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Silver To Gain 29% In 2013 - Analysts, Traders And Investors

Tyler Durden's picture


From GoldCore

Silver To Gain 29% In 2013 - Analysts, Traders And Investors

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,667.00, EUR 1,259.25 and GBP 1,024.96 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,674.50, EUR 1,261.49 and GBP 1,027.87 per ounce.

Cross Currency Table

Precious metals remained under pressure yesterday and closed with losses for both gold and silver. Gold closed down 0.2% or $3.50 to $1669.30/oz. Silver closed with a loss of 1.7% - down 54 cents to $31.10/oz.

GOLD SPOT $/OZ and 100, 200 and 465 Day SMAs– September 2011 To Today

Prices again crept gradually higher in Asian trading prior to some retrenchment in early European trading but dollar weakness was supporting gold and silver.

Further weakness could be seen and it is worth noting that gold and silver saw considerable weakness last December (see chart above) and both bottomed near year end on December 29th prior to strong gains in January 2012.

Support for silver is at $30.67/oz and $30/oz. Gold’s support is at $1,647/oz and below that at $1,600/oz.

Silver will rise as much as 29% to $40.25/oz, from $31.10/oz today, in 2013.

This is based on the median estimate of 49 analysts, traders and investors compiled by Bloomberg.

Global investment through silver backed exchange traded products reached a record 18,854 metric tons in November, or more than nine months of mine output, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Holdings are now valued at about $19.2 billion.

Bullion dealers all over the world report robust demand for silver and there has been a shift in many Asian and Middle Eastern markets from gold to silver - due to silver's relative cheapness and undervaluation versus gold.

According to Bloomberg, one of Singapore’s largest suppliers of coins and bars to retail investors, says sales tripled since October, part of a global surge in demand for silver that drove holdings to a record.

Silver almost tripled since the end of 2008, lagging behind only platinum in gains for precious metals this year as policy makers from the U.S. to China to Europe pledged more action to boost economies. That’s attracting investors betting that stimulus will stoke inflation and debase currencies. It’s also leading to diversification into silver by some who believe that economic growth will strengthen industrial demand for silver, 53% of which is used in everything from televisions to batteries.

Silver advanced 12% to $31.13 this year, compared with a 6.6% gain for gold and 14% rise for platinum. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities dropped 0.3 percent and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities jumped 14%. Treasuries returned 1.8%, according to Bloomberg.

Hedge funds and other large speculators increased bets on higher prices 12-fold since the end of June, to a net 34,862 futures and options, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. That’s about 50% higher than the average over the past five years, a period during which traders have never been bearish.

Equity investors also believe higher prices are coming.

Shares of Mexico City-based Fresnillo Plc (FRES), the largest primary silver producer, rose 25% this year. The company will report a 22 percent gain in net income to a record $927.1 million in 2013, according to the mean of seven estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Coeur d’Alene Mines Corp. (CDE) in Idaho, which gets about 65 percent of its revenue from silver, fell 6.3 percent to $22.63 since the start of January and will reach $31.89 in 12 months, the average of analysts’ predictions shows.

Investors bought 1,464 tons through ETPs this year, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Silver holdings in the IShares Silver Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund backed by silver, were unchanged at 9,871.29 metric tons as of Dec. 19, according to figures on the company’s website.

Total Known ETF Holdings of Silver

Prices could go lower should economic growth slow because it would curb demand for consumer goods. A car contains as much as 30 grams and a mobile phone about 0.25 gram, according to the Washington-based Silver Institute.

However, investment and store of value demand for silver looks set to continue to grow at a steady rate in 2013 and this should compensate for any decline in silver industrial demand as it has done in recent years.

The silver market remains a very small market and this continuing global investment and store of value demand should lead to silver reaching a real record high, inflation adjusted, of over $140/oz in the coming years.


