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Final Q3 GDP Prints 3.1% - Government, Inventories Account For Half; Fixed Investment Negligible

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Moments ago the BEA released the final Q3 GDP number, which printed at 3.1%, up from the second GDP guesstimate 2.7% reported last month, the first 3%+ print since Q4 2011 when, just like today, everything was coming up roses and when growth was on the horizon. Sadly, just like then, reading between the lines reveals more of the same disappointing components, with nearly half of the entire 3.1% annualized growth being derived from Government (0.75) and Inventories (0.73%), combined adding 1.48% (more than in the second revision) of the 3.1% print. Annualized Personal Consumption as a portion of the final number rose modestly from 0.99% to 1.12%, but still is well below the 1.42% in the first Q3 GDP estimate. It is this number that will be closely watched once the preliminary Q4 GDP number is released in a one month. Recall that Q4 GDP is currently tracking between 0.5% and 1.5% depending who you ask. Finally, the most important real growth factor for the US economy - fixed investment - remained stubbornly flat, at a mere 0.12%, virtually unchanged from the first revision's 0.10%. In other words, in Q3 companies stubbornly refused to invest in capital investment i.e. CapEx, and will continue to do so as long as the Fed makes "investing" in dividends and buybacks a more rewarding option. Expect the same pattern to continue in Q4 only this time the Sandy and Fiscal Cliff excuses will be espoused by all the economic apologists.

Source: BEA

 


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Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Wake me when the revisions come out.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

The spike in gun sales will help Q4 numbers.  Wonder how Obummer is going to try to spin that one.  

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:08 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

So Government spending and "channel stuffing" (and by many government run or bailed out "private" companies) constitutes 1/2 of AmerikanKronyKapitalist GDP.

That's nice.

In the meantime, a weak dollar & "chain linked CPI" (i.e. lying about in order to intentionally and dramatically understate the rate of inflation) are the old "new again" memes that will save something about something having to do with our economy and the gambling dens that are equity, or for that matter, any "markets."

Forward Leftward, March!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Remove all the layers of lipstick and pancake make-up and there's the some old corpse lying on the slab.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:42 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

yeah, but bacon tastes good.  Porkchops taste good.  I don't care if it has lipstick on it.  that just makes it look more colorful.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:52 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Purina makes some tasty stuff.  My dogs and cats tell me so.  The botique pet food is almost more expensive that human quality meat.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:04 | Link to Comment jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

40% of canned dog and cat food sold is for human consumption.  

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:07 | Link to Comment ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Wow, chained CPI be damned.  Where to after pet food...don't answer.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:34 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

I'll answer.  The Hedonics calculator says road kill, food pantry and whatever you can trap in Central Park... or, your iPad.

When in doubt, change to formula to support the narrative, or, at least keep the SS payments down.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Government Policies = Money > Little Kids

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Take away the Trillions in QE and stimulus and where would we be? Take him off steroids and we find out hewas always a below average performer!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:48 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It's 8:30 am. Do you know where your Gold (price) is/was?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:50 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's cheap.....but no one is selling the real stuff.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:51 | Link to Comment docj
docj's picture

So, we're saved?

Cool - so can we stop deficit spending 8% of GDP now? Finally?

(Yeah, that's sarcasm.)

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:02 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

One man's sarcasm is entirely unAmerican in the halls of power.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

this lack of capital investment is akin to lacking in investing in new clothes..soon enough, they'll be holes in your socks, rings around the collars and an out of style wardrob.

will not be good to productivity in the years ahead.  at that point, we're screwed.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:03 | Link to Comment bcc
bcc's picture

Durable goods, nondurable goods, & services were all revised up. Inventories were revised lower. GDI was revised lower.

Not a great report, not terrible either.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:20 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

gee-you think that's what they want in the land of extend and pretend and pray?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:14 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

It's mostly military spending.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:19 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

why not just say its 10% and let the d-bag MSM media scream it from the mountains and then revise it to 1% next month. at this point who cares-other than the algos?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:33 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

GDP is a useless number. The only reason why it went up is due to all the money printing the FED did. Wait until next year. With unsterilized money printing GDP will shoot through the roof.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:36 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

a lot wind,guess they got it from  winter storm draco

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:40 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

If they are going to include the Government spending in the GDP calcs, then they ought to also include Government borrowing, too.  In which case, we have a massive negative print.  It seems to me that they are selectively choosing the info to support their narrative.

Garbage in, garbage out.  it's why I don't accept any government number as representative of reality.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:50 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

SO all the things that used to subtract from the GDP number now add to it? Absolutely nothing was added as a negative to GDP for Q3.

The new Obanormal.

How did imports add to GDP exactly?

I ordered my steak medium, this thing actually looks like better leather than the shoes I walked in wearing.

Can I have these guys do my taxes? I'll probably get a refund of $158 billion.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:08 | Link to Comment JethroTull
JethroTull's picture

C'mon guys it's not a bad number. Think positive!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:33 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Spike in government spending?  Must be ordering paper clips and staplers again.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment NitneLiun
NitneLiun's picture

Either that or the Departments of Education and Health and Human Services are buying bullets again.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:59 | Link to Comment crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

This GDP and all reminds me of 1984...

"Don't you see that the whole aim of this 'adminstration' is to narrow the range of thought? Has it ever occured to you that by the year 2050, at the very latest, not a single human being will be alive who could understand such a conversation as we are having now? The whole climate of thought will be different. In fact there will be not thought, as we understand it now. Orthodoxy means not thinking, not needing to think. Orthodoxy is unconsciounsess."

1984, Bk 1, Chapt 5.

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

We are fixed. Thank you Bernanker.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 08:26 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Doesnt matter what is real, these cocksuckers want Gold and Silver down and they will do anything possible to get it there.  This country is now running on fraud and deception, there is not growth and no integrity whatsoever in any of the finanical markest, these Jewsish bankers have ruined the US as they destroyed Germany.

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