Consumer Confidence Plunges, Unadjusted New Homes Sales Slide To Lowest Since February

Tyler Durden's picture


Just as we saw with UMich, it appears the hope for change is wearing thin among the people. Today's Consumer Confidence data missed by its biggest margin in 7 months, dropped below the year's average, and saw the largest 2-month drop in over 15 months. All age cohorts lost confidence with the eldest most and it appears those earning over $35k are also beginning to worry (as those between $35k and $15k seem more confident). Over 40% expect stock prices to decline and it is expectations that have plummeted from a hope-filled 80.9 to a 13-month low of 66.5.



In other news, we got the November New Homes Sales report from the Census Bureau. On the surface the number was good, if a slight miss to expectations of 380K, printing at 377K, up from 361K in October, and "the highest in years." As we said on the surface. Because like the Initial Claims data earlier, where we subsequently learned that the DOL had to estimate the claims data of 19 states (!) as their labor offices were closed for the holiday, it is digging into the data that reveals the reality once more. Sure enough, on an unadjusted, unannualized basis, November saw a tiny 27K houses sold, of which just 2K in the northeast, and 3K in the Midwest. Furthermore, of these 27K actual new home sales, which by the way was the lowest number of home sales since February 2012, 9K were homes still under construction, and 8K were not even started, with just 10k homes completed and now sold. Digging further, on page 3 we found the dreaded (Z) designator in the $750,000 and over category, meaning that a negligible (taken to mean under 500 but usually implying 0) homes were sold in the $750,000 and higher price range. In fact, the only thing that really did soar was the number of homes for sale at the end of the period which rose to 151K: the highest since November of 2011. Yet magically the median month for sale since completion dropped to a tiny 5.3 months, down from 7.2 a year ago. It's a miracle what a few million mortgages in the "foreclosure stuffing" pathway will do to shadow and real inventory.

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Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:21 | 3098843 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

The only that matters is Wesbury saying that housing has bottomed.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 14:44 | 3099479 Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

And Barry Jerkoffholtz has been sending out newsletters for months saying housing has turned. 

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:30 | 3098867 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gosh, all that 'good news' window dressing for the year end goodtimes rally just futile.

Anyway, wait till the holiday retail spending numbers huge faceplant is released. I only gave presents of PM's.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:58 | 3098977 FreedomCostsaBu...
FreedomCostsaBuck-o-Five's picture

"We have green shoots, green shoots!!!! The less-bad bad news is good news!!!!

-Cnbc meme

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:29 | 3098880 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Can't ZH just rise above? 

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:30 | 3098881 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I work with consumers. They are unFUCKINGconfident. I got this chart called my paycheck that will show you such.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:40 | 3098928 adr
adr's picture

I sell to the stores that sell to consumers. They are not only unconfident, they don't even know what they are going to put on shelves in January because they didn't buy anything.

Seriously, my buyers all went on vacation in early December and didn't place orders with anyone. Corporates put in rules saying no new vendors and no new products. Existing vendors are all placed on replenishment. Which means replacing sold inventory only.

Try managing cashflow without knowing how much you will be getting on a weekly basis.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 13:34 | 3099255 Next to Arch Stanton
Next to Arch Stanton's picture

Two days before Christmas (Sunday), I was at Tanger Outlets near Myrtle Beach, SC.  Virtually empty mid-afternoon.  This is an outlet mall with plenty of heavy duty sales going on (not the Fuckin' kind though).  Employee at one store said its been like that all month.  You don't need headlines to know things are not good in retail land.



Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:30 | 3098882 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The fiat drug induced CONfidence in the Con Game is wearing off.

<Biden, call Pfizer on the bat phone stat.>

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:33 | 3098896 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

got past the election. That was all that mattered.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:38 | 3098887 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Looking forward to the consumer confidence numbers when the tax bite comes to everybody's wallet. 

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:32 | 3098888 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Hey, but per Kyle Bass the real estate market has hit a bottom.  Or maybe he just has a lot of MBS he needs to get rid of.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:32 | 3098889 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All I want to know is when the 'big correction' to 'drive lawmakers into 'action' (AKA 'theft') is going to happen? Tomorrow or Monday or what? 

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:32 | 3098891 Cursive
Cursive's picture

How do "they" know to drop the expectation to "70" when the last reading was 73.3?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:34 | 3098903 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

'The Aliens' will take care of the problem and buy up all those boxes. The NAR said so. Just you wait.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:36 | 3098910 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Shoppers having maxxed out their credit cards, paid for last minute gifts with cash. I eagerly await the next food stamps numbers.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:37 | 3098914 adr
adr's picture

It's ok. Real annualized new home sales are running at a sub 150k pace. I'm sure there is some real math out there that can magically make an extra 270k homes appear on vacant property with nobody actually building them.

We need a new word because farce doesn't cover it.

10k new homes actually sold. How many of them were sold to foreign speculators? How many were multi family units?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:37 | 3098917 classy_hopper
classy_hopper's picture

bad news are bad news again?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:40 | 3098923 Monedas
Monedas's picture

North Korea .... the first "Vegan State" !

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:41 | 3098932 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Showed up at a decent steak restaurant chain with family yesterday at noon.  Thought the place had closed their doors.  Literally 3 tables of customers.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:43 | 3098938 adr
adr's picture

So that is bullish for BAC because billions of credit card bills won't be paid next month, right? $18 a share lock?


May 2013 be the year of reckoning and the end of the Wall St. Ponzi

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 12:09 | 3099005 caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

ah, so it is said,so it is written! up down, up down!

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 12:10 | 3099006 chunga
chunga's picture


I'm so confident I'm going to start Christmas shopping for next year right now.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 12:43 | 3099108 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Ooops..I guess Ministry of Truth is off now that O is back in...

I dont know if the Truth sets you free, or that it pisses me off that these BS stats miraculously falls to earth when convenient.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 13:16 | 3099205 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Worse. Even SA new home sales were only back to 1982 levels and consumer confidence remains FAR BELOW AVERAGE!

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