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The Complete Politicization Of The Fed

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Authored by Knukles,

There have been very few times where in my 40+ years of capital markets participation that I’ve strongly believed that we have witnessed a significant, material, public but seemingly under-discussed, under appreciated watershed event that will over the next several years, impact capital markets in a profound manner.  The recent announcement by the FED that they were to pursue the future course of monetary policy with direct regard to a specific, numerical level of unemployment in my mind, represents exactly one of those rare events.

 

In the past, the Federal Reserve has managed monetary policy with respect to what is generally referred to as a “dual” mandate which however, is actually three as proscribed by the Federal Reserve Act (“Act”).  Specifically, they are; “maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.”  In the past, the projections of, the targeting, adherence to and most importantly linkages between the current as well as forecasted and actual resultant levels of monetary accommodation and three mandates were left to the FED’s Board of Governors’ Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to decide.  Whether by qualitative or quantitative tools or reference, the process was generally accepted as an art form manageable within human discretionary bounds, never linked directly to fixed quantitative mandated economic targets.  Indeed, indicia of monetary policy whether the overall general level of interest rates, a specific rate such as the Federal Funds target or Discount rate or monetary aggregates such as the targeting of the monetary base, adjusted reserves or money stock measures have been actively and intensively utilized in the past.

 

But not “hard” broad economic data such as employment, unemployment, consumption, savings, gross domestic product or net domestic investment.  The closest the FED has come of recent vintage was the formal adoption of a 2% Personal Consumption Expenditures rate said to be consistent with statutory mandates in its meeting in January, 2012.  And with respect thereto, the linkage between Open Market Operations in terms of frequency and magnitude again remained the discretionary province of the FOMC via the Open Markets Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York with respect to the purchase and sale of financial instruments.

 

However, on December 12, 2012, the Federal Reserve announced that it would continue to proactively pursue a highly expansive monetary policy by keeping short-term interest rates as evidenced by the targeted Federal Funds Rate between 0.25% and 0%, until the civilian unemployment rate dropped to 6.5%.  This is the first time in the post war period that there has been a direct linkage between a stance of monetary policy, translating through a market based rate, effecting supposed economic activity through a tremendously complex channel of bank and shadow banking, domestic and foreign relationships with borrowers and a single defacto measure of economic activity, in this case human resource utilization as measured by unemployment.  While admiringly noble, of a broad laudable, socially responsible nature, politically correct, seemingly with caring intent and closely adhering to the employment mandate as established by the Act, the goal opposite Federal Reserve Policy is amorphous not only due to the complexities and unmanageability of second, third and however many ongoing orders of direct and casual relationships, but it is politically game-able.  Indeed, another triumph of form over substance wherein appearances of a literally wondrous intent might soothe the fevered brows of the public but remain entirely within the manipulative province of the data managers.

 

The reason is that the entire relationship is dependent upon the single targeted number.  That of “unemployment”, a largely undefined term with respect to the FED’s December 12th minutes.  Within that preview, it would not be illogical to assume that the rate of unemployment cited by the FED is the one and same “unemployment rate” as calculated by the US Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Without risking sounding in any way shape or form as negative or impertinent, leave it be merely pointed out that a large and growing number of observers have of late, questioned the periodic revisions, seasonal adjustments, and benchmark revisions to the unemployment rate in large part but not exclusively due to the composition of the American workforce and participants therein as defined by factors such as those employed, those looking for employment, those not looking and the workforce participation rate.  Further, many of the same observers suspect or believe that periodic adjustment to such numbers may be socially and or politically motivated thereby resulting in data not as reflective of actual market conditions as represented.

 

Now, for sake of intellectual stimulation alone, if one were to assume such to be the case, then one might easily conclude that politically-motivated manipulation of the unemployment rate calculation might cause the number to drop toward a more socially acceptable level, but remain above the Fed’s threshold of  6.5%, which could result in a more expansive monetary policy than otherwise might be reasonable not withstanding current Quantitative Easing effects.  After all, incumbents seem to have historically preferred to face the electorate with easier money and low interest rates accompanied by happy employment statistics, no?

