There Will Be Offerless Crude Markets

Tyler Durden's picture

Meanwhile in the always efficient crude oil markets... another asset class joins the inverse-Baumgartner crowd... Daniel Day-Lewis would be proud of this gusher...

WTI Jan13s

WTI Mar13s

 

Chart: Bloomberg

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slaughterer's picture

Any "logical" explanation for this spike? Crude inventories actually beat consensus.  WTi should be down a little.  

LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, I too often wonder what the price is for something I have but won't sell.  Interesting times.  You are correct, excess reserves and fewer buyers should mean a lower price in a real market that allows for true price discovery.  Let's be opptumistic, the price jumped, there must have been a buyer.  Remind me, what entity is the largest consumer of crude on the planet again?

forwardho's picture

Yes, I too often wonder what the price is for something I have but won't sell.

A very pretty twist of phrase.

Bravo!

malikai's picture

WTI model is pooched but Brent explains it all. Full closure.

http://blog.quantsig.net/2012/12/19/brent-closure/

TruthInSunshine's picture

The paper fiat printers at the Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE & PBOC will drink all of the peoples' milkshakes, bitchez.

Keep printing thusly with thrustly, fractional reserve fiat alchemists. I'm sure the inflation that you're so desperately seeking will spur "animal spirits."

Thomas's picture

this is what happens when the economy and markets become untethered to fundamentals and everything just becomes money movements. It is metastable.

strannick's picture

Yeah, Crude's a little tougher than gold/silver for Blythe and Jamie to bludgeon into submission in illiquid not-for-profit trades. And when you have nincompoops like Bart Chilton, Jill Sommers, Scott OMalia at the CFTC winking at it all, it makes it all the easier.

ToNYC's picture

Priceless is the word.

 

I too often wonder what the price is for something I have but won't sell.

 

AmCockerSpaniel's picture

How about those GOLD coins you have?

Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Nonsense. I lost them in a boating accident.

vast-dom's picture

Popeye aka DDLewis chews spinach and scenery in b-movies while z-grade markets float. Where's that bad atonal soundtrack with all of this?

Smiddywesson's picture

Fundamentals matter, they just don't matter all the time to those with the volume to move the price.

Great liquidity, low commissions, no uptick rules, no transparency, no law enforcement, and a world full of derivatives with enough leverage to wag the dog, means there's price discovery, but only after they Boyz get what they want.

Rainman's picture

Let's hear a round of applause for CFMA 2000....the gift that silently keeps on screwing the muppets.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/03/08/953945/-Wall-Street-Deregulation-and-the-Price-of-Gas

Quinvarius's picture

This is why:

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/11/01/lacker-fomc-actions-designed-in-part-to-depreciate-dollar/

Turn off CNBC.  It is not possible to have deflation in this monetary system.  Printing to avoid debt default and juice the economy= inflation.  Debt default = hyperinflation.

 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct, but I always try to look and see if someone also took delivery in cases such as this.  The only thing that keeps a fiat or faith-based monetary system in check is real consequences for bad behavior.  We haven't had that for quite some time now.

Quinvarius's picture

This is true.  But I think there is also the idea of what the paper markets are used for.  There is a price at which no one will hedge because it locks in a loss.  Beyond this point is where excessive shorting of futures by central planners begins to destroy production.  You can see the effects of intervention in an advanced state with the PM miners.  They are dying from it.

Popo's picture

No.  Debt default absolutely does not equal hyperinflation.

LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!!!  You need to go speak to people who have survived the collapse of a currency.  Better still, tell me, what will the price be for something of real value that I possess but won't sell.  Pull your head out of your ass and go talk to those who lived through the collapse of the soviet union.  That is as close as it gets since most of the people from the weimar republic are now dead.

economics9698's picture

Popo, when producers are put out of business by economic collapse, deflation if you will, there is less supply of goods and services.

Meanwhile the central bank is in panic mode pumping out money to government to spend, to banks trying to re-inflate the bubble, and who know where?

Supply and demand.

Less real production, more money, inflation.

AGuy's picture

"Debt default absolutely does not equal hyperinflation."

If the US Federal Gov't defaults, the value of the dollar goes to Zero. Money printing delays the crisis but does not prevent it.

CPL's picture

Something happened.  

 

A physical something, a salt dome collapsed on an unnamed large resevoir of Oil that has ruined the "soup" with sodium and cannot ever be drawn or refined again.  Not posting anything until MSM confesses on the accident.  If it's as bad as I've been reading in engineering RFI's, gas should be 400 a barrel pretty soon.

fuu's picture

Is that one by the Gulf?

Miss Expectations's picture

Bayou Corne, La

The collapsing area, filled with salt water and hydrocarbons with traces of hydrogen sulfide and radioactivity, once hidden by swamp oaks and other sub-tropical flora, can now be viewed from Hwy. 70, as this author observed and reported from the area in November.

The center of the Napoleonville Salt Dome is south of La. 70 and east of Grand Bayou, the collapsing slurry area, the "sinkhole," and Bayou Corne.

Grand Bayou and Bayou Corne communities are both on top of the dome that stores pressurized oil- and gas-related chemicals.

Read more:

La. salt dome collapse 'sinkhole' lake might be 30 football fields large

http://www.examiner.com/article/la-salt-dome-collapse-sinkhole-lake-migh...

