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Today's Fiscal Cliff Timeline

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The "worst case" in the sequence of events forecasted two days ago in "The Most Critical 48 Hours In The Fiscal Cliff Melodrama Have Begun" is  taking shape, with Obama and Boehner not even remotely close to a compromise despite what the media and fly by night sellside analysts will have you believe. Instead what looks almost certain to happen is a House vote on the GOP-proposed Plan B where it will pass, only to be voted down in the Senate, especially with the pre-veto treatment by Obama. The House vote will be preceded by a Boehner press conference in which he will prepare the general public for this one final PR gambit before the House essentially shuts down for the year, as any hope of further Cliff discussion in the Christmas week can be abandoned. So from a timing standpoint:

  • House republicans meet at 12:00 pm to discuss the final act of the 2012 season of the Fiscal Cliff miniseries.
  • Boehner holds press briefing at 1:15 pm Eastern
  • House scheduled to vote on "Plan B" between 7:30 pm and 9:30 pm

Shortly thereafter Senate votes Plan B down and chaos ensues.

 

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Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:29 | 3082412 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

It must get exhausting to report that nothing is happening day after day.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:32 | 3082421 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I think Ben Shalom and Boehner are going for a joint tanning session.....should be some press on that. 

 

They offered Barry to go along.....but he had stuff to do.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:43 | 3082445 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Who will play Hank "There Are Going To Be Tanks In The Streets & Martial Law if A Blank Check Isn't Immediately Forthcoming" Paulson, and will Jamie Dimon have to explain another lesson of financial reality to his daughter over her breakfast cereal (Cap'n White Truffle Crunch) as a result of this latest episode of American Kabuki Theater?

Inquiring minds want to know.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:39 | 3082448 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

Interviews with average Americans

What do average Americans want from their government?

Lisa Fernstein, age 45, IL

I want the government to do more to further gender equality in this country. I have been a gender equality activist for 25 years, and I remain shocked at the discrimination against women in this country. For a country that is supposed to support equal rights for all citizens, it is ironic that half of the population earns significantly less, is less likely to be accepted into college courses like math, physics and engineering, and is discriminated against in almost every area of our economy. It’s about time that women got equal rights in this male-dominated, patriarchal society. It’s an absolute disgrace that in this day and age, an intelligent capable woman has absolutely no opportunities and no chance of success. This simply has to end

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:49 | 3082479 Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

In the immortal words of King Cool:

stop all your bitchin'

get back in the kitchen

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:13 | 3082555 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

I thought she could make $88/hour from home?  I gotta go to work, and I don't make that much per hour.  Whats to bitch about?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:57 | 3082750 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Do you know why women have smalled feet than men? So that they can stand closer to the sink.

Are you sick of hearing about this fucking "fiscal cliff" idiocy? Wanna get away? http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2012/12/if-i-never-hear-term-fis...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:59 | 3082520 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

I bet she's hot.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:16 | 3082568 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

(not)

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:10 | 3082541 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

MDB: your Swiftian satire is most welcome. thx.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:19 | 3082572 Jake88
Jake88's picture

wtf are you talking about? you're not living inthe same universe as i am.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:05 | 3082809 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

MDB, you are an invaluable resource to this site.

I think that this is the first time you have posted something that is 100% factually correct.  I'm giving you a greenie, and I still wanna hit you in the face, even though I know you're not the problem.  Keep up the bad work.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:25 | 3082884 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

But no comment on how more women are in college compared to me?

 

Or more women are getting doctorates compared to men?

 

No comment on the mancession where a much larger proportion of men have been laid off?

 

And while we are at it, how come women have the right to walk away from being a mother by aborting the child in the first trimester, but men don't have the similar right to walk away from being a dad during the first trimester, and those men aren't even asking to murder the child to do so?

 

 

BTW, your wage gap assertation is a myth.

 

http://heartiste.wordpress.com/2012/04/17/the-pay-gap-is-a-lie/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704415104576250672504707048.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:37 | 3082444 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

all this drama one day ahead of options expiration, I wonder which way out of the money puts or calls these crooks are buying 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:54 | 3083081 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Straddles are getting pretty rich.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 15:19 | 3083693 The trend is yo...
The trend is your friend's picture

Straddles are for dopes like me, these guys don't need staddles when they know the outcome.  How does one think Pelousi's husband trades? using straddles or definitive information

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 16:35 | 3084013 rotagen
rotagen's picture

I have constructed in styrofoam a "fiscal cliff", which drops into a propane and lava lamp powered model volcano, into which I drop all news articles with the term "fiscal cliff"... you should try it, very relaxing.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:33 | 3082427 youngman
youngman's picture

I bet Harry Reid does not even allow the Senate to vote on it....

