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    05/30/2016 - 21:24
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Initial Claims Drop To 350K, Beat Expectations From Upward Revised Baseline

Tyler Durden's picture


Update: the BLS disclosed that it had to estimate the data for 19 states due to holiday office closures. Good enough for Ministry of Truth work.

In what is a traditional slowdown to the layoffs season in the week leading into Christmas, initial unemployment claims, dropped from an upward revised 362K (was 361K) to 350K, below a consensus print of 360K, and the lowest seasonally-adjusted number in nearly 5 years. The boost, of course, was all in the ARIMA X-12 seasonal adjustments, as the not seasonally adjusted number rose by 39K to 441K. Although in a world in which only Case-Shiller says to use its Non-Seasonally Adjusted print as a far more accurate indicator of concurrent data, nobody cares about the BLS pre-adjustment data. In fact, judging by the market response, nobody cares about BLS data anymore, period, with absolutely no response by the market following the Claims print. Perhaps the only realm, unfudged notable number was the jump in people claiming claims at the State level, which soared by 71K in the week ending December 8, to a 3.238MM total. This happened even the surge of those collecting EUCs finally ended, with just 4K new collectors of EUCs and Extended Benefits. The good news is that at least nothing is Sandy's fault, at least this week.

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Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:47 | 3098595 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Where's da free money!'....I think thats the only thing that's relevant at all now.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:51 | 3098602 Bullwinkle Moose
Bullwinkle Moose's picture

FedEx will be dropping by later today with a large box of cnotes. no signiture required

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:08 | 3098635 Water Is Wet
Water Is Wet's picture

I talked to a Fedex guy yesterday.  I asked him if he's been real busy the last few weeks.  He said something like, "There'd be days, but overall I expected it to be a lot busier than it has been."

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:05 | 3098603 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



'Where's da free money!'


I think it's under the Upward Revised Baseline...or the sofa cushions.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:52 | 3098606 Janice
Janice's picture

Jobs? Jobs? We don't need no stink'in jobs. Anyway wasn't Jobs one of those elites who died in a plane crash? No man, he invented the Internet. I thought Al Gore did that. Pass that doobie.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:05 | 3098628 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Who the hell needs 'jobs' when we now run on 'If there's any trouble, or whining from banksters, just print trillions'.....jobs are so 3 decades ago.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:35 | 3098906 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

The sad truth is that not even Jobs was creating jobs (in the US anyway, for non-robots), but that never stops them from repatriating the loot.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 13:25 | 3099234 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

And just in time for the January surge in unemployment claims!!!!


Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:49 | 3098599 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Seasonal adjustment (n.) a correcting factor used by state-controlled statisticians to manipulate the final results of a survey to more closely reflect the state's expected outcome.  See also: goal-seeked.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:52 | 3098745 pinqy
pinqy's picture

How is that possible when the seasonal adjustment factor is published weeks before? And why is the "manipulation" sometimes for the worse?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 15:43 | 3099619 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

let me correct that just a little.

Seasonal adjustment (n.) a correcting factor used by state-controlled statisticians to manipulate the final results of a survey to more closely reflect the state's desired outcome. See also: goal-seeked.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:53 | 3098607 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

So, are we supposed to pay any attention to numbers and graphs anymore? I'm just hoping for hyper-inflation because I want to earn a quadrillion dollars a year before I die. Its all about perception now.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:03 | 3098624 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



"Reported" numbers and graphs give you a sense of what the sheep are (told to be) thinking.  ZH, a bunch of other forensic sites, and good ol' common sense give you the real picture.  The difference is what I call the "reality gap" - a coarse indicator of how much time remains to prepare before we crossover the awareness membrane.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:18 | 3098657 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I get the impression that if enough people penetrate this awareness membrane, the cellular structure, as we know it, will cease to exist.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:54 | 3098608 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Most everyone quit working over 2 years ago. That doesn't mean anything.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:56 | 3098613 youngman
youngman's picture

Its the new normal.....up 100,000 since Bush....again watch the food stamp and Disability roles.....that is where the action is....this unemployment is just tempory until you get on the real gravy train...

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:56 | 3098615 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So anyway....3 days 'till economic disaster and we're back to 'broke'....yet everything seems pretty damn calm! I guess everyone knows 'The Messiah' will surely make it all OK.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:08 | 3098634 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Tis a sad day.....this is the day we tell all the Obama campaign workers there is no Santa Claus.


A moment of silence please.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:57 | 3098616 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Actually, at my work, they fired 175 people... just to get the christmass feeling going I guess..

