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Sentiment: Deja Cliff

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Blah blah Fiscal Cliff blah. Blah blah blahdy blah Cliff. Cliff blah blah republicans blah democrats blah blah blah blah. Blah blah blah blah, blah blah, blah blah blah blah blah, blah blah, Cliff. Blah blah blah blah, blah blahdy blah.... Blah.

Meanwhile in Europe: The only data point confirms what everyone knows - reality sucks, hope surges. As usual.

German Ifo business confidence rises to 102.4 from 101.4, on expected rise of 102. Why the rise? Because forward expectations spike from 96.4 to 97.9. As for the "current assessment"? Why down of course from 108.1 to 107.1, on expectations of 108.0. Apparently in the long run everyone will either be dead, or live in an economic utopia. Just don't opt for the Buddhist route.

More on this from Vampire Squid:

The Ifo index increased for the second time as corporates become more optimistic about the medium-term outlook. The assessment of the current conditions has weakened at the same time. Together with the flash PMIs, the December Ifo is consistent with our view that German GDP will decline moderately in Q4 before we see a stabilisation at the beginning of the year and a further, modest acceleration during the course of the year.

The Ifo index rose further in December to a level of 102.4 after 101.4 in November and 100.0 in October. Business expectations rose to 97.9 after 95.2 (their highest reading since May), while business conditions erased the improvement seen in November, sliding back to their October reading (107.1 after 108.1).

Looking at the different sectors, business confidence improved in the manufacturing and construction sector, but declined in the wholesale and retail sector.

A less cynical recap of events from DB's Jim Reid:

With only six more sleeps until Christmas, markets continue to be in a festive mood helped by increasing optimism of a last-minute deal coming together in Washington. Briefly recapping the price action yesterday, equities finished strongly (S&P500 up 1.15%), credit gapped tighter (Xover-16bps) and US treasury yields continued to sell off with the 10yr UST yield adding 5bp to close at 1.81%, and threatening to break through the
1.60% to 1.80% trading range that has held since August. The optimism seems is adding pressure to the precious metals complex - gold lost $27/oz yesterday to close at its lowest level since the 30th August ($1671/oz).

With cliff negotiations progressing at a faster pace in recent days, Boehner surprised yesterday by revealing a “Plan B” bill which he described as a “back up” in case negotiations with the White House fail. The “Plan B” bill is based on Boehner’s offer from last Friday involving higher taxes on those earning more than $1m/year and spending cuts of $1 trillion. Overnight, US House Majority Leader Eric Cantor said he expects the House to vote on the bill as early as Thursday this week and he added that there will be sufficient Republican votes in the House to pass it (Reuters). However Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was quick to dismiss the action, telling reporters that “Plan B” will “not pass the Senate”.

For the time being, markets are seemingly ignoring Boehner’s “Plan B” as more of a tactical manoeuvre, perhaps seeing it as a way for Republicans to pass blame on the Democrats if the bill fails to pass the Senate. Indeed, overnight markets are trading stronger, helped by the strong leadin from the US. Gains are being led by the Hang Seng (+0.73%), KOSPI (+0.51%) and Nifty (0.50%). The Nikkei is outperforming again (+1.78%) and is trading above the 10000 level for the first time since early April 2011 driven by news that the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito have agreed to pass a supplementary budget of JPY10trn ($119bn). There was also better than expected Japanese trade data (exports -4.1%yoy vs -5.5% expected) which is supporting sentiment. The USDJPY continues to grind higher against the dollar, trading at 20-month highs of 84.30. Meanwhile, JGB yields are selling off for the fifth straight session after hitting record lows in early December. The 10yr JGB yield is up 2bp as we type to trade at 0.780% ahead of the BoJ meeting tomorrow.

Given the focus on the fiscal cliff, Europe has been comparatively quiet with a distinct lack of negative newsflow in recent sessions.

There was positive news in Greece after S&P upgraded their rating to B- from ‘Selective Default’ overnight following the completion of the country’s buyback which helped drive the EURUSD to a 0.50% gain to its highest level since April 2012. Greece’s rating is now higher than the CCC rating it had prior to the buyback, partly reflecting S&P’s view that the troika’s recent loan relief measures are “indicative of (the Eurozone’s) determination to restore stability to Greek finances, and to preserve Greece’s Eurozone membership”. There were some mixed headlines out of Italy with the PdL threatening to delay the passage of the budget through the Senate and potentially the timing of next year’s budget, saying that the party needs “all the time necessary to examine the budget” (Bloomberg Finance LP).

