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Albert Edwards: “Something Bad Happened In November"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From SocGen's last standing realist, Albert Edwards, now that both Dylan Grice and James Montier have departed for the buyside.

“Something bad happened in November”……

 

...I have spotted the excellent Lakshman Achuthan of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) doing the rounds reiterating his call that the US economy is already in a recession. He seems to be getting a bit of stick recently, but as I am fully aware, bearers of bad news are usually derided. I think he is doing an excellent job of explaining his stance patiently and clearly in the face of some very hostile interviewers. His recent 7 December analysis on the ECRI website of why a recession is likely to have started around four months ago is well worth an uncomfortable read - link (see also the related video link).

 

Certainly if the US has already slipped into recession, this would help explain why our preferred measure of whole economy profits declined, albeit marginally, in Q3. We have always monitored pre-tax, domestic, non-financial, whole economy profits particularly closely because this measure of the underlying profitability of the business sector is probably the best leading indicator of domestic business investment, and that has also been weak recently.

 

Many have attributed the weakness in investment to uncertainty about the fiscal cliff. But if underlying profits are under pressure, then so too will be investment. So although much of the S&P eps downgrading by analysts is being attributed to severe weakness abroad, what the latest whole economy profits data show is that the domestic business situation is also weak. The ECRI recession call should be listened to more closely.

 

Certainly the latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey in November was entirely consistent with an economy already firmly back in outright recession. The headline optimism series plunged 5.6 points in November to 87.5, which the NFIB itself says is one of the lowest optimism readings in the survey's long 30 year history.

 

“Something bad happened in November…and it wasn’t merely Hurricane Sandy”, the NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg is quoted as saying - see chart below and link. Even scarier than the decline in the headline measure was the 37% slump to an all-time low in those firms who believe economic conditions will improve over the next six months. That 37% drop is twice the previous record 18% decline, which occurred in the immediate aftermath of the Lehman’s collapse (see chart below). For those who might immediately retort that this is a sentiment indicator that should be used as a contrary indicator - you are wrong. It is a good leading or at worst coincident indicator. I would say this datum is more than consistent with the recession that Lakshman Achuthan of the ECRI has been warning of, wouldn't you?

 

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Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:28 | 3071229 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

of course something bad happened.  the election was finally over and communism won a second term. 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:30 | 3071235 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Did you learn about communism from Bazooka Joe bubble gums comics?

Look up fascism and get back to us....

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:35 | 3071256 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

All I know is that I've seen this before in other countries and it doesn't end well.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:39 | 3071270 CPL
CPL's picture

First it starts in the Universities, once they are gone.  Then the media is rounded up, including the fart catchers that thought they were a "shoo-in".  Then the hospitals are taken over and doctors are killed one by one until someone jams a scapel in the hand of the Janitor, the only person walking the halls of the place.   Then it just gets worse from that point...

 

Bosnia...all those pleasant memories.  I understand it's still a shit hole.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:44 | 3071288 Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

Isn't it about time that Charlie Sheen is back in the news... or will it be anothe O.J.Simpson trial to keep the sheeple side tracked?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:00 | 3071339 michiganmaven
michiganmaven's picture

The mass shooting wasnt enough for you to be distracted?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:45 | 3071454 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sorry, shootings are getting too common to distract for long. Now all you get is comparative analysis of how the current tragedy stacks up to other incidents. The audience is getting jaded.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:12 | 3071556 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

they why the stooped even lower....and went with kindergarten kids.....regular school/mall shootings weren't panning out.....

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:23 | 3072372 Spigot
Spigot's picture

Gee! I wonder what happened in Novemeber to cause independent business to think the future was going to be multiple of times worse for them then the Lehman collapse? Ummm, well, Sandy would be a boone due to supplying the reconstruction effort. If anything that would have been a positive. (assumes thinker posture) hmmmm.... Oh! I think I've got it! A natural disaster can be dealt with by increasing business activity. But an UNNATURAL Disaster, such as the re-election of the fraud known as BH Obama, can't be healed by more and more business activity. The UNNATURAL DISASTER of Obama's second term MUST be (in the view of independent businesses) multiples of times worse impact than Lehman.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 19:37 | 3073083 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

zh just had an article on charlie sheen today:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-17/guest-post-oil-still-leaking-ma...

oh, wait, that was a different oily sheen, my mistake...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:16 | 3072609 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

Places that descend to the status of shit hole rarely recover until many generations have passed and verdant greenery has replaced the works of man.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:06 | 3071364 zerozulu
zerozulu's picture

America is filling the place left empty by Chinese communism and Russian socialism.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:46 | 3071777 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Do those other countries include China, who is expressly communist, and who is kicking our ass economically?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:37 | 3071261 Steve in Greensboro
Steve in Greensboro's picture

Fascism is when the government takes over business.  Communism is when the government takes over everything.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:40 | 3071274 john39
john39's picture

not really, fascism is when the corporations take over government...  and create a totalitarian state.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:48 | 3071301 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  this guy is an idiot.  The fascists buy your "representation" in order to change laws making theft legal.  The totalitarian laws are put in place later for your "protection" in order to crush any uprising when it eventually becomes clear that a massive theft has occurred.  The GOP fell for it hook, line, and sinker by marginalizing Ron Paul and changing the rules at the convention so that these delegates and any voice for prosecuting the fraud was silenced.  Idots like this will get what they deserve.  Real conservatives should have gone apeshit when a 30-seond vote was "adopted" in order to silence these voices. Bread and circuses until the supply chains break, enjoy.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:59 | 3071495 Seer
Seer's picture

No, I don't think that the GOP fell for anything.  They KNOW that this is how it's done if you want power.  Ron Paul should never be equated with the GOP.

