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NAHB Builder Sentiment Soars To Highest Since 2006 Thanks To Sandy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We don't often comment on the idiocy of the self-reported and almost entirely reinforcing homebuilder survey but today's print had some under the surface ridiculousness that we felt needed sharing. The NorthEast saw the biggest jump since January after flat-lining for six months. We can only assume that the dismal reality of what Sandy left behind has encouraged all those displaced New Jerseyites to rush out to buy another home. Other regions were either lower or a small positive. Residential Contruction jobs continue to drop, entirely ignoring the NAHB's hope.

 

It seems the 'prospective sales traffic' that the homebuilders are seeing just isnt becoming actual home sales...

 

Regions and the remarkable NorthEast recovery...

 

but nothing says housing recovery like an ongoing slump in construction jobs...

 

Charts:Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:31 | 3074692 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Tyler, you missed yesterday's announcement.

Homes rebuilt from Sandy destruction are going to be classified as new construction for all stats.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:35 | 3074697 Looney
Looney's picture

Builders Sentiment? Awww... Those Sentimental Builders... How about the Used Tampon Recyclers' Sentiment? ;-)

Looney

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:31 | 3074694 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Did they rebuild with savings or credit (implicitly backstopped by the taxpayer of course), did everyone suddenly get a raise? -  FAIL

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:34 | 3074699 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

I know some people there doing construction.  It's all insurance flow.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:44 | 3074727 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Ahh yes, insolvent insurance companies, backed by insolvent banks, all who will be bailed out by Uncle Sugar.  Where oh were have we seen this before.  Good call, time to place some bets on the next AIG.  I know some people there too, it isn't all insurance flow.  Some do have savings, might as well rebuild, use the 2012 tax deductions on the loss (thank you Uncle sugar) and invest savings into something real.  I mean, no sense holding the cash with the 85 billion per month in direct devaluation and ZIRP.  Makes sense.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:58 | 3074783 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

Didn't you hear, we the people made a profit off of the AIG bailout

 

giggle...snort...guffaw

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 12:05 | 3074817 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Indeed, when do I get to use mark to fantasy accounting too?  

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:35 | 3074706 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

SANTA RALLY TIME!

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:37 | 3074710 chancee
chancee's picture

And anyone thought there would be anything but a massive short squeeze in the week before Christmas?  Prepare for a 'sudden realization' after Christmas that the Homebuilders and Financials aren't the place to be.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:38 | 3074711 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Krugman tweet in 3...2...1...

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:40 | 3074716 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

building (and rebuilding) houses on sandbars is a krugmanian wet dream

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:38 | 3074712 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

 

 

 

Why wait on Mother Nature, let's get some Cat D-9s and start bulldozing US homes from sea to shining sea.

 

Just not mine...

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:44 | 3074730 unrulian
unrulian's picture

aren't they started with an explosive charge?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:39 | 3074714 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Uncle Sugar is giving away $60 billion for Sandy housing reconstruction. Half of that will go to the traditional graft and corruption line item. The remainder will be wasted. 

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:41 | 3074717 Kilgore Trout
Kilgore Trout's picture

Can I get some of them broken windows in my neighborhood?

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:45 | 3074733 unrulian
unrulian's picture

wait for it....wait for it......

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:42 | 3074723 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nevermind 0% GDP and fiscal cliff, we got HOPE out there! Yipee.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:43 | 3074725 Racer
Racer's picture

Hmm, let me see, which is probably more of a reflection of reality, less real jobs or sentiment?

Decisions, decisions... very difficult to judge....

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:44 | 3074731 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

We (real taxpayers) are so fucked.

 

ES ramping as the full retard train just pulled into the station.  Un...fucking...real

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 11:45 | 3074734 Squid Vicious
Squid Vicious's picture

remind me to buy some homebuilder stocks 5 minutes before the next "survey" comes out

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 12:58 | 3075056 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I'd be curious to hear how insurance companies are dealing with claims due to Sandy. Immediately after the storm there was a lot of blather about the event not being covered by ins...

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 12:59 | 3075060 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Great, destruction is good, global warming (if you believe it) bullish for homebuilders.

Now go break some windows and spread some termites.

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 13:46 | 3075196 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Our economy is based on fixing broken windows ?  Without government interference .... the private insurance industry .... would encourage people to vacate flood and storm risk areas .... leaving those areas to people who could pay the freight !  The free market works .... every time we have the courage and the wisdom to let it be !   I'm tired of subsidizing welfare niggers who don't have enough sense to move to high ground .... like Terre Haute !     "Welfare Nigger" is a poetice artifice Monedas uses to express his contempt for ALL losers who live off the sweat of others .... can't we all just get along .... yeah, take your boot off my neck .... that would be a "step" in the right direction ! 

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 14:07 | 3075285 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Cheese was invented when some brat spilt milk in the refrigerator and it settled all winter in the back crevices of the lower shelves !   Why doesn't some one take out those kids in a school shooting ?      Monedas    1929     Comedy Jihad World Tour

Tue, 12/18/2012 - 16:27 | 3075878 whoopsing
whoopsing's picture

I do not know why these guys are getting all uppity, From where I am, confusion reigns as to how people are going to rebuild, insurance does not seem to be covering all the costs. New reg's are going to force people to build on stilts (huge costs) , new environmental rules...on and on. The only impact I see will be downward, yes, the ones who have savings and are willing to spend them are moving along very slowly, the rest are languishing with no end in sight or questions answered. In short, an epic clusterfuck

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