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"Greece Is Not Japan"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"Greece is not Japan" - at least that is the forecast reality when comparing official IMF projections for the two depression-torn countries. Yet one needs to see the projected GDP/debt chart side by side to truly appreciate the humor and lunacy of Greek economic expectations. We give Greece 3-4 years before its ongoing socio-economic collapse, and its relentless plunge in GDP, brings it on par with Japan's basket case economy. End result: both countries will proudly sport debt/GDP in the 250% ballpark by the middle of the decade. But for now, let's pretend that Greece is not Japan.

Source: BBG Brief

 

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Mon, 12/17/2012 - 08:57 | 3070776 GetZeeGold
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Yeah....but Japan is about to become Greece.....and so is the USA.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:03 | 3070783 Landotfree
Landotfree's picture

Japan has benefitted by being connected to the rest of the world and the US to help it sustain itself i.e. demand ... eventually the dead cat bounce will be over in the US and the rest of the world including Japan will continue the slide.  

If Japan were a financial island, it would have fell into the world of chaos 20+ years ago.   

10s of millions of unfunded Japanese willl have to be liquidated.   No way I would want to be on that island.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:03 | 3070789 GetZeeGold
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First they came for the triple A credit rating......and I said nothing.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:31 | 3070834 Terminus C
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... because I was not triple a rated.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 11:16 | 3071051 Hugh_Jorgan
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Japan obviously sports a debt level that would have bankrupted any other country. However, the deeply-rooted Japanese system of honor is not the only thing that has allowed them to "extend and pretend". Japan actually has an economy of substance, unlike Greece who relies on primarily on tourism (like many 2nd world countries). Thus, the biggest difference beween Greece and Japan is the really the important one. Because of this, Japan could cut government and potentially use economic growth to begin to pay their bills. Greece? eh, not so much.

Darn right Greece is not Japan...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 18:22 | 3072868 tooktheredpill
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yeah anyone who looks at debt to gdp only is just another hysterical daily mirror reporter

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:21 | 3070821 Winston of Oceania
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Hopefully they will catch a clue from the Irish and emigrate rather than take the knife for the bankers...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:14 | 3070811 TruthHunter
TruthHunter's picture

How can Greece be compared to Japan when Greece owes the rest of Europe and Japan owes itself?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:21 | 3070818 Stackers
Stackers's picture

They can be compared because they both owe money that can never be paid back. Who they owe it to is secondary

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:33 | 3070837 Landotfree
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There is no way to pay back as you would have to create more debt to pay for the prior.   It's a one way system... debt must continue to go up to fund the interest on the prior debt.   The debt of the system could never be paid back... you either expand and continue to pay the interest or you stop expanding and collapse.   Of course, it is impossible for humans to expand exponentially forever so eventually you have collapse... generally 60-80 years or a generation.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:33 | 3070841 GMadScientist
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Completely disagree; stiffing seniors in your own country will leave you in a better position than stiffing the entire rest of the eurozone and bond vigilantes.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:09 | 3070898 daily bread
daily bread's picture

I'd say its better to stiff "them furriners" than your own relatives.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:16 | 3070916 GMadScientist
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Ethically speaking? Certainly, but this is finance.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:37 | 3070964 Landotfree
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Has nothing to do with "stiffing" anyone.  The system is over.  Virtually everyone is going to get stiffed.  

Masses amount of walking unfunded liabilities are going to have to be liquidated one way or another.  

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:36 | 3070848 Observer
Observer's picture

Japan produces top end cutting edge "stuff" that all of us want while Greece produces feta and halloumi. On top of that Japan is on track to make up for their human shortfall (demographics) with Robots who don't have to be paid and require minimal maintenance

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:50 | 3070869 CrimsonAvenger
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and what happens when the rest of us can't afford that stuff, no matter how much we want it? (Leaving aside the question of whether we're sated on new stuff anyway.) And what happens when their energy costs go through the roof, killing any profits on the sales of said stuff?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:18 | 3070919 GMadScientist
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The Greeks make a lot of ships, but that isn't a good thing when the BDI drops like my prom date's panties.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:00 | 3070884 claude
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YES, JAPAN IS MUCH MORE LIKE THE U.S. IT CAN PRINT TILL IT'S THE ENVIRONMENT THAT FAILS.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:17 | 3070813 JPM Hater001
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Japan is not about to become Greece and neither is America.

We will create a hell wholly new and far more devastating.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:14 | 3070907 Schmuck Raker
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"America, Fuck Yeah!"

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:47 | 3072740 Whiner
Whiner's picture

300 Million guns in America. "Excuse me while I whip this out!" Lotsa posses and militias and maurauders. Lotsa dead people, especially minorities. Those poor New Yorkers. No guns, no Big Gulps. They'll be like the kids at Sandy Hook. God help us.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 08:58 | 3070777 ITrustMyGut
ITrustMyGut's picture

well... ya.. unlike Japan.. Greece can't ctrl-P

so..they are fucked...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:17 | 3070912 unrulian
unrulian's picture

so sre we...just not yet and it will be worse

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 08:58 | 3070779 NewThor
NewThor's picture

"A polished turd is not the same as an unpolished turd."