Silver Vaults Stuffed Mean Prices Rising 29% in ’13 - BusinessWeek

Brazil's Gold Reserves Doubled Since August - IMF - WSJ

Gold inches up, uncertainty over U.S. fiscal talks weighs - Reuters

Gold Prices Slip in Quiet Trade; Fiscal Cliff in Focus - WSJ

Asia gold: Physical buying picks up; year-end supply a concern - The Economic Times

Gold Loans Hide India Shadow-Banking Risks - BusinessWeek


Is gold's bull-run over after 12 years of gains? - Reuters

Is gold finally a contrarian buy? - MarketWatch

Gold Will Top $2,000 in 2013: Kilburg - Yahoo

What Can 1 Ounce Of Gold Buy? - CCmmodity HQ

Fake tan in attempt to make US economy look more healthy than it is - Zero Hedge

For breaking news and commentary on financial markets and gold, follow us on Twitter.


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Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:52 | 3082061 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I'm all in!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:54 | 3082064 BandGap
BandGap's picture

This prognostication is missing a zero.


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:57 | 3082069 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



JPM is gonna have to pump out EBT's like they're water.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:11 | 3082098 N. B. Forrest
N. B. Forrest's picture

Nice analysis, but I've heard it all before.  I'll believe it when I see it. 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:30 | 3082100 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



We took the horse to the water and showed him......but he still wasn't buying it.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:40 | 3082165 trav777
trav777's picture

shameless pumping to create a 2013 crop of silverbugz bagholders to blowtorch and harvest.

I remember when silver was going to "$50 by next week" and "39 by the end of this week" and buybuybuy with both fists and don't ask questions JUST BUY SILVER NOW. With cartoon bears and all of that shit.

Anybody who followed that advice lost massive stacks.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:45 | 3082184 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Cat follows the market for a couple years and suddenly thinks he's Jim Cramer.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:50 | 3082204 Killtruck
Killtruck's picture

The only time I ever lost any of my stacks was in that terrible boating accident.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:58 | 3082254 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

I love the sound silver coins make when they hit eachother.  I can recognize it with my eyes closed.   

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:51 | 3082488 trav777
trav777's picture

yeah, I pretty much figured silverbugz drooled at that sound. 

I prefer looking at a net worth statement that keeps going UP instead of down.


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:10 | 3082548 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture



I am not a silverbug, I look at it as part of my portfolio, like supplemental insurance to gold.  Errr, the gold I used to have before the boating accident.   Gonna trade it for gold if the ratio falls below 20:1 or use it to buy some other assets.  Silver is an industrial metal, it has also been used as money for over 2500 years.   

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:59 | 3083104 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

Yes it is and they use a lot of it

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:54 | 3082063 stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

hi ho silver!! away!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:23 | 3082123 kralizec
kralizec's picture

I don't need much reason to buy, between this modest prediction and the recent pullback, sure, I'll buy more!  ;)

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:52 | 3082489 trav777
trav777's picture

you would buy a lump of dung if there were a "prognosticator" on ZH telling you to.

Silverbugz are the epitome of "dumb money"

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:35 | 3082634 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

By your standards ~ Mr. T. would be wearing big silver chains around his neck & picking it in fields for $5...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:54 | 3082065 sharky2003
sharky2003's picture

Are these estimates from the same people calling for AAPL to hit 1000?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:57 | 3082070 Drachma
Drachma's picture

My thoughts exactly.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:57 | 3082068 zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

Yes but first down 60% in 2012

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:58 | 3082071 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



That's why you should have started in 2002. Didn't you see the CNBC special?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:59 | 3082072 zilverreiger
zilverreiger's picture

dont have it in my cable plan

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:06 | 3082090 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



You should'll get the home phone, internet and HBO all for one low price.


Act now and they'll throw in a 1965 silver colored dime.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:11 | 3082097 new game
new game's picture

mentaly, ten years ago i wasn't born-hehe.

learning to fly...

oh, yea shook a little dust out of my coon shin hat...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 08:59 | 3082076 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

A really good sale often shows itself around the X-mas holiday and after New Years....

When the weak hands and under-informed that were "gifted" their silver turn it back into the LCS for paper clown-bux

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:00 | 3082078 tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

Please explain inflation adjusted 140 US$. What would be the real numbers?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:01 | 3082079 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Silver is the most manipulated of commodities.  Yet people are making predictions?

All the silver bullion in the world is worth about $31.1 billion (a billion ounces) and that makes it easy to manipulate.  With the Fed having already printed $2.5 trillion and on track to print $3.06 trillion over the next 3 years, silver should be skyrocketing.

