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It Really Is Different (Again) This Time

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Despite the seemingly generational destruction to household and bank balance sheets and an entirely unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy reponse, investors would never know it given the market's reactions from the 2009 lows relative to its rally from the 2003 lows. Different this time? hhmmm... Worried about gold prices falling also? Doesn't look like we learned anything from the 'Debt Ceiling' debate either...

 

S&P 500 - 2003-low rally vs 2009-low rally; unbelievable!

What is most shocking is the cataclysmic drop we suffered did nothing to quell the status quo's belief that one more bubble will do it and save us all... This rally off the 2009 lows feels excessive (and is given the real backdrop) but is in reality not so different from the Greenspan-to-Bernanke handoff bubble that led to this idiocy...

Can we really kick the can one more year? Last time it was mega-securitization technical pressure that sustained credit support for equities with that last lurch higher - with yields already at record lows, leverage creeping up and spreads not pricing in any credit cycle, we suspect this time might just be different for the nominal value of the S&P 500...

(h/t Brad Wishak At NewEdge)


Gold - Debt Ceiling vs Fiscal Cliff

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 


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Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

This time when the price of paper gold falls there won't be any physical to be had at that price. Gold will have broken it's grip over paper.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:51 | Link to Comment Max in St Moritz
Max in St Moritz's picture

 

 

The debt ceiling has been raised over 100 times since 1940.  

23 times during the 1980's when "Reaganomics" was all the rage.  

Bush raised the debt ceiling 3 times in his first three years in office, and several more times afterwards. 

 

No one ever said a word about it. 

 

<ENTER THE BLACK MAN INTO THE WHITE HOUSE>

I WANT MY COUNTRY BACK!!!!

Now, suddenly, Obama tries to raise the debt ceiling after the worst financial crisis and recession since the Great Depression, and 50% of US citizens would rather default on our debt than raise the limit.  

LOL!!

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals/

Table 7.3

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

Wouldn't this chart imply we have 1 more year of "Euphoria" to go?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

true story, if you line two charts up and they kinda match, then you have gold.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:06 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

Ok you have 2 years b4 the end of the world - GO!

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 23:02 | Link to Comment Esso
Esso's picture

2 years, 2 days, what's the difference?

On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

So you're saying its rayciss.

Could it be this guy is incompetent ,and the debt level is so much higher now ?

Not rayciss.

Simpler,as simple as you really.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

1. Load your gun

2. Put it in your mouth and suck

3. Pray to your god/donkey

4. Pull the trigger

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:37 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

Hmmm. . .   Have any oral fixations lately?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:20 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a Sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. ...Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that 'the buck stops here'. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and Grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."

SENATOR BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA, MARCH 2006

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:28 | Link to Comment AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

Yeah, the libtards always seem to forget little facts like that. I watched the bum take a run at guns today, but a dumbass reporter asked him a softball question about the fiscal cliff. He said "our plan is balanced by anyone's definition" SAY WHAT? A trillion in new taxes and about $4 billion in spending cuts - not balanced by anyones definition.

We are so forked

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 00:23 | Link to Comment SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

St. Ronnie Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 TIMES!   And he gave all the illegals AMNESTY TOO!  I'll bet you wern't BITCH'N about that, then.....were you.?

Thought not.  So take your outrage and get lost.

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 00:35 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

"St. Ronnie Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 TIMES! And he gave all the illegals AMNESTY TOO! "

I was unaware that we had a monarchy...again.

Last I heard...St. Obama wanted (as part of the "fiscal cliff" deal) to take the power of the purse from Congress with an unlimited debt ceiling for the Presidency ie. the Executive.

Care to splain your slander?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 05:04 | Link to Comment MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

You're incredibly confused.  Even if there was no debt ceiling, Congress STILL appropriates funds.  You can set the debt ceiling at infinity squared and Congress still needs to approve spending.  The debt ceiling is raised to pay liabilities incurred in connection with spending ALREADY approved by Congress and spending that can ONLY be approved by Congress in the future. 

