Retail sales, as I expected, have turned out to be much weaker than what the National Retail Federation (NRF), and other analysts, previously presumed. The excuses for the weakness, however, were just as much off the mark as the original analysts' estimates. According to an AP article:
"Shoppers were buffeted this year by a string of events that made them less likely to spend: Superstorm Sandy and other bad weather, the distraction of the presidential election and grief about the massacre of schoolchildren in Newtown, Connecticut.
The numbers also show how Washington's current budget impasse is trickling down to Main Street and unsettling consumers. If Americans remain reluctant to spend, analysts say, economic growth could falter next year."
While these excuses may play well in the media, in reality, the fiscal cliff, end of October storm and the school shooting had very little to do with retail sales on a nationwide basis. However, what does have much to do with the level of retail sales are incomes.
The chart of day shows the annual change in retail sales which is a very "noisy" data set. I have smoothed that data with a 3-month moving average (black line) and overlaid the annual change in wages and salaries (blue line).

Not surprisingly when wages and salaries are growing at a slower rate there is a corresponding weakness in the level of retail sales. The peak in wages and salaries occurred in early 2011 with the subsequent growth rate trending weaker. This corresponds with the economy which has continued to muddle along at a very anemic pace.
While it may be likely that the damage from Hurricane Sandy may have soured some sales, particularly in the North East, it is unlikely to have had much of an effect on the retail sales nation wide. For majority of America the "fiscal cliff" debate largely goes unnoticed as it remains a battle between the White House and the "rich" - for the rest the country it is more of a distraction from the things that matter like "Honey Boo Boo" and "Housewives Of Whereever".
What does matter though, as stated above, are incomes. The decline in incomes, which can be seen in the roughly 1.2 million person increase in food stamp participation from June to September, is why retail "holiday" spending is weaker. With credit limits reduced, incomes stagnant and real costs of living on the rise - it is not surprising that retail sales are far weaker than the NRF's holiday season predictions.

While the economy is likely to continue to muddle along in the months ahead, largely due to the impact of $85 billion a month in liquidity from simultaneous QE programs, the strain on the average consumer will remain. This is due to the spread between the annual change in real wages and headline inflation.

This spread deteriorates purchasing power and drags on savings. Of course, you don't need to go much further than your own pocketbook to realize that your cost of living has increased markedly over the last few years even as reported inflation remains low.
While the NRF still predicts that retail sales will clock in with a 4.1% annualized increase this may still be exuberant. We will have to wait until January to analyze the retail sales data for December, along with revisions for October and November, for a better assessment of the holiday shopping season. My best guess is that expectations are still too high and final numbers could have a negative impact on the retail sector.
I thought "Change" was supposed to be good...oh well, Thanks Obama and his owners!
I'm gonna take one of those fancy cruises with my Christmas bonus this year and blow the whole wad on one cruise:
http://cruises.united.com/sc.do?d=12/26/2012&d2=06/25/2015&i=855074&c=40...
No need to sell anything when there are plenty of 'excuses' to stuff the channel with...
Should've had a "FUCKIN'" sale.
Agreed, I like to stock up on fuckin every chance I get.
I heard that cnBSc had some anal-cysts on their Nielsen 0.06 point rating show that said retail experienced the big suck because people everywhere who were and always have been broke & living paycheck to paycheck (or EBT to EBT, credit card to credit card) didn't want to rack up lots of debt this year (as they have in every prior year, as in nothing would/could/did stop them) because they were hesitant due to their fears over the "fiscal cliff."
Bob Piss-anti even did a person-in-the-mall interview and a woman named Chiquita Jones told him she was only going to spend 1/2 as much because, and I quote, she "fears the potential tax and other financial repercussions that would flow from an inability to reconcile & pass legislation that would remove many of the uncertainties that currently impede the decisions of businesses and consumers alike when assessing their willingness and/or ability to procure discretionary goods and services, as well as determining what level of capital expenditures are presently justified."
"I'm a Chiquita banana, and I'm here to say....."
Isn't it funny how the phrase of the year seems to be, "You gotta be fucking kidding me!"
Don't overdo it! And bring rain gear...
I heard crap on the local news radio today. I don;t watch O TV. They said retail sales were down due to the hurricane, shootings or bad deals at stores. Nothing about the dear Mullah's depression and the total collapse in confidence when he won yet another rigged election like Chavez, Fidel, Kirschner, et al.
Remember the summer of recovery 2010 tour. They were going to generate 250-500k jobs a month. Bwahahahahah. And then fuckstick obama said, "I guess the shovel ready jobs weren't so ready." Which is not to say that I believe in the refucklicans either. Just sayin.
