Headwinds Vs. Tailwinds: The Macroeconomic HeatMap

Tyler Durden's picture


For all economies, the relative pressure of ‘tailwinds’ in relation to ‘headwinds’ will be crucial for the outcome of economic activity. In the chart below, Barclays shows a heat-map that represents their subjective assessment of the relative balance of forces from 2012 into 2013 and beyond. In 2013, the fiscal headwind continues to loom large and is an important basis of caution despite the strong improvement in financial conditions. The fiscal headwind is unlikely to abate by much in the US and Europe until 2014, possibly later. Other sources of ‘headwind’ are likely to continue during 2013; these include private sector de-leveraging in the highly indebted parts of Europe, as well as political uncertainty (in this context, we observe the elections in Italy (Q1) and Germany (Q4)). Monetary policy, policy reforms, and the financial markets themselves are the main tailwinds as vol suppression continues. Headwinds vs Tailwinds once again in 2013...



Table: Barclays

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Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:59 | 3084236 Kitler
Kitler's picture

If you ask me I think "Headwinds Vs. Tailwinds" is a little premature when we are still on the ground and running out of runway fast...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:54 | 3084635 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

It's the damned crosswinds that kill you.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:01 | 3084248 kito
kito's picture

tyler, how do we reach you when the world ends tomorrow?......

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:55 | 3084407 eXMachina
eXMachina's picture

It's already tomorrow here in Aussie. So..yeah

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:55 | 3084641 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

So, what's it like to be dead?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:01 | 3084252 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

LOL @ Fedl slows pace of QE in 3/4 of 2013.

get a grip, and stop smoking that hopium, its addictive.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:27 | 3084316 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

"Table: Barclays"


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:11 | 3084280 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

The collapse has already happened.

It's now nuclear winter.

Slow growth.  A contracting Europe.  Endless warfare.  A diminishing workforce.  Lower wages.

Welcome to the new normal.



Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:31 | 3084330 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Eh... don't think that persistent malaise and far-away wars are the extent of the new normal. There is still plenty of high Economic drama ahead as well...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:14 | 3084285 Relentless
Relentless's picture

I must be getting tired. I originally read that title as Macroeconomic MeatFlap. Maybe its thes references to wind ....

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 18:53 | 3084398 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 When you see MSM talking about China growth and GDP, just post this for them.

- People's Bank of China is to inject CNY 92bln this week versus CNY 125bln drain last week.

People's Bank of China injects CNY 60bln via 7 day reverse repos and CNY 33bln via 14 day reverse repos

Print 01:17 - Asian News - Source: Newswires

 Pulled it from Ransquawk feed last night. That reverse repo thing, is alive and well in China.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:00 | 3084425 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Gastric reflux versus Flatulance.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 01:59 | 3085887 dunce
dunce's picture

Formerly elections were not a cause for worry because democracies were self correcting of excesses. These days elections reinforce bad policy with more bad policy as the majotity have traded  principles for government redistribution. Debauchery only works if you are running a brothel as a business model  Success is every one getting screwed.

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