Silver To Gain 29% In 2013 - Analysts, Traders And Investors

Tyler Durden's picture

From GoldCore

Silver To Gain 29% In 2013 - Analysts, Traders And Investors

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,667.00, EUR 1,259.25 and GBP 1,024.96 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,674.50, EUR 1,261.49 and GBP 1,027.87 per ounce.

Cross Currency Table

Precious metals remained under pressure yesterday and closed with losses for both gold and silver. Gold closed down 0.2% or $3.50 to $1669.30/oz. Silver closed with a loss of 1.7% - down 54 cents to $31.10/oz.

GOLD SPOT $/OZ and 100, 200 and 465 Day SMAs– September 2011 To Today

Prices again crept gradually higher in Asian trading prior to some retrenchment in early European trading but dollar weakness was supporting gold and silver.

Further weakness could be seen and it is worth noting that gold and silver saw considerable weakness last December (see chart above) and both bottomed near year end on December 29th prior to strong gains in January 2012.

Support for silver is at $30.67/oz and $30/oz. Gold’s support is at $1,647/oz and below that at $1,600/oz.

Silver will rise as much as 29% to $40.25/oz, from $31.10/oz today, in 2013.

This is based on the median estimate of 49 analysts, traders and investors compiled by Bloomberg.

Global investment through silver backed exchange traded products reached a record 18,854 metric tons in November, or more than nine months of mine output, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Holdings are now valued at about $19.2 billion.

Bullion dealers all over the world report robust demand for silver and there has been a shift in many Asian and Middle Eastern markets from gold to silver - due to silver's relative cheapness and undervaluation versus gold.

According to Bloomberg, one of Singapore’s largest suppliers of coins and bars to retail investors, says sales tripled since October, part of a global surge in demand for silver that drove holdings to a record.

Silver almost tripled since the end of 2008, lagging behind only platinum in gains for precious metals this year as policy makers from the U.S. to China to Europe pledged more action to boost economies. That’s attracting investors betting that stimulus will stoke inflation and debase currencies. It’s also leading to diversification into silver by some who believe that economic growth will strengthen industrial demand for silver, 53% of which is used in everything from televisions to batteries.

Silver advanced 12% to $31.13 this year, compared with a 6.6% gain for gold and 14% rise for platinum. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities dropped 0.3 percent and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities jumped 14%. Treasuries returned 1.8%, according to Bloomberg.

Hedge funds and other large speculators increased bets on higher prices 12-fold since the end of June, to a net 34,862 futures and options, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s about 50% higher than the average over the past five years, a period during which traders have never been bearish.

Equity investors also believe higher prices are coming.

Shares of Mexico City-based Fresnillo Plc (FRES), the largest primary silver producer, rose 25% this year. The company will report a 22 percent gain in net income to a record $927.1 million in 2013, according to the mean of seven estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) in Idaho, which gets about 65 percent of its revenue from silver, fell 6.3 percent to $22.63 since the start of January and will reach $31.89 in 12 months, the average of analysts’ predictions shows.

Investors bought 1,464 tons through ETPs this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Silver holdings in the IShares Silver Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by silver, were unchanged at 9,871.29 metric tons as of Dec. 19, according to figures on the company’s website.

Total Known ETF Holdings of Silver

Prices could go lower should economic growth slow because it would curb demand for consumer goods. A car contains as much as 30 grams and a mobile phone about 0.25 gram, according to the Washington-based Silver Institute.

However, investment and store of value demand for silver looks set to continue to grow at a steady rate in 2013 and this should compensate for any decline in silver industrial demand as it has done in recent years.

The silver market remains a very small market and this continuing global investment and store of value demand should lead to silver reaching a real record high, inflation adjusted, of over $140/oz in the coming years.


Silver Vaults Stuffed Mean Prices Rising 29% in ’13 - BusinessWeek

Brazil's Gold Reserves Doubled Since August - IMF - WSJ

Gold inches up, uncertainty over U.S. fiscal talks weighs - Reuters

Gold Prices Slip in Quiet Trade; Fiscal Cliff in Focus - WSJ

Asia gold: Physical buying picks up; year-end supply a concern - The Economic Times

Gold Loans Hide India Shadow-Banking Risks - BusinessWeek


Is gold's bull-run over after 12 years of gains? - Reuters

Is gold finally a contrarian buy? - MarketWatch

Gold Will Top $2,000 in 2013: Kilburg - Yahoo

What Can 1 Ounce Of Gold Buy? - CCmmodity HQ

Fake tan in attempt to make US economy look more healthy than it is - Zero Hedge

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BandGap's picture

This prognostication is missing a zero.


GetZeeGold's picture



JPM is gonna have to pump out EBT's like they're water.

N. B. Forrest's picture

Nice analysis, but I've heard it all before.  I'll believe it when I see it. 