REAL anyone doesn't play party politics, because... it's all NON-real.  One either DOES or one shuts the hell up.  We have WAY too much (meaningless) talking going on and not nearly enough action: politicians and talking-heads do NOTHING.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:31 | 3071665 Jake88
Jake88's picture

You're not paying attention. The GOP is as much a part of this fascist take over as the democrats. They marginalized Ron Paul precisely because of that. There is only one ruling party the CFR. Both parties answer to the CFR. The NDA act, a law put in place to crush any uprising, was passed by 95% of the Senate. Republicans and democrats alike passed an unconstitutional law that takes away your right to due process. 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:08 | 3071366 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Maybe the best way to say it is "Fascism is when corporations and the government are indistinguishable".

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:00 | 3071498 Seer
Seer's picture

BIG POWER = BAD = FAIL!

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:03 | 3071509 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

This notion implies that there is ever a distinction between them. The very idea of a corporation arises from legal fiction...government.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:05 | 3072563 smacker
smacker's picture

Not really.

Mussolini took over the corporations, as did Hitler, and created "corporate states". They both had henchmen sitting on the boards to control and direct investment/production. And in the case of Musso I always thought he got the trains running on time, although I'm later assured that all he actually did was to get the Italian media to report that the trains were running on time. Musso is where one Mr Tony 'Teflon' Blair in the UK got his ideas from.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:07 | 3071368 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

I was thinking we have something more in the lines of corporatism with a dictator in power who wants to destroy any potential for people to profit off the collapse of the society they engineered.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:24 | 3071627 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

so what are the leftwing socialists that rely on corporatism to extract taxes to  support their agenda

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:49 | 3071792 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

They're not relying on corporatism.  They're trying to separate corporations from government and tax those corporations.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 15:27 | 3072033 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

government is a corporation.  we just vote for the board of directors who once in office try to stay in office.  The Boards hands are tied by numerous contracts between the government corporation and other corporations with words like union, university, health and department of in their name amongst other words. 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:29 | 3073401 smacker
smacker's picture

Actually, fascist governments don't usually take over businesses in the sense of stock ownership; that's what the commies do. Fascists usually exercise control via the regulatory system. To influence this process, big corps pay over $bribes$ to government (donations and others) to ensure favorable regulations. What you end up with is corrupt, crony capitalism and the citizen/consumer is always the loser. Best example of this is the banking industry today: Too Big To Fail -and- Too Big To Jail.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:39 | 3071269 Canadian Dirtlump
Canadian Dirtlump's picture

What is developing IMO is a defecationally enhanced new hybrid system. You have on the top end, a quasi fascist banana republic, letting crony corporations get away with murder through their puppets in the government.. BUT, on the low end you have socialism in the form of escalating hand outs which serve ostensibly as bribe money for hangers on, and the increasingly marginalized middle class to not riot.

 

I call this new system ROBO A.I.D.S. ism

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:39 | 3071272 Capitalist
Capitalist's picture

Historically, Fascism is a far-right movement. Would not say Obama, Democrats and Republicans with their big government agenda are far-right.

It's all semantics anyway because Communism, Fascism and Totalitarianism are all forms of tyranny.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:58 | 3071335 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Historically Fascism was far right because the metric used to measure was flawed.  Then they tried the 'horseshoe' and it was still flawed but slightly better at describing political realities.  Currently we use an ideological grid like this one www.politicalcompass.org to describe political leanings.  This system is far more accurate at describing ideological reletivity than previous metrics.

Far right and far left were used to show the sheeple that we had the best system because it was 'balanced' between the extremes.  The United States of America is, and has been for some time, an increasingly fascist state.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:21 | 3071393 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Correct.

Fascism was originally defined by the Communists (IIRC, 1925 Commintern).  Anything to the right of communism was decried as being "far right".

Typical Leftist hyperbole.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:31 | 3071420 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

if you are talking about the "far right", perhaps

but fascism as a word & concept has older roots

here, the root is Fascio and the early use was more like "League of men"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascio

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:14 | 3073349 smacker
smacker's picture

Fascinating. I've often thought something along those lines myself. Another possible explanation is that the Left were so guilt-ridden by what their German fascist comrades did in WW2 that they became determined to distance themselves from fascism as fast as possible. How better to do this than claim that fascism is on the "far right", thereby absolving themselves from any guilt, and also opening the door to reinventing themselves.....yet again.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:29 | 3071424 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

Fascism is a 1930's nickname for big state socialism.  Fascism was created by Mussolini's use of the ancient fascii to market his new old order of Rome.

