The Ultimate Global Risk Matrix - In Seven Dimensions

Tyler Durden's picture

Sometimes it takes 60 pages to describe where we have been this year; on other occasions it takes 28 pages to describe where we are going and why. However, BBVA (via Constantin Gurdgiev's True Economics) have managed to condense the state of risk in our global markets down to seven critical dimensions (and into one table). From Macro (GDP and inflation) to Fiscal, Liquidity, and Credit Growth, the following matrix is your must-have guide for this new-year's cocktail party circuit. You're welcome...



Source: BBVA research (via True Economics blog)

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DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Peru gets off pretty lightly, all things considered, on THAT graphic.  I might quibble with the above "rule of law" rating though, justice can be hard to get down there.


I would agree that their high exchange rate is a problem for exporters, but for importers (like Ameru), "no hay ningun problema!"

NotApplicable's picture

Well, it's blue, therefore it must all be cool!

IPA's picture

There is an old story about the invention of the chessboard, in which the inventor as his reward asks for one grain of wheat on the first square, two on the second, four on the third, and doubling until all 64 squares are full. The seemingly modest request adds up to many times more than all the wheat the world has ever produced. The purpose of the story is to teach about our inability to grasp the impact and unsustainability of accelerating increases in anything, particularly in the final stages. Even when more than half of the squares have been filled the inventor’s request still seems manageable. It is only when it is too late that its impossibility is realized.

Muppet of the Universe's picture

HEY TYLERS! Can you make a bigger version of this map with more countries? 

Or point me in the correct direction as to how to take this map's algo and apply it to other nations? 

Greatly appreciated if you do!! 

Svendblaaskaeg's picture


from link: "In recent months, we have seen the news from climate scientists become exponentially worse..."

recent months?? - who cares, weather is not climate


Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past
By Charles Onians
Monday 20 March 2000

"According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.

David Parker, at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Berkshire, says ultimately, British children could have only virtual experience of snow. Via the internet, they might wonder at polar scenes - or eventually "feel" virtual cold.


Report: Global warming stopped 16 years ago:






urwright's picture

dude - wake up

it is all about reverting to the mean in the game of dictating what that mean is

this graphic is a joke and it is on all of US

looking at this and speaking to anything it is trying to say is only part of your slavery into your stolkholm syndrome

if you ignore something does it not go away? charting crimes against capital is still a crime no. will be soon if Tyler does not show his face soon - or is there an agenda here....

DoChenRollingBearing's picture


snarfle, hick, unkhh, roll, shuffle, snarfle, mmh


urwright's picture

okay - we'll give it to ya

yiu know more about Peru than the color blue - told Tyler to change that one for the expert - should be updated when you wake up - your welcome

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Zzzzzzz, gert, erp!

Thanks!  Merry Christmas!

rumph, roll, hrmph


ball-and-chain's picture

I'm just expecting more of the same bullshit.

Slow growth for America.

A slowing China.

A contracting Europe.

A debt-ridden Japan.

Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

urwright's picture

so i could bust this out in a room full of series 7 qualified criminals and look cool?

how cool would i sound if i said Tyler personally gave it to me?

how cool would it be to say i understand risk based on colored lines and dark blue boxes?

how cool would it be to tell everyone on this sheet of paper is the basis of how the world is run?

how cool would it be to know that everything of value is based on collateral that no one in the room or on the sheet of paper has?

wow - how cool

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Could corruption and rule of law be overly optimistic in the USA rankings?

urwright's picture

they paid a kickba... i mean a fine to get that changed.

just like all the other boxes that are not dark blue


Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

The beauty of American law is its malleability.  Just ask Lloyd Blankfein, Hank Paulson, Robert Rubin or Jamie Dimon.

urwright's picture

beauty or down right disgustingnessly repugnantality

just ask anyone who got a ticket from a red light camera or doin time for a joint

urwright's picture

an excellent point particularly if you are following/admiring/working towards the same ends...

gjp's picture

Unbelievable, really.  Clearly an American source put this together.  US is the mother of all risks.  If it is not the most corrupt, its corruption is on the largest scale because it is funded and facilitated by the world's greatest money-from-nothing machine.

Montecarlo's picture

Evidence: GM Bondholders, Corzine, Solar panel makers, NDAA, yada yada yada...

Landrew's picture

Great another MORON who thinks 8% unemployment is acceptable ha! Falling wages and 10's of millions working part time is acceptable via the matrix. NO thanks only 1%ers would think this matrix means anything good.

francis_sawyer's picture

That sample right there was found on Monika Lewinsky's dress...

TheEmperor's picture

Riddle me this:

Can the Cliff/Sequestration terms be mute now that Defense has their bill passed, needing only the prez big 'O' stamped on it?

Does this not mean that some kind of cliff resolution is baked in now ?  Barry calls from the 19th hole and says we can extend all till early next Year? 

Merry Christmas All!

From Germany With Love's picture

Germany looking quite good.

And here's the problem with this matrix: It obviously doesn't figure in interdependencies when determining individual entries. If it did, Germany would look much worse.

urwright's picture

so the chart is actually helping vultures determine which dead meat is best to prey on

wow - who woulda thunk?

if jubalee comes to just one of these places or gold becomes $ then what is this scribble worth?

and folks think Christians are gullible...

Hulk's picture

The graph is just a pixelation of "We're fucked"

earleflorida's picture

'the 11th dimension of esoteric compounded interest?'      [*countries]

CFR to the rescue as GE [Morgan/ Rockefeller 'quasi-entity' sets up shop in Myammar/ Burmese?] 'Let Freedom Ring?!'

Ps. The USSR's growing pains ping the globalist myopic peripheral vision...

AynRandFan's picture

"Democracy is impossible in a capitalist system. Capitalism is the realm of injustice and a tyranny of the richest against the poorest. Rousseau said, 'Between the powerful and the weak all freedom is oppressed. Only the rule of law sets you free.' That's why the only way to save the world is through socialism, a democratic socialism... [Democracy is not just turning up to vote every five or four years], it's much more than that, it's a way of life, it's giving power to the people... it is not the government of the rich over the people . . ."

Hugo Chávez, June 2010

Sound familiar?

earleflorida's picture

the circle of life... so-- in your notes, please note... 'That Pakistan is on the verge of a Civil War'-- ain't good for Afghanistan? jmo

Rusty Diggins's picture
Rorschach test...  I see a monkey with FRNs flying out its butt.
OldPhart's picture

How cum we ain't heard much about Croatia?  According to this, they're pretty much toast.

Venerability's picture

Another big strike on tap in Latin America. Copper could actually get boost next week, no matter what happens in DC.

Cunnial's picture

They forgot Zimbabwe...