GetZeeGold's picture



We took the horse to the water and showed him......but he still wasn't buying it.

trav777's picture

shameless pumping to create a 2013 crop of silverbugz bagholders to blowtorch and harvest.

I remember when silver was going to "$50 by next week" and "39 by the end of this week" and buybuybuy with both fists and don't ask questions JUST BUY SILVER NOW. With cartoon bears and all of that shit.

Anybody who followed that advice lost massive stacks.

GetZeeGold's picture



Cat follows the market for a couple years and suddenly thinks he's Jim Cramer.

Killtruck's picture

The only time I ever lost any of my stacks was in that terrible boating accident.

jekyll island's picture

I love the sound silver coins make when they hit eachother.  I can recognize it with my eyes closed.   

trav777's picture

yeah, I pretty much figured silverbugz drooled at that sound. 

I prefer looking at a net worth statement that keeps going UP instead of down.


jekyll island's picture



I am not a silverbug, I look at it as part of my portfolio, like supplemental insurance to gold.  Errr, the gold I used to have before the boating accident.   Gonna trade it for gold if the ratio falls below 20:1 or use it to buy some other assets.  Silver is an industrial metal, it has also been used as money for over 2500 years.   

klockwerks's picture

Yes it is and they use a lot of it

stinkhammer's picture

hi ho silver!! away!

kralizec's picture

I don't need much reason to buy, between this modest prediction and the recent pullback, sure, I'll buy more!  ;)

trav777's picture

you would buy a lump of dung if there were a "prognosticator" on ZH telling you to.

Silverbugz are the epitome of "dumb money"

francis_sawyer's picture

By your standards ~ Mr. T. would be wearing big silver chains around his neck & picking it in fields for $5...

sharky2003's picture

Are these estimates from the same people calling for AAPL to hit 1000?

zilverreiger's picture

Yes but first down 60% in 2012

GetZeeGold's picture



That's why you should have started in 2002. Didn't you see the CNBC special?

zilverreiger's picture

dont have it in my cable plan

GetZeeGold's picture



You should'll get the home phone, internet and HBO all for one low price.


Act now and they'll throw in a 1965 silver colored dime.

new game's picture

mentaly, ten years ago i wasn't born-hehe.

learning to fly...

oh, yea shook a little dust out of my coon shin hat...

AgShaman's picture

A really good sale often shows itself around the X-mas holiday and after New Years....

When the weak hands and under-informed that were "gifted" their silver turn it back into the LCS for paper clown-bux

tuttisaluti's picture

Please explain inflation adjusted 140 US$. What would be the real numbers?

JustObserving's picture

Silver is the most manipulated of commodities.  Yet people are making predictions?

All the silver bullion in the world is worth about $31.1 billion (a billion ounces) and that makes it easy to manipulate.  With the Fed having already printed $2.5 trillion and on track to print $3.06 trillion over the next 3 years, silver should be skyrocketing.

Silver will do what the Fed wants it to do.

GetZeeGold's picture



All the silver bullion in the world is worth about $31.1 billion


No guessing us your math and conversion tables.

IPA's picture

I am not sure how accurate this is, but 16 billion is much more than 1 billion. How much of the 16 billion is investment grade? How much of the 16 billion has more than one claim? I am pretty sure te silver market is bigger than 31.1 billion dollars. Adding the .1 to 31 implies a greater level of accuracy than even possible. Adding the 1 after 3 also implies a level of accuracy greater than possible.

Fuh Querada's picture

Wait for Goddam Sucks to put out a sell recommendation.

JustObserving's picture

Here are some facts.  Some estimate available (above-ground) silver at only 300 million ounces.  It takes Sprott months to buy 10 million ounces for his fund:

"Many of these statistics are estimates, but the world is currently consuming through industrial products and processes around 800 million ounces of silver annually.  However, annual world silver production is approximately 500 million ounces and annual recycling efforts provide another 150 million ounces, leaving a 150 million ounce deficit that must come from existing inventories.  This deficit is not new, but has continued now for the last 10 years, proving that in this very short period, 1.5 Billion ounces of silver have been totally consumed.  Compare this cumulative deficit and annual shortfall with the known remaining silver inventories above-ground of 300 million ounces, and what do you have?!!  A precious metal that is destined for short-supply, unless the very unlikely event occurs where annual consumption and production both decline by over 50%.  Unlikely indeed, since current forecasts call for 1 Billion ounces of silver to be consumed annually by the end of the decade, even with bouts of global recession.

On the gold side of the ledger, there is approximately 3,000 Million ounces (a.k.a. 3 Billion ounces) known to exist above-ground in bullion form, so this precious metal is currently 10 times more available than silver (gold's 3,000 Million versus silver's 300 Million inventory)."


buzzsaw99's picture

people here are so often wrong and yet they junk you when you are correct and they are wrong again.