Today, many big state socialists proclaim they do "things" for the benefit of the people, or children, or what ever sound bite sounds good.  Sometimes they claim denying physcial objects such as gold or guns will improve your life.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:02 | 3071503 smacker
smacker's picture

Yeah, I came across politicalcompass a few years ago and it's quite good. However, I found some of the criteria they use is slightly off and have moved over to a much more simple one myself:

I simply position people politically on where they sit on a scale between "100% - 0% government". 0% being zero government on the Right with a free market economy, absolute freedom and probably anarchy. 100% being totalitarian on the Left with big govt police states, where you have to sign a form in triplicate to go to the bathroom.

As we are seeing across the US/UK/EU, govts are becoming ever bigger and more totalitarian as each year passes.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:39 | 3071721 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Agreed.

the link was more of an example of the grid concept rather than suggesting their quiz and measurements were right.

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:51 | 3072750 Umh
Umh's picture

I've thought for many years that only big entities ( Megacorporations ) can coexist with big government. Small businesses can't allocate such limited resources as they have to tracking what the government is doing and so for most of them planning is restricted to the owner.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 15:16 | 3071967 proLiberty
proLiberty's picture

The article Positive & Negative Liberties in Three Dimensions (http://www.friesian.com/quiz.htm) is very helpful.

Fascism was the popular name for the National Socialsts in Germany.  Under that system, the farmer owns the cow and if the cow dies, he takes the loss (or maby gets a tax credit), but he is told what kind of feed to use, what market he can take the cow to and how many cous can can run on his land.  But, he owns the cow.  

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:09 | 3071373 autofixer
autofixer's picture

Ummm...that has become the leftist education establishment definition of fascism.  Fascism is in fact a large government that is all controlling.  If you are to the right, libertarian or even anarchist, you are advocating for a small or non-existant state.  A small state cannot become totalitarian, that was the beauty of the American Revolution.  Fascism is private (crony) ownership, under a totalitarian state control.  Do not accept the leftist education establishments definition of the political-economy, they are trying to rewrite history.  Just think of the NAZIs (National Socialists) when considering fascism.  The NAZIs were large state, socialists.  They just believed that the German Volk were superior and their (national) will should be imposed upon the world through socialism.  JMHO

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:49 | 3072504 smacker
smacker's picture

Agreed. A very good summation methinks.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:49 | 3071470 smacker
smacker's picture

"Historically, Fascism is a far-right movement."

Only insofar as the Left describe it. Fascism is a totalitarian system of government whereby every person must obey the state. Just like communism but without the state ownership of production crackpot-ery, although fascism continues to control production. Apart from that, you really couldn't get a fag paper between them; both are at the opposite end to free market capitalism, freedom and individualism.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:02 | 3071504 Seer
Seer's picture

It's ALL -> CENTRALIZED [BIG] POWER <-

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:29 | 3071647 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Historically, Fascism is a far-right movement

Umm, what is it about the name "National Socialism" that you are missing Barack jr? NAZI is a stopping point in the continuum to communism. It is merely who owns the means of production. In NAZI theory, the state partners and guides. In Communism, the government owns it.

FORWARD SOVIET!

 

“Ideas are far more powerful than guns. We don't allow our enemies to have guns, why should we allow them to have ideas?”

 Joseph Stalin

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:00 | 3072547 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Almost correct with your statement of who controls production. But the theory with Communism is that it is the workers (labor) that controls the business, not the managers. Communism was to be a workers paradise in theory. In reality, all workers were forced to join the Communist Party. Thus the party controlled the means of production, not the workers. Therefore in reality, Communism is no different than Fascism. All means of production is controlled by a single hierarchy in a symbiotic relation with government. In Communism, it is the single Communist Party. In Fascism, it is the nexus of elected government officials from two or more political parties bought and paid for by crony capitalists. The result is the same as with a Monarchy or Dictatorship. Totalitarian control by a few with the citizens as serfs.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 07:22 | 3074169 smacker
smacker's picture

@Chuck Walla / SDShack: Thanks. That's spot on. Two of the most thoughtful and well articulated descriptons of how the fascist/commie slimeballs operate that I've read.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:42 | 3071285 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

All "isms" are bad.  Fascism, communism, environmentalism, ...  They are all beliefs and not founded on truths. They demand unquestioning obedience by the "ists" and don't allow debate.

 

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:06 | 3071361 mckee
mckee's picture

j"isms"?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:09 | 3071528 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

that's an "asm"

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:08 | 3071523 JimBowie1958
JimBowie1958's picture

libertarianism, or populism or capitalism or moralism, etc.

'ism' is just a postfix that could mean anything.

