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Deja Vu All Over Again

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Across many of the desks we hear from there is a distinct feeling of incredulity at the moves in the last week or two. Bullish or bearish, it seems the velocity and scale of the runaway moves after every utterance from D.C. has wrong-footed many across every asset class. However, one thing remains constant, a very strange case of deja vu all over again with last year's market and macro-economic behavior. The following two charts are showing spooky similarities between this year's 'fiscal cliff' hopes and fears and last year's 'debt ceiling' ecstasy and anxiety. Perhaps it will be useful to all those claiming that the market efficiently predicts a resolution - it might be useful to temper that enthusiasm given the moves we saw last year and the market's clear ignorance.

Heard on CNBC today "no way we get a sell the news event here"... "the market is telling you we get a deal"

US Macro Surprise Index (via Citi) is seemingly tick for tick with last year's...

 

and the market itself seems to oscillate in a very similar greed-and-fear-like manner as noone surely believes we actually go over the cliff... right?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:52 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When the debt ceiling is raised without a limit to spending but a term limit you will see shit done changed.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Will not get worried until ES 1465.  Until then, jingle bells.  

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The battle of inflation vs deflation rages on.  The desperation is on full tilt now:  "chained" CPI, Republicans wanting gun control, and on and on.

The fuckers in DC and NY are all in now.  Boehner is squeling like the pig he is because the GOP doesn't care about raising taxes.  Congressmen have hundreds of millions of dollars invested in RE and stocks and bonds and they have accountants that will find the loopholes so they won't pay taxes.

All it is now is to squeeze out the boomers that "saved" their whole lives in 401ks and bought houses only to watch their assets flatline while their pay did too and inflation kept grinding higher like a stripper on a pole.

Now these boomers have cashed out of their 401ks to pay down their debt and are relying on SS to fund their lifestyles.  Their kids live at home and play video games all day because their job as a barista only affords them enough money to go out to the bar once a week.

The American Experiment is over.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:04 | Link to Comment ChubbNut
ChubbNut's picture

So many baristas!

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

cashing out of IRAs? been there -doing that

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 20:29 | Link to Comment WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Deflation is a myth processed tobacco 1947-1970 inflation 1.7%. From 1970 until now 7.3%. In 2012 4%, since 2009 30% up. Tobacco price was going downbetween 1866 qnd 1896. That is deflation. Deflation is a mytg today.

 

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment TheGermanGuy
TheGermanGuy's picture

Time for some puts?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment TheAlchemist
TheAlchemist's picture

But the holiday colors make this poison pill all the easier to swallow, right?  RIGHT?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

Haven't I seen this article somewhere before?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Groundhog Day!!

 

Over and over again.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

tepper told me to buy though

 

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Read the fine print... He wants you to buy [his portfolio] which you can later redeem in joobux...

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Yeah, or something else might happen.  We're following a script here, folks, and none of us know what it is.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:00 | Link to Comment A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

This is how a cartel operates.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Speaking of the cliff, Greece is getting a lot better.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Not so much...

http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/1/58734

Just over one in four people aged between 15 and 74 are now unemployed, according to jobless data released on Thursday.   The unemployment rate crossed the 25 percent threshold in August, to reach 25.4 percent, according to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (Elstat).
Tue, 12/18/2012 - 20:24 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Like most government agencies around the world, they are lying. It's much worse.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:53 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Love the holiday green and red charts.  Collapse never felt so festive, warm and cozy.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:54 | Link to Comment casaananda
casaananda's picture

Fuck them all.Horrible to see to dollar selling off and gold down hard, too. Will us hard money advocates ever be heroes we believe we are, given what's going on?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment reload
reload's picture

WTF is happening to Gold?

It has felt like a smack was comining for the last few days, most welcome for those of us who do not own as much as we intend to. None the less, WTF ! a big move down.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment TheAlchemist
TheAlchemist's picture

At what point will gold finally break from moving in-line with the stock market and actually get priced with inflation?