That said, I do believe the debt ceiling should be used to extract concrete spending concessions, even though it's a douchebag move that makes the U.S. look like a banana republic due to resultant brinksmanship. 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:59 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

I'll assume you're talking to the one above me.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:49 | Link to Comment MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Correct

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 23:04 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

He's not trying to raise the debt celing because of the recession, this is over and above the recession bailout monies.  This is new debt, to be borrowed and paid for by future generations.  And besides, the WH already told us the recession was officially over in 2009.  All he's doing is just increasing Govt spending while taxing everyone but his buddies and putting us in further debt.  Directly or indirectly everyone will pay more taxes.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 01:29 | Link to Comment Doña K
Doña K's picture

You are right Max!

But, the problem now is that the debt curve has turned into the hockey stick shape in which point servicing of the debt, despite the near zero interest rates, becomes unbearable shaping the curve into a hyperbole and the lights will be out soon.  

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 02:01 | Link to Comment Lord Of Finance
Lord Of Finance's picture

To MA(R)X in St Moritz:

 

   C'mon Michael. You are not fooling anyone. We know who and what you are. Your documentary films are finally even now being seen as the total hackmanship pieces of shit film making, even by most liberal film critics, they really are. You, along with all other liberals have been repeatedly exposed as the no good do-gooder hypocrite pieces of trogoladyte excrement that you are. You were always the hero of the stupid and, to put more Twainly, the hero of both the UN and Mis-informed.

      You are really better off just tweeting off to Ed Shultz and those other two angry MSNBC boys, Lawrence ODonnel and Rachel Maddow. You will truely be in your element there. But honestly Mr Moore, to us Z-hedgers, you are just an obese imbecile who has not worn out his welcome simply because complete dipshits, such as yourself, were never welcome.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:32 | Link to Comment SheepleLOVEched...
SheepleLOVEcheddarbaybiscuits's picture

look at debt/gdp fucktard

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Watauga
Watauga's picture

Thanks.  Now, if you are done licking your messiah's boots, maybe you'll have a chance to use your brain instead of your tongue.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:45 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

Please read aloud to yourself:

I am we Todd it.

Sofa King we Todd it.

 

You can't fix stupid, Max.  And, you are stupid.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:21 | Link to Comment AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

What is that gold chart supposed to be showing?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:32 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When stocks were collapsing in 2009 gold was too and you could pick up physical at the spot price. That won't be the case this time because there won't be any physical to be had.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 23:20 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

When the debt crisis causes the currency to collapse along with the stock market, there won't a safe place for all those paper holders to put their money except hard assets.  That's when incredible amounts of wealth is transfered overnight.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 02:58 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

There will be a deflationary collapse and hard assets will plummet - although better to have an asset worth 10 cents on the dollar than a dollar worth 0 cents on the dollar.

 

Gold and silver will blast off though because they will be the only true safe havens

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 02:57 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Also this time there will be no bail outs....  so anyone with half a brain will know that massive defaults are certain...  and they will flood (or attempt) to flood into the ONLY remaining safe havens - Gold and Silver.

And instead of getting caught in the deflationary vortex, gold and silver will skyrocket in price

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 04:59 | Link to Comment Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

When? I already have all the Au (and Ag) I'll ever have. Everything I have (or ever will have) is tied up in it.

So, when will it actually be worth more than I paid for it? Or even as much?

I don't have two years. I may have two months. No, not even that long: I will have to sell some of my Ag (probably at least 40 or 50 ounces) just to get through January. As things now stand, I will be selling it at a big loss.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 00:08 | Link to Comment vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

careful how you predict the ponzi. there have been too many charts posted that turned out to be completely wrong.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Hell, I can't undesrtand any of this anymore.  I'm going to watch the swimsuit competition on Miss Univesre Pageant instead.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:30 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

Wait, a graph yesterday had the S&P falling off the cliff, now it's about to skyrocket for another few months. Clarification?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Can't have a dump, without a pump....

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:57 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

Maybe 'Bad Idea T-Shirts' should use that, since I see that ad almost every day here now, hah!