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:48 | 3082475 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

No doubt. Harry Reid will not even take it to the floor. He has played this same process countless times with other bills and budgets. Which in my view is not healthy for the whole system of governence. He is supposed to at least bring it to the floor for mark up and changes. Send it back to the House with their ammendments/changes. But nothing like this ever happens any longer because of Harry Reid.

Most people just don't even understand the process which is a shame unto itself.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:53 | 3082499 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Didn't you hear?  Dingy Harry adjourned the Senate to go see "Lincoln".

Speilberg wins again.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:59 | 3082521 trav777
trav777's picture

good xmas for anti-white snuff flicks

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:14 | 3082559 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

trav777, I think I will take advantage of timing my blog links to coincide with your remarks, thank you so much!

With the Fiscal Cliff bothering so many Americans (whether you buy any of the other conspiracy stuff or not), I worry much less than I used to...  For I have gold!  Gold is down today you say?   So what?  And even if it were, I have Peru as well...

More developments in Peru:

http://tinyurl.com/d8fhlg9

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:21 | 3082578 Jake88
Jake88's picture

you poor dear.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:41 | 3082675 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

'Django' meets 'Machete'.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:57 | 3082513 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

There is no process to understand. What were once valid processes and laws are now bygones, and we have a government of men and not of laws or rules.

If Harry, Barack and Nancy had been serious about fixing the fiscal dilemma they would have done it while Dems held all the power in 2009 and 2010. Of course, then they would be held accountable for the outcome. Now the Repukes have a choice: hold to principles of fiscal prudence and be blamed by the MSM for everything that goes wrong, or completely cave (commit suicide, that is), let the Dems have what they want, and then watch everything collapse so they can say "I told you so!" In which case they'd still be blamed by the MSM, since nothing Barack does is ever wrong or ineffective.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:01 | 3082526 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Ben'dover' Bernanke, Hairy Reed, John Boner, and O'banger have a special gift in store for the USA this holiday season....cliff diving sodomy.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:34 | 3082435 Jason T
Jason T's picture

the payroll tax expiratin alone is going to knock at least 1% of GDP growth.  

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:50 | 3082484 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

1% of GDP "growth."

FIFY

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:08 | 3082542 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I don't see how we lose GDP growth.  The current US economy is about $15T.  If the government taxes everything at 50%, you still have an economy of $15T because $7.5T is government spend and $7.5T is consumer spend.  The taxes and government spending BS only determines how the $15T gets apportioned.  GDP growth comes from actually producing more stuff and I don't see any discussion by the government on increasing the amount of stuff produced in the US.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:42 | 3082684 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Look up GDP in the wiki.  The equation is there.  Govt Spending is explicitly part of the equation.  So is personal consumption and gross investment, both of which are hit if taxes rise.

That's the source of the calculation of what reduces GDP.  Math.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:57 | 3082749 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Not really "Math" anymore than if I personally decide that 1+1=3 and develop a set of definitions based on that "fact."

Seriously - GDP is whatever anybody wants to define it as. That doesn't make it meaningful, and if it isn't meaningful, why would anyone care?

The root word of "statistics" is "statist."

Look it up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statism

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:54 | 3083079 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

You missed the point:

If GDP = GovSpend + PersonalSpend + Investment then here are some scenarios:

Low Tax GDP = $2T GS + $10T PS + $3T Inv = $15T GDP

Mid Tax GDP = $4T GS + $8T PS + $3T Inv = $15T GDP

High Tax GDP = $7T GS + $6T PS + $2T Inv = $15T GDP

Socialist GDP = $10T GS + $4T PS + $1T Inv = $15T GDP

Communist GDP = $14T GS + $1T PS = $15T GDP

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:27 | 3083221 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

The point you're missing is that the fiscal cliff includes both tax increases AND spending reductions.  Think that through. 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:36 | 3082441 Pharming
Pharming's picture

And the band played on as they rearranged the deck chairs on the Titanic...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:39 | 3082447 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The bridge watch is polishing the brass to the music of the band.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:37 | 3082442 CaptainAmerica
CaptainAmerica's picture

Harry Reid is busy working on his tan

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:38 | 3082446 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Shit eating vampires can't go in the sun...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:40 | 3082449 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

If my country were about to plunge into the fiscal abyss the first thing I would do is go on Holiday. What a fucking first class bunch of losers these guys are.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:50 | 3082480 Pharming
Pharming's picture

Go on Holiday and GO SHOPPING!  That's what will turn this around...just like after 9/11.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:53 | 3082495 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Ask not what your country can buy for you - ask what you can buy for your country - with no down, low terms, and no payments until March!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 13:36 | 3083268 Darksky
Darksky's picture

March 2015?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:45 | 3082450 Paper CRUSHer
Paper CRUSHer's picture

 

 

"Go to hell Boehner......listen boy you go ahead do it,do it ya crazy son of a bitch,pull that f***in trigger boy ya ain't gat nothin'........."

