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Markets & Macro - 2008 And Today

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It seems left, right, and center we hear that fundamentals are currently supportive of equities. However, dismal earnings outlooks (and historicals) aside, we have seen the current pattern of macro-economic data 'outperforming' economists' expectations while stocks don't appear to fully play along before - it was mid-2008. As is clear from the chart below, the rapidity of the collapse in macro data should be greatly concerning to any and all who think there is even a possibility we go over the cliff - as, for sure, economic expectations are not priced for that at all (and stocks for at worst a modest macro weakening only).

 

The last time we saw a divergence between macro (higher) and stocks (flat to lower) was Summer 2008...

 

Data: Bloomberg

 


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Fri, 12/21/2012 - 21:20 | Link to Comment A Lunatic
A Lunatic's picture

It's all downhill from here...........

Sat, 12/22/2012 - 09:53 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Here's a chart/crayon drawing I made in 2009.

 

http://i48.tinypic.com/16lwj8k.jpg

 

I updated it about a year ago.

 

http://i49.tinypic.com/2d1v9uc.jpg

 

Any questions?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 21:33 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

QE is providing the banks with an endless backstop. They are not failing this time around. It's going to be NIRP that eventually takes down the insurance companies and the fed has to know that is coming as well. This is very simple. Either the idea that O wants to takeover the market is real, and so he lets the insurance companies fail and dangles a gov't sponsored alternative to the investment/insurance industry or the fed keeps throwing money at everyone until we die by inflation.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 22:30 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

I think you are refering to the pension paradox. Those bozos assumed 8% compounded returns forever in setting up their plans. We'll since 2007, that hasn't happened. The FED won't raise rate anytime soon. So, pension plans WILL blow up. Will the FED or Obozo do anything about it? Nope. Maybe they'll encourage the aged to start eating cat food, because, that's all they'll be able to afford.

Sat, 12/22/2012 - 00:03 | Link to Comment dmger14
dmger14's picture

Sweet justice for setting up the ponzi scheme and screwing the younger generations.  Thought they'd skip the bill but will pay along with the kids.

Sat, 12/22/2012 - 11:01 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I think we'd better enact tougher gun laws on our younger generation....cause when they figure out what we're doing to them....they're gonna kill us.

 

I feel a little better hearing that Smokin Joe is on the job, but I'll feel a lot better when I hear that ZH is not only banned from the Bank of America but also from every K-12 classroom in America.

Sat, 12/22/2012 - 11:55 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

The price of little-can is going up rapidly. Perhaps he elderly will have to eat low grade cat food, or even fight over a mouse with the neighbor's cat.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 23:55 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Tyler,

Yeh ..,.. but in 2008 BenDover didn't have his bazooka ready and well oiled.

The Fed owns 50% of outstanding bonds and who knows what % of MBS, might be time to overtly buy into Equities. Then insurance companies, retirees, everyone is "saved" by the Savior(s)....Obama / Bernanke.

Why ddin't anyone think of this before?

 

Sat, 12/22/2012 - 01:09 | Link to Comment smart girl
smart girl's picture

I understand how Operation Twist was bullish for stocks (i.e. trading dollars for euros and each buying up each other's stock market- how cozy-) but now we are left with the Fed buying Bonds and Mortgage backed securities. Unless banks want to borrow money and put it into stocks, (bonds seem preferrable) - we could have another crash. What better a way to fleece everyone, and herd them into "safe" securites like U.S. treasury bonds?

 

I'm upset about the NDAA ie. indefinite detention for U.S. citizens - chemtrails - flouride - 9/11 - fema camps - you name it right now.

Sat, 12/22/2012 - 02:30 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Markets and Macro/  {Horse Shit and Central Banking} sounds better.

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