The problem i have with 'isms' is that they are generally systems of thought intended to replace actual analysis and thought of specific situations deduced from a prejudged general set of inductive conclusions.

That is fundamentally irrational without a huge data sampling.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:03 | 3072555 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Freedom is not an 'ism'

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:50 | 3071309 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

I was a wacky pack fan in my youngin' days

http://www.wackypackages.org/red_pack.jpg

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:19 | 3071390 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Love me some Wacky Packs... +1

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:00 | 3071342 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Yes and maybe no.  I thought the fascists were less into redistribution. No doubt that mullah is a fascist but I don't think the fascists also wanted to destroy the middle class and upper middle class. 

I think he is also a communist and a fascist plus a kleptocrat.  The best of all worlds.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:05 | 3071513 Seer
Seer's picture

"I thought the fascists were less into redistribution."

Ha ha!

How do you think they obtain the wealth and power?

It's about the elimination of competition (concentrating power in fewer hands).  Of course there's no middle class in that equation!

One day I hope people figure out that the labels are only for distraction and that it really all comes down to BIG = FAIL!

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 18:11 | 3072816 Umh
Umh's picture

Many times it's not a matter of what is intended, but of what is caused.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:03 | 3071354 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

They are both the same type of wolf just wearing different sheeple clothing.  Most of Hitlers brown shirts were excommunists. 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:25 | 3071414 madcows
madcows's picture

Government comes in many forms.  Democracy, Monarchy, Oligarchy and Authoritarian.

Communism, Facism, totalitarianism all fall under the Authoritarian category.  They're just varying states of how much the government controls.

Communism is where the government owns it all and you work for them.  We're not there yet.  This can even come in various forms.  N. Korea is a communist dictatorship.  It's a dictatorship and communist.  You can mix terms and still be correct because the type of power structure is not the same as the form of government.

Facism is Mussolini in WWII.  Kinda like the new Nazi fervor in Greece.

Socialism is where they own most of it.  We're getting close.

Overall, though, we are a Kleptocracy.  Those in power are seeking more power at the expense of those not in power.  Taking from the masses and giving to themselves and their supporters.  It's a Klepto-Republic Authoritarian Police State (CRAPS), folks.

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:09 | 3071532 Seer
Seer's picture

Yup.

I'd say that communism/socialism comes as the result of the kleptocracy over-extending itself.  Folks that are so twisted up in fighting against communism/socialism essentially allow this entire sequence to unfold as they take their eyes off of the kleptocracy.  Proof that one often times becomes what one is fighting against... this should tell you that the BEST "solution" is to be what you want things to be and thereby set the example for others (most, however, spend their energies on trying to change others- and this doesn't ever work).

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:46 | 3071769 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Communism is actually an economic theory, not a political theory.  Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Mao and others felt that the only way to establish communism was through totalitarian authroritarianism.  Marx did, however, envision communism ending up in a pure democratic political form.  Anarcho syndicalism.

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:43 | 3071750 EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

Thank you flakmeister for steering correctly

Fascism is the closest explanation for Il Duce 2's behaviour  

Thomas Sowell explained it best in this article

http://townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/2012/06/12/socialist_or_fascist/page/full/

K

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:03 | 3072557 Straw Dog
Straw Dog's picture

Perhaps Communism and Fascism should be viewed as two sides of the same coin. Both belive in Statism/Central Planning and the results are much the same - a loss of individual freedom and an ecomomy like the former East Germany.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:12 | 3072589 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

If you want a naive discussion of poltical economical systems at a middle school level, then yeah, you could think of it that way...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:33 | 3071249 Rainman
Rainman's picture

spot on....we is all Kenya-esans now.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 00:03 | 3073759 Element
Element's picture

dats raysis

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:37 | 3071265 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

more like a  hybrid of the worst parts of socialism/crony capitalism

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:44 | 3071291 Popo
Popo's picture

As many of the Tylers said repeatedly,  the markets were being artificially stimulated until the election.  When the election was over, the mainstream media tried to blame the sudden swoon on Sandy... but it ain't roket science to figure out what happpened:   The illusion of "recovery" was suddenly not very important...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 18:13 | 3072832 Umh
Umh's picture

Smoke and mirrors can only cover so much shit for a limited period of time.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:22 | 3071401 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

The despondency captured in the business surveys is mostly the result of soreheads due to the election results.  Anything one inch to the left of their political views is fascism or communism.  That is just an emotional response, not clear thinking.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:29 | 3071230 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

When was the last time anything "good" happened?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:38 | 3071267 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Last night, when a pumpkin ale met my taste buds.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:33 | 3071435 Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

Thank You for sharing! - (virtual burp)