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:32 | 3070835 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Even lacquer can help reduce the stench for awhile.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 08:59 | 3070781 Quinvarius
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There is only one outcome of central banks and their front organizations propping up sovereign bonds with invented cash.  Hyperinflation.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:06 | 3070794 Landotfree
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I have fixed it for you.

When human attach interest (interest equation) to their medium of exchange the end result of using the equation will be collapse after max potential has been met.

It has nothing to do with central banks, eliminate the CBs and you would still be in this as there are no long-term defeats of the equation, the equation always wins.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:17 | 3071213 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

+1 Landotfree - the root cause has very, very little to do with banking or central banking per se

though they compound the problem (pun weak but intended)

 

fixed it for you too, if you attach the word "fixed" before interest

and you know where you land if you take this step? take a breath. ready?  islamic banking

 

though lending or borrowing at a fixed interest rate and then asking for your pound regardless of what happened aftwerwards was always regarded as sinful

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:05 | 3070792 doomandbloom
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you telling me after i booked my tickets?!

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:05 | 3070797 timbo_em
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Like those PhD economists at the IMF I just flipped a coin and it told me that the IMF is wrong.

Funny though that the IMF wants to eject Argentina for not providing accurate data on growth and inflation.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:12 | 3070807 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Tepper put II on CNBS right now.

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:18 | 3070815 Debtless
Debtless's picture

He's spewing like a moron too.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:26 | 3070822 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Yup. 3% downside. Upside...(pause....wait for effect)...........(pensive look followed by that sneaky smile.....) A LOT.

This guy is freaking nuts.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:28 | 3070829 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Upside...for whom? Certainly not Appaloosa's fleeced clientel.

Remember, this slop-jockey Corzine fluffer gets paid either way.

The most effective method for lying is to tell the complete and utter truth, about something other than the question asked.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:32 | 3070839 fonzannoon
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For whatever it's worth Appaloosa's clientel are apparently up 25% net YTD. I disagree with almost every single thing this guy has said. I would also say he is borderline evil by proclaiming the economy has improved. I'd rather he just say "Hey the economy is shit but the markets are up". But he is making money. Hard to argue with that performance.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:35 | 3070845 GMadScientist
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How were the returns for Bernie's clients? ;)

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:39 | 3070853 fonzannoon
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Listen I can't stand this dude. He is annoying as shit. Tepper ain't running a ponzi though.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:18 | 3070923 GMadScientist
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Association with Corzine gives rise to great suspicion in the minds of wary men.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:14 | 3070810 flyme
flyme's picture

Greece does not have a homogenus population base, they will not accept in the end what the Japanese do. Eventually they will revolt.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:30 | 3070833 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Exactly. Compare and contrast hurling cocktails on fire with dutiful purchases of national bonds, but that's also why Japan going POP will end less badly...they'll punk their own countrymen, but still be able to get back on the treadmill with respect to the developed world afterwards.

 

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:21 | 3070820 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

SELL OFF COMING

 

European Stocks are JUNK

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:27 | 3070826 kralizec
kralizec's picture

My door is not a jar unless it is ajar.

Soon the whole world will be ajar...

(popcorn)

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:35 | 3070836 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Certainly not. Young greeks still want to have sex. And Greece ain't radioactive.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:37 | 3070847 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

a) Bukkake

b) Japan ain't on fire

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 09:39 | 3070852 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Greece got an advantage. At least in Greece society, when there's a problem, they don't shove the problem up their collective ass thinking it will go away like the don't-make-a-wave-or-else-commit-harakiri Japanese culture.

Japan is fucked for one big reason : their uptight culture.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 11:04 | 3071035 GMadScientist
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Sadly, the opinions of the peanut gallery don't hold much sway with those who would be tasked with addressing the problem.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:12 | 3070903 AndrewJackson
AndrewJackson's picture

This completely makes sense. A nation that lives off bailouts every 3 months and has yet to run one year of budget surpluses should totally show decreasing debt/gdp over time.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:56 | 3071017 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

"We give Greece 3-4 years before its ongoing socio-economic collapse, and its relentless plunge in GDP, brings it on par with Japan's basket case economy. "  Glad you agree. The often hoped for collapse and reset never comes.  Simply a slow grind into abject slavery and poverty, only one way out and those roads are being blocked, more so after this week..

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 10:58 | 3071022 InjuredThales
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I can't tell which of those forecasts is a bigger stinking pile of manure: Greece, or Japan?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 11:45 | 3071136 narnia
narnia's picture

Japan has $1.2 trillion of US treasuries. For now, netting of this asset against the debt makes them substantially better off than Greece, who have nothing on the left side of their balance sheet.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 12:04 | 3071185 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Don't you guys get it?

Greeks are the master defaulters of history.  They've done it again.  And they're getting away with it again.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 13:39 | 3071445 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

interest on debt for greece as a % of gdp is lower than the us of a's.... fwiw.

with the 'principal' amount to be rolled over way past my departure from this planet, why should i care about the principal??

 

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