 

Indeed, while the optics of the recent decision to accept an active target of the unemployment rate might be well meant, socially responsible and politically correct, the dependency upon the single datum construct already of a highly controversial nature may well likely reduce further the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s monetary efforts, thereby leading to slower economic growth, hiring and economic well being as adverse unintended consequences.

 


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Thu, 12/20/2012 - 16:55 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Dogs & Tails... (& a bunch of wagging)

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

Is that a t-shirt or real boobs on that chick?

I need to know so I can "tweak" my insane economic models. 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:20 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

There is no way she's going to let you tweak her models. Flowers and chocolates first, only then to the tweaking.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:19 | Link to Comment ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

Good citizens of Metropolis!

Where is Paul Volker when you need him?

Please shine the bat-light.

Get Commisioner Gordon on the phone.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2012/12/yesterday-i-hiked-ten-miles-through_20.html

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:00 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

The Fed had credibility?  When exactly was that?  You can't "lose" what you never HAD.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 16:56 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The FED was ALWAYS 'the politics' all along! 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 16:58 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I can't wait to see Knukles tear this guy apart.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:21 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

I see what you did there.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:00 | Link to Comment JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Politicization Of The Fed??

Criminalization would be more accurate

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:02 | Link to Comment Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

There are no "water shed" events regarding the fed.  They were set up in December, 1913 as a private entity with the sole purpose of extracting as much wealth from the populace as possible.  Their methodology changes from time to time but the objective of this private cartel are unwavering!

Tuco

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment alangreedspank
alangreedspank's picture

No, you read that right. The Fed is a government arm for private profit: just like ALL government agencies.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 16:59 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

there is simply no way the credibility of the fed can be reduced

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment WarPony
WarPony's picture

mizzed it by thaaaat much.  Fuck you Bernanke.  Fuck the BIS.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The slut/easy +1 of ZH

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:03 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Of course the Fed is political. If it wasn't for politics, there would be no Fed. If it wasn't for the Fed, politics would be much less important as government would have a much smaller effect on the economy. What a wonderful relationship between the Fed and the US government...the government protects the Fed and the Fed keeps the power in Washington.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment USS Bernanke
USS Bernanke's picture

Wait this is one gigantic ponzi scheme?
Since when?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

Since the very first gold not was printed in excess of actual existing gold. From there, the ponzi only has two choices...inflate or die because the only way for ponzis to work is to keep growing and in this case the new entrants into the system are additional fiat. Since the dollar got sucked up by the world's central banks, the entire world is now on one big worldwide gigantic fiat ponzi scheme and there are literally no more central banks left to suck up the dollar because it has now engulfed the entire planet, which means game over.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK so anyway markets are now closed so all-clear sounded for 'Plan-B' vote I guess so that whichever way the vote goes we have a floor built under todays close for a nice futures ramp.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:08 | Link to Comment oleander garch
oleander garch's picture

I hate to break it to you over the holidays but Santa is make believe, too.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:12 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

Hey now,

Good to see all the rings being ran around the fed res. Set up to destroy our while system, the job is almost done, time to exit stage left, one hundred years was the time line to do it. What may come soon judging by the fast rise in crude, is anyone's guess. Something wicked may be coming this way besides this of course:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=2012%20DA14%20&orb=1

Here for posterity purposes is this Light containing report. Share it if you feel it worthy.:

 

12-20-12

Happy Holidays and SSRI’s Best Wishes to You!

Attack of the Drones War Part II

Here comes Christmas and who knows what else folks.

Things are really heating up in the kitchen of chaos, what with this gun ban battle and false flag event in Newtown, CT. We are all sorry for what happened to those people but the truth is, the real and only reason for the mass killings are the SSRI drugs these kids are all taking.

http://www.ssristories.com/index.php

Babylon is at a quick paced full on assault on the Second Amendment. We are hearing about the head puppet trying to use color of law orders to supersede the Constitution, the real law of the land, by implementing some sort of gun control. Why? So we will be weakened by our own govt working for the babylonian globalists that are about to embroil us into more world war with the chinese and russians. It will be easier to conquer the country after the seditious american citizenry is disarmed. That was part of the deal when the babylonians were getting war money from the chinese. The communists in the white house had to quell those evil americans before the chinese and russian invasion comes, otherwise the invasion would be in doubt of succeeding. It all could come in UN blue too.