Silver will do what the Fed wants it to do.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:06 | 3082091 Drachma
Drachma's picture


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:26 | 3082096 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



All the silver bullion in the world is worth about $31.1 billion


No guessing us your math and conversion tables.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:50 | 3082194 IPA
IPA's picture

I am not sure how accurate this is, but 16 billion is much more than 1 billion. How much of the 16 billion is investment grade? How much of the 16 billion has more than one claim? I am pretty sure te silver market is bigger than 31.1 billion dollars. Adding the .1 to 31 implies a greater level of accuracy than even possible. Adding the 1 after 3 also implies a level of accuracy greater than possible.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:12 | 3082099 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

Wait for Goddam Sucks to put out a sell recommendation.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:19 | 3082111 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Way wrong there fideo, just the US silver coin minted alone is worth $66 billion. Not to mention the silver  bars, coins and not to mention  all the other country's with past silver  production. You are so far off I think have more than that sittin in my back yard you imbicile.

Just do the math before jamming your foot in your butt.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:38 | 3082145 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Here are some facts.  Some estimate available (above-ground) silver at only 300 million ounces.  It takes Sprott months to buy 10 million ounces for his fund:

"Many of these statistics are estimates, but the world is currently consuming through industrial products and processes around 800 million ounces of silver annually.  However, annual world silver production is approximately 500 million ounces and annual recycling efforts provide another 150 million ounces, leaving a 150 million ounce deficit that must come from existing inventories.  This deficit is not new, but has continued now for the last 10 years, proving that in this very short period, 1.5 Billion ounces of silver have been totally consumed.  Compare this cumulative deficit and annual shortfall with the known remaining silver inventories above-ground of 300 million ounces, and what do you have?!!  A precious metal that is destined for short-supply, unless the very unlikely event occurs where annual consumption and production both decline by over 50%.  Unlikely indeed, since current forecasts call for 1 Billion ounces of silver to be consumed annually by the end of the decade, even with bouts of global recession.

On the gold side of the ledger, there is approximately 3,000 Million ounces (a.k.a. 3 Billion ounces) known to exist above-ground in bullion form, so this precious metal is currently 10 times more available than silver (gold's 3,000 Million versus silver's 300 Million inventory)."


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:56 | 3082243 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

people here are so often wrong and yet they junk you when you are correct and they are wrong again.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:48 | 3082189 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Silver will do what the Fed wants it to do.

... until some bigger players insist on physical delivery. Then the whole Comex silver business will go bust in 24 hours.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:50 | 3082203 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

The bigger players will not get physical delivery. They will get cash instead.  You are assuming free, rational markets.

You will go bust waiting for the Comex to go bust.

Sat, 12/22/2012 - 11:28 | 3082291 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

It depends on China when the Fed will feel the healthy effect of ball squeezing. At the moment both sides profit from artificial low prices as China is accumulating like crazy.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:04 | 3082297 agent default
agent default's picture

If you hold out for a massive physical delivery and get cash instead, you can make a huge stink out the whole situation.  That alone will break the COMEX.  It will be a huge mess.  It is a default of the physical side of the market.

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 05:30 | 3091031 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

China, perhaps the biggest player, is just buying the mines & letting none go to market, gold, silver, copper, iron.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:57 | 3082208 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

All the silver bullion in the world is worth about $31.1 billion (a billion ounces)...


I think you missed a decimal place there [/LMAO]

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:54 | 3082504 trav777
trav777's picture

got bad news for you...neither the Fed nor any other CB gives a f$ck about silver. 

Who cares about silver?  Industrial consumers.

Until silver production peaks and declines, you don't have a particularly solid bull case in this commodity absent significant monetary inflation against flat supply.  Industry is, as constantly noted on ZH, in a state of freefall...where is the demand going to come from?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:13 | 3082557 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Cruise missiles?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:02 | 3082080 ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture
Silver Vaults Stuffed Means Price Rising 30% in ’13 By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen and Nicholas Larkin on December 20, 2012

Silver Bullion Pte, one of Singapore’s largest suppliers of coins and bars to retail investors, says sales tripled since October, part of a global surge in demand that drove holdings to a record.

