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Guest Post: The Upside Of The Fiscal Cliff

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Facing reality is positive. That's the upside to the fiscal cliff.

 
There are two definite upsides to the fiscal cliff:
 
1. We are finally starting a national discussion of spending-taxation trade-offs
 
2. We are at last starting to (grudgingly) accept there is no free lunch, what I call the Free Lunch Fantasy of limitless borrowing at near-zero interest rates: taxes for upper-income wage-earners will revert to previous levels while those drawing Federal dollars must accept reductions in spending.
 
The last decade's fantasy that we could borrow our way to prosperity while lowering taxes on upper-income earners (because it's so cheap to borrow trillions at near-zero interest rates) is finally running into reality-based resistance: interest on all that debt is starting to squeeze the spending everyone wants, and long-term rates might rise despite the Federal Reserve's constant intervention.
 
That would eventually raise interest costs paid by the Federal government.
 
How can interest rates rise if the Fed is buying much of the Federal Debt?
 
The first part of the answer is to accept the fiscal consequences of the Baby Boom entering Social Security and Medicare at the rate of 10,000 retirees a day: Federal spending will rise far faster than tax revenues, dwarfing the relatively minor spending cuts being discussed.
 
Notice how unprecedented the Boomer generation is demographically:
 
As correspondent Michael Goodfellow explained in Where There Is Ruin II: Social Security (July 25, 2006):

Now of course, retirees are also dying, so you might think this is only half the story. However, the people who die are, on the average, 15 years older than the new retirees. So when the number of retirees surges in 2011, the number of deaths is still from the pre-boomer group, and stays roughly constant.In other words, Social Security and Medicare outlays continue to increase for 15 years, until the number of retirees dying rises to match the number of new retirees.

Simply put, the retirement and healthcare systems were not designed to match the nation's demographics, nor was Medicare designed to limit costs, which continue to rise faster than inflation, despite various cost-saving measures.
 
Combine these trends with stagnating wages and employment and you get a triple-whammy: soaring number of retirees, rising Medicare costs per retiree and a stagnating tax base.
 
Federal spending and thus borrowing will rise unless the promises made are slashed.
 
This sets up an increasingly unstable dynamic: the Federal deficit of $1.3 trillion will continue to rise, forcing the Fed to increase its balance sheet as it buys hundreds of billions of dollars of newly issued Treasury bonds. Is there no upper limit on the Fed's purchases of Treasury bonds? Even if there is no financial limit, there is a political limit, as the Fed's policies will be recognized as counter-productive failures as the 2013 recession kicks in.
 
The Fed's political room to maneuver is shrinking, and its policy of keeping interest rates at near-zero by buying unlimited quantities of mortgages and bonds has limits. Once the markets sniff these limits, yields on long-term bonds will rise, pushing up borrowing costs. The Fed can play around with yields by selling long-term bonds and buying short-term bonds, but these Operation Twist manipulations also have limits.
 
The Fed's purchases of Federal debt enabled the Free Lunch fantasy. Rather than let the market price Federal debt higher, which would have set limits on Federal borrowing, the Fed's purchases of Treasury bonds suppressed the recognition that there was a cost to essentially unlimited Federal borrowing.
 
All these policies that enabled the Free Lunch Fantasy are reaching financial and/or political limits. The fiscal cliff is one expression of this recognition, and it is very positive that Americans are finally facing up to the personal costs of dealing with reality: higher taxes and lower Federal spending are no longer abstractions to be borne by others. We will pay more taxes and we will get fewer benefits/Federal contracts, and these reductions in income will negatively impact the economy.
 
Facing reality is positive. That's the upside to the fiscal cliff.
 

My new book Why Things Are Falling Apart and What We Can Do About It is now available in print and Kindle editions--10% to 20% discounts.

 

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Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:49 | 3087424 evolutionx
evolutionx's picture

24 Reasons For Gold

There are many reasons for Gold. First and foremost: Preservation of Wealth. The illusionary paper wealth will implode in the next few years. The initial trigger will be the collapse of the world’s reserve currency – the US dollar. The financial system is unlikely to survive in its present form. Gold has been money for 5,000 years and will continue to be the only currency with integrity.

 

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/english-news/11038-24-reasons-for-gold

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:55 | 3087455 rotagen
rotagen's picture

If you say "reality" and "fiscal cliff" in the same sentence then I'm going to excercise my right to print this out and wipe my ass with the whitened cellulose.

There's nothing real about fake debt incurred by a fake government generated by fake money printed by fake people (organized crime cartel called the Federal Reserve).

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:57 | 3087464 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

"We are at last starting to (grudgingly) accept there is no free lunch"

 

by "we" are you including those with Obama Phones?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:00 | 3087475 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Nah ~ We're working on the Echo [Chamber] Boom at the moment...