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:58 | 3071236 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Selena Gomez & Justin Beaver need to get back together ~ That'll turn things back around again...

~~~

Edit: A junk???... Who could possibly not understand that piece of shrewd logic?... Y'all listen to francis_sawyer... It all went to shit when Beaver & Gomez broke off their 'storybook' romance... Until those two get back into each others loving arms again, it's DOOM & DESPAIR all about the land...

Oh... & until everyone stops blaming Kate Middleton for her nurses suicide ~ the elementary school killings will continue...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:32 | 3071241 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Something bad happened in November...October...September etc....etc....etc.....2012...2011....2010....etc...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:32 | 3071244 imapopulistnow
imapopulistnow's picture

Obama re-elected perhaps?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:34 | 3071438 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

That giant sucking sound is what's left of the USA's capital, and jobs heading

overseeas,Many belived the Kenyan could never be re elected, and were holding

on for at least a competent ass rapist.That dam has now broken, and

we are all downsteam of a man made tsunami.

Find something to grab ahold of,2013 is going to be bad,2014 worse,

and the music then stops at terrible.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:13 | 3071559 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The only people that could not believe he would be re-elected already live in deep denial over so many things that I have lost track...

Did you really think that any of the asshats paraded out by the Repubs could win?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 00:22 | 3073804 Element
Element's picture

You tracked everyones denial?!!

Fuck you're good Flak

 

You're right, you don't have cougar's schtick

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:15 | 3071564 Seer
Seer's picture

When will people understand?: the capital was made up to begin with, it was virtual wealth!

Further, the entire accounting system was/is a sham.  To pretend that something that was fabricated was stolen, well, I think we're deluding ourselves.  We can sit there and pretend that we were "wronged" or we can move on...  Reality doesn't give a fuck what we do.

Growth is finished.  Got plans?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 00:17 | 3073778 Element
Element's picture

So Seer, what you gonna do?

Really think a plan will do it huh?

I'd love to make a big bet that it fails ...

But just keep thinking you have a control choice. I know we chatted about that once and you got all snotty about your choices, but you have no choices - not really.

Sorry. I wish you well, but I think your fucked too.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:35 | 3071251 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Something bad happened around 1980, this is a continuation

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:06 | 3071359 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

Something bad happened around 1912/1913! Undoing all this looks to be painful!

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:23 | 3071408 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Something bad happened on Sept, 17, 1787....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Constitution

 

Something bad happened on Feb. 25, 1791...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Bank_of_the_United_States

 

Something bad happened on Sept. 11, 1794...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whiskey_Rebellion

 

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:37 | 3071260 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Ya but David Tepper and Goldman Sachs are telling everyone to buy stocks now.

I think we've finally arrived at the Santa dumping grounds. Smells bad around here.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:40 | 3071275 csmith
csmith's picture

I have an image of a Formula One driver cutting a tire at high speed. He corrects, over corrects, tries to save it from the over-correction and then hits the trackside barrier at 250KPH.

Good luck Ben.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:47 | 3071305 Seer
Seer's picture

Now add in the fact that on the last lap there is ALWAYS a BIG brick wall across the finish line.  It was all impossible from the very start...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:54 | 3071321 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It was only a flesh wound...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:09 | 3072295 SRVDisciple
SRVDisciple's picture

Rather than an image of a Formula One driver, I'd prefer an image of Danica Patrick. And not hitting a barrier, but wearing a bikini and lying on a Shelby. There. Don't you feel better now?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:44 | 3071290 SRVDisciple
SRVDisciple's picture

Relax people. Don't forget that the world ends in 4 days.

--Here's to hoping that the Mayans were right!--

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:48 | 3071307 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Dammit, I forgot and bought tickets to a game on Jan 1st. I could of used that money for .................. oh....never mind

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:04 | 3071352 Freddie
Freddie's picture

4 days?  Enough time for another manufactured genocidal rampage in a gun free zone by some video game playing kid on meds who has a parent involved in LIBORGate.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:09 | 3071371 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I got my popcorn & BIG GULP... (oh wait!)...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:29 | 3071658 Seer
Seer's picture

Heck, they're so good at it by now they can probably churn one out every day.  Surely this is good for GDP, right? (population reduction, increased funeral income, bolstering the prison complex- what more could someone like Krugman want?)

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:45 | 3071293 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

SPY up 13.  SCOREBOARD!

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:46 | 3071299 Seer
Seer's picture

Transference of debt from the private sector to the public sector continues... Most think that this is some planned action to institute communism (or whatever "it's gonna get me" thing is).  WRONG.  It's the end of growth because we're living on a finite planet and we've been over-mining its resources (resources that kept the growth Ponzi going).  Go ahead, look around you (and also look in the mirror), see all those folks with a sense of entitlement (this applies to people across the board [think corporations too], how would YOU pull the plug without causing massive upheaval?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:16 | 3071388 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