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:57 | 3098617 adr
adr's picture

I wonder what bullshit they will pull for the first couple weeks in January when there are usually a couple million layoffs.

That's one hell of a seasonal adjustment this week to erase 100k layoffs. Considering there are usually fewer layoffs right before Christmas, the adjustment should have gone the other way.

Everyone could be laid off in the country and the BLS would show job gains for the month. Just like votes for Obama. Not a single person could have shown up at the polls, yet Obama would have still received 20 million votes.

It is pretty clear that the only thing politicians around the world care about is making stock markets going up. Even if it means sending the world into a deeper depression.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:03 | 3098625 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They're doing a pretty poor job of 'making stock markets go up' too....how long have we been at an average of DOW 13,100 for, around 12 months?

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:07 | 3098633 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Politicians care about getting re-elected.  As a rule, IMO, they are not savvy enough to comprehend how the economy works.  The people that take them to lunch and dinner tell them what to do.  As long as the politicians coffers are full, their egos are stroked, and the ballot boxes secure, they will not invest energy into understanding what they are doing (with a few exceptions, of course).

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 09:59 | 3098621 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



The number of people available to fire is declining.

All the "reported data" is going to be reset en masse while the muppets' attention is diverted toward the D.C. botox clan's post-last-ditch effort to resolve the "cliff."  The January differencing on the ARIMA X-12 will be an ugly one, because it's necessary to reset ALL of the baselines for 2013 in order for the cataclysm to appear like a recovery.

The end draws near.  It's starting to smell, methinks.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:03 | 3098626 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

Comfortably Numb.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:25 | 3098675 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



Comfortably Numb is the state of the Sheep.  The rest of us are On the Run, but Fearless of the Several Species of Small Furry Animals occupying the hallowed halls of D.C.  Dr. Bernanke proclaims Welcome to the Machine as he unveils the Print-o-Matic 5Trillion that will bring prices right to The Great Gig in the SkyTime is on our side, but we operate in the underground, as One of These Days the elite will lose control and the drones will come a-knockin.  Seamus (that's the dog) will alert us to Run Like Hell, but we are prepared, so we hunker down and Have a Cigar, while the formely-civil Mudmen bludgeon one another over things once taken for granted.  We hear the cries of Careful with that Axe, Eugene! as the Dogs of War are unleashed. 

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 12:15 | 3099026 Abaco
Abaco's picture

A tip of my pink hat to you!

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:04 | 3098627 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Believe nothing from this goverment, these numbers are more lies and deception to set the stage for the cliff so when it goes over the Liar in Chief can tell the sheeple that he had things turned around and it was the Republican dogs that let it crash!

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:06 | 3098630 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gotta turn in the Obamaphones...it's Bushs fault!

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:16 | 3098653 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

I fear that both wings of the progressive movement AKA R & D wish to go over the cliff as niether has the resolve to cut a damned thing.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:45 | 3098713 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Nothing to fear except fear itself, right? As long as they can convince enough people to not fight the future, but to embrace it, we will all be good. No reason to fear losing your job cause we got extended unemployment and food stamps and disability. And we ain't broke cause we still have credit cards. Ben can print and what he don't print we can just take away from those that don't really need it. No reason to fear when we have revenge to work in our favor. Just get rid of all those idiots that keep suggesting the standard accounting rules should apply and get on with this party!

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:20 | 3098661 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Actually many people have taken their business casual to avoid taxes and insurance alltogether. Welcome to Act 1 of Greece American Style...

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:48 | 3098724 cavsgt
cavsgt's picture

8,803,335: Another New Record for Disability—Up 975 Per Day Under Obama

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 12:22 | 3099040 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Yeah, those 7M blind people are prolly fakin'

I mean, at $5B dollars, that could really make a difference in the $1T budget deficit. LOL

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:49 | 3098732 pinqy
pinqy's picture

How are we supposed to take seriously any article about the UI claims report when the author doesn't even know which agency produces it?

BLS does not and never has produced the weekly UI claims report, but every week Tyler Durden falsely claims they do.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 10:54 | 3098755 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Gallup puts underemployment at 17.3% The crap from Washington is like trying to win a yaght race towing a sea anchor.


Oh, and a lot of the crap that went into this weeks report was a guestimate since a lot of state "civil servants" were out on vacation last week and could not provide numbers.

Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:33 | 3098894 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture


Thu, 12/27/2012 - 11:26 | 3098869 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I cannot care how many people desperately clung to shit jobs this Christmas, because only aggregate income is meaningful to any kind of recovery.

We cannot Wal-Mart greet our way to future growth.

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