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:25 | 3087579 Manthong
Manthong's picture

I am by nature an optimist, but in this regard I feel as if I have advanced flesh eating disease, all my limbs must be amputated and my face reconstructed without anesthetic, and it is not at all certain that I will survive to live a disfigured, limbless life of pain and struggle.

Outside of that, now that I have faced up to the situation, I am pretty upbeat.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:17 | 3087536 GottaBKiddn
GottaBKiddn's picture

Exactly!

"Facing reality" in this instance is the regular people having to pay the consequences of the upper class living in a economic fantasy. The only people who can find something positive in that are those who aren't going to have to struggle to feed their families. Thanks, Sir Charles, for helping us to have a happy holiday, even though we know that the "Fiscal Stiff" is just for the little people.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 15:18 | 3087827 SamAdams1234
SamAdams1234's picture

The reality is the upper class no longer want to abide by the bargain they made: in exchange for paying more taxes to support  the bottom, the bottom would be content with Lohan stories and plastic chinese trinkets while the upper classses could rule. If the bargain is being re-negociated, I vote for making the upper classes bacon. Everything tastes better with bacon.

 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:33 | 3087500 Fredo Corleone
Fredo Corleone's picture

"[T]axes for upper-income wage-earners will revert to previous levels while those drawing Federal dollars must accept reductions in spending."

Correction: "Those drawing Federal dollars must accept reductions in the increase of spending." 

The government will, of course, increase taxes on the so-called "upper-income" wage-earners ( "upper," by political definition an arbitary term; thus, quite flexible in terms of parameters ). That said, when was the last time there was enacted a veritable, genuine baseline reduction in any governmental budget: No increase whatsoever in spending from the prior fiscal year, but an actual reduction from the prior FY's level of spending ? What is currently being deliberated is simply a reduction in the rate of increase in spending, as opposed to a reduction in the level of spending itself -- that, a foregone conclusion as it is, will continue to rise in absolute terms. 

The current activities in Washington are but a dress rehersal for that which is to come a decade or more hence, when the financial liabilities coming due will be of a far greater magnitude.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:51 | 3087426 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Despite all the screaming and shouting; going over the 'fiscal cliff' would actually be the best thing for the USA's future fiscal soundness...

 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:10 | 3087509 Jason T
Jason T's picture

That's why I call it a Fiscal Ravine.. and warning it's getting dark soon and the wolves and coyotes are coming out.  So raise taxes and cut spending .. and stop importing so much crap and make more things here in America again.  