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-eKG2L8BKJcg/Te60zlqJrVI/AAAAAAAAE10/m0b8ZayWhpA/s1600/OShooting_Uncle_Sam-500x367.jpg

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:59 | 3082523 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

I suppose that started as a knife fight, since Barry brought a gun. Imagine that, the Prez advocating the use of guns! I thought he only did drones with Hellfire missiles!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:40 | 3082453 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Black Friday?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:41 | 3082455 becky quick and...
becky quick and her beautiful mouth's picture

triple witching tomorrow. hahahahahah

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:44 | 3082461 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

I smell smoke. Somebody hand me my fiddle.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 15:24 | 3083722 monad
monad's picture

Its a trick. Get an axe.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:44 | 3082462 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

High Noon. Then 3:10 to Yuma.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:46 | 3082468 Kina
Kina's picture

This is entirely a side show put on by the Banksters and nothing more.

It makes no difference at all. They game the system either way, and distract everybody with a make believe dilema as if it really mattered, as if one side was different from the other.

These cockroaches will create any number of dilemas, major issues as though the are really really important, simply to keep the circus playing while they continue raping any and everything.

 

 

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:52 | 3082494 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

Exactly. They know the masses will simply listen to the 5 second headline and ignore the details.   The GDP n umber today beat expectations but it was due to alot of govt spending and inventories...you won't get the 2nd part in the soundbite or most headlines.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:55 | 3082502 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

so it's the banks and not incompetent self serving politicians? 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:55 | 3082509 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

That's called a false dichotomy.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:03 | 3082529 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Wake the fuck up, tell me, where did the "printed fiat" come from to support their campaigns?  

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:54 | 3082505 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

It's all a con, pure and simple. Tear down confidence, build it back up. Over and over.

+1

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:47 | 3082473 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Maybe stocks are about to plunge simply because they are 30% overpriced and we are in a continuing recession/depression?

 

I love the assumed cause and effect with fiscal cliff

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:50 | 3082483 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

I vote for chaos, most constructive thing that could happen.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:22 | 3082583 toady
toady's picture

Exactly! Put it in overdrive and punch it! Jump right off the cliff!

Let the chips fall where they may.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:29 | 3082943 lairdminor
lairdminor's picture

Agreed. Bring it on.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:53 | 3082496 phoolish
phoolish's picture

Considering that this supposed be like the end of the economy or something, no one seems to give a rat's-hinny about it.  Where's the DRAMA.  I want Hanky Paulson.

Are the HFT's so fully in control of 'the market' (LOL) that it no longer matters?

 

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 10:59 | 3082519 Pharming
Pharming's picture

Go VIX!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:06 | 3082537 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Maybe WB7 can do this Fiscal Cliff thing as an X-Factor, The Voice, Dancing with The Stars, or American Idol parody...

Or just some good ole fashion girlie mud rasslin'

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:21 | 3082577 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Off topic here folks.

Could I take the oportunity here to say thank you, I thank Tyler and his staff.  I thank each and every poster here for their input even if I dont agree with you, and can I say and I dont think I am the only one that this place ZH has been something of an experience as well as a help over the past couple of years.  Thank you all for opening the eyes of many to what is really going on out there.

I wish you all a great christmas, and I hope we all see 2013 better than this year.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:23 | 3082590 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

Inthemix96,

I share your sentiment.

ZH is an island of sanity in an ocean of stupidity.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:28 | 3082605 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Zap Powerz,

It is but a small thing to say thanks for what ZH has learned us all.  I really mean it when I say thank you all, making sense of this is hard even for clever folk, and with ZH's help, and folks like you we understand a little more every day.

I will toast ZH tonight with a double Glenlivet 18 year single malt, and you all, whoever you are...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:26 | 3082594 Jake88
Jake88's picture

every time a bell rings an angel gets its wings

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:21 | 3082582 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I wonder if this show will do any better than Edward Wood's "Plan 9."