“Our clients are worried that a major currency crisis or mass bankruptcies would occur,” said Gregor Gregersen, the 36- year-old founder of Silver Bullion, whose sales now average about S$6 million ($4.9 million) a month. “It all has to do with falling confidence in the heavily indebted Western governments and financial institutions.”

Per Bloomberg:

I have been sweating bullets over my silver holdings these last few weeks.  Blythe is really putting a hurt on my Christmas plans.  I can't understand why they continue to press downwards given the above.  A pox on their filthy investment houses.


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:06 | 3083141 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

“Our clients are worried that a major currency crisis or mass bankruptcies would occur,” said Gregor Gregersen, the 36- year-old founder of Silver Bullion, whose sales now average about S$6 million ($4.9 million) a month. “It all has to do with falling confidence in the heavily indebted Western governments and financial institutions.”

I think that sum up the feelings that many people have. That statement says it all and explanes why we stack. 2013 could be the year you are glad to have your silver box, or 2 etc stacked in the vault plus your other "items"

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:02 | 3082084 bania
bania's picture

I'd prefer to see a pullbacK in au ag this year before getting ready for launch

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:07 | 3082092 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



You and just about everyone else.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:19 | 3082108 tetsujin
tetsujin's picture

if it breaks 30.70ish... there's a lot of room to fall further

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:29 | 3082130 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Put all your money on's never let me down before.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:42 | 3082154 augustusgloop
augustusgloop's picture

Obviously it will break 30.7: at least it will momentarily plunge through 200 day MA. Any douche like myself with a browser and flash activated can see the support levels and the stop losses triggered. Then the fun begins. Buy the family silver of some bigger douche who upgraded to an even larger flat screen TV. You can't eat silverware, but you can eat with it. 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:53 | 3082218 tetsujin
tetsujin's picture

yeah smart money is SELLING, not buying right now. price has dropped like a stone from 33. well selling paper at least. good chance to buy the real deal at a steal

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:10 | 3082325 Lewshine
Lewshine's picture

30.70?? Blythe will bang it through that level with ease by noon today - LOL!. I find it ironic that ALL these analyst are pinning a price consideration of 40.00 while everyone and their brother knows the Fed's objective with metals. Silver is at 60.00 right now if you subtract the daily derivative squeeze that's been happening for the last four years. These articles scare me to death - You never want to be into a trade or investment when these paid puppets collectively get to one side of the boat. THE EQUITY MARKET IS FAKE. THEREFORE, ALL MARKETS ARE MANIPULATED - AND ARE FAKE! WHY LEND CREDIBILITY TO THESE CALLS BY POSTING "IT", OR RESPONDING TO IT??!! SILVER WILL STOP FALLING WHEN THE FED BELIEVES THERE IS ENOUGH CASUALTIES IN THE TRADE...THEN, THEY WILL ALLOW A COUPLE MONTHS OF REAL PRICING AND MOVEMENT, BEFORE CRUSHING THE HOPES OF EVERYONE HOLDING OR TRADING, ONCE AGAIN. YOU CAN SET YOUR WATCH TO IT! CURRENTLY: SILVER TRADING AT 30.33, DOWN .75 CENTS...8:08 CST.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:55 | 3082510 trav777
trav777's picture

it knifed right through that as if it wasn't even there...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:01 | 3082085 pacu44
pacu44's picture


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:01 | 3082086 pacu44
pacu44's picture


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:14 | 3082102 new game
new game's picture

no future predictor here; but will add soon.

holding my own-hehe.

sick fucker...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:19 | 3082107 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

All fine and well, but when will we see harsh consequences for illegal behaviour?

On that note, bernank, you will get whats coming you're way in due course.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:19 | 3082109 youngman
youngman's picture

It will pullback and is right now....TPTB cannot have it doing better than any takes all their "FAITH" away...if you know what I mean

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:21 | 3082116 dcj98gst
dcj98gst's picture

Just slowly accumulate on a steady basis.  You will be rich someday..... I promise!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:44 | 3082179 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

been buying about 10oz a week for the past 3 years. Don't even pay attention to the swings in the price. See you on the other side

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:22 | 3082120 new game
new game's picture

so here we are up 12 percent from 27.85

after transaction fees and shipping net 10 percent.

what is the problem???

why all the angst over recent drop?

simple metric of 350% debt (200T) to gdp with more printing to come.

buy whatever you can afford-simple!


