Silver Slumps To Biggest 3-Day Drop In Over A Year

Tyler Durden's picture


On the back of no news and no fundamental shifts in demand and supply, Silver has cliff-dived 7.5% in the last 3 days, its biggest drop in over a year, as the precious metal heads back towards unchanged on the year. We suspect that, just as with the NatGas story earlier this year (when it went bidless and was justified by endless chatter over what it meant, when in fact it was John Arnold unwinding his positions and closing shop), the moves we are seeing in not just precious metals but copper and across FX are liquidation-related (as we noted yesterday) as fundamentally facts remain the same, given central bank buying of gold into reserves and the Fed set to hit a $4 trillion balance sheet within the next year). Into the 2011 year-end we also saw dramatic 'liquidation-like' plunges in Silver (and gold) as it is very clear that whoever is 'selling' is entirely price-insensitive.

It's beginning to look a lot like H1 2012...


Silver broke below its 200DMA (red), and saw the biggest 3-day drop in over a year (lower pane)


yet another 2011 echo...




Chart: Bloomberg

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Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:35 | 3082641 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Still shiny.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:39 | 3082663 mick68
mick68's picture


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:40 | 3082667 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Walk in when everyone is running out.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:46 | 3082702 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The Bearing sweats this not.  I see a Precious Future for those with the physical, no worries.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:48 | 3082712 Stackers
Stackers's picture

and every sell off has happened exactly at the NYMEX open.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:52 | 3082733 trav777
trav777's picture

silverbugz getting absolutely BLOWTORCHED.

C'mon, this was a "can't miss buy" only 5 days ago!!!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:58 | 3082754 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO!!  Wake me when it's back down around $8 an ounce.  That's where my dollar cost average is.  Until then I will sleep fine.  And after that, I will still actually have plenty ofphysical purchasing power.  The monkey hammering is a prerequisite for the printing.  Who you gonna believe Trav? The MSM pushing paper promises that everything is okay or your own lying eyes?  You crack me up.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:07 | 3082817 trav777
trav777's picture

so you are saying "hold"?

Because anyone who was saying buy on Monday was a fool.

Silver is for people who are too low-class to afford gold, like people who fly coach.

You can tell you're a silverbug when your ZH adsenses are toyotas...they're trying to sell me a Bentley.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:09 | 3082831 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

talk about anger management

do you masturbate to UFC fights?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:28 | 3082930 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

The ads I see have young girls posing in skimpy clothes.  Does that make Trav a fayggalach?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:44 | 3083011 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I have it on good authority that Travs ads tend to be Cialis and other similar type products.

Although...., some of Travs rantings are very entertaining of late...


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 14:04 | 3083364 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I bought 3 millions shares of Apple (using a bull-call spread) at $5 a share in 2002 and sold every share at the absolute top on 9/21/12, bitchez, just like RoboTrader.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 14:49 | 3083535 Athenian
Athenian's picture

If that were true, you wouldn't be on this site.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 14:50 | 3083548 strannick
strannick's picture



Not price insensitive. They want the lowest price possible


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:36 | 3082971 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

If he's doing it between the rounds, then it's OK.
Still, he's making a fool of himself with these comments.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:07 | 3083147 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

dont hate on trav hes saving up his $ for his penis enlargement surgery.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 14:26 | 3083453 akak
akak's picture

Oh, so THAT is why he is always hatin' on black men!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:10 | 3082834 fuu
fuu's picture

You see ads? You really are a moron.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:17 | 3082879 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

yup, trav777 is so sophisticated that s/he doesnt know how to install adblock, noscript, etc.  i wouldnt be surprised if s/he was still using ms internet explorer for browsing.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:57 | 3083100 Oldballplayer
Oldballplayer's picture

He is.  I am tracking him.


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 15:17 | 3083682 trav777
trav777's picture

cool...because I'm giving you the finger right now

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 14:28 | 3083461 Midas
Midas's picture

But aren't you missing the Snorg girls?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:25 | 3082906 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Trav, are you one of those freegold morons?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:46 | 3083025 edb5s
edb5s's picture

I am assuming that you are just a troll, but nevertheless; you do realize that you can buy very small increments of gold, right?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:10 | 3083157 devo
devo's picture

Dude, trolling is so 2003

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:23 | 3083205 jughead
jughead's picture

Silver is what you keep at home to buy groceries and hookers with when the SHTF. Gold is what you hide offshore so the government can't easily confiscate it...again.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:44 | 3083296 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

I do admit it is convenient to hand over the establishment of your self-worth to Google Adsense.  It worked for Sartre... for Marx...  Assigning it to the Hegelian other is certainly less taxing than introspection.  Guess I should have never clicked on that "Either you like bacon or you're wrong" Snorg t-shirt ad. I really like the ocassional piece of bacon, but I'm also wrong a lot.  Now, I have no idea where to click next.  Is this how the ZH timeline ends?  No more clicking? 