how would YOU pull the plug without causing massive upheaval?

Massive upheaval is baked into the cake. The question is, Do we pull the plug or wait until Reality pulls it for us?  I'm just sayin'.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:33 | 3071685 Seer
Seer's picture

Yes!

TPTB aren't going to pull the plug until they are situated as best then can be (and, really, that's a strategy that most should undertake, exception being that we don't do it based on their say-so).

When one realizes that growth is finished (and that it's no one or any one system's fault, and that the notion that perpetual growth on a finite planet is THE flaw that delivered us here) one can then get down to moving forward; and, there's no need to wait, ever.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:20 | 3071596 BuckShotJones
BuckShotJones's picture

Perhaps someone can educate me. If the Fed is purchasing both MBS and Treasuries and the Fed is a private entity, is not the Fed holding the powder keg? Is not the Fed the new "bad bank"; a bad bank that the government can disolve ( along with a good portion of the government's debt)? If the view that Debt is money is correct, then a new central bank creation can wipe out exisitng debt and created money.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:37 | 3071708 Seer
Seer's picture

I'd hypothesized this scenario quite a long time ago, that the Fed is the ultimate bag-holder and the US govt (the people) will claim that the Fed is a private entity and NOT part of the US govt.  Think about it, everything is brewing to make the Fed out to be the bad-guys; it almost seems to easy...

The Fed et al were really about the growth-paradigm.  Sometimes you just have to hold a mock funeral in order to bury your old baggage.  The future is going to be much different now...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:48 | 3071303 JR
JR's picture

Bernanke is about five zeros over his head. He can no more understand what he’s doing than we can.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:52 | 3071316 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

+100 JR

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:27 | 3072647 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

What you have to understand in all this is that the difference between Bernanke and us is that he originally thought he did understand what he was doing, but we never did understand why he thought it was going to work, and the thing that has changed is that he is now realising that he doesn't understand what he has done. However I doubt that he will ever understand why it did not work. 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:51 | 3071314 gjp
gjp's picture

Don't bother the market with that.  The market doesn't care.  Too busy using Benny Bucks to buy up bargains on zero earnings companies like AMZN and CRM.  The 'economy' doesn't matter.  Just ask Dick Cheney.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:53 | 3071318 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

something bad happened in 1913

it had to do with some kind of bank....

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:57 | 3071331 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The way you can tell that a person is 'safe' to invite to one of your holiday parties isif they use the term 'Bennybux' or 'clownbux'... francis_sawyer is NOT SAFE to invite to any of those things (because I tend to call them what they REALLY are)...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:58 | 3071334 seek
seek's picture

I've seen the same thing as has my brother's business. I think it may be tangentially related to the election, but we both saw a pretty obvious slowdown start in October. It's very reminicent of Q4 2008 (for my biz, I'd say it's about half as bad as '08, for my brother's, as bad or worse.) He's far more consumer-facing that I am, so I'm guessing this means that things are much worse at the street level, which implies holiday sales could be atrocious.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:17 | 3071389 infinity8
infinity8's picture

I do a little dis and a little dat but one of the things I've been doing for the longest (20+ yrs) is design and build custom porfolio books/cases/boxes for a variety of artists/designer/architects, etc. The individuals that I do work for have been keeping me surprisingly busy this fall because they're "hoping" 2013 will be better and want fresh presentation material. NONE of the firms that I do work for are spending any money at all.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 15:45 | 3072129 Debt-Is-Not-Money
Debt-Is-Not-Money's picture

"...holiday sales could be atrocious."

Have you also noticed that none of the market pimps & whores are touting the "Santa Claus Rally" this year?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:59 | 3071336 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

Look,either some white knight comes along and takes all that crap MBS off the FED's books (not happening) or all real estate could magically appreciate in value (it needs to drop by half to interest the overseas buyers,and then in a society with no riots like Greece),or the standard salary of everyone needs to triple in value in order to pay mortgage and start buying iphone crap,get consumerism going again. I feel like the US is one of those wounded zebras being circled by leopards,in one of those wildlife shows from the 60's.Someday soon the kids will be asking why our highly paid (bought?) Congress allowed (enabled?) this scenario to happen. They have printed bucks from here to the moon and it hasn't worked.They have killed around 8k of our lads (and lasses) and millions of brown skinned people for ten years or more.Is Afghanistan or Iraq closer to stability? Our NATO allies bringing their troops home (smart move).Light at the end of tunnel anyone?

  Austerity,you are soaking in it.....

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:41 | 3071737 Seer
Seer's picture

I don't believe that the money printing was undertaken because TPTB wanted to do it.  I believe, instead, that it was, as is always the case, a last ditch effort to buy time before impact.  The growth machine was cranked to max and it was clear that it couldn't be fed enough to keep it going; so... they tweaked other stuff to make the appearance of growth.

I'm not thinking that animals who have overshot their carrying capacity sat around thinking about "austerity."  It's about survival; always was, always will be.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:02 | 3071345 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

