It Really Is Different (Again) This Time

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite the seemingly generational destruction to household and bank balance sheets and an entirely unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy reponse, investors would never know it given the market's reactions from the 2009 lows relative to its rally from the 2003 lows. Different this time? hhmmm... Worried about gold prices falling also? Doesn't look like we learned anything from the 'Debt Ceiling' debate either...


S&P 500 - 2003-low rally vs 2009-low rally; unbelievable!

What is most shocking is the cataclysmic drop we suffered did nothing to quell the status quo's belief that one more bubble will do it and save us all... This rally off the 2009 lows feels excessive (and is given the real backdrop) but is in reality not so different from the Greenspan-to-Bernanke handoff bubble that led to this idiocy...

Can we really kick the can one more year? Last time it was mega-securitization technical pressure that sustained credit support for equities with that last lurch higher - with yields already at record lows, leverage creeping up and spreads not pricing in any credit cycle, we suspect this time might just be different for the nominal value of the S&P 500...

(h/t Brad Wishak At NewEdge)

Gold - Debt Ceiling vs Fiscal Cliff


Charts: Bloomberg

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Dr. Engali's picture

This time when the price of paper gold falls there won't be any physical to be had at that price. Gold will have broken it's grip over paper.

Max in St Moritz's picture



The debt ceiling has been raised over 100 times since 1940.  

23 times during the 1980's when "Reaganomics" was all the rage.  

Bush raised the debt ceiling 3 times in his first three years in office, and several more times afterwards. 


No one ever said a word about it. 




Now, suddenly, Obama tries to raise the debt ceiling after the worst financial crisis and recession since the Great Depression, and 50% of US citizens would rather default on our debt than raise the limit.  


Table 7.3

Sylvia Plath's picture

Wouldn't this chart imply we have 1 more year of "Euphoria" to go?

Muppet of the Universe's picture

true story, if you line two charts up and they kinda match, then you have gold.

Muppet of the Universe's picture

Ok you have 2 years b4 the end of the world - GO!

Esso's picture

2 years, 2 days, what's the difference?

On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

Winston Churchill's picture

So you're saying its rayciss.

Could it be this guy is incompetent ,and the debt level is so much higher now ?

Not rayciss.

Simpler,as simple as you really.

Tommy Gunner's picture

1. Load your gun

2. Put it in your mouth and suck

3. Pray to your god/donkey

4. Pull the trigger

Watauga's picture

Hmmm. . .   Have any oral fixations lately?

icanhasbailout's picture

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a Sign that the US Government cannot pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. ...Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that 'the buck stops here'. Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and Grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better."


AllWorkedUp's picture

Yeah, the libtards always seem to forget little facts like that. I watched the bum take a run at guns today, but a dumbass reporter asked him a softball question about the fiscal cliff. He said "our plan is balanced by anyone's definition" SAY WHAT? A trillion in new taxes and about $4 billion in spending cuts - not balanced by anyones definition.

We are so forked


SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

St. Ronnie Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 TIMES!   And he gave all the illegals AMNESTY TOO!  I'll bet you wern't BITCH'N about that, then.....were you.?

Thought not.  So take your outrage and get lost.


nmewn's picture

"St. Ronnie Reagan raised the debt ceiling 18 TIMES! And he gave all the illegals AMNESTY TOO! "

I was unaware that we had a monarchy...again.

Last I heard...St. Obama wanted (as part of the "fiscal cliff" deal) to take the power of the purse from Congress with an unlimited debt ceiling for the Presidency ie. the Executive.

Care to splain your slander?

MeanReversion's picture

You're incredibly confused.  Even if there was no debt ceiling, Congress STILL appropriates funds.  You can set the debt ceiling at infinity squared and Congress still needs to approve spending.  The debt ceiling is raised to pay liabilities incurred in connection with spending ALREADY approved by Congress and spending that can ONLY be approved by Congress in the future. 

That said, I do believe the debt ceiling should be used to extract concrete spending concessions, even though it's a douchebag move that makes the U.S. look like a banana republic due to resultant brinksmanship. 

nmewn's picture

I'll assume you're talking to the one above me.

Harbanger's picture

He's not trying to raise the debt celing because of the recession, this is over and above the recession bailout monies.  This is new debt, to be borrowed and paid for by future generations.  And besides, the WH already told us the recession was officially over in 2009.  All he's doing is just increasing Govt spending while taxing everyone but his buddies and putting us in further debt.  Directly or indirectly everyone will pay more taxes.

Doña K's picture

You are right Max!

But, the problem now is that the debt curve has turned into the hockey stick shape in which point servicing of the debt, despite the near zero interest rates, becomes unbearable shaping the curve into a hyperbole and the lights will be out soon.  

Lord Of Finance's picture

To MA(R)X in St Moritz:


   C'mon Michael. You are not fooling anyone. We know who and what you are. Your documentary films are finally even now being seen as the total hackmanship pieces of shit film making, even by most liberal film critics, they really are. You, along with all other liberals have been repeatedly exposed as the no good do-gooder hypocrite pieces of trogoladyte excrement that you are. You were always the hero of the stupid and, to put more Twainly, the hero of both the UN and Mis-informed.