I'd love to buy more, but in seeing the charts above, and knowing what it means if it holds true, prices will stoop lower again when they should really be moving upward.

I guess it's just being concernd about picking that right point at which to pull the trigger.  Yes, I know the long-term goal should be the focus, but we all know the "buy low" mantra always holds true.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:30 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

like the good Dr Engali I am waiting for a good beat down in commodities ($900 gold) before I start buying

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:06 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Don't hold your breath whilst waiting.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:08 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

$900 seems a bit low, Otto.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:42 | Link to Comment nobusiness
nobusiness's picture

The Gold Rush guys must have hit the mother load!  Season finale coming

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:58 | Link to Comment David99
David99's picture

ZH is only doing good job and reporting correctly. Tyler is a real true person though I have never met him. FED+BOE+ECB+BOJ are the biggest manipulators and JPM +GS +20PD's act on their behalf in this Ponzi Casino. It is all rigged Ponzi Casino. JPM & GS do maximum manipulations from London as no regulators are looking what is going on daily. London is the best place to manipulate Ponzi Casino as no regulators as they are watching porno. Manipulations of highest order without any regulations as every one has been purchased and regulators watching porno. In last 10 trading days, Rio Tinto manipulated by +25% gain and regulators watching porno. JPM doing it. It is just Casino and nothing else. Regulators are watching porno, don't know how Rio Tinto is manipulating daily. On LSE, there is no checks and balances and maximum manipulations daily by Rio Tinto. The market is Casino and the biggest manipulated stock is Rio Tinto and JPM is pulling up daily and no regulations for Rio Tinto in London

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

wild guess...you're short Rio Tinto?

 

What the fuck are you doing trading?  Haven't you been paying attention here Dave?  Come on man, do yourself a favor and get out, buy some silver and have a drink. 

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:11 | Link to Comment mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

he has posted the same shit on every article

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:10 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

He does not seem pleased about Rio Tinto...

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:38 | Link to Comment darteaus
darteaus's picture

===============================================

  FLASH!    FLASH!    FLASH!    FLASH!    FLASH!    FLASH!

========================================================

TO:  ATTNY GNRL HOLDER

RGRDNG:  TRUTH ALERT

ACTION RECMMDED:  1) WEBSITE SUSPENSION;

                             2) DRONE ANTIPERESONNEL INTERVENTION

TIME:  IMMEDIATE

 

=====================================================

END FLASH!    END FLASH!    END FLASH!    END FLASH!    END FLASH!

=====================================================

 

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 16:38 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

rio tinto plc. [vis-s-vis, *rio tinto limited ** vis-a-vis, rio tinto group] is owned by the rothschild's... as they also own de beer's for jew`elry !

where does the world buy its uranium from? the rothschild's!

speaking of jp morgan chase-- check out roderick i. eddington-- abdallah bin abd al aziz al saud [you'll find bin laden in this mess?]

http://www.muckety.com/Rio-Tinto-plc/5001613.muckety

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rothschild_family

http://www.muckety.com/JPMorgan-Chase-Bank-N-A/5001047.muckety

http://www.muckety.com/Roderick-I-Eddington/1420.muckety

http://www.muckety.com/Abdallah-Bin-Abd-Al-Aziz-Al-Saud/142335.muckety

there's your answer... 

Ps. just link up with interactive map

 

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment fatsak
fatsak's picture

Soros, Goldman are going to make a lot of money when we go over the fiscal cliff.  In Obama's interest to go over right now .   Hedgies all in for year end markup and then poof.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Euro Monster
Euro Monster's picture

Got your sledges, bitchez?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:03 | Link to Comment StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

Greed is good.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

O/T?  S&P raises Greece's credit rating 6 notches WTF is going on today?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

It would seem S&P owed some favors...

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:08 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Debt ceiling was the threat of the utter and instantaneous annihilation of the entire world financial system overnight, if it had not been avoided.

Fiscal cliff is, by comparison, just some bitching about tax rates (which will go up) and spending (which will not go down).