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:00 | 3082263 IPA
IPA's picture

I am with you, it seems people forget that it is still up on a yoy basis, especially MSM. I think there are many people that buy when it starts/has been going up for some time, then get crushed in a big price swing. I have no facts and figures just anecdotal stuff. The same thing happens with the stock market. Until one learns to not be bothered by price swings...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:11 | 3083160 klockwerks
klockwerks's picture

Good advise and the only reason to watch it is to be able to buy more when you are ready. Just sit on it

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:27 | 3082126 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

SLV has been empty since May of 2011 when JPM took over vaulting operations of what little silver it actually had and dumped it on the market to buy time.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:14 | 3082340 rqb1
rqb1's picture

correct you are sir.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:38 | 3082127 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

WTF?  More crap!

With silver you have the following inflection points:

  1. Price surpression, the Morg et al.
  2. Takes 1 ounce of silver to make a solar panel, China is so water poor it imports water by importing food.  They'll do massive solar which doesn't use water like ALL other energy does.
  3. Silver:Gold ratio historcially hovers at 10:1 it's 52:1 last I looked.
  4. Supply: 736 million ounces a year mined, 215 million ounces off scrap.  891 times that amount is traded each day [on paper].
  5. Silver is poor man's gold.

The prices silver will go to in a short period of time is so staggering that the human mind can not be wrapped around the figure.  29 percent is a fucking erroneous joke.

And FTW, this is the crap that also ruins your credibility:  

"Prices could go lower should economic growth slow because it would curb demand for consumer goods. A car contains as much as 30 grams and a mobile phone about 0.25 gram, according to the Washington-based Silver Institute."

You have no macro inkling about solar!  Cars? Mobile Phones?  Maybe you need to tell the Silver Institute about solar.  Solar output is exponential!  You're so fucking inlene clueless!

Year / Gugawatt outputt global

2005 5.4

2006 7.0

2007 9.4

2008 15.7

2009 22.9

2010 39.7

2011 67.4

We're fucking China's rounding error population wise.  1.3-1.6 billion people, the .3 billion is 300 million, that's us.  You are so fucking economically inept it amazes me shit like this gets posted to the best economic blog.

And the other thing you know nothing about is water!

It's all about population stressing resources.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:45 | 3082164 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Silver can be eliminated from solar panels, just as it is CURRENTLY being eliminated from solder (where your cell phone silver is consumed .... and much of it is reclaimed. The more used, the more reclaimed.). There are lower cost alternative technologies for the metalized traces on solar panels. Implementation will only be a couple of years.

Sheesh, how many people look in the rear view mirror to project the future? Start looking out the front of the car.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:39 | 3082666 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Moron! Silver is the BEST conductor of electricity, and PV panels are so effing inefficient that removing silver makes them near useless.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:08 | 3082311 IPA
IPA's picture

Just did a quick google search, there are several articles discussing the replacement of silver in photo voltaic cells.  I would be more excited about the antimicrobial properties of silver, until we start getting silver resistant bacteria, but from what I can tell it is much harder to develop a silver resistance than a drug resistance( I am not a biologist).

Long silver hospital door handles.

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 05:14 | 3091024 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Actually it would be brass rather than silver for door handles. Silver would be ideal for handles for surgical tools (blades need to be harder & sharper) while pure copper works for tables those tools rest on. All disinfecting in a cost-effective manner.

Silver rips apart bonds with amino acids so no resistance will work by any bacterium.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:31 | 3082136 new game
new game's picture

here we go sub 31.

somewhere first buys around 650


shaking out weak hands or broke fuckers ...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:33 | 3082142 new game
new game's picture

been waiting all year for this

be happy :D

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:51 | 3082150 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

To state the all too obvious: Silver is a manipulated and controlled price commodity. THERE ARE NO FUNDAMENTAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND FACTORS "CURRENTLY" THAT ALTER THE PRICE OF SILVER IN THE UPWARD DIRECTON. (demand is only being created by scam)

So, when you state that the price of silver will increase by 30% then what you are really stating is one of two things:

a) the dollar will decline in value by 30% in 2013 ... or

b) the bankers who control the price of silver will simply move the price up by 30%

Those are the ONLY two choices.

