts be way off in their forecast? Of course. Nobody knows what the market will do tomorrow, much less next month or next year. Maybe the bulls predicting a new high in early 2013 will be proven correct. We will just have to see what happens. But as the saying has it, "Forewarned is forearmed."
Thank you, B.C., for sharing your charts with us.
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Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:36 | 3069391 vast-dom
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Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:44 | 3069409 TheGermanGuy
TheGermanGuy's picture

Short common sense


Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:27 | 3069462 Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

The mainstream media reporter NWO enemies of the people are on a gun grabbing rampage and they are not addressing the real causes for the culture of violence, for their own agenda. Here's how we stop them.

The common thread in all the recent mass shootings is, men in their early 20's were brought up 24/7/365 for a decade or more on violent 1st person shooter training video games, and violent movies.

Gun Owners must demand a ban on video games like Call of Duty, Grand Theft Auto, and all other 1st person shooter video games.

Gun Owners must demand an end to Violent Movies like Bat Man, Zombieland, and all other mass murder movies.

Make these demands 1st before a single new gun ban is put in place.

Mothers Against Gun Violence in Entertainment (MAGVE) groups should speak out against Hollywood, TV, and other entertainment gun violence genres.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:30 | 3069485 7againstThebes
7againstThebes's picture

Yes, tremendously insightful comment.  Thanks

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:36 | 3069490 Confused
Confused's picture

I'll support a ban on violent video games, when the country decides to ban killing people in other countries for false reasons. 



Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:16 | 3069561 Michaelwiseguy
Michaelwiseguy's picture

There is no expectation of a ban on suggested items, but to raise awareness of the actual problem and encourage voluntary compliance. I know this goes against The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, but we can use this episode to squash their program. 

Coupled with the heavy use of Psychiatric Drugs and enhanced with first person shooter video games, we have a recipe for disaster.


Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:27 | 3069629 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

next your thought expirement will extend to bans on bad parenting (those allowing kids to play videogames), 12oz sodas, etc. 


next you say why not just ban stupidity? -- that should solve about 95%+ of all global problems, while allowing for guns, games and pretty much everything else, save for said stupidity. only issue is that 99% of those suggesting bans are stupid.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:30 | 3069651 Michaelwiseguy
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The Entertainment and Pharmaceutical industries must be included with punishment for their role in increased gun violence.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:53 | 3069868 AldousHuxley
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crazy kid kills in Connecticut = the devil


crazy kid kills in Iran wearing US flag = the hero




Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:11 | 3069759 Western
Western's picture

You're mistaking socially engineered cattle for generic stupidity.


There's a difference between a three stooges moment and an entire generation brought up to believe the hype about justin bieber, pizzas are vegetables, joining the military is cool, you only grow up as fast as your age or years in school, etc etc etc etc.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 01:48 | 3070386 PlausibleDenial
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Hey there Vast, parents can have all the thought experiments they want, but when their kids get on the school bus that all goes out the window.  Try as you must, it is really a question of discipline.  It only creates a dichotomy that results in kids playing videos at their friends house.  Do you have kids????



Mon, 12/17/2012 - 06:52 | 3070599 Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

What you need to ban is irresponsability.


"I came here to give you these facts, your choice is simple... join us and live in peace... or pursue your present course and face obliteration... we shall be waiting for your answer... the decision rests with you."

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:34 | 3069662 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Try to take away our MW3 and you'll get a volley of lead.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:36 | 3069663 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Make these demands 1st before a single new gun ban is put in place.



not a single new restriction is tolerable. period...none.

yes I have kids and feel a part of the heartache these parents must feel....I doubt there can be a greater loss....

Drudge reports a similar event in China (20 children dead) on the same day carried out with an edged weapon.

Our gun rights and the loss of these parents are not related. I am sorry but that is the truth. Most cannot imagine a government traveling at night roustin unarmed citizens from their homes and sending them to torture and death, stealing their babies and raising them as their own children. Most have not read "Imagining Argentina" by Lawrence Thorton from the mid 80s. It happened in a very civilized country not so far away in distance or culture. Because of this we must resist being disarmed any further as we enter a potentially dangerous era.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:17 | 3069776 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

The weapons you or I can obtain - legally or illegally - are inconsequential in comparison to the weapons possessed by our government. If they decide to take your guns, they will pry them for your cold dead fingers.

Sad fact.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 22:11 | 3069901 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

I am prepared for that and, it could happen, but, I will go out a free man.Welcome to Texas

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:52 | 3071809 Kobe Beef
Kobe Beef's picture

IEDs stopped the Empire cold on the streets of Baghdad. Have the Imperials adapted to this tactic yet? I think not. Perhaps the military, but certainly not the various Alphabet Agencies which would be called up to disarm the people.

So, study the methods and tactics of the Iraqi/Islamic theater resistances, as a way to defeat the Empire here. There are several books on Amazon detailing such. Enjoy!

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:20 | 3071394 Greyzone
Greyzone's picture

Every single mass school shooter since and including Columbine was someone who, as an adolescent, was being treated with psychoactive drugs for mental illness.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:46 | 3072727 e-recep
e-recep's picture

what makes the american children more special than the iraqi children blown to pieces by hellfire missiles sent by american drones?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:44 | 3069510 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

Short "normal" market.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:48 | 3069520 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Short time remaining to prepare.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 23:04 | 3070046 monkeyboy
monkeyboy's picture

Haha Delusionol (tm).