Communist Chinese Government Calls For Americans to be Disarmed:

http://www.infowars.com/communist-chinese-government-calls-for-americans...

Red Alert!! Obama GUN CONFISCATION Starts Jan 1, 2013:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ddlqz1X5KjY

Take away America’s only ways of defending it’s populations and the conquering will be a lot easier shooting these fish in the barrel. All according to the plan of course. These evil things pit everyone against each other and then come and kill off the rest of those who served them just before they take over everything. Same cycles of the two previous world wars. We are collectively too stupid to learn from history anymore that it is the same old Cesarean divide and conquer methodology to subdue and take over nations resources and lands. The new twist is, they also know the crash is coming and do not want people to have the ability to go after the real criminals in govt. We should have already done what Iceland did.

http://www.biblebelievers.org.au/przion1.htm

But it may not go as planned:

Exclusive: Cops, detectives, FBI agents, U.S. soldiers tell Natural News they will not enforce gun confiscation orders:

http://www.naturalnews.com/038391_gun_confiscation_executive_orders_cops...

Another aspect not to forget is the Federal Reserve has done it’s job of destroying this country and indebting it into an endless hole of woe-is-me. They may have hyped the 2012 thing to be a cover for the real crash of the Fed Res as planned. The charter was only to last one hundred years and then it is a done deal. Crash and profit as they leave the rest of the country to battle amongst themselves and then come back and take control later after the chaos has played out it’s course. Pretty simple evil. Same world war cycle, only this time america is being set up to lose.

What we are always looking at is the signs on the wall. We all see the gun issue now, but who is looking at the middle east preparations for war as this is being written? A war to cover the crash. As planned. One very concerning sign is the quick rising of the oil prices. Normally, and because the oil barons always know what is coming before it happens, the prices shoot up towards the sky just before a major event, or war related event happens. They want to profit and plunder as much as possible before everything goes crazy. These evil monsters are sucking the nation dry like a giant squid vacuum of all monies, so no one can be empowered to stop them. The price of crude just shot up $4.00 since its low last week. It is still on the rise as the metals are on the sinking low. Makes one wonder who is selling massive amounts of silver and gold now to cash in before everything comes crashing down?

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

We also saw this article yesterday that is very concerning. Here is the story of an innocent girl and her family that was traumatized for nothing. These storm trooper crazies shot at and almost killed a teenage girl for no specific reason, other than they were serving a search warrant. They still have not said what it was for, and there appears to be no apparent reason for this horrible act of violence and tyranny. It looks more like a training operation for what is coming to EVERYONE’S’ DOOR SOON!

SWAT team fires semi-automatic weapons at unarmed teenage girl:

http://rt.com/usa/news/swat-teenage-girl-hughley-906/

Reading into the article, we see an alarming and powerful statement made by one of the marauders that invaded and attacked this girl. The report says he said, “She’s got a gun” and this was the triggering statement that sent these guys into a shark like feeding frenzy shooting at everything in an insane and uncontrolled way. Don’t forget that a lot of these evil drones are seasoned killers of women and children from the Iraq war who were specifically conditioned like lab rats to kill, and be heartless murderers for this very exact specific reason of the coming War on Americans. At any time, anywhere, any one of these horrible fbi killers can make this statement ‘they got a gun’ about anyone in any situation to bring down all hell fire on anyone they want to remove, or kill for any reason at all. One at a time, no one stands a chance. The disease of division has gone viral in America and now it is ripe to fall to itself…one by one. With the anti-constitutional laws they think are real written the way they are now, ANYONE can be murdered this way for any reason at all. There is no truth, justice, or rule of law anymore. We have effectively slipped into chaos and soon the hellish repercussions of a dead at the wheel nation will come to bare on the ignorant.

What is coming to america will be far, far worse than what happened in nazi germany. Those same banksters that created nazi germany, have now created nazi amerika. Do you get it people? Here is the exact tool and methodology of the babylonians that will come in the early morning, or any other time of day to murder you, or your family just because you believe you still have any rights at all. No one is going to escape the horrendous murderous beast that is going to come to your door eventually. Here is the evil that can say about anyone, “she has a gun” and then kill you without any recourse, or anyone caring.