      You are really better off just tweeting off to Ed Shultz and those other two angry MSNBC boys, Lawrence ODonnel and Rachel Maddow. You will truely be in your element there. But honestly Mr Moore, to us Z-hedgers, you are just an obese imbecile who has not worn out his welcome simply because complete dipshits, such as yourself, were never welcome.

Watauga's picture

Thanks.  Now, if you are done licking your messiah's boots, maybe you'll have a chance to use your brain instead of your tongue.

madcows's picture

Please read aloud to yourself:

I am we Todd it.

Sofa King we Todd it.


You can't fix stupid, Max.  And, you are stupid.

AllWorkedUp's picture

What is that gold chart supposed to be showing?

Dr. Engali's picture

When stocks were collapsing in 2009 gold was too and you could pick up physical at the spot price. That won't be the case this time because there won't be any physical to be had.

Harbanger's picture

When the debt crisis causes the currency to collapse along with the stock market, there won't a safe place for all those paper holders to put their money except hard assets.  That's when incredible amounts of wealth is transfered overnight.

Tommy Gunner's picture

There will be a deflationary collapse and hard assets will plummet - although better to have an asset worth 10 cents on the dollar than a dollar worth 0 cents on the dollar.


Gold and silver will blast off though because they will be the only true safe havens

Tommy Gunner's picture

Also this time there will be no bail outs....  so anyone with half a brain will know that massive defaults are certain...  and they will flood (or attempt) to flood into the ONLY remaining safe havens - Gold and Silver.

And instead of getting caught in the deflationary vortex, gold and silver will skyrocket in price

Jungle Jim's picture

When? I already have all the Au (and Ag) I'll ever have. Everything I have (or ever will have) is tied up in it.

So, when will it actually be worth more than I paid for it? Or even as much?

I don't have two years. I may have two months. No, not even that long: I will have to sell some of my Ag (probably at least 40 or 50 ounces) just to get through January. As things now stand, I will be selling it at a big loss.

vast-dom's picture

careful how you predict the ponzi. there have been too many charts posted that turned out to be completely wrong.

Hubbs's picture

Hell, I can't undesrtand any of this anymore.  I'm going to watch the swimsuit competition on Miss Univesre Pageant instead.

ACP's picture

Wait, a graph yesterday had the S&P falling off the cliff, now it's about to skyrocket for another few months. Clarification?

UP Forester's picture

Can't have a dump, without a pump....

ACP's picture

Maybe 'Bad Idea T-Shirts' should use that, since I see that ad almost every day here now, hah!

max2205's picture

1 moar year...whew

Global Punter's picture

are you saying the Spoos will top up at 1700 in Jun13?

francis_sawyer's picture

spoos are priced in joobux & redeemed in joobux... PHYZZ is priced in joobux &, depending on the holder, will eventually be redeemed in [insert aftermath of economic destruction wealth retention algo HERE]...


Hell ~ I could be wrong, but that's how I see it at this stage in the game...

Muppet of the Universe's picture

Jelly at the Old Testament Knooledge?

steveo77's picture

I bought the Royal Canadian 1 ounce bars today, with serial numbers, not that there is anything wrong with that, $22 over melt. At LCPM on my blog, they give me 4 silver rounds a month for pimping them out, I like that.

steveo77's picture

I prefer the hard wealth rather than the electronic wealth. 
Everything hit my target boxes today. I made the largest purchase of PM ever for me. I expect support will remain support until proven otherwise. 
Eyes Open No Fear end-of-world.html

fonzannoon's picture

Gundlach broke my heart last night. cash and bonds next year. then the market drops and u buy stocks. i expected a lot more from him.

sitenine's picture

Take another listen.  Keep in mind who he was interviewing with, and read between the lines.

buzzsaw99's picture

i notice the gold comparison time period wasn't 1971-1980 v 2003-2012. funny that

VonManstein's picture

just my two cents, I had spotted this a few weeks ago, amature that i am timing off as usual. The SPX pattern is identical and also when you think of Gold and USD and TSY AND XAG all trading in the same direction.. something big is on the way.


My most recent discovery is that the Gold Silver Ratio is an EXACT match to the DXY .. If you overlay Gold DXY, regardless of the talking heads on CNBC there is very little correlation... XAG, slighly more so but the GSR/DXY is a clone. it really examplifies gold and silver as currencies and highlights how the real threat is silver rather than gold.

May help to make sense of why assets are priced as they are.. Silver in particular.

I think we are very close to a shoot out..

Lost in the ether's picture

Yahoo has had the comex glod price available for about a year. (GCZ12.CMX)

Why does it look like the blade on a buck saw. Are the trades really that large to trigger 6% shifts in price?

VonManstein's picture

This kind of thing is happening more and more often.. Just call it a "glitch" and walk the other way...

q99x2's picture

The NWO owns the market. They are going to do what they want with it this time. It is just a graph of how much money they want to put on their books.

scatterbrains's picture

I like the 13 year cycle myself  especially post Nixon's gold deal...


ABG LINE's picture

So these charts interpret that Gold goes a little further down while the Dollar rallies?