There is no shortage of silver. If more is required, more is mined and refined. Fundamentally, when the need for silver in photo applications declined going into the digital age and now is almost completely gone, the powerS that control silver, to prevent a complete and utter collapse of the silver market, got NGOs moving to ban lead in solder, which at the time required silver in the alloy. Now, because of the EXCESSIVELY HIGH PRICE OF SILVER, it is being eliminated from solder by going to low and no silver content alloys. So, what did the controllers of commodity fraud do? They created an air of fraudulent shortage and the whole sound money scam. Just FYI (and go ahead and label me a heretic), silver and gold are only sound money IF and ONLY IF they have a use AND there is a shortage of supply. Silver, no shortage of supply, and I suspect that we have all been lied to about to available above ground gold in the world (but that is only a conspiracy theory)

So, believe whatever sell-side scammer you want to believe, but when you step back and evaluate whether it makes any sense, consider how much of a shortage there will be under a variety of the most likely scenarios. People can be such guppies.

Cheers! And oh please excuse me for not worshipping at Satan's alter of commodity fraud.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:56 | 3082242 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

By the way, if you do not believe me, then pull up the silver institutes chart of where silver is going. It should be obvious:

Photography DOWN coincident with solder for electronics up ... and then a blip up in the last few years from so called investors (AKA suckers)

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 05:11 | 3091023 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

and yet bacteria constant evolve to beat every anti-biotic but can NOT evolve immunity to silver. That's a big growing market for pure silver AND pure copper (table tops in operating rooms).

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 05:10 | 3091021 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Flat out, those are NONE of the choices. Clearly you do not understand the relation of "dollars" to "goods".

Goods, tangibles:

land, food, water, oil, electricity, natural gas, silver, copper, gold.

These all fluctuate in value relative to each other, not measured in dollars. Measured using each OTHER as prices. THEN combined they all fluctuate INVERSELY to the supply of dollars. This is NOT a 1 to 1 ratio with silver.

a 30% rise in silver is NOT a 30% decline in DOLLARS.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:47 | 3082175 tallen
tallen's picture

Silver to break $100, silver to soar, silver to explode, silver to break higher.

Aren't we all tired of these types of articles with silver will be at [insert arbitrary number here] by the end of the year. Get rich quick schemes don't EXIST. All the get rich quick investors are getting wiped out right now and I welcome it. If you don't understand an investment, don't invest in it. Investing purely because you read something about it about to soar NEVER works. I invest on fundamentals.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:49 | 3082199 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Yep, I buy purely as a hedge against currency deval/collapse. Have no interest in get rich quick schemes. I have about $55K in coins stored in my living area and continue to add weekly. Remember the survival rate drops to zero for everyone if we wait long enough. Happy Trails

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 04:50 | 3091009 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

"I have about $55K in coins at the bottom of my lake and lose more off the side of my boat every week"

There, fixed it for ya.

Boating accidents, bitchez

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:45 | 3082182 Goyim Sheep
Goyim Sheep's picture

29% should be easy. All it has to do is retrace half of this mornings beatdown.


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:46 | 3082186 Zgangsta
Zgangsta's picture

Gonna hit the 20's today...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:46 | 3082187 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Keep on stuffin' !      Angus McHugepenis .... don't fuck mad !  

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:47 | 3082191 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Look what is happening to silver and gold now.  The manipulation is relentless. Of course, we have the freest, fairest markets that money can buy.

The CFTC will study silver manipulation for 4 more years and declare "what manipulation?"