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:31 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

1 moar year...whew

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment Global Punter
Global Punter's picture

are you saying the Spoos will top up at 1700 in Jun13?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:48 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

spoos are priced in joobux & redeemed in joobux... PHYZZ is priced in joobux &, depending on the holder, will eventually be redeemed in [insert aftermath of economic destruction wealth retention algo HERE]...

~~~

Hell ~ I could be wrong, but that's how I see it at this stage in the game...

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

Jelly at the Old Testament Knooledge?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:37 | Link to Comment steveo77
steveo77's picture

I bought the Royal Canadian 1 ounce bars today, with serial numbers, not that there is anything wrong with that, $22 over melt. At LCPM on my blog, they give me 4 silver rounds a month for pimping them out, I like that.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:38 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

the laws of nature or sum'thin 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Co176zfUykE

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:40 | Link to Comment steveo77
steveo77's picture

I prefer the hard wealth rather than the electronic wealth. 
 
 
Everything hit my target boxes today. I made the largest purchase of PM ever for me. I expect support will remain support until proven otherwise. 
 
Eyes Open No Fear 
 
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2012/12/does-it-make-sense-to-short- end-of-world.html

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:44 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Gundlach broke my heart last night. cash and bonds next year. then the market drops and u buy stocks. i expected a lot more from him.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:50 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

Take another listen.  Keep in mind who he was interviewing with, and read between the lines.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:54 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Ok will do

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 21:52 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

i notice the gold comparison time period wasn't 1971-1980 v 2003-2012. funny that

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:10 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

just my two cents, I had spotted this a few weeks ago, amature that i am timing off as usual. The SPX pattern is identical and also when you think of Gold and USD and TSY AND XAG all trading in the same direction.. something big is on the way.

 

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oRTqRTsf8PA/UMfAnP34GvI/AAAAAAAAAEA/bvSGVGkuVI...

 

My most recent discovery is that the Gold Silver Ratio is an EXACT match to the DXY .. If you overlay Gold DXY, regardless of the talking heads on CNBC there is very little correlation... XAG, slighly more so but the GSR/DXY is a clone. it really examplifies gold and silver as currencies and highlights how the real threat is silver rather than gold.

May help to make sense of why assets are priced as they are.. Silver in particular.

I think we are very close to a shoot out..

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:04 | Link to Comment Lost in the ether
Lost in the ether's picture

Yahoo has had the comex glod price available for about a year. (GCZ12.CMX)

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GCZ12.CMX+Interactive#symbol=gcz12.cm...

Why does it look like the blade on a buck saw. Are the trades really that large to trigger 6% shifts in price?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:08 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

This kind of thing is happening more and more often.. Just call it a "glitch" and walk the other way...

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:05 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

The NWO owns the market. They are going to do what they want with it this time. It is just a graph of how much money they want to put on their books.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:06 | Link to Comment scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I like the 13 year cycle myself  especially post Nixon's gold deal...

 

http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/

 

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

So these charts interpret that Gold goes a little further down while the Dollar rallies?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:19 | Link to Comment ramacers
ramacers's picture

can't wait to see my neighbor in loin cloth draggin' a club. it's comin' baby.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Catullus
Catullus's picture

So there's 15-20% to go in the S&P? Party on Wayne.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 23:30 | Link to Comment NoControl
NoControl's picture

SWEET!!!!   WE'S GOIN' TO 1500!!!!!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 00:58 | Link to Comment Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

the charts are bullshit - you can overlay any two charts, slide the years around until you get a reasonably close match, and then that proves nothing.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 05:33 | Link to Comment MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

It's amazing what you can show by altering scales. While I like this site the misleading overlayed charts wreck its credibility as this article points out.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1072191-are-you-really-a-chart-expert

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 06:07 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Government can spin all they want.

 

But each quarter, earnings reports are issued.

 

SP500 did yet another reversal yesterday - let's see if it follows through.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-daily-falls-shows-bearish-reversal/

 

In the end, one thing is certain.  Jan 15 will roll around soon.  Q2 and Q3 were exercises in accounting - boost earnings by firing and boost revenue by channel stuffing. 

 

Q4 is going to be interesting.

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 06:13 | Link to Comment MeanReversion
MeanReversion's picture

Smalls caps and emerging markets still outperformed which means the uptrend still holds. Bond yields didn't maintain their initial strength out of the gate, which is also still bullish. If these things reverse course then my view will change. Headlines may be turning sentiment.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 07:53 | Link to Comment Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

As if fedgov has any option but to screw its creditors (and consign itself to the fiscal dustbin of history). Die, fucker. Die.

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