CPL's picture

When you suck the oil out of a big hole in the ground, the liquid disappears and will form a salt dome eventually.  With a very thin, thin crust of sand, clay and salt, very thin.  Slightest tremor, from whatever, can cause them to rip open and swallow whatever is sitting on them whole.  They are usually pretty thin and can be hundreds of meters deep.

 

 

 

Matt's picture

I think that dome was solid originally, then they (the corporation) mined the brine for the last few decades, resulting in the hollow dome that has collapsed.

CPL's picture

Eventually the vaccum in the dome cracks and it all goes under.  Lightbulbs do it.  Balloons do it.  Giant hollow caverns the size of mexico do it with cities, military and people on top of them.

hannah's picture

i thought there was only butane and propane at bayou corne...? didnt think they stored crude...?

CPL's picture

No they use the salt domes to store nuclear waste now.  There used to be oil 90 years ago.  Most of DC is sitting on an old oil well or poorly documented coal mine or fifty.  Entire tristate area is built on top of the past energy concerns of the US.

 

I'm often surprised that it's isn't being fracked, it was a good energy resource at one time.

hannah's picture

the nuclear waste they 'store' isnt from reactors. it is material used by drilling companies.

CPL's picture

Dunno, it's how Canada stores ours.  There are places around Quebec city in QC you never want to buy a house near, around or by.  

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Nice "tristate area" quip, CPL.  I live not far from Newtown Creek.  I believe that's a clay dome, and there are still a handful of refineries and pump terminals sitting by the side of the terrible waters.  Lukoil has a big facility, and it's relatively new.

hannah's picture

CPL...i call bullshit. canada does not store reactor waste in salt caverns like those at bayou corne. no one does. you lack even a rudementary understanding of the physics of spent fuel......what is the name of this canadian salt cavern watse facility where they just pump nuc waste into an open cavern like corne...?

CPL's picture

Not saying anything until someone in the media brings it to public forum, until then the engineers need room to breathe and figure out options hence the RFI's.  Nothing worse that trying to fix something with 7 billion people looking over your shoulder wondering if the lights are going to go back on.

fuu's picture

It's been a very slow developing story over at ENENEWS for months now.

CPL's picture

Well, considering that nobody seems particularly concerned with allowing markets to react to any of the news but just not offering it.  What should get people moving away from the LA sinkhole collapse is the Hydrogen Sulfide.  Which is as about as healthy as living next to an open uranium mining operation and anyone with a tap has been drinking it in the 500 mile radius around it since it's had enough time to travel through the water systems in the region.

 

That's "good" drinking and completely unalterable.  Even with reverse osmosis it alters the Ph of the water enough that it stays still water, aka poison.  Means any stockpiled water in underground fortresses going through an inventory rotation is poison waiting to be drunk in an emergency situation and from that point forward.

 

Hydrogen Sulfide is used in geological time to mark extinction events incidentally.  Once discovered on a geological time table the clock counts down 15 years and a geologist can reasonably assume that everything in the area died until mother nature pushed the tectonic plates around enough to erase and bury the problem under millenia of dust and rock compressed over time.  

 

http://www.ehow.com/how_5958411_remove-hydrogen-sulfide.html

 

That's just for drinking water, it's incredibly complex for something as simple as getting a glass of water that won't fill a body with tumours from toes to tits...doesn't help plants, animals, local wildlife, industry or farming practices.

knukles's picture

Dooes that mean it won't be able to testify at the congressional hearings?

ParkAveFlasher's picture

Does this mean Ann Margaret isn't coming?

CPL's picture

Not unless it's in Arabic

LongSoupLine's picture

Maybe it's as simple as someone realizing how many GM Volts were really sold...

ZeroAvatar's picture

Somebody got news WWIII is ready for ignition, so they're doing the usual frontrunning. Nothing to see here.

 

Most any day now.

sessinpo's picture

Perhaps you should not spend such time on a short term spike (unless you are a DAY TRADER in commodities), and focus on the longer trend.

I ask you and others as I have asked many times in different forms: With all the massive printing, with all the various monetary easing programs, with all the hidden monetary projects withing various departments, why isn't oil much higher? Why isn't gold much higher. Why isn't the dollar gone already? Gold should be over $3k by now. Oil should be over $200/barrel. But it isn't. The market is telling you something and very few are listening. The message between the lines.

buzzsaw99's picture

the gold to oil ratio will be restored one way or another bitchez

ShrNfr's picture

Inventories decrease 964K barrels, the expectation was for a decrease of 1.75 MM barrels. Makes sense (not).

 

DoE crude oil implied demand rose to 15.4M barrels per day from last week's figure of 15.2M.

ekm's picture

What have I been telling you?

 

It's an insect trap. The traders got sucked in, now they can't get out. They are forced to buy.

 

They take advantage of useless news hoping that they could lure suckers.

GMadScientist's picture

Somebody fire a missile in the Hormuz?!

Anne Ominous's picture

I can see the straw in the milkshake...

francis_sawyer's picture

I'd chalk that move up to some 'market moving' TD Ameritrade daytraders who are applying their 'pattern recognition' software to their skillset...

Orwell was right's picture

I traded the break up on WTI...not because it made any fundamental sense, but because the lemmings were going that way.    I have almost given up on trying to follow the non-logic and just trade the charts, scalping my $$$ and then getting some caffiene.