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San Fran Fed Reminds Everyone Why Fed Forecasts Are A Joke

Tyler Durden's picture


Moments ago, the San Fran Fed, best known for spending taxpayer money to conduct such indepth analyses on topics including whether water is wet, and whether the Fed creates bubbles, has just released its most recent 'FedViews' economic outlook in which we read that "we expect growth to steadily accelerate in 2013 as the economy bounces back from harsh weather conditions and as the underlying expansion of consumer spending reemerges. We expect growth to register 1.7% in 2012 and 2.6% in 2013."

This would be great if only a two minute Google search did not expose some of the San Fran Fed's previous attempts at forecasting the future, such as this one from October 14, 2010, in which the crack experts said that "we currently project that real GDP will  expand around 2½% in 2010, below its potential of about 3% annually. We expect the recovery to gain momentum over the course of next year and that real GDP growth for 2011 will reach about 3½%." Final 2011 GDP growth: 2.4%....

.... or this one from June 9, 2011, in which we learned that "growth should rebound in the third quarter. We expect GDP to expand at an annualized 3½% rate in the second half of the year and to continue to strengthen throughout 2012." Final 2012 GDP growth: 1.8%. Or just 50% off. Applying the same undershoot error rate to the Fed's 2013 forecast means that real economic growth next year will be at best 1.3%. And that's with a fresh $1 trillion in monetary injections from the Fed.

Bookmark that estimate.

And these are the people whose forecasts determine how many trillions of liquidity are injected into the economy? Not only that, but it is none other than Janet Yellen, formerly head of the very same San Francisco Fed, who is expected to replace Bernanke when his term runs out in early 2014. With central-planning forecasters like these, who needs capital markets?


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Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:57 | Link to Comment I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Any volume in this algo ramp?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

GDP is a crock of shit number anyway

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

A joke? No, you kidding? Can't be true. A joke predicated on bullshit and fraud.

Say it ain't so, Joe.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment SkottFree
SkottFree's picture

Please hold while I locate those rose colored glasses!

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 20:13 | Link to Comment ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

My predictions have been 100 percent correct.

We will be bled slowly.

The bleeding will continue till the baby boomers die off.

We will not collapse.

Instead, we will hobble through the forest like a gut-shot bear.

There's a good chance for war.

Porno and war are the only industries America has left.


Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

I will go with the Porn,you can keep the War thing.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:26 | Link to Comment Perpetual Burn
Perpetual Burn's picture

The dollar will be destroyed by 2014 !


Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Let's just put Feinstein & Yellen in Alcatraz & call it a day...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

I'll see you and raise you a Nancy.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

I'll call and raise with LIEberman and a McGAIN

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

And DONT foch with me I've got Chuckie Schlimer in the hole

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Give it to him good, to make sure he knows what it feels like to be a typical American rather than a "public servant."

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:36 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Is that the same as all in?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Pasadena Phil
Pasadena Phil's picture

Tyler, Dick "always wrong about everything" Bove resigned today. Just sayin'.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment PUD
PUD's picture


Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Don't worry about Seniors... They're all being programmed to dutifully make their way to the AGENDA 21 carousel...


"I have lived a good life"

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 20:12 | Link to Comment klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

I don't think so!! A lot of seniors I know are collecting and stacking PM, food, ammo and with few years remainig are all in to saving our freedoms. You see, we have very little to lose as we are going to croak away. Good allies to have. Very liberating

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Without optomism, they wouldn't have a job.

Who would hire truth tellers or anything the administration doesn't want to hear?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

I just realize when Limahl wrote his 1985 hit song; "The never-ending story", he was in fact envisoning the "great recession" recovery.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

in othere news TY bonds r trading like they some cliff deal....

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:05 | Link to Comment 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

What are capital markets?

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment F. Bastiat
F. Bastiat's picture

The insults to the terms "faith" and "credit" are becoming quite dangerous, frankly.  What a joke.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

While the SF Fed has been wrong in its econ forecasts, the bears have been even further off of the mark, as they consistently predicted less than 2% growth (usually contraction) year after year.  Its time to discount the gloomers as well as the polyannas.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 21:29 | Link to Comment donsluck
donsluck's picture

Please quote evidence.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Short treasuries bitchez.

Be careful of a nasty bounce though, very much in store if we have another week or weakness. Take advantage of bounce to short.


Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:09 | Link to Comment Dr Paul Krugman
Dr Paul Krugman's picture

If these very same policy makers would understand that what is needed is a change from the flatlined stimulus approach they would get the growth they sought.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

either that or an ALL OUT alien invasion... You know ~ from 'Outer Space' & shit...

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 17:13 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

And the ratket is off and running again on hopeism.

Mon, 12/17/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

well they're paid to bullshit us, don't even listen to what they say it's nonsense !


on the other hand imagine they tell the truth : "we expect 50% unemployement, 75% inflation, depression, muti-trillions budget deficit and that only deep blue could handle the US national debt number"


would be a lot of fun ! :-)

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