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VIX Decoupling Band Snaps Even As SPX Still Has A Ways To Go
A mere 7 hours ago in "Just in case there is no deal" as is now the case, we noted that there was a considerable divergence between the equity market's roiling exuberance (and the accompanying over-confidence of the naive watchers) and the occurrences in the implied volatility world. VIX had decoupled rather notably from stocks (and its term structure had flattened as short-term protection was heavily bid). Sure enough, at the first sign of things not quite going to Plan (A, B, or Z), equity futures have collapsed amid a total farce of a market liquidity to recouple with volatility. With quad-witching tomorrow, we can only imagine the efforts the algos will be going to tonight to keep this afloat.
S&P 500 futures recouple down to VIX
Meanwhile S&P 500 futures are anchored to VWAP (but unable to break above)...
Of course, the whole point of this superficial equity-to-reality divergence was to fool - very successfully judging by the flash crash - both relatively smart market participants, what little of them is left, as well as superficial sidelines' commentators with zero trading experience.
People are freaking out way too much about the "collapse" of the fiscal cliff talks. The market gets it, once again.
— Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) December 20, 2012
Chart: Bloomberg
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Holy Crapplesachnapples
Quad Witching!
What more could anyone in their right mind want for fun tomorrow?
And some how, some where in the far back reaches of my befuddled mind I remember a story/news item from early this year about a bazillion gold options written/purchased/whatever at the $1700 level. Now what might that gotta do with the last few days if accurate, eh?
You wanna know something?
You took the words right out of my mouth.
I've been saying exactly the same thing for close to a decade.
Great minds must think alike.
http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2012/12/yesterday-i-hiked-ten-miles-through_20.html
To all those short right now...Merry Christmas
you know, i dont feel like buying a shirt but for some reason i do feel like buying a set of tits....silicone...
merry christmas..
I miss the "I Just Pooped" t-shirt chick-what can I say-I like my eggs "Danny Thomas Style"
With the farse that was Mon and Tues many, myself included, are hoping just to get back to where we were last Fri. Too bad for those who covered. VIX was the key to be patient.
Baltic Dry Index sure looks "bullish" too.
@knuckles
What more could I want? Let me see...Jamiefalls down a manhole and is never seen again, Lloyd decides to join his god, Timmay is unmasked a client 9 at a young men's escort service, BernanQE doing a perp walk....just for starters.
Don't forget Corozine in the perp walk.
Nah, he is found mysteriously hanging with two bullet wounds to the back of the head. Police will call it a suicide.
Algoplexy
Fiscal Cliff? Or fiscal shift?
Or fecal sniff?
Or sneak a fifth?
Tomorrow will be the fucking poster boy for goal seek.
trade away cocktards. you'll be selling used cars by Wednesday...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVUxgqH-y4s
That VIX double headfake today was great! I have been smoked so many times for not waiting for moves like that to confirm/
Mayans, it's all about the Mayans.
</s>
Trading will be closed Friday due to the world ending...... Sorry put holders
Aww rat-fuck! Snake bitten again.
My charts show major head and shoulder flaking. Watch the tail spin triple reverse. I've never seen anything like it. Be careful out there.
Good thing I'm stocked up on reefer, Cheetos and Schlitz.
Heading to Riyadh in the morning. Wish me luck.
Oh fuck, the charts are upside down, never mind . Sorry
Don't freeze your ass off, and be safe. Make sure you leave your Christmas cards properly stowed, and bring lots of booze/
Remember Sandy, futures were over 1% short with rallies on open. Need more market correlation for a major sell.
The money printers you rotten a-holes, one day, maybe next year, your bs won't float.
Markets are overbought. Everyone is jockeying for position in 2013. Fund managers are making the same mistake.
They are catching falling knifes/ The markets don't recognize (fiscal/calendar) years. The markets will fall in q-1 and these guys are positioned too early.
here comes act 8 of the kabuki theatre. stock market panic. u bet your ass it will be down 200 at 6am. more importantly it COULD be down 7000 points by noon. so tune in to squak box followed by the halftime fast money guys followed by whatthefuckever followed by the closing bell. stay fucking glued all day. piss your pants if you have to and don't move until after mad money. Thaaaaaaanks
-CNBS management
Maria B had the balls to call some congressman "incompetent" today while she interviewd the guy- talk about the fat-ass calling the kettle black
So we should expect rule 39 to be in effect upon the morn?
Stop watching cnbc. Sell the TV and cut off the cable.
It's been working for me since 2001. No TV since. I love it. I don't allow myself to be brainwashed.
Oy
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2012/12/hey-joe-where-y...
Maybe the bond vigilantes were around all along busy BUYING the sovereign bond market, waiting to sell the bonds to the panicked herds at just the right time. Is it the mother of all bond bull traps?
This Black Friday will be the Blackest!
Obviously a racist remark aimed at Obama....a knock on your door will be arriving forthwith.
Gonna be a late night boys. looks like i picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.
This is SO exciting! I can hardly wait another 7 hours!
More brandy!
(Maybe I'll get back to Tuesday...)
VIXie, you manipulated slut!
This is promising: http://scharts.co/Zz3trV
finally VXX (not quite VIX) vs SPY (not quite S&P500 or ES) is looking to follow sensible (prior measured long-term) correlations.
19th dec, 144.56 spy high, 28.12 vxx low
16 nov , 133.75 spy low , 37.22 vxx high
power ratio aka "equivalent etf" -3.60727007217
so VXX in this time-frame is acting like an unleveraged -3.6 ETF on SPY or 3.6x bearish ETF rather than FAZ alleged 3.0 bearish or SPXU alleged 2.0 bearish.
On this time scale http://scharts.co/U8BMi0 I'd say it's looking like
5 months ago 136.97 & 51.96 vs 143.65 & 31.96 dec 24th (admittedly post-reverse-split price, not what actually happened on that day 4:1 conversion):
-10.2060246675 or 10.2x bearish ETF equivalent, far exceeding FAZ, RSW, SPXU.
If this should remain consistent & SPY drops to 120 from 143.65, this looks like:
0.835x of SPY or -16.4% , 6.26x multipler on VXX , bringing it up from 31.96 to 200.20 without any stock splitting. IF the ratio drops back down to 4.0 because 10.2 is so extreme this still puts VXX to 65.74/share unleveraged.
No use of margin, no use of options.
http://flic.kr/p/daxu6H : so... takers?