The ONLY thing I have seen that actually scares the markets into a serious correction since 2007 is a credible thread of the utter and instantaneous annihilation of their existence.  Nothing else scares them.  Therefore, the fiscal cliff negotiations do not scare them, regardless of the outcome (including going directly over the cliff).

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:05 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Deja Vu all over again? The past four years have seemed like a never ending episode of Groundhog Day with jus a little twist......Greece..debt ceiling.....Greece...qe2........elections....Greece..que3......Spain.....Greece Fiscal cliff..... Now the S&P just upgrades Greece's debt to stabel...WTF?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Doc- when you're tired of pissing into the wind, waiting for sanity to return, I just want you to know I have some extra government-issued crazy pills I'd be happy to share. 

I've been taking them for a few weeks now and I feel SOOOOO much better!  Sure, it's a temproary reprieve, but what isn't these days?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:00 | Link to Comment Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Stay away from the gun cabinet.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:09 | Link to Comment mktsrmanipulated
mktsrmanipulated's picture

gonna have jessie ventura look into if the fed secretly backs a hedge fund and algo to manipulate the mkt higher

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:12 | Link to Comment Telemakhos
Telemakhos's picture

noone surely believes we actually go over the cliff... right?

Well… maybe someone in each party figured out that spending cuts, including defense, were politically impossible but mathematically necessary, at least as a first step towards fiscal sanity.  Maybe they felt that tax increases were desirable as well but impossible to pass.  Maybe the fiscal cliff was the plan all along—not the worst-case failsafe option, but the package of spending cuts and tax increases that would actually do something to the math and that could never be passed by a hopelessly dysfunctional Congress, all dressed up as a failsafe option.  After the lack of a budget prior to the debt ceiling crisis, which triggered arrangements that set up the fiscal cliff scenario, someone might have felt that an end-run around normal revenue/appropriations gridlock was necessary.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:13 | Link to Comment Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

As far as the S&P/Greece rating goes, I guess if everyone is drowning the best one in the pool is the one with bubbles still coming out their nose.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

The dreaded melt up continues. They did not allow an angry Boehner today. He looked more like a  happy Boehner.  A Mr. Happy, if you will. Wait, but Mr. Happy is a ... At any rate, Mr. Happy rises. You get the picture.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:48 | Link to Comment Aegelis
Aegelis's picture

Pure coincidence, just like the rest of human history ;-)

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:49 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

The Algos are set to repeat the playlist. Been that way ever since Obama took office. The PDs made up the playlist so they can profit off it.

In April we'll find out Greece is no longer fixed, but it wil be fixed again in May, but June will find the fix didn't take.

We haven't had a budget for over four years, so the 2008 budget is still in effect with standard 20% yearly increases across the board.

Bernanke keeps recycling the same operations every six months.

It only looks like insanity to those who live outside the system. The North Koreans think they live in the greatest country in the world. The banksters think they are actually doing us all a favor.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:11 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

More like being the only normal person in a hospital for the criminaly insane.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment Herdee
Herdee's picture

American politicians are too goddamn stupid to understand one thing.They've been conned and outplayed at their old game.It's called long term economic warfare.Believe it,Iran and all the other big crooks around the globe including China know one thing,the good ol' U.S.A. is essentially bust.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 15:40 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Copper and aud down on risk on? The aud is down against all but the yen cross... Big covering in eur/aud and gbp/aud...

 Aussie bond yields are flat to slightly down as well...

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 18:01 | Link to Comment s n p
s n p's picture

however superimposing any two similar chart patterns over each other without regard to time of year makes the argument completely useless.  the 2012 data is from late spring thru fall and the 2011 from late winter thru summer.  the lines look nice, but it means nothing with regard to similarity.  is macro surpirse something i can make on the stove top?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 18:26 | Link to Comment one_fell_swoop
one_fell_swoop's picture

OVERLAY TWO CHARTS.  IMPLY OUTCOME.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!