Anasteus's picture

Silver will do what the Fed wants it to do.

... until some bigger players insist on physical delivery. Then the whole Comex silver business will go bust in 24 hours.

JustObserving's picture

The bigger players will not get physical delivery. They will get cash instead.  You are assuming free, rational markets.

You will go bust waiting for the Comex to go bust.

Anasteus's picture

It depends on China when the Fed will feel the healthy effect of ball squeezing. At the moment both sides profit from artificial low prices as China is accumulating like crazy.

agent default's picture

If you hold out for a massive physical delivery and get cash instead, you can make a huge stink out the whole situation.  That alone will break the COMEX.  It will be a huge mess.  It is a default of the physical side of the market.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

China, perhaps the biggest player, is just buying the mines & letting none go to market, gold, silver, copper, iron.

buzzsaw99's picture

All the silver bullion in the world is worth about $31.1 billion (a billion ounces)...


I think you missed a decimal place there [/LMAO]

trav777's picture

got bad news for you...neither the Fed nor any other CB gives a f$ck about silver. 

Who cares about silver?  Industrial consumers.

Until silver production peaks and declines, you don't have a particularly solid bull case in this commodity absent significant monetary inflation against flat supply.  Industry is, as constantly noted on ZH, in a state of freefall...where is the demand going to come from?

ChanceIs's picture
Silver Vaults Stuffed Means Price Rising 30% in ’13 By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen and Nicholas Larkin on December 20, 2012

Silver Bullion Pte, one of Singapore’s largest suppliers of coins and bars to retail investors, says sales tripled since October, part of a global surge in demand that drove holdings to a record.

“Our clients are worried that a major currency crisis or mass bankruptcies would occur,” said Gregor Gregersen, the 36- year-old founder of Silver Bullion, whose sales now average about S$6 million ($4.9 million) a month. “It all has to do with falling confidence in the heavily indebted Western governments and financial institutions.”

Per Bloomberg:

I have been sweating bullets over my silver holdings these last few weeks.  Blythe is really putting a hurt on my Christmas plans.  I can't understand why they continue to press downwards given the above.  A pox on their filthy investment houses.


klockwerks's picture

“Our clients are worried that a major currency crisis or mass bankruptcies would occur,” said Gregor Gregersen, the 36- year-old founder of Silver Bullion, whose sales now average about S$6 million ($4.9 million) a month. “It all has to do with falling confidence in the heavily indebted Western governments and financial institutions.”

I think that sum up the feelings that many people have. That statement says it all and explanes why we stack. 2013 could be the year you are glad to have your silver box, or 2 etc stacked in the vault plus your other "items"

bania's picture

I'd prefer to see a pullbacK in au ag this year before getting ready for launch

GetZeeGold's picture



You and just about everyone else.

tetsujin's picture

if it breaks 30.70ish... there's a lot of room to fall further

GetZeeGold's picture



Put all your money on's never let me down before.

augustusgloop's picture

Obviously it will break 30.7: at least it will momentarily plunge through 200 day MA. Any douche like myself with a browser and flash activated can see the support levels and the stop losses triggered. Then the fun begins. Buy the family silver of some bigger douche who upgraded to an even larger flat screen TV. You can't eat silverware, but you can eat with it. 

tetsujin's picture

yeah smart money is SELLING, not buying right now. price has dropped like a stone from 33. well selling paper at least. good chance to buy the real deal at a steal

Lewshine's picture

30.70?? Blythe will bang it through that level with ease by noon today - LOL!. I find it ironic that ALL these analyst are pinning a price consideration of 40.00 while everyone and their brother knows the Fed's objective with metals. Silver is at 60.00 right now if you subtract the daily derivative squeeze that's been happening for the last four years. These articles scare me to death - You never want to be into a trade or investment when these paid puppets collectively get to one side of the boat. THE EQUITY MARKET IS FAKE. THEREFORE, ALL MARKETS ARE MANIPULATED - AND ARE FAKE! WHY LEND CREDIBILITY TO THESE CALLS BY POSTING "IT", OR RESPONDING TO IT??!! SILVER WILL STOP FALLING WHEN THE FED BELIEVES THERE IS ENOUGH CASUALTIES IN THE TRADE...THEN, THEY WILL ALLOW A COUPLE MONTHS OF REAL PRICING AND MOVEMENT, BEFORE CRUSHING THE HOPES OF EVERYONE HOLDING OR TRADING, ONCE AGAIN. YOU CAN SET YOUR WATCH TO IT! CURRENTLY: SILVER TRADING AT 30.33, DOWN .75 CENTS...8:08 CST.

trav777's picture

it knifed right through that as if it wasn't even there...