Not so shovel ready
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O55aRrvXtio
national scrapegoatism is at full blast! simple reasoning for simple minds........
I'm no Obama fan.
But this collapse was a long time in the making.
Obama is just performing clean up duties.
He's a slave to the banks and corporations--just like the rest of us.
http://www.angrysinner.blogspot.kr/2012/12/yesterday-we-went-to-burger-king-for.html
Barack is a slave? Sounds racist to me
A filthy racist?
Cool website ball-and-chain. If a bit repetitive. I too consider waiting for the world economy to collapse to be a hobby. It's fun, motivating, although simultaniously depressing and paranoia inducing. It's a give and take relationship.
who has the money to piss away on bullshit gifts anymore?
In my family, I noticed it was the most functional Christmas gift year, ever.
Even the camo lounge pants I got have multiple bennies. Especially when combined with the ammo received!
Well armed, hidin' in the oak trees, bitchez!
Wouldn't you like to be a retailer trying to make the rent and accounts reconcile in Feb after that Christmas-shopping almost non-event ... a lot of them are going to be hurting ... probably most were hanging-on for a big turnover in December.
I expect the warehouses didn't empty out much, and those ships full of plastic shit, pulling up to the dock right now, aren't going to sell all that quick. Well, except now we'll see cut-throat discounting, and credit-card companies dropping rates to attract some flow and extending no-pay periods into 2015.
I gave silver, a classy gift that cuts the system. What more could you ask for? There was much joy in giving, I can assure.
Fruit cakes can't be bought with food stamps ?
No, they only take campaign contributions.
Preferably cash, of course. Wrapped in tin foil.
how 'bout no disposable income?
I think Obama can legitimately take credit for gun sales. He's got that going for him.
Agreed. Did the indusrty donate to his campaign?
Do guns and ammo count as retail sales?
anybody that has any bulk ammo left has raised their popular caliber ammo prices anywhere from 20 to 40% in the last day or 2
A friend went to Gander Mountain the other day. They are big mega stores. He said they changed the store around in the past 9 months or so. The floor space is now 50% guns and ammo. The fishing dept has been cut back a lot. All guns and ammo. They supposedly have tables set up for people to do paperwork to buy guns because of the lines.
When the house of cards finally collapses, they might need some fishing gear too.
You can always use dynamite.
Do gold and silver count as retail sales?
I have money to spend, but it's more fun to go galt and watch it all burn.
Besides, god only knows how much we'll all be needing to pay for that free health care next year
Just saw a news flash, Aetna says healthcare premiums to double. Life is good. Wait until the sheeple get the new rates next year and then they can send out thank you notes to our dear leader and all who "represent" them. Happy New Year folks
People that lower Government statistics aren't counted.
some things are selling.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-01/chart-keeps-ben-bernanke-night
goldpricemodel 2013 projection
Oh, the weather again ... I like that one ... endless scope for lies and misrepresentation.
Fingers crossed Bernanke gets his inflation in 2013. Going to be great for retail sales next christmas.
Clusterfuck can't even begin to describe this crap anymore
"What do JC Penney, Mitsubishi Motors and Martha Stewart Living magazine all have in common? Each has earned a spot on the list of brands that will likely disappear in 2013."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/6-brands-that-will-likely-disappear-in-201...
BTW, did anyone else see car sales from Japan (exports mainly) DOWN 50% Q4 due to 'tension' with China.
I love the libtard media sh** about how Martha worked on Wall Street. She was a penny stock broker at a bucket shop in the 1960s (true). She dumped her hubby but kept his WASP name because her Polish name and very working class NJ background and town would not have impressed the WASPs in Connecticut and the wanna be WASPs leaving the Bronx like the cockroaches that they are/were.
when r yea gonna move away frm home?
wen r U gonna shut the fuk up, troll?
You consistently have utterly nothing to meaningfully contribute to the discussion except for your flippant and puerile snark.
did mommie fold your underwear right! enough milk and cookies in the frig 4 yea? when r u gonna get a job? u seem 2 really know it all. r u gonna write a book soon so all of us can b full of shit like u,
/
nothing meaningful here! just people that have run out of toilet paper and using their fingers instead!
They, JC Penny, had to know that with the advertising they did in 2012 and the complete change of marketing it was doomed to failure. It would be interesting to get a link to Pennys insider selling. Wonder how many shorts there are currently
Got to love the 'election' distraction excuse. Have a look at GDP in late 2008, pre-election, and the staggering post-election up-bounce, that halted the previous very sharp declines in activity. The bounce happened on the street and in internet sales right at that point.
