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At Least One Market Is Open

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Aside from the occasional deranged FX algo which today has decided to take out all its pent up binary anger on the GBPUSD, everything else today is closed. Everything, except, of course, for InTrade which come holiday, rain or apocalypse, is a true OTC market and is open all the time 24/7, non stop. Of particular interest is InTrade's market on "The US debt limit to be raised before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012" which moments ago once again came closer to reflecting reality and not the clueless gibberish of "expert" political pundits, and plunged to a contract low 10.1% probability (and price) which considering the late stage in the game, and that at this point the Fiscal Cliff is beyond any 2012 resolution, let alone the debt ceiling, is 10.1% too high (as forecast here nearly two months ago). And like a true market, one can naked short on InTrade. So for all the habitual gamblers out there just itching for some global futures market to reopen somewhere: have at it (but mind the brief squeeze at the next appearance of the "we have a deal" rumor, only to be refuted by the sad political reality of this country moments later). 

 

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Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:18 | 3094778 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I'm putting everything on red 22.

<Don't worry, the Fed's got my back.>

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:46 | 3094830 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I'm going with black 11,  This investing stuff is fun and easy.  Anyway, I heard that falling over the fiscal cliff is "priced in."

Merry Christmas, brother Cog.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 14:01 | 3094866 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Everything is priced in......right up until it isn't.

Happy Holidays to you as well brother Cdad.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 17:12 | 3095211 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well, everybody put everything on black 4 years ago and with the last president election.
In roulette, black is a good colour, but that doesn't mean you can beat the system with a system. In the end, the house always wins and you lose.
Have a free drink and some free chrimp on the buffet...

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 17:50 | 3095262 THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

mmmmm.... chrimp

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 14:56 | 3094978 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Odds the Obama family wasted $25 million in tax payer dollars just today alone in Hawaii.. 99.7%!

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 17:47 | 3095257 ball-and-chain
ball-and-chain's picture

I want to bet on Ben Bernanke's man-tits.

They will continue to squirt milk in the form of qe for many years to come.

Count on it.

http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2012/12/yesterday-i-hiked-five-miles-to-my.html

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 09:21 | 3095911 Eugend66
Eugend66's picture

Nah, try 13!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OlTBFmYf7yU , Johnny Cash - Thirteen, less than 3 mins. 2013 and all the rest.

"... And the black turned into red ...."

Merry Xmas.

Peace.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:26 | 3094781 tickhound
tickhound's picture

Whatever happened to "CHRISTMAS OPEN THREAD"  or at least HOLIDAY THREAD should we hafta tip toe for the overly sensitive.

Kyle Bass again Tylers??? 

Happy Holidays, bitchez!

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 16:02 | 3095092 Midas
Midas's picture

I hope nobody missed one of the best articles of the year:

David Collum's

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-22/2012-year-review-free-markets-rule-law-and-other-urban-legends

 

Tylers-  Have you considered running some of the gems multiple times to make sure they don't get lost in the mountains of info here?

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:21 | 3094782 Muppet of the U...
Muppet of the Universe's picture

In intrade, can one simply bet both sides of the rail when chances are low and high?

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:23 | 3094788 unk1911
unk1911's picture

well also the bitcoin markets/exchanges are all open as well...

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 21:43 | 3095521 YungHungAndLegal
YungHungAndLegal's picture

Don't forget the CFTC, in an attempt to protect me from my self, just shut down Intrade to all US citizens.  Happy hanukka Gensler from everyone at ZH. <sarc>

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:28 | 3094796 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 That pussy Obama isn't going to do anything. He's just sitting on the porch in Oahu twiddling his thumbs. He gets his tax hike in a week and, everyone gets gets screwed in the (payroll tax) pooch in January.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:33 | 3094808 The Master
The Master's picture

That's not fair. He's not "just sitting on the porch in Oahu twiddling his thumbs."

He's golfing.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:37 | 3094815 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Semantics/ He's golfing at the 19th hole, which is probably his back porch.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 16:03 | 3095093 Midas
Midas's picture

He might be taking care of some grass.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 20:24 | 3095242 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 He's the "greens keeper" Choom-Bama(gold)... Midas that made laugh hard, you kick ass!

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:36 | 3094813 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The central planners schemed they weren't going to come to a fiscal cliff agreement at least before 12/12/12 when Bernanke said that he would juice QE a bit if we went off the fiscal. QE5, right around the corner.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 13:48 | 3094837 tooriskytoinvest
tooriskytoinvest's picture

Nassim Taleb & El-Erian & Boston Consulting Group: Stabilization Won't Save Us From Economic Turmoil, The Long End Is Going To Be More Volatile And More Dangerous. As Soon As Asset Price Rises – Fuelled By High Levels Of Leverage – Levelled Off, The Model Imploded.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/nassim-taleb-el-erian-boston-consulting-g...