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:49 | 3082197 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

actually  that   140  is  simply  an  inflation  adjusted  extrapolation of  the  1980 Hunt  high  of  50.

    however this  number  is based  on  a  completely  cooked  official CPI post  1986  with  its  horseshit hedonic adjustments  etc.

    a  better  number  is  Shadowstats  inflation  measure   which  measures  inflation consistent  with  the pre fraud   methodology and  stays  consistent.

    by  this  apples to  apples measure   the  correct  inflation  adjusted  high  in  todays  confetti   dollars  is  460  dollars  the  ounce.

    but  the  1980  high was  the  product of  the  Hunt  corner  so  its  not  a  good  number   ...  probably  true

    to  which i  would reply there  were  12billion  ounces  of above  ground  silver  in 1980   and even   the  Silver Institute tells  me  that  number  has  fallen 92  percent  to  one  billion ounces  today.

    Well the Silver Institute have been  lying  through their  teeth  since God was a child.

    If this  sorry  lot  concede a   billion  ounces   one  can  be  confident  that  the  correct  number   for  above  ground  silver  inventories as  defined  is ZERO   its  hand  to  mouth  on  current  mine  supply   and  subject to an  industrial user  panic at any  time.

    but  the  true  confidence  builder is  when  that  perfidious   shill Christian  tells  me    inventories  are  going to  soar  in  2013, so  now i  KNOW im  right.

   This cheap  clown  is the best  asset  silver bulls  could possibly  wish  for  ,  relentlessly  wrong  and  a   truly spectacularly  dependable  negative  indicator   witness his  shooting his mouth  off at the CFTC hearing  in  march  2010.   So  we actually  fractionally reserve paper silver    100 times do  we now?  How very interesting.

    Sharp  eyes  took  due  notice ...  in  the  subsequent  12  months   silver  went  from  17  to  50 courtesy  of the aforementioned. Stay  healthy  bud  you  are making me rich.

    Target   4  digits  in  due  course, Smile and stack.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:50 | 3082202 Smuckers
Smuckers's picture

It's one of the only true buy and hold vehicles left.  I don't have the energy to play stocks, stressing about RSI's, MACD's, Bumminger Bands.

Just buy some physical, make a hole in the ground and sit on it.  That, I can do.


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:53 | 3082212 agent default
agent default's picture

Aaaaaaaaaand plunge. Silver -1% gold-0.5% after COMEX open.  What happened Morgan Stanley pulling out of another hedge fund again? This is just getting beyond bullshit.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:45 | 3082419 unununium
unununium's picture

That +29% prediction now has to be +32%.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:52 | 3082215 casaananda
casaananda's picture

Dollar falling this morning and the PM's getting trashed. Never seen such heavy handed manipulation. Really fucking depressing.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:18 | 3082372 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Why be depressed when the end result WILL be catastrophic for the manipulators who put their faith in paper


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 09:54 | 3082224 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

$1652 gold. They are rinsing all the stops below the 89 week MA. 

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 04:37 | 3091003 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

1600, possibly 1556 - goldpricemodel 2013 projection

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:16 | 3082358 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Better buy now before the Chinese buy up the rest of the PM,s

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:58 | 3082501 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Anyone selling in panic?

Then the manipulated end of year price smackdown really doesn't mean shit, does it?

Hold steady, mates. Don't be driven into the sheep pen. They want you to sell. Kill the PM gains for EOY accounting and push you back into nice safe equities. Ain't no profit unless you trade funny money for funny paper and PM's WILL show (eventually) just how funny that money has become. Bad for business.

That's the game.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:57 | 3082516 Hohum
Hohum's picture

If all these analysts say silver will rise, it most certainly will plunge in 2013.  But let's check the prediction on 12/31/13.

Sun, 12/23/2012 - 04:36 | 3091000 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

29% No, I don't think so. Silver will rise from 28.50 or 29 right up to 72 to 75. So let's say 29 to 72: +148%. The price pairings are:

29, 1611 (not the absolute low but a good estimate) and 72, 2400.

This has a trend slope on a scatterplot of: 2.27

log(2400/1274) / log(72/17) = 2.27

high vs low for the last 60 days yields a slope on the scatterplot more like 2.35. Short-term this may fail to hold to an entire year at 2.35x.

2011 dec 27 gold 08 | goldpricemodel | silver gold scatterplot

goldpricemodel 2013 roc 52-week

goldpricemodel 2013 projection

2012 apr 17 gold ROC trends | 52week ROC gold to 2400/oz

gold 52 week ROC 1980 to 2011


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