The election distraction? I saw people who thought that if Romney won - they might get some time off from the gulag. They had some real "hope" and a little optimism. I saw it a lot.
When Bronco Islammy won through fraud - these people went back to gulag prisoner mentality and deep depression.
Pretty sad that we serfs think (thanks to the NWO) that living in New Jersey (Romney) was that much better than living in Dante's inferno (obammy hell). The NWO elites are evil evil evil.
The only thing most people are buying besides food is guns, ammo and mags.
The people who think things would be fine if only Romney had been elected make me laugh. Unless Ron Paul or an actual conservative won nothing would have changed.
These no talent assclowns are getting tiresome.
when r u running 4 office? your so fucking smart! put u in command and our troubles r over. u gotta move away frm home first............
Sonofabitch's mom didn't buy him a dictionary, or teach him the difference between typing and texting.
Evidently, she didn't send him to Charm School either.
Sheesh! Lay off the bath salts, dude.
Bend fucking over
Raising a Kid: $235,000…Before College
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100338117
Not if you can get the taxpaying slaves to foot the bill
make them work for college money. They'll choose better what to take after busting their ass & they'll have real work experience.
It is precisely as I have long hypothesized! People with lower incomes are unable to consume as much merchandise as those with higher incomes!
Watson! Come in here! Bring me a needle, it's time for my solution!
I would like to think that many people boycotted christmas like I did. My family already has everything it needs for the most part. We don't need more cheap icrap from China!
I didn't spend one cent I didn't have to in December. I plan to keep it that way in future.
But if I were a Christian, I'd outright black-ban all extraneous spending in December, simply as a heart-felt protest against the outrageous sacrilege of turning a major cult's holy-day into an excuse for exacerbating the lusts and desires for wonton greed and consumerism, just to fire-up debt-slavery 'growth', in order to make global-criminals a bit richer and more controlling in 2013. I'm always astonished that 'Christians' are so passive about that, when it (supposedly) goes to the very heart of what they are all about.
Kind of looks like they're full of shit and don't mean any of it. But whatever .. jus sayin.
You're preaching to the choir on this one. I can't stand the rampant unbridled consumerism on a supposedly holy period either. Christians are as hypocritical as any other human beings.
I am done with Debt peonage and if others my age feel the same way you can stick a fork in the global ponzi economy predicated on a continuous expansion of debt. Fuck you bankers! Fuck you in the ass with a chain-saw!!!!
people will only buy if there is a 50% off or more sign on the shelf. Then it all sells. That leaves the retailer with 10% margin at 50% off. Considering overhead has reached 50%+, it doesn't matter how much they sell, there is no profit.
But Amazon proved you don't need profit to be valued in the couple hundred+ P/E range. There is always room to grow if you can't make money. Somehow that comment isn't idiotic in the New Normal.
"There is always room to grow if you can't make money."
Precisely. The Amazon business model has proven to be both unprofitable and highly scalable. These are very desirable qualities in a .com enterprise.
Clearly the 99% halted their shopping, concerned the 1% may write fatter checks to uncle Sam next year.
There are 3 classes of people:
1) the .1% oligarch crony capitalists and insiders
2) the 49.9% taxpaying slaves
3) the 50% suckling on the government teets
One and three have two out-voted and out-moneyed
America's lost decades (emphasis on the plurality of "decade") began on March 10, 2000.
http://gold.approximity.com/since1968/DJIA_CPI-adj.png
we buy what we need not what they want us to buy! fuck you media pump jobs that feed the american people that you need a no no hair or a edge of glory or the millions of other useless crap that they are trying to sell! wake up america wal fart will own you all!
I have a serious question to ask of you all and I should have posted it earlier but you know how it goes. Here is the question:
If you had $100K in venture capital to start a small business in the U.S., what would that business be and where would you locate said business?
I have been in wholesale for some years so I understand the supply side but I am considering a start-up business for my wife to manage. She keeps talking about going back to college after the kids get a little older. I say fuck that college idea as she already understands profit/loss statements and we would have the c(r)apital straight up with no loans. Why piss that all away on "edukashun"?
Is it even worth it to pursue this idea of a start-up business anymore in the U.S.?
i think a combo pizza parlor/whore hse. would be a good bet, pizza parlor dwnstairs and whore hse. upseairs. truck stops would be the cash cow locations. what do u think?
Yes, that may be a nice little bread-'n-butter franchise to fall back on. But if you want real financial sickurity, and to "make a go of it", you need to get into human-trafficing, to feed into indentured-captive sex-sevitude, in order to lower your costs and to guard against high psychological and also physical burn-out, and the resulting desire to quit, which is such a PITA when using 'free' people.
i would b interested in your consulting services..............