Merry Christmas everybody!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 14:46 | 3083523 Athenian
Athenian's picture

I've been buying silver for years. And I have two Bentleys and a Ferrari. All three with custom made solid silver kickboards.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 15:13 | 3083666 wsm4826
wsm4826's picture

FYI if you look a little closer your bentley adsense is actually a chrysler

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:08 | 3082822 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

yep.  lots of buyers will be waiting at the gap fill from August 20th

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:40 | 3082995 Atlasshruggedme
Atlasshruggedme's picture

I went to the GAP, but they tried to sell me Clothes and a GAP Credit card, not silver. 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:09 | 3082830 Spider
Spider's picture

Well the cost to produce/mine an ounce of silver is around $25 - once it hits that level you're really looking at a bargain and I dont think it will hit the negative cost level.  Real downside no more than 15%, while upside is easily in the 50% range (or more depending on global liquidity) so that sounds like a good deal to me!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:44 | 3083016 pupton
pupton's picture

Does anyone else think this guy "LawsofPhysics" is a douchebag for putting his claim of an $8 cost basis in every fucking post?  Regardless of how valid any of his posts may be materially...douche.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:09 | 3083152 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

every fucking post? ,,,,,, his claim of an $8 cost basis

1- I can't claim to read EVERY fucking article on ZH or catch EVERY fucking post that ANYONE posts, but EVERY covers a lot of territory.

2 - Some started when it was $4 and $5/oz - I was late jumping in, in 2007 at $10 & $12/oz - and even though I was buying still at $39/oz, my cost basis is somewhere between $18 & $20/oz. So some saw it (the need for physical metals) earlier than others.

Your ire is mis-directed perhaps?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 15:50 | 3083824 pupton
pupton's picture

I have just happened to see three posts from him in the last couple of days.  3/3 had the same point.  Get it, you're a genious for buying low. 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:16 | 3084478 Orly
Orly's picture

It is a psychological trick to assuage his fear of losing so much money.  It is an internal dialogue wherein he reinforces his desire to be correct in all things, but especially the idea that gold is going straight up, even when the charts are saying otherwise.

He has for the past week told how his dollar cost average of silver is eight dollars and his DCA of gold is 200 dollars...which means he was accumulating when he was seven years old.

I guess that's what makes him smarter than the rest of us.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:39 | 3083284 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



No.  LOP is just using the claim to make a point.  All the movement in PMs is simply noise when one takes a longer view.  Anyone panicking about a smackdown to twenty something an oz of silver is playing a card game and does not share the motivation of a physical PM holder.  I continue to accumulate both g and s on a regular basis, and I really don't pay attention to the so-called "price".  Like LOP, my average cost of acquisition is no where near the current clearing "price", but if it did, I'd just add more to the pile.

What's your gripe, anyway?  It has the smell of envy, but I can't be sure.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 15:56 | 3083851 pupton
pupton's picture

I keep buying and adding to my stack, and I have no idea what my cost basis is.  Probably around $18 or $20 including coin premiums, but it is irrelevant to me, because that isn't why I buy in the first place.

The point of my "gripe" was just that is starts to seem tacky/douchesque that a guy has to keep announcing what a fantastic cost basis he has.  He is probably smarter and richer than me, and I have no quarrel with the content of his ideas, other than the fact that he keeps reminding us of his cost basis.  I guess it is a pet peeve of mine...people bragging, if that's what he's doing.  I don't know the fella well enough to know...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:45 | 3083024 CPL
CPL's picture

You bastards are dogpiling kitco!!!  Now est time of delivery is 18 months as of today.  




I would really like to know.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:28 | 3083194 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

APMEX would be a good place to start.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:05 | 3084448 auric1234
auric1234's picture

What does MSM stand for?


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 19:54 | 3084636 smiler03
smiler03's picture

Surprisingly the Urban Dictionary can be very useful for some ZH help: 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 17:17 | 3088275 auric1234
auric1234's picture

Cool, thanks.


Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:59 | 3082758 The Shootist
The Shootist's picture

Silver's in a bubble. Everyone I know is talking about it and how they're all going to get rich off of it. Oh wait, I mean, I actually know of nobody interested in it who I haven't already given some schooling.  =/

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:09 | 3082828 trav777
trav777's picture

nah, the bubble already popped when the breathless silverbugz doomer goons were screaming to "buy with both fists" when the price was at $49

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:26 | 3082917 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

I bought at $6 -$49, because the world was going to shit.  The only thing that has changed since that top is that we are in deeper shit then before - invalid price signals are all overe the boards, markets are overtly gamed with zero consequence, investments can be stolen and squandered by their trustees with no consequences or recourse for the investors, entire continents are overtly cooking the books to appear solvent, etc. etc.

I buy silver because trust is in serious deflation.  Too bad I have shitty luck with boats.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:43 | 3083013 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

+ 1,000 up arrows...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:40 | 3082993 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

Wow. You're so smart.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 14:29 | 3083458 BailoutBandit
BailoutBandit's picture

If Trav is so rich, why does he care which direction silver goes?  Sounds like a desparate paper trader to me.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 16:49 | 3084049 laozi
laozi's picture

This is interesting. Most new trend goes through bubbles. Look at bitcoin, they had a bubble that popped at $32. Half year later the price was $2.5. Now it is $13.

Most trends have some bubbles on the way up. And I believe Silver is a trend.

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