Texas troopers subject women to roadside cavity searches after routine traffic stop (VIDEO):

http://rt.com/usa/news/texas-women-roadside-cavity-422/

Change!

We are slipping into something worse than the nazi evil germany ever was. This is the most wicked murderous empire state of evil that has ever come into creation in this world. AMERICA IS THE GREAT EVIL SATAN THEY SAY WE ARE. Own it! All you have to do is sit there and some day they will kick in your door and scream, you got a gun and kill you and yours with no one knowing anything but what the propagandists will blab in the next days news rag, if anything is even said at all. People will shrink in horror and hope they are not next. Stupid is as stupid does and they too will succumb to the beast eventually.

It is and has been a real shame to watch this nation slowly fall into the hell it is fast bound for. Truly, there are solutions and answers to every major problem there is. What are the chances of calling all the troops home for Christmas, instead of lining them up on the Syrian chessboard? Slim to none because the nation is struggling to survive and under too much duress to even care about anything but their own self serving ways and habits of the lazy. Most are hopelessly addicted to the TV drug and know not what comes soon. Sheep for the slaughter.

Will we as a Nation survive? Think about it. All you and your families have established over time can and will more than likely be wiped out in one night. Hundreds of years of traditions gone in an bloody instant. The evil take over of first your states, then your counties and towns will happen and no one is going to rescue you or save you from the coming holocaust. The wicked babylonian beast is about to do something horrible according to all the signs that are shaping up. Feel free to add to the list of these signs and pass this information on.

BE EXTRA VIGILANT NOW!

US Boots in Bulgaria? 'Foreign troops threat to sovereignty, benefit elites only':

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t46DMQY65Y4&feature=youtube_gdata_player

NATO Approves Sending Patriot Missiles to Turkey to Defend Against Syrian Strikes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=447RC06AhNU

Russia sends ship-killer missiles to Syria:

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2011/12/05/Russia-sends-ship-killer-...

Russia sends warships for possible Syria evacuation: agency

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/russia-sends-warships-possible-syria-evacuation...

Press TV: United States bent on eventual destruction of Russia:

http://www.veteranstoday.com/2012/12/14/232660/

Please pray for peace and awakening to find sanity so we can all learn to live as one good people of the world…in Peace. Tis the season after all.

Merry Happy Everything to everyone here. Babylonians too! We are all God's children.

.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:24 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

That was a cool UFO in that pic.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:14 | Link to Comment Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Excellent Knukles. Want moar.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

"Without risking sounding in any way shape or form as negative or impertinent"

Oh go on. No seriously, go ahead. Negate and impert the fuck out of them.

An important read. Nicely done.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:26 | Link to Comment jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

What is wrong with everyone walking on eggshells so not to be accused of being a "conspiracy theroist" or never mentioning the fact  the Federal Reserve is a criminal syndicate charging us interest for printing our currency when we don't need them for this. You are either Rothchild or Jesuit agents or you are..........

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Just another run-of-the-mill satanic pedophile?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 The  Feds. 6.5% unemployment mandate is a joke, being that the Fed. doesn't take into account labor participation figures.

 Just because you have a 6.5% unemployment rate, does not mean you have more employed workers. This also works in the other direction. Excellent piece Knuckles. Thank You for taking the time...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:34 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Surely it’s time to disregard the concept that Fed policies are well intentioned.

The well-intentioned part only applies to the private owners of the Federal Reserve System; of course the policies are intentional but their destructive effect on the economy are literally tearing apart not only the fabric of the economy of this nation but its political structure as well.

And what’s more, the targets of these destructive policies are literally publicly announced.

When representative government begins to represent the tyrants and not the people and the people, group by group, become targets so their owned property can be stolen with impunity by Fed policy… transferred primarily to a ruling financial elite to be used completely for their own benefit… then the rules of law and justice no longer are enforced. And the Congress, by its loud silence, is complicit to the crime.

