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November Disposable Income, Durable Goods Soar: Sandy's Fault?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Something funny happened on the way to another "it's all Sandy's fault" justification for economic data misses today: it flipped. Because while in November, Personal spending was expected to surge above personal spending (which printed up 0.4%, in lined with expectations), instead what the BEA - best known for producing such accurate series as the US GDP - reported is that Personal Incomes soared by a whopping 0.6% in November, double the expectations and compared to a 0% print in October. The reason? "Private wage and salary disbursements increased $41.1 billion in November, in contrast to a decrease of $16.3 billion in October.  The October decrease in private wages and salaries reflected work interruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy, which reduced wages and salaries by $18.2 billion at an annual rate." And the stunning data did not end there: real Disposable Income soared by a whopping 0.8% following a drop of -0.1% in October. As the chart below shows, this was the biggest monthly surge in Real Disposable Income in years. The result of all this is that savings, which would have otherwise dropped to a fresh 5 year low, rose to 3.6%. And concluding the wonderful data in the month when the impact of Sandy was to be most acute, we got Durable data, which blasted through the roof, if only on a Seasonal Adjusted basis: with Durable Goods rising 0.7%, on expectations of 0.3%, and the last month revised from 0.0% to 1.1%, while Capital Goods orders non-defense ex-aircraft surged 2.7% on expectations of an unchanged print (with the highest expectation being 1.0%), with the last one revised from 1.7% to 3.2%. (Of course, non-seasonally adjusted durable goods data plunged but who's counting).

So... more hurricanes? Also, does this mean the unemployment print for December will be 7% and just 0.5% away from QE ending (/jk).

Personal Savings:

Read Disposable Income:

US Capital Goods orders non-defense ex-aircraft: the Sandy-renaissance in October and November is unmissable.

 

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Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:02 | 3086411 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

After 30+ years of working, I don't ever recall having any income I can dispose of.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:05 | 3086419 AU5K
AU5K's picture

They can make the data show whatever they want via seasonal adjustments and other econometric fixes.  Hide the decline.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:15 | 3086462 Killtruck
Killtruck's picture

Just so we're all on the same page - looking just at the statistics, no one has any fucking clue what's going on, right?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:31 | 3086514 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

This actually should not be a surprise to anyone.    Most of the south shore of LI is in the process of spending their insurance settlements, FEMA grants, and SBA loans.    Contractors, plumbers, electricians and the like in LI are having the best months of their lifetimes. Presumably, the NJ shore is similar.   

The greatest/worst irony is all of this is that all the insane GM channel-stuffing has been converted into near-genius strategic inventory builds ahead of Sandy.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 11:16 | 3086698 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

$41 billion worth?  In one month?  Riiiiight.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 11:56 | 3086923 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

So, Bastiat was wrong, and broken windows DO work?!

Where's my crowbar? I'm gonna improve the economy one bay window at a fucking time.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 12:01 | 3086951 CynicLaureate
CynicLaureate's picture

From the government economist's point of view, absolutely: if you only measure window production, broken windows are a stimulus.

Ask people who've lost everything in the hurricane (or shopkeepers with broken windows), and you get a different answer.

 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:45 | 3086576 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

It's all cost of living wage increases. (a 3% fucking raise, comes every December) it doesn't mean shit unless your are a libtard looking for moar lies..

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:02 | 3086412 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

bloomberg wishes he could have a hurricane like that every week. money grubber

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:04 | 3086415 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

No need to make a house payment when you don't have a house anymore.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:07 | 3086424 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

niggas bought a lot of chinese generators..   plus all that O.T.  police and fire tacked on.. I'm surprized income wasn't higher.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:13 | 3086455 pepperspray
pepperspray's picture

Yo momma so fat we roll her 4 times a year for seasonal adjustment

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:22 | 3086483 Orly
Orly's picture

Yo momma so fat, I had to take a bus just to get on her good side.

Sheeee...her shadow weighs fifteen pounds!

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:40 | 3086552 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Peak rimshot?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:06 | 3086429 Samsonov
Samsonov's picture

Hilarity on CNBC at the moment.  Jim Cramer is bitching because there's no deal on the fiscal cliff and he's lashing out at the politicians.  He actually declared that the country, "hasn't seen this much partisanship since 1861, and how did that work out!"  Poor Jim.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:10 | 3086442 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

is the gubbermint supposed to get out of the way of big business or central plan the economy? i get confused sometimes.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:07 | 3086430 HD
HD's picture

Cramer is on CNBC wearing a Steve Harvey purple suit back-pedalling his little heart out...

God bless is SEC investigated little heart.

http://upscalemenswear.com/images/Background/harvey%20model%202.JPG

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:07 | 3086431 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Disposable income?  Whats that?  Is that like disposable diapers?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:07 | 3086432 northerngirl
northerngirl's picture

They will figure out another way to justify more printing regardless of the unemployment number.  The addict always promises to stop. 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:10 | 3086440 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

CNBC IS SAYING WE ARE GOING OVER THE FISCAL CLIFF....PREPARE FOR THE AMERICAN AUSTERITY RIOTS....ALSO DOWNGRADES AND DOLLAR DEVALUATION

http://investmentwatchblog.com/cnbc-is-saying-we-are-going-over-the-fisc...

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:11 | 3086446 youngman
youngman's picture

No one I know is expanding...we are all watching the fiscal cliff......thinking am I going to pay this or that....its so confusing no one is spending...but maybe thsi was end of the world spending...lol...

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:21 | 3086482 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

The "Real Disposable Income" chart is interesting.  The trend is clearly up.

Why is this?  Is this due to deflationary pressures lowering retail prices?  Is it because of the trend toward lower prices for some consumer goods such as electronics?

What's the 'splanation?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:25 | 3086496 Frastric
Frastric's picture

Nah, it must be a conspiracy to induce the brainless sheeple to squeeze in one last spending spree before the shit hits the fan after the fiscal cliff.

Personally I think we're going off the cliff just so the politicians have an excuse for why the USA entered recession.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:36 | 3086534 pods
pods's picture

Or because they are printing $$ like there is no tomorrow?

pods

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:25 | 3086495 edb5s
edb5s's picture

I guess there is too much going on in the equity markets today.  Someone forgot to lay the smackdown on PMs.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:28 | 3086507 Defenestratus
Defenestratus's picture

Well I can tell you why my income surged in November...

 

I cashed in on all the fucking PTO I had saved up that I couldn't take during the year because my company has let go of all the competent people and left me managing a bunch of untrained animals to try and turn into a productive business unit.

 

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:31 | 3086519 1000yrdstare
1000yrdstare's picture

Personally I think we're going off the cliff just so the politicians have an excuse for why the USA entered recession.

 

Entered Recession? I do not believe we have ever left it........

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:35 | 3086529 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

So that's what all those evil companies do.....distribute extra dividends that raise disposable income.

 

Decemeber will look great too.

 

January? Payback time.

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 10:48 | 3086586 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

Are guns now considered durable goods?

Fri, 12/21/2012 - 14:21 | 3087555 StoleYourMoney
StoleYourMoney's picture

They will be revised a lot lower next month

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