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:15 | 3087531 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What Britney wants... Britney gets...

~~~

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zrffw0qYRO0

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:31 | 3087617 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

There is no such thing as "the USA's future fiscal soundness". The belief that there is some sort of "solution" that exists to create fiscal soundness shows a lack of understanding of our monetary system. Timing of the collapse and "what comes next" are valid questions to consider, not "how do we fix this".

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 15:23 | 3087851 j0nx
j0nx's picture

Enough said. /thread.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 15:00 | 3087750 Hard Assets
Hard Assets's picture

You are probably correct.

I don't know who advises the 2 chief clowns but working out 2 trillion over 10 years leaves them 1 trillion per year short.

My understanding of the "fiscal cliff" is a "hit" of about $600 billion leaving a deficit of about the same. Seems more of a fiscal challenge as opposed to cliff.

Is it possible that the political theatre we are witnessing is only and exactly that? Is it possible that it has been realized that trillion dollar ++ deficits cannot be financed anymore?

Has it finally been decided (by whom?) that the runaway debt of $16 T, that no one wants part of anymore, with rising interest rates, is the REAL "fiscal cliff"?   

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:51 | 3087434 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Now that the elites have everybodies attention squarely focused on gun control and the fiscal cliff I have one question.......what are they doing while we are distracted?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:01 | 3087474 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Prepping the pleb virus. The issue with the virus is getting the people out of residental areas to die, so clean up is easier. 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:53 | 3087445 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

We have been told for a decade - "Clinton tax rates good, Bush tax cuts bad"

So let ALL Bush tax cuts expire.  It is the only way to get back to the coveted Clinton rates.  The left will scream bloody murder, the right will just scream.

Then let's get federal govt spending back just to 2008 levels (which is what every American is doing individually - so government can do the same)

Deficit problem solved.   Entitlements to be dealt with in 2013.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 19:09 | 3088647 fattail
fattail's picture

I used to care about the deficit and the debt... until they both became to large, to unwieldy, and blatantly unsustainable.   to see the gov't use  their unlimited borrowing and taxing power to target our constitutional freedoms and liberties all to bring this country under the rule of the fascist kleptocracy and politically connected cronies, makes me wonder who I should be rooting for when I watch the news.

The fiscal cliff will not be solved in any way that will bring the required austerity and reduction in the size, scope and power of the federal government. 

So I say, let it burn.  Let the politicians borrow more enormous  sums of money for more freebies for the moochers, parasites, and policital cronies.  Borrow more money, and keep borrowing, the bigger the implosion the better...  maybe at that time we can repudiate our debt and start over.

 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:54 | 3087446 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Always there has to be some optimist looking for the upside. Shit. Me, I am sticking wih Plan A.

http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-day-aint-over-with-y...

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:54 | 3087451 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Nice little trough in the early thirties....seems people had other things on their minds like lunch and shelter. Children can be expensive........

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:54 | 3087452 eclectic syncretist
Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:56 | 3087456 suteibu
suteibu's picture

We should be having a national discussion on the evils of taxation altogether.  The fact that we are talking about rates reminds me of the old joke about prostitutes,

Man to woman, "Will you have sex with me for a million dollars?"

Woman, "Sure!"

Man, "Will you have sex with me for one dollar?"

Woman, upset,  "What do you think I am, a whore?"

Man, "We have settled that question.  Now we are just haggling over the price."

Well, we know we are all whores.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:00 | 3087473 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Hey, Tarzan: we only need one freaking law, the LAW OF THE JUNGLE.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:03 | 3087487 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Right.  How about a 72,536 page tax code that even the people hired to enforce do not understand.  That working out for you okay, champ?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:13 | 3087521 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hey Rex are you picking fights? I thought you were a Catholic South Park watching pacifist. ;->

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:17 | 3087540 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Nah, I just love ridiculous extremes. And Tarzan.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:16 | 3087535 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Nice debate, a microcosm of our national situation of social degeneration and economic elitism.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:21 | 3087560 econature
econature's picture

The people who wrote it don't understand it either.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 13:58 | 3087468 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I HAVE A SOLUTION TO SOCIAL SECURITY!

The Treasury can mint unlimited coinage without the Fed.  Pay the seniors in change!

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:00 | 3087472 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

Excellent post.  Could not agree more.  The cliff is the best of all the options on the table.  It would be a step in restoring faith in our government and our currency.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:02 | 3087476 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

I think our socio-economic system and its associated government are very faith based.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:02 | 3087482 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Why do we all have to go over the cliff?  Can't we just throw a few over and the rest of us divide up their stuff?  I think that is basicly Obama's plan.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:26 | 3087587 viahj
viahj's picture

and that is why the politicos are furiously trying to avoid it with some sort of compromise.  how absurd is that?

\sarc because i believe that this is all kubuki and we're going over the so-called cliff and even then, the changes going into effect will not do squat to stop the economic and fiscal implosions.  just as planned. 

oh and why they are distrzacting us with gun and cliff debates, they are positioning troops and hardware.  war is coming.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 15:00 | 3087751 kridkrid
kridkrid's picture

It only restores "faith" in those who don't understand how the system works. The same thing is happening everywhere. And it's all we got, really... Faith. Faith takes many forms: blind optimism, normalcy bias, American exceptionalism, stupidity. I'm guessing that faith will be restored a few more times as we continue to circle the drain.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:02 | 3087480 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Best thing to happen, IMHO, is to go right over and into sequestration. The MIC will never loosen its grip unless forced to. Same for entitlements.