Turning to the day ahead, the main data releases include the German IFO, Italian industrial orders and US housing starts and permits. In the UK, the BoE will release the minutes from its last MPC meeting.

 

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Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:08 | 3077926 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Go long Rio de Janeiro

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:15 | 3077935 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Draw play up the middle.....sooner or later it's gotta work.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:21 | 3077943 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

It's all Bullshit!  Nikkei up over 200,  Europe markets all green today, our futures are up.....blah blah blah is correct.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:25 | 3077953 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Oh you're just begging for Bank of America to ban your sorry ass.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:34 | 3077972 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Can I have a slice of that cliff?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:38 | 3077983 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Sure thing......all you had to do was ask.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 09:33 | 3078097 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's green thanks to Obama, all the rest is still the last presidents fault... Bush...no... Obama... no Bush....
shit... that excuses doesn't fly anymore....

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:09 | 3077928 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Mortgage applications down 12%.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:12 | 3077930 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Only good thing I see is more scale-in opportunity with silver.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:14 | 3077933 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

blah, blah, blah, has to be the most concise reporting thus far and expresses my exact sentiments.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:19 | 3077942 malikai
malikai's picture

Yea, I was thinking the same.

Pretty much sums up the whole thing.

Could have ended there and I'd be fine.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:49 | 3078000 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I fruther that !

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:13 | 3077934 David99
David99's picture

Don't buy any stock at these high levels as Casino will crash any time. FED is the biggest criminal on this planet.ZH is only doing good job and reporting correctly. Tyler is a real true person though I have never met him. FED+BOE+ECB+BOJ are the biggest manipulators and JPM +GS +20PD's act on their behalf in this Ponzi Casino. It is all rigged Ponzi Casino. JPM & GS do maximum manipulations from London as no regulators are looking what is going on daily. London is the best place to manipulate Ponzi Casino as no regulators as they are watching porno. Manipulations of highest order without any regulations as every one has been purchased and regulators watching porno. In last 10 trading days, Rio Tinto manipulated by +25% gain and regulators watching porno. JPM doing it. It is just Casino and nothing else. Regulators are watching porno, don't know how Rio Tinto is manipulating daily. On LSE, there is no checks and balances and maximum manipulations daily by Rio Tinto. The market is Casino and the biggest manipulated stock is Rio Tinto and JPM is pulling up daily and no regulations for Rio Tinto in London

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:28 | 3077949 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Shamless repeat post .... improve your English writing original posts !  ATTE:  Monedian English Institute .... We feature the Larry Pratt method of reducing Piers Morgan to histerical verbal menopause !

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:38 | 3077978 negative rates
negative rates's picture

But they like it, must be Mikey at it again.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:43 | 3077995 Monedas
Monedas's picture

It's a universal post format .... quite clever .... it works in at least half the daily threads here .... the foreign "accent" is a nice, disarming touch !

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:53 | 3078005 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Judging from the dialect.....I'd have to say that village idiot is from somewhere near Cornwall.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 09:50 | 3078143 Diplodicus Rex
Diplodicus Rex's picture

When I click on David's name all I get is:

 

Access denied

You are not authorized to access this page.

 

Why is that? Anyone know? Anyone else getting that?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 13:10 | 3079119 Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

That is odd, its the same message I get when I try to access any of the Tylers pages.

Tyler(s) are you stirring the pot? LOL

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:26 | 3077954 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

"There was positive news in Greece after S&P upgraded their rating to B- from ‘Selective Default’"

S&P says it's safe to get back in the water.

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:35 | 3077973 coulous
coulous's picture

blah blah blah blah blhy bly bly buy buy BUY BUY BUY  BYE BYE

 

 

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 08:40 | 3077985 Monedas
Monedas's picture

How dare you trivialize this serious discussion with your silly word play .... may I use it as my own .... in the future ?

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 09:33 | 3078103 Debt-Penitent
Debt-Penitent's picture

blah blah blah blah blhy bly bly buy buy BUY BUY BUY  BYE BYE...ha sucker.

 

There.

 

Never has the phrase been more true.  "You snooze, you loose, sheep"

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 10:19 | 3078267 ZFiNX
ZFiNX's picture

Load da boat IMO

Wed, 12/19/2012 - 10:26 | 3078325 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

The thing most don't realize about the fiscal sham is Boehner has 2 fights at the same time.  He can negotiate all he wants with Obummer but whatever deal he strikes will still have to pass the house.  Cutting many out of the process is not the way to build support.  So not only does any compromise not change the trajectory of debt but it likely increases the rift between establishment Republicans and those who really want fiscal responsibility vs just talking about it. I still say they should vote present and let Obamma take the country into recession all by himself.

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