Well, well, well; I have contracted the dreaded SandOverBeach disease. Since I currently have the disease known as SomeOvumBitch and no one has said it to you lately, I would like to respond to your posts in aggregate.
FUCK YOU
No charge for that consultation.
Open a gun shop or one of those We Buy Gold places.
i really like the gun shop idea! better than the pizza/whore hse. business plan...
I'm on the path to starting a brewery with two other people. So far it looks promising in our city. That being said, I think there will be a market for microdistillaries to take away market share from the big boys, especially if you live in an area that promotes local food/drink consumption. This is the path of microbreweries and I think will be the same for distillation once more people learn the craft well enough.
Hell, I've met people that have their own *brand* of liqour that they contract to distillaries abroad, and they turn around and sell them here in the states. They are essentially a marketing company.
Alcohol never dies, unless the government forbids it, but then you can always bootleg!
Home brewing supplies and know-how are marketable.
I can't open a brewery for the same reason that I can not open a tavern or a strip club. Microbrews around here are a saturated market. Keep us posted though on your progress as it does sound interesting. I really liked that Colorado specialty beer called "Bitch Creek". I am having trouble finding it now.
edit: Idaho beer.
If someone forced me, I might open a business. It's definitely an exercise in masochism these days.
How 'bout selling and/or fabricating hydroponic equipment in Colorado.
Room 101: I have thought of that and it could potentially be a great idea. That's too much "risk on" and the wife don't smoke.
I would start by asking yourselves a few questions: What are you good at? What do you like doing? Try to combine those into your business. Also, think about scalability and reproducability (the ability to leverage your efforts through employees or geographic expansion) and whether you want an exit plan. Certain kinds of businesses can be sold to other businesses - that's one type of "exit". (An IPO is another form of exit, though rare since congress totally fucked up the US IPO market with Sarbanes Oxley.) Is there something you can invent, license, or bring to market, that is unique or protectable? Building up a business takes a lot of thought and work. Make it something you are good at, have connections to, can protect, like doing, could teach other people to do, and can sell (if you want to) once you've built it up to several million dollars in revenues. Focus on sales early - find a need and offer to solve it for the customer. When you have some business activity going you can then look for more of the same or adapt to what the market is telling you. Keep expenses low at first but realize your investment in the business, in whatever form, is part of what will give you an edge over potential competitors. Once you have customers keep them happy and never give them a reason to leave you. Make them absolutely love doing business with you. Good Luck!
#1 gold refiner #2 silver refiner #3 selling emigration to Sweden, Canada & Brazil (not Belize) maybe Chile or Uruguay for those seeking a more relaxed life with less police-state. Choose your level of government intervention/taxes for now. Add any other states as needed which you think might be less hassle.
An upscale gun shop catering to yuppies, women and people less familiar with firearms would be huge. A large segment of the population is interested in learning about guns, gun safety and personal protection but they are intimidated by the big , outdoorsy hunting centric places and mummsy forbid they be seen in a pawn shop.
I would finally start a toy company that actually knows what it's doing and I'd do it right here in Pennsylvania too just as a big middle finger to every brainless snowflake idiot "entrepenuer" with no ideas who can't "build" anything without mommy government subsidizing them with my tax dollars. I've been working my way there very slowly on my own but it would be moving a hell of alot faster if I already had enough capital to do something in an environment where banks don't loan for anything but fraudulent transfer schemes. My other idea was a software company focusing on quality software but nobody wants that these days or else they wouldn't offshore everything to durkadurkaland and import H1Bs by the boatload.
I think Obama should change his name to Toby since he is owned by rich white people.
It's simple. I blame Sandy. Or Bush.
If I were a Sandy hurricane victim, or a family member of the Newtown tragedy, I would be out-of-control pissed off at the audacity of the media, or whomever, for blaming slumping Christmas sales on either of these events. That is so FUBAR I can't even get my mind around the fact someone would even say that outloud, or in print.
Obscene. That's what it is.
inner city aquaponics....grow the food where the people are....
growingpower.org
The good new is the price of hookers are down. BJ's are going for $25. Inflation adjusted its only $5.
Dem pour bitchez.
I like how lowering the gas prices to just gouging instead of uber rip off didn't do squat for sales. When you are broke you are broke. Credit card interest rates will keep that thing in your pocket for emergency's like food.
Jesus Christ look at those charts.
BTW, there is never ANY mention of "inflation" or "incomes" when thee Nationial Retail lobbyists who come on to Bloomberg or CNBS to talk about the holiday retail number (minus the stock line: "Well, gas is down so...that means the consumer will have more money to buy shit made in China!").