From WIKI; "For years the film played on television in relative obscurity, until 1980, when authors Michael Medved and Harry Medved dubbed Plan 9 from Outer Space the "worst movie ever made". Wood was posthumously awarded the Medveds' Golden Turkey Award as the worst director ever."

"Golden Turkey" is just the start of what Bain-er (i.e., Boehner) should get for his acting.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:22 | 3082584 Zap Powerz
Zap Powerz's picture

To state the obvious:

The USA is one fucked up cuntry.

For the most part (present company excluded) the USA is full of a bunch of semi illiterate, closed minded, drug addicted, entertainment addicted morons that couldnt figure their way out of a wet paper bag.

And the people they choose to lead them are even worse!

So, we have a bunch of idiots that are led by even bigger idiots and they also have the most powerful military in the world.  Im sure nothing bad will happen.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:29 | 3082609 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Let's be clear, Tyler. Actual chaos won't ensue, but media driven, scare the hell out of them nonsense will.

What will actually happen is that tax rates will go up somewhat and spending will be slowed down, somewhat.  And both will almost certainly be reversed in some manner and degree sometime next year.  It would all be a yawn if we weren't watching Dancing With TPTB...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:09 | 3082832 The Joker
The Joker's picture

Kinda like the boy who opens his Christmas presents early, I must admit, it'll be sadly anti-climactic. It would be funny if it weren't so pathetic...... Oh what the heck, I'll laugh anyway. HA! HA! HA! HA! HAAAA!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:31 | 3082616 AgShaman
AgShaman's picture

"There's a hole in the bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza"

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:32 | 3082619 De minimus
De minimus's picture

The plan is to crash the economy and rebuild it in the Marxist model.

To rebuild it the way you want it, you have to break it in such way that you can blame others for it, no problem with that since the media are all about Marx, at lease if they benefit from it and they will.

As is always the case, there will be Marxists who are more equal than other Marxists. There will always be steak for them, you just won't see it reported anywhere, or talked about out loud because bad things will happen to those who do.

You will be otherwise free, to do what they say in the new democratic state they create.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:32 | 3082623 Meatballs
Meatballs's picture

Chaos Bitchez!

 

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:41 | 3082674 Opinionated Ass
Opinionated Ass's picture

All this fiscal cliff drama is silly. Kind of like making a huge fuss over bailing out one broom closet on the Titanic.

If both sides cave completely, the annual reduction in the deficit is tiny compared to the $7 trillion (GAAP) deficit this year alone per John Williams of Shadowstats.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=4m6mVthGRxY

This baby's going down. Grab your life jacket.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:11 | 3082842 The Joker
The Joker's picture

Silliness conjured up by clowns.  Problem is, these clowns aren't funny.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:41 | 3082677 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

Buck Foner, and his evil twin by a different mother....Buck Fernankie.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:43 | 3082683 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

circa 1979

The affidavit also revealed that some of the reputed mobsters felt they had control over at least one top Nevada official. Harry Reid, chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission, has said federal authorities felt he was the "Mr. Clean" referred to in wiretapped conversations, But Reid has denied any connection to organized crime.

hhttp://news.google.com/newspapers?id=wEIrAAAAIBAJ&sjid=h54FAAAAIBAJ&pg=5...

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:55 | 3082742 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

They aired V for Vendetta on China public television.  It appears we forgot who is boss here, the people or the government.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:56 | 3082745 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

All I know is, On The Road opens in selected cities Dec. 21. W00T!

Fuck the fiscal cliff.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 11:58 | 3082759 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Buck Fernanke said he doesn't have the tools for the fiscal cliff ... oh well.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:04 | 3082792 larz
larz's picture

Are both Obammy and Boener (sp) both tearing up all misty eyed quivering lipped on these cliff discussions?

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 12:16 | 3082868 The Joker
The Joker's picture

5................4..................3..................2..................1....BOOM! 

Just Kidding!

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 15:24 | 3083176 monad
monad's picture

Congress' A plan is that the world comes to an end before they have to do their jobs. When the world doesn't end tomorrow they are going to become desperate, scramble to blame moron Huckabee's insane dog... then 12/24 is the 100th anniversary for the 16A and IRSlaves. Spike the Koolaid while there is still time.

Thu, 12/20/2012 - 17:33 | 3084158 MiltonFriedmans...
MiltonFriedmansNightmare's picture

What's up with the delay?

I sense that we are headed toward the "cliff" at 200mph+

Bring it Bitchez!

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