And a new form of oppressive, totalitarian government has taken root.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:39 | Link to Comment infinity8
infinity8's picture

Knucks!? You've arrived - congrats & Bravo! I'm sure my eyebrows were literally raised when I first read about the unemployment target, agree completely.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:40 | Link to Comment Trader Joe
Trader Joe's picture

That post sucked monkey balls

No soup for you

NEXT!!!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:52 | Link to Comment stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

cheap, lying, no-good, rotten, four-flushing, low-life, snake-licking, dirt-eating, inbred, overstuffed, ignorant, blood-sucking, dog-kissing, brainless, dickless, hopeless, heartless, fat-ass, bug-eyed, stiff-legged, spotty-lipped, worm-headed sack of monkey shit the fed is.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:10 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

Once more, with feeling this time.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:17 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Yoda approves does.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:49 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

*Shamefully admits to dog-kissing*

 

No tongue though.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:43 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

There is porn of that ... er probably ...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment forwardho
forwardho's picture

the dependency upon the single datum construct already of a highly controversial nature may well likely reduce further the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s monetary efforts

Reduce further? Really?

I was under the impresion that all credibility had been reduced to nil by their actions quite some time ago.

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:57 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I can't wait to see interest rates go up on 200-220 million part time workers with a BLS unemployment rate calculated at 6.5%...

  Mind you, that will be after $2-3 Trillion more in printing... We'll all be living in caves and dumpsters then...

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Rompoculos
Rompoculos's picture

On September 8, 1974 Evel Knievel (1938-2007), in full costume, attempts to jump the Snake River Canyon in Idaho. Unfortunately, he falls far short of the other side. It’s a good time to buy stocks.

Next up, on October 11, 2007 Ben Bernanknevel (1953-?), in full costume, attempts to jump the deflation grand canyon in the economy, USA. It’s a good time to sell stocks. Ben hasn’t landed yet, but it looks like he’s hoping that the other side will rise up to meet him soon. Will he make it?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:59 | Link to Comment earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

great read!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:03 | Link to Comment Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

Well done Knukles.  Congratulations.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:04 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

And now for the weather...

It was reported last evening that Hell is in the grip of sub-zero temperatures.

 

Amazing the personality changes that impending retirement can bring out in Bawney "I see nothing" Fwank.

What's next? Getting caught en flagrante with a teen-age girl?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:16 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

ie they've given themselves carte blanche without having ever to deliver upon their mandate (I use that word loosely) and in the end, like all their other policies, serve the few at the cost of many... in other news nothing has changed.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:34 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Thats perfect commie ideology - sacrife the few for the good of the many, gotta break some eggs if you want to make an omelet, etc.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

+

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:44 | Link to Comment williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

SANTA PAUL'S PRE-CHRISTMAS MESSAGE

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Could this missive be penned by our very own often caustic, sometimes surly, Knuckles whom we all know and love?

the dependency upon the single datum construct already of a highly controversial nature may well likely reduce further the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s monetary efforts.

An uncharacteristically measured statement from a notable Fight Club brawler is causing my confusion.

Nonetheless, well done.


 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:49 | Link to Comment cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

The highlighted passage is a polite way of suggesting that the Fed are lying manipulative cocksuckers who will die of AIDS after repeatedly ass-raping the nation.

It's the only way you can get this stuff past Congress' content filters.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 21:31 | Link to Comment smacker
smacker's picture

Bernanke would never get a job at BuBa. They always told the pols (who wanted to manipulate monetary policy for politcal reasons, especially in the run up to an election) that dealing with employment/unemployment levels was their job, not the banks. Focusing strictly on monetary policy and inflation, BuBa steered the German economy to where it was. Then it joined the Euro.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 22:45 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Doesn't sound quite as dramatic when you boil it down into regular English.

The Fed announcement that it will remain focused on a specific unemployment rate is unusual and far more important than has been generally recognized.

Fed policy has never before been explicitly linked to a single statistic.

Although pledging to maintain expansive monetary policy until unemployment is reduced below 6.5% may seem like a positive step, the lack of a clear definition and the strange dynamics of the government-cited statistic render the pledge inherently fluid and open to manipulation.

This may be a well-intentioned misdirection, but such action may further erode confidence in the integrity of the Fed and thus worsen overall economic conditions.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 02:21 | Link to Comment spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Well done Knuk!

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 02:53 | Link to Comment mpyre
mpyre's picture

Ben-d over and take it like a woman!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!