Is The Santa-Claus Rally For Non-Residents Only?

Tyler Durden's picture

The last 10 days have seen some remarkable moves across asset classes. None less so than the US equity markets where despite weak macro developments, AAPL's collapse, and the overhang of Fiscal Cliff uncertainty, stocks have gone from strength to strength on the back of the ubiquitous (and apparently oh so easy to trade) Santa Claus rally. However, a scratch below the surface, as indicated in these 3 charts, suggests that perhaps the US trading public is not allowed to participate - as the great majority of the gains have occurred only when the rest of the world is playing (and the worst performance is when only US residents are active).

S&P 500 Futures performance for the last 10 days:

US Open to EU Close (1 Down, 6 Up, 3 Flat)


EU Close to US Close (2 Down, 3 Up, 5 Flat)


US Close to US Open (0 Down, 4 Up, 6 Flat)


It would appear that the EU Close to US Close period is the least profitable for bulls and the US Open to EU Close is the most profitable.


Charts: Bloomberg

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The trend is your friend's picture

Is it too late to take the blue pill?

The trend is your friend's picture

i just want to stick my head back in the Sand and pretend this is really not happening

scatterbrains's picture

Gold is sniffing a dollar ramp fest on deck...  or at least is not buying into this temporary dollar suppression scheme... at least relative to other currencies.

dracos_ghost's picture

Given that the US markets are just compliance douche bags for  Eurpean markets, makes sense.

otto skorzeny's picture

I see the push back to $90 WTI  is back-can't allow it to touch the $70s

ekm's picture

US Primary Dealers have bought the bulk and have left some crums from the rest of the world to lick from the floor.

Soon, they will run out of crums.

devo's picture

Someone needs to get to the bottom of the FED's "other" category--is it Vegas hookers or every share of SPY?

Squid Vicious's picture

Dear Santa: I don't believe in you but if you ARE real please give us a kick-save at 1,440.


Ben Shalom

SheepDog-One's picture

The 'U.S. trading public'....who is that a couple robots on Wall St?

optimator's picture

Don't forget those politicos and Banksters with inside info.

asteroids's picture

Assholes ramp the market before the open so every day it's "green". This in theory makes you feel good as you drink your morning coffee on your way to your job. It's not surprising that he market goes to almost neutral at the open. Sigh.