 

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 14:02 | 3094868 amanfromMars
amanfromMars's picture

As a sure-fire future markets leader, do C42 Quantum Communication Control Systems possess intrinsic priceless value ..... colossal net worth?  Worthy of a speculative punt from AdvenTuring Capitalists? :-)

And ignore Poe's Law if it is a red herring.:-)

 

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 14:04 | 3094875 negative rates
negative rates's picture

There is a sucker born every minute, and most of them reside HERE!

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 17:44 | 3095253 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I can think of $16+Trillion reasons why you're wrong...

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 21:13 | 3095487 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Jack-O-Lanterns

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 14:48 | 3094964 Cult of Criminality
Cult of Criminality's picture

"(but mind the brief squeeze at the next appearance of the "we have a deal" rumor, only to be refuted by the sad political reality of this country moments later)".

Right

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 14:59 | 3094984 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

i dont get i took a naked short, ie sell, and it said it wanted $2000+ and  all would get if i won was $60. sure its not likely to happen, but do i only have to pay if  i lose?

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 15:24 | 3095039 Herdee
Herdee's picture

You can "Naked Short"? That's creating electronic counterfeit stock or endless temporary liquidity.Oh,I get it,we'll just forget to borrow them legit and we'll settle later (or when we get around to it)when you end up driving it into bankruptcy.If you can cellar box-em and drive them bankrupt,you never have to settle.Right?Is that why tens of thousands of small business innovators have left and gone to China?Ya,I know,it's all B.S. that the Regulators and the Clearing Houses are linked to organized crime.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 15:56 | 3095085 TheMactus
TheMactus's picture

Sorry to spoil this one fellas,


We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no longer allow US residents to participate in our real-money prediction markets.

 

Effective immediately, US residents can no longer open an Intrade account. Existing US customers are asked to close out all open predictions and request a withdrawal for the final balance of their Intrade accounts before December 23, 2012. Further information on this process can be found HERE. We strongly urge all US customers to read this information immediately and begin the process of closing their accounts.

 

We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment to our US customers, but this in no way signals the end of Intrade in the US. In the near future we'll announce plans for a new exchange model that will allow legal participation from all jurisdictions – including the US.  We believe this new model will further enhance Intradeposition as the leading prediction market platform for real time probabilities about future events.

 

For our non-US customers, we will continue to offer real-money prediction markets. In the coming weeks and months we plan to implement a number of improvements to the Intrade website. These include expanding our market categories to include sports, adding more convenient funding options and a new and improved trading interface. We'll keep you posted on these initiatives as they develop.

 

Kind regards,

 

Carl Wolfenden

Exchange Operations Manager

Intrade – The Prediction Market

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 16:32 | 3095142 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Debt limit and gold.  Correlation or cause?

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 16:40 | 3095154 Venerability
Venerability's picture

Well, now we know what happened to JPM's London Whale:

He bets even bigger on InTrade. Probably Mr. Adoboli, too.

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 18:48 | 3095319 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

Until inTrade gets with the program and accepts bitcoin, you can make bets here:

http://betsofbitco.in/list

A growing number of poker sites and other betting venues have. Nice to have a currency that isn't stomped on by central governments.

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 09:09 | 3095902 Eugend66
Eugend66's picture

I rarely come with an red arrow on any site. I gave you one. Fuck poker sites and nail parlors. And loan shark businesses. And Bitcoin!

Wed, 12/26/2012 - 15:42 | 3096864 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I'm sure you're a paragon of rational thought. My, look at how well you constructed your counter-argument.

Did you get lost on the way to the liquor store?

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 20:21 | 3095432 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I love Intrade/  Too bad so sad. The CFTC (blonde ponytail) just quashed intrade to U.S. customers. We knew this a month ago/http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/betting-site-intrade-shuttin...

 

Old news. 

Tue, 12/25/2012 - 20:51 | 3095460 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Didn't they start doing like a fiscal cliff kinda thing about 3.5 years ago when the banksters began to take Greece down? And then back before that with Argentina.

But and Since the banksters and NWO own most of the corporate shares why would the stock market go down. It should go up once all non banksters are out. They don't have to play by the rules of fundamentals. They have to merely agree among themselves that prices should be fixed at whatever they choose.

I don't think the market will go down unless the financial system freezes again.

Four more years.

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