There is no critical thought when all energy is spent defending an entrenched position.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 16:38 | 3088112 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Defense spending cuts tend to get suspended during wartime and/or expansion of wartime.  Just sayin'.  

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:04 | 3087489 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Next Few Days Particularly Crucial: 'Plan B' Collapses, Hope Fading, Consumer Confidence Plunges Sharply, And Unemployment Checks Stop Dec. 29!!

http://investmentwatchblog.com/next-few-days-particularly-crucial-plan-b-collapses-hope-fading-consumer-confidence-plunges-sharply-and-unemployment-checks-stop-dec-29/

 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:05 | 3087496 Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

Why the desperation to raise taxes on ANYONE???

CUT SPENDING - period.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:13 | 3087523 Joshua_D
Joshua_D's picture

Exactly. Stop the fracking spending.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 17:47 | 3088358 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Old folks vote. Hard to take away their candy without paying the price come election-time.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:09 | 3087507 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Delusional. If you replaced "US" with any country in Europe it would be the same situation and it would make you laugh out loud: "At least Greece/Spain/Italy/etc is now talking about its spending and debt." Yeah, OK.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:10 | 3087511 Joshua_D
Joshua_D's picture

"We will pay more taxes and we will get fewer benefits ..."

 

How about this. We give the finger to FedGov and tell them to default. We're all going to get fewer benefits, but I'd rather not pay more for less.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:18 | 3087541 Catch-22
Catch-22's picture

CROCK OF SHIT !

 

“The Fed can play around with yields… , but these Operation Twist manipulations also have limits.”

 

Have limits ???  The line in the sand keeps being redrawn since 2008 !!!

 

When they get cornered the slimy little weasels change the rules of the game on everyone…

 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:20 | 3087550 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

The real cliff has already been gone over. It's like Wile E. walking on air momentarily with the ACME weight in hand, and then he chucks that so he doesn't weigh so much, stupidly thinking he'll be able to not fall, but he's going to fall anyway whether he has the weight in hand or not. 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:31 | 3087611 allocater
allocater's picture

Social Security is in surplus until 2036. Then you just require the rich to pay as much as the middle class (flat tax) and it is solvent for hundreds of years. (At the moment, the rich pay a lower rate than the middle class)

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 15:27 | 3087861 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Everyone pays the same rate. Up to the cap, which coincides with the benefit cap on the other end. If you want to have the high income people pay the tax on all their income, then they will get a much, much larger benefit too.

But you probably already knew that.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 16:40 | 3088115 allocater
allocater's picture

Yes, but you could only raise the cap for pay-in and not for pay-out.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 18:39 | 3100049 odatruf
odatruf's picture

Sigh

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:35 | 3087634 Eric L. Prentis
Eric L. Prentis's picture

Big business and financial elite shills always mention the drain on Social Security, because of the Baby Boom generation, to scare us into cutting entitlements. President Reagan and Speaker O'Neill fixed the Social Security Baby Boom problem, with the Social Security Reform Act of 1983. Period.

The real problem is President Obama’s unprecedented US sovereign-debt spending over the past four years—including, massive federal budget deficits of -8% to -10% of GDP, and the Fed monetizing debt by electronically printing money, to save the TBTF insolvent banks—TOTALING OVER SEVEN TRILLION DOLLARS!

The financial elite and big business have eaten everyone’s lunch. To learn more, please read:

“WORLD-MARKET-STATE vs. DEMOCRACY: Why We Should Go Over the Fiscal Cliff.”

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:39 | 3087656 TuPhat
TuPhat's picture

More garbage from Charles Hugh Smith.  I quit reading when he tried to blame it on Social Security.  That's lame.  Most other Govmint programs bring in less revenue and spend more.  Especially the military.  But we wouldn't have any friends in the middle east if we weren't over there killing their children, so we can't stop that.  Can't stop medicare or medicaid and get medical costs under control can we.  It's all my fault because I have paid into SocSec all my working life.  Don't forget Bush told all the illegals they would qualify for Social Security if they lived here for at least four years even if they had no evidence of a job and had never paid any taxes.  Stop that crap and then talk about cutting other things.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 15:16 | 3087791 socalbeach
socalbeach's picture

You missed this gem then,

"The Fed's political room to maneuver is shrinking, and its policy of keeping interest rates at near-zero by buying unlimited quantities of mortgages and bonds has limits. Once the markets sniff these limits, yields on long-term bonds will rise, pushing up borrowing costs. The Fed can play around with yields by selling long-term bonds and buying short-term bonds, but these Operation Twist manipulations also have limits."

How could the Fed's buying of unlimited quantities of debt have limits?

And he has Operation Twist backwards, unless he thinks the Fed would want to unwind it, but why would they?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:48 | 3087693 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

I expect the credit rating to be upgraded.

In spite of the political bickering, the economic problems will be addressed in a positive manner, unlike Europe.

Real decisions, the kind that don't get people re-elected.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:52 | 3087714 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Oh yeh, they will face the fiscal cliff, and then announce higher taxes, spending cuts based upon re-jigging some Soc Sec and Medicaid algos....and then
Obaa announces a $1T "stimulus" plan (Chris matthews get stimulated) and BenDover prints another $1T just to be sure unemployment does get offcially reported over 7%.

Problem solved...let's party !

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 15:36 | 3087893 Dennis Mack Gyvner
Dennis Mack Gyvner's picture

As a (one of millions) "boomer", what did Uncle do with all those funds (FICA) that WE paid in ?

Where was the "Lock Box" ?

In theory the money should be there to fund our checks. Should we sue for mis-appropriation or grand theft ?

I say, Jail those who "OK'd" the theft and seize their assets to pay back the SS fund. Now that's a redistribution I could live with !

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 18:19 | 3088497 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Mostly wars, tax cuts, and military spending.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 20:50 | 3088906 Element
Element's picture

I thought those two upsides were apparent last year.

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