I've got to get me some of that, my life would be so much better.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:48 | 3069524 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

Anyone who invests in the market without inside information is a dolt.

They deserve what they get.

This market is now in the hands of fraudsters and carnival barkers.

Buyer beware.


Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:16 | 3069770 Tango in the Blight
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I only invest the gold and silver market by buying gold and silver coins from my trusted dealer, paying with cash fiat.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:57 | 3069876 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ 1

That's a big part of a successful strategy to be prepared for almost anything.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:36 | 3069392 spastic_colon
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Happy Gleichhaltung everyone!

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:36 | 3069393 Currency is Debt
Currency is Debt's picture

Fed Funds Rate Chart 1954-2012

Doesn't seem to be any room for maneouvre.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:36 | 3069394 Yen Cross
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Elloquent ) vast-dom

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:38 | 3069399 DoChenRollingBearing
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Barron's has 10 strategists in their "Outlook 2013" Cover Story.

Review of Barron's -- Dated 17 December 2012

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:39 | 3069402 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

How is King $ going to react to this yen back filling? DXY H-4 chart looks puzzling?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:39 | 3069403 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

But but 401K's are up is that the sheeples keep saying.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:54 | 3069429 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I've been watching the mutual funds available for my wife's 401K. One day recently VSMIX went down 12% and another day last week CSRSX got hit. So someone out there is hurtin'. FSEVX went down 3% on Friday. Looking scary out there in the long-only mutual fund environment.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:46 | 3069413 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

I just bought one dime worth of AAPL stock to be contrary to the title of this article... and because I thrive on risk.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:54 | 3069431 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

A dime? As in  10 shares? You will make some money going into the N.Y. session/ If you you got filled @ limit order bids/

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:55 | 3069432 Muppet Pimp
Muppet Pimp's picture

May I suggest Dangerous Fund II sir:

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:06 | 3069452 Conman
Conman's picture

Say what you will about Gross but his pimco fund netted me 10% ytd.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:12 | 3069594 Yen Cross
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Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:55 | 3069426 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"Tricks"? More like Black Magic


Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:56 | 3069433 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

" I'm here" Master of disaster?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 18:55 | 3069430 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

SP500 weekly is looking pretty weakly.


The pending fall in the markets will be a very long process.  This will not happen quickly.  But when bottom is finally made, it will be a different planet.


And the bottom?  Well below March 2009 low.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:00 | 3069439 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

" but the Fed may have to buy most of the market if it wants to keep it elevated at current levels."

Wasn't this the plan?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:20 | 3069616 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

"" but the Fed may have to buy most of the market if it wants to keep it elevated at current levels."

Wasn't this the plan?"


Well, yeah.   But you're leaving out the intermediate steps of destroying the foreign market for treasury securities and lighting off inflation to destroy all savings in dollar denominated accounts.

Seems like a fair price to keep the EBT cards filled though, aye?    The banks loan the government capital at a low interest rate knowing they'll never get the principal back.   The congress critters hand out a few trillion to buy themselves 2-6 more years during which they can pocket their share of the looting before the shit hits the fan.   The fed/banks get to destroy the equity markets, then divert a trillion or two to buy up equities (with the next 40 years of US tax revenues) to offset the bogus dollar loans made to the fedgov to keep the EBT cards filled today.

Everybody's happy, right?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:03 | 3069445 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The DHS will co-sponsor a UN law to abolish Ben Bernanke creating money out of thin air pea shooting device. This instrument will be deemed as a financial weapon of mass destruction. CNBS correspondent Steve Liesman will describe this event as, “horrific”…  Adding, “the FED must continue to feather the accelerator of monetary policy, Bernanke has an exit strategy come Q3 of 2013”.


TV sitcoms just don’t get any better, too bad it’s not an active network show. Just think about all that advertisement revenue.


Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:09 | 3069457 q99x2
q99x2's picture

BTFD. Bernank is jacked in. The whole thing is a fraud to control the masses. He won't let the market down until the NWO is ready to kill us.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:28 | 3069482 mkhs
mkhs's picture

Then hurry sundown.

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 21:21 | 3069783 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

If you BTFD and STFP (sell the fucking peak) you're still trading with monopoly fiat money. Do it with other people's money but convert your own cash to real money. Gold and silver bitchez!

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:27 | 3069483 Dr. Sandi
Dr. Sandi's picture

I wasn't aware that anybody was playing the stock casinos anymore other than a few insurance companies and a bunch of pension funds. So who was this particular article written for anyway?

Or is this just some weird attempt to bait the algos into doing something stupid?

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:42 | 3069504 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Lay low/ I'm already in the money on the crosses. I'm looking to add. London open will be fun/ London is still the most liquid market on Earth/

  When markets get (volatile) it's all good!  Real traders use skills to ride momentum/ 

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 19:54 | 3069540 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

Real traders riding momentum/ will be like what Slim Pickens rode in Dr. Strangelove.


It was fun while it lasted!

Sun, 12/16/2012 - 20:14 | 3069602 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Watch and learn [space boy]  if you can stay up long enough?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!