If NBER were to come out today and declare that the US is and has been in recession two things would happen

The  MS print Media would put it on page 12 and the MS broadcast Media would sandwich the declaration between a story about a cure for Cancer and the latest news on Justin Bieber. 

There will be no more recessions, is that understood.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:15 | 3071385 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I suspect JPM really died from the whale trade and went on Fed life support just prior to that.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:20 | 3071395 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Can you say Baltic Dry Index? Hello? ....Hello?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:32 | 3071413 helping_friendl...
helping_friendly_book's picture

In response to John 39:

*not really, fascism is when the corporations take over government...  and create a totalitarian state.*

 

I like your definition better. I've been to Communist countries and they have a lot more freedom than I have.

Only two things to remember:

In America you can say what you want and, for the most part, be left alone as long as you don't do anything.

In China you can do anything you want, except drive drunk and kill people, as long as you don't talk about it.

Leaving for the PRC on Friday, plan to have dinner with a Railroad Court official, a fighter pilot and go clubbing w/ a piano teacher.

Should be interesting.

It will be good to get away from this violent, pychotic "holiday"  USA population. If I never hear another Chrismas song it will be to soon. Last weekend in Boston was bad enough. Leonard Cohen did a three set show at the Wang Theater which was fantastic. The rest of the city was puking on their shoes.

I'm out of here bitchz!

I hope I can get ZH in China. I'll be drinking bia jui and eating hot pot all the way through the new year and so happy I won't have to fight with the ugly nasty people in traffic jams to get a parking space so Joe Six Pack and family can get to Charley's for their family reunion or deal with police check points.

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:28 | 3071416 Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

A good start would be arresting some Bankers (viz Iceland).Confidence would be restored to the markets (what's left).

I have a dream where all,repeat all,the economists that spoke or wrote endorsing the present system are paraded on the White House lawn in front of the cameras,their reputations and theories completely discredited.

Also,people in the past have used resignation as a form of protest against policies which they felt were unsound or even criminal.Why doesn't this happen anymore and on the rare occasion that it does occurr,shouldn't the media support their actions,or do they consider it too japanese?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:49 | 3071457 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Decapitation

 

THAT is the art of war. It’s a game of patience, a passive aggressive adolescent game, and the white niggers have been kind enough to build an implicit weapon for the purpose. Only a fool assumes a laborer is a fool, and fool has no idea what a laborer looks like, until he does.

Call me racist, sexist, whatever divide and conquer projectile you want, and then go f- your politically correct self, because this process is going to end in a military maneuver, to eradicate the cancer. It always does, and the politically correct are going to be strapped in a passenger seat or in the fuel mix, and I don’t care which.

Funny, I didn’t care where I slept as a kid, and I had this go-to hole out on Market Street, where the cops were afraid to go. I was the only white kid that walked or rode a bike through that neighborhood, every day. I had my share of run-ins with blacky (as opposed to whitey), so I got to know all those black grandmas pretty damn well, to the point where they invited me in for snacks. The only thing that scares a nigger, of any type, more than a dog, is grandma, because she can make his life a living hell, and he knows it.

And when I wasn’t sleeping there, I was sleeping in a Marine Quonset, in a closet at the Naval Hospital, at one of the shops on 32nd street, or in some ship’s engine room, and guess who was in charge. There is always a bigger, stronger, smarter, kinder black guy, to show another guy the ropes. The upper middle class is like an endangered species in the zoo, holding its nose up on the way into the shop, to be pruned and preened by its handlers, for extinction, through equal protection UNDER the law.

Capital is complacent because synaptic DNA can and is modified in real time, forward for a few, and relatively backward for most, until it’s not, and we have reached that point once again, in this episode, where the majority realizes it has been paid in each other’s credit, by capital, to float downhill into synaptic slow motion, waiting in line to wait in line, for capital credit, which can now only recede into itself. The only real requirement for a small business, which is against the law within the so-imploding empire, is to be honest, because labor is more than capable of doing the work, with or without business. We don’t need a silver bullet, best business practice, or anything else from nonperforming capital.

Capital started sending the middle class in to take our children in the 70s, and that is when the war began. If you don’t see that, you are normalized. Capital builds physical bombs, with our assistance. The middle class builds intellectual bombs, with our assistance, and labor builds spiritual bombs. Funny, how work works. No labor, no work, no DNA. Faith is not a mystery; it’s hard work, that very few are capable of sustaining.

A teacher, with guns, and a mother of an autistic, unsupervised child placed in charge of those guns. Who is responsible? What is the crime? What is the reward, positive feedback signal circuit, ensuring the outcome? More and more of their own, killing more and more of their own. It’s the elevator problem all over again: Why should I fix the circuit when I am becoming wealthier, exponentially faster, relative to the losses nonperforming capital is sustaining?

As we see in San Francisco magazine and elsewhere, the white women are offering up  the Asian/Chinese women, and their brothers, as scapegoats, now that the empire is reaching terminal velocity, along with the usual subjects, Feinstein, Boxer and Pelosi. We are hunting the nasty-a-white, passive aggressive, nigger behind them, pulling the strings. We have no interest in playing stupid games with middle management or their robots in the street; Willie is Willie, another nigger in an expensive suit, God bless his little heart; and the pothead who couldn’t, Jerry Brown is not our man. Who do we have left?

Who hasn’t been suggested as a fall guy? Let’s begin by turning 180 degrees. Funny, how Kissinger’s face keeps popping up, the man with an imperative. Between Kissinger, Netanyahu, and Madoff, the Mad-off was the relatively honest one. San Francisco, like present day Jerusalem, could not be further from Jesus.

Go ahead, tax me, and tell me how monetizing digital dollars coming out of the bazooka is not monetizing a phantom tax base?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:58 | 3071494 stant
stant's picture

dam that was good!!. thought i was reading warren pollock, but hes gone galt already. stant is in the process. godspeed to those who know

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:53 | 3071814 Seer
Seer's picture

"Capital started sending the middle class in to take our children in the 70s"

1971, off the gold standard (US defaulted), peak oil production/export (US turned down the other side of the trade balance ledger).

None of this is complex.  The current is now deep and swift, we KNOW where it's going; we must not be distracted by that which washes down (if you wish to use faith/religion as your guide to help keep from being sucked into the distraction, fine, whatever coping mechanism one needs).

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:46 | 3071462 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

US in recession, get out before everyone realizes it.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:12 | 3071555 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Twice in past two weeks, the Whole Foods in Jericho Long Island(noon on a Saturday,noon on a Sunday-no weather problems) ..............

EMPTY.

 

just my 2 cents

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 15:43 | 3072120 calgal
calgal's picture

.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 15:43 | 3072121 calgal
calgal's picture

whole foods in l.a. GREATLY REDUCED shopping traffic, megastore with multi checkout lines only 4 checkers on at any given time...at least 4-6 checkout lanes closed.

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:33 | 3071681 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

This really makes the point - by juicing the economy, what are these reprobates trying to accomplish?

 

Four more years of rubbish economics?  The entire country knows whats coming.

 

The NYSE and NASDAQ are the ONLY TWO exchanges that haven't topped IN THE WORLD.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-closes-channel-support/

 

The SP500 looks like its ready to go - guess it will be a January collapse now.  Nothing before Christmas.  What a foul horrible mess.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:54 | 3071824 Seer
Seer's picture

"Four more years of rubbish economics? "

Interesting that you map this to Obama's term...

When will you Party Pussies wake up?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:19 | 3073369 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

yes anyone who claims a political party affiliation on ZH should be immediately put to death

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:35 | 3071695 Jake88
Jake88's picture

What is going on is not technically fascism for fascism involves a strong nationalist component. What we have here is better described as global fascism.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:55 | 3071832 Seer
Seer's picture

Plenty of flag-waving going on, though it has started to falter a bit (which should be the warning/clue that more wars are going to be launched).

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 14:59 | 3071869 Richard Whitney
Richard Whitney's picture

Mussolini, the head of the national Fascist Party, was a former member of the Marxist party in Italy, the Socialist Party. He changed not from any fundemental disagreement with Socialism, only with the methods.

Mussolini split with them over participation in WW1, but he did not change philosophy.

Similar to Hitler, the head of the National Socialists of Germany, he rejected the 'internationalism' of Soviet communism for a more nationalistic socialism.

But Socialists they all were. Their values and goals were identical to the 'progressives', an American version of the same thing.

It is a common misperception that this (The Fascist Party) was some far-right party, but their objectives were similar to communism, but with local flavor instead of a global (Soviet, 'der internationale') outlook.

'The commonwealth takes precedence over the individual' was the motto of one of Hitler's chief economists. BTW, he reeived an economics awards in the U.S. in 1938. Good ol' FDR!

Compare his motto with 'you didn't build that', the current U.S. quote, and discuss.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 00:35 | 3073830 Element
Element's picture

 

 

"You didn't build that, small white mice built that" - Slartibartfast

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 15:17 | 3071972 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Deutsche Bank

 

"Ben and the sorcerer's apprentice


 

December 17, 2012

 

At their last meeting for 2012, the Fed and its Chairman were in generous pre-Christmas mood. Bernanke announced further bond purchases – altogether USD 85 bn per month. In addition the Fed promised – with some caveats – not to touch interest rates until the unemployment rate has dropped to 6 1/2%.

After decades of monetary targeting, inflation targeting and inflation expectation targeting we managed to come back to the good old Phillips curve! However, one should not underestimate the risks of Bernanke’s policy. Can we rule out that the natural unemployment rate in the US has not permanently risen during the crisis? This would mean that inflation can start accelerating much earlier and that the Fed might have a hard time to get rid of the spirits that it called. This is admittedly a medium-term problem, but the risk of further bubbles in asset markets is much more imminent. It is pretty amazing that after lots of soul-searching and at least some mea culpa from central bankers following the burst of the mid-2000s bubble, the Fed is doing it again. With the first major central bank taking the unemployment rate into focus, calls in Europe for a similar mandate for the ECB can only grow."

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 15:26 | 3072035 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Two words........ Jeffrey Immelt

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:08 | 3072284 NoTTD
NoTTD's picture

I don't know.  The whole thing reads like it was written by Albert, Eddie.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 00:01 | 3073755 Element
Element's picture

Thank fuck there's only a couple of days left of